Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

War cannot be sugar coated!

The video shows the destroyed Retroville shopping mall in Kyiv, following an overnight missile strike.

According to Prosecutor General's Office, at least eight people were killed.

Video: Proof of war in Ukraine/Telegram

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505815443340156930?t=zvh0khy-QjINGIzODUQMxA&s=19

@JamieNorthlife , not going to tell you to stop watching anything you want to watch, but the problem with social media videos is that it can be difficult to know exactly who/where/what you are watching, so watch if you want but just be aware that it might not be quite what it seems.

Anders Östlund @andersostlund
I know Retroville well. It's was a fairly new shopping mall and it had a nice ambience. Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine's economy for good. Make it impossible to live in Ukraine. Russia is fighting a war against the Ukrainian people.

@dibly

This is so awful, feel like the girl in the red coat in Schindler’s List shouting goodbye Jews. How can we stand by and watch without acting? It’s unconscionable

What action do you want to see then?

'We must do something' is one of the most dangerous sentences there is.

Unless of course you can describe roughly what that 'something' is, and why it stands a decent chance of improving anything, with very low chance of making it worse.

DuncinToffee I don't know what to say after watching that. Words seem trivial. Even though I don't want escalation, it does make me think fuck it, let's go in there and get the bastards doing this.

@ClaudineClare

The idea of sugar coating or sanitising this, i dont think helps because it allows people to pretend it's not real and not happening

No poster as far as I can see has suggested sugar coating or sanitising things, RTB.

They want to tone police because its making them anxious.

Yet I'm accused of being in the wrong and 'attention seeking' or 'scaring' people.

Go watch netflix then.

I can't get my head around the utter self absorption at this point.

This is about a war which is escalating before our eyes. It will get worse.

Too many people seem to be holding onto the idea of there suddenly being a happy ending.

Either people want to know about whats happening or they don't. If you are struggling to deal with events, this isn't going to improve in the near future.

I remember the news reporting from Bosnia on tv every night when a preteen / teenager. It was relentless. For years. This is going to get grimer and the politics more difficult and hard to justify being bystanders.

Especially when stuff from Mariupol inevitably starts to get widely reported. Which it will.

People hanging on my every word are stupid, to put it bluntly. If they are looking to me to somehow post positive stuff, and be completely and utterly measured stuff they are out of their tree.

I reserve the right to get upset, get angry, to despair, to be anxious myself. Because I'm human. Giving me a 'public flogging' in personal attacks directed solely at me is grossly unfair.

I wont comment on it again and if it happens again im just going to ignore it.

Tbh, last night i went to bed early, partly because i did need time out and im stunned at the shit this morning.

@Yeahthat

Recent op-ed in the Washington Post by China's Ambassador to the US hardly demonstrated unwavering support for Russia:

On Ukraine, China’s position is objective and impartial: The purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously; and all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.

I think the line about Ukraine's territorial integrity is important. I wonder if it could be a further sign that the tide is turning there.

The line on territorial integrity is exactly what one would expect China to say since that's the line they've been trotting out on Taiwan since times immemorial - it remains an integral part of China etc etc. So this sadly may not mean all that much. OTOH the "legitimate security concerns" directly mirror Russian talking points, its shorthand for a Yalta type world with some actors' zones of influence overriding smaller countries' sovereignty.

@PaperTyger
What @mpsw says is correct. I am ex-artillery. As they say, the Russian artillery is not likely to have FOPs over the front line because they would be easily spotted and destroyed. On exercise, we would move a battery into position overnight and nobody would see or hear a thing until mid morning. But in Ukraine now not much will move without getting identified. It is possible to land light guns into forward operations by helicopter, but that would not work in Ukraine for the same reason. The Russians could be using drones for target identification, but it is not clear what capacity in UAVs the Russian army has. Suffice to say most of the shelling is going to be longer range and indiscriminate including MLRS and that fits into the Russian terror narrative. It is what they do. Modern artillery includes air defence systems also.

Tanks are close range infantry support. They operate as line of sight, so a tank crew will fire at a visible infantry position, other tanks or strategic buildings or equipment. The longest tank on tank kill was in the 1991 Gulf War, IIRC, and that was about 4,000 metres, but in a desert environment with good visibility.

@ClaudineClare

DuncinToffee I don't know what to say after watching that. Words seem trivial. Even though I don't want escalation, it does make me think fuck it, let's go in there and get the bastards doing this.

I know Claudine

So many civilian buildings have been targeted, this is a genocide and Russia have form for it.

RTB, I am sorry you are upset, but you post extensively on this thread. People are occasionally going to disagree with you or challenge you.

Too many people seem to be holding onto the idea of there suddenly being a happy ending

I don't think anyone here is stupid enough to think this will have a happy ending. Plenty of us fully remember Bosnia.

@TargusEasting do you think the Russian navy are playing any part in the bombardment ?

Regarding Mariupol words fail me. Those extracts someone posted are harrowing unbelievable to think 2022 & this is happening. I must have been so naive to think war was behind us all & people knew war wasn’t the answer. How wrong was I. Surely something needs to happen soon, before the rest of Ukraine becomes like Mariupol. Does anybody think surrounding countries will announce they are going in to aid civilians & demand a cease fire for a limited amount of time? Obvs I know Putin may still choose to continue his attack but they may see it as a chance that needs to be taken to at least try to help civilians. This way it may not lead to a WW if we go in to purely help civilians

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@TargusEasting do you think the Russian navy are playing any part in the bombardment ?[/quote]
I think it is probable, but suspect most of that weaponry is being retained to assist landings around Odesa later on. This war is going to go on for years.

On BBC news this morning it was reported that Russian news is saying that all the bombings have been carried out by nationalists.

So, their line must be in the direction that Ukraine is actually Russia - but for a faction in it causing this horror.

If this is in their mind then they will not stop until Ukraine does in fact become Russia and every ‘nationalist’ has been annihilated one way or another.

@Goldenbear

It does seem to be that if you don't align your views entirely with certain key posters on this thread you are 'anxious' 'chickenshit' or need to go and find some other forum to post, where your overly optimistic views will be accommodated (patronising). I have a degree in International politics and know where to look for indepth analysis that is credible. I really do not put any person on a pedestal, I don't need to as I have something called a brain! I just don't always agree with the majority opinion on here, that doesn't mean I don't care about the atrocities or that i am an apologist whose only concern is my own interests!

Care to share the sources for in-depth credible analysis? I’m sure I’m not the only one who would appreciate it.

Goldenbear I too don’t agree with the idea that people are chicken or avoiding reality either.

I’d be interested to hear more as having more analysis too if you felt like posting.

I felt optimistic about peace talks because the Turkish PM said there was hope for a breakthrough.

But hearing today’s news it doesn’t seem likely, so I wonder why he said that.

@Alexandra2001

The decisions on what NATO is prepared to do aren't made on appeals to emotion and how terrible it is on the ground. They are made on establishing what a mission would be like - including what the enemy would be likely tomo in response - and can NATO achieve it by application of force

Disagree, what NATO will do is decided by American public opinion, which for the Americans is "stay out of European wars" Biden made that perfectly clear pre invasion and was backed by everyone else in NATO.
Europe without the USA isn't strong enough as it is a mishmash of weak (militarily) countries.

Ukraine and its threat to the US is surprisingly low on a list of world threats they fear, with Iran considered more of a danger.

Thank you, I’ve said a few times in the last few threads that until the American public are behind it there won’t be USA boots over here in anything other than intimidation/show of strength support to other countries. Nato agreement or not.

What action do you want to see then?

'We must do something' is one of the most dangerous sentences there is.

Unless of course you can describe roughly what that 'something' is, and why it stands a decent chance of improving anything, with very low chance of making it worse.

I’d prefer this over just the do something line. Maybe posters can qualify it further - if they are explicit about what they want to see and expand on how they think it will evolve if what they want to see is done.

On BBC news this morning it was reported that Russian news is saying that all the bombings have been carried out by nationalists.

They blame everything on the Azov battalion. The shelling, civilians not being able to leave, everything. They would probably say it's the MN contingent of the Above battalion posting here.

There was something in this morning's papers about a terror act in Lviv, targeting foreign diplomats, that was prevented by Russia, that was a bit off.

@ClaudineClare

RTB, I am sorry you are upset, but you post extensively on this thread. People are occasionally going to disagree with you or challenge you.

Too many people seem to be holding onto the idea of there suddenly being a happy ending

I don't think anyone here is stupid enough to think this will have a happy ending. Plenty of us fully remember Bosnia.

There's a big difference between disagreeing or challenging, and making personal attacks accusing a poster of deliberately stirring up anxiety.

I'm sick of some posters making it clear that anxiety should be catered to at all costs and that anger and genuine concern are somehow unacceptable. And don't ask me to quote the posts/posters I'm talking about - there's been plenty of them.

I'm sick of some posters making it clear that anxiety should be catered to at all costs and that anger and genuine concern are somehow unacceptable. And don't ask me to quote the posts/posters I'm talking about - there's been plenty of them

I don't think anyone has said anxiety should be catered to at all costs and that anger and genuine concern are somehow unacceptable

Anyway, this is in danger of becoming a derail...

Anyway, this is in danger of becoming a derail...

Agree! It's perfectly normal and reasonable for people to ask for clarification on certain points that they don't understand/know how to interpret. This IS a situation that causes anxiety and some of that comes from how complex the situation is. I think we should welcome posters asking for clarification if it's needed and, in doing so, stick to the point so that we don't go off on a tangent about something not really related to the situation in Ukraine.

Any one know if we can get aid to Mariupal - food,water,weapons
either by air or sea?

Very interesting and clear eyed thread on ceasefire negotiations from former intelligence analyst. Discusses the different strands and difficulties/ shifts in each stream.
Final tweet in thread:
"Anyway, a long way to go, FT discussion is incomplete, and events and fog of negotiations mean there's a lot of space where devils may hide. But looks to me like R much more serious about wanting to find paths out of their war than was the case a week ago"

twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1504166263504793600?s=20&t=JmC5rj9hg_0Q7qxTDG9zkg