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Ukraine-invasion-part-15

999 replies

Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 16:14

Next part.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
15
wonderfullife123 · 21/03/2022 09:43

Sorry - need to scroll down thread above to get most recent analysis.

MrsLargeEmbodied · 21/03/2022 09:46

Any one know if we can get aid to Mariupal - food,water,weapons
either by air or sea?

also can they escape by sea?
obviously the soldiers need to remain but they need fuel

cloudberry · 21/03/2022 09:46

I read all the posts but don’t comment. I haven’t reached the end yet this morning but want to say that I really appreciate all the links that are posted. In particular I’ve have just read @RedToothBrush’s post with the diary excerpt from a woman in Mariupol. It is utterly utterly chilling. This is what brings home the reality of what is going on, and Christopher Miller’s quote about the executions. I spend a lot of time in the car and listen to radio far more than tv. I believe we, speaking for myself, I need not to bury my head in the sand and cry ‘It’s too awful, I just can’t bear it”. This IS what is happening. I feel impotent, incredibly fortunate to live in England right now but I cannot hide away from the horror, nor should I wallow in it. The impotence is excruciating. It is almost beyond imagination what the Ukrainians are going through. I am grateful for the opportunities to educate myself and engage my brain through these posts.

forinborin · 21/03/2022 09:50

@MrsLargeEmbodied

Any one know if we can get aid to Mariupal - food,water,weapons either by air or sea?
There are no ways into the city as of now. The best you can do is to supply cities which accept Mariupol's refugees now.
DuncinToffee · 21/03/2022 09:50

@ClaudineClare

RTB, I am sorry you are upset, but you post extensively on this thread. People are occasionally going to disagree with you or challenge you.

Too many people seem to be holding onto the idea of there suddenly being a happy ending

I don't think anyone here is stupid enough to think this will have a happy ending. Plenty of us fully remember Bosnia.

I don't think this has anything to do with with agreeing or disagreeing but more with people having problems with RTB posting her own opinion, feelings or fears, which I think is bizarre.

At least that is the way I read it.

MagicFox · 21/03/2022 09:50

[quote wonderfullife123]Very interesting and clear eyed thread on ceasefire negotiations from former intelligence analyst. Discusses the different strands and difficulties/ shifts in each stream.
Final tweet in thread:
"Anyway, a long way to go, FT discussion is incomplete, and events and fog of negotiations mean there's a lot of space where devils may hide. But looks to me like R much more serious about wanting to find paths out of their war than was the case a week ago"

twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1504166263504793600?s=20&t=JmC5rj9hg_0Q7qxTDG9zkg[/quote]

Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case re Russia's softening: twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1505837638502211585?s=21

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 21/03/2022 09:54

Asking for clarification yes, posting “is this ww3 are we all going to die” and then having three pages of reassurances is not asking for clarification. Telling those of us who suggested maybe these threads are not the place to be for the extremely anxious who post the “omg we are all going to die” lines to stop picking on them is not asking for Clarification.

Attacking rtb and saying various things about what she shouldn’t have posted prior to going to bed is not asking for clarification!

No one has said everyone must agree. there has been lots of disagreement in the discussion.

@RedToothBrush please do keep posting, exactly as you have been including last nights last post. Plenty of us knew exactly what you meant and why you’d posted. It was a conclusion I’d also come to having read the earlier posts.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 21/03/2022 09:56

@JamieNorthlife

I have a question but not sure if this is the correct place to ask.

I saw a lot of videos circulating with Ukrainians taping (it looks like tape or cling film) people to posts and torturing them. The captions were that these were Russian speaking Ukrainians being tortured by Ukrainian ultranationalists and this is not new behaviour.

Has anyone else watched these videos or knows if these videos are real or staged?

This might be a form of mob justice as a pp said. I have personally seen such instances in Africa for things as small as stealing. It is gut wrenching. Try not to watch those videos.
MrsLargeEmbodied · 21/03/2022 09:57

i follow lyse doucet mainly - she knows what she is talking about.
posters here seem to be giving opinions and regurgitating twitter.

MarshaBradyo · 21/03/2022 09:59

Lyse Doucet is excellent. Her reporting is clear and good but also the way she says it is profound

MagicFox · 21/03/2022 09:59

Yesterday I mentioned docs on the Chinese position but couldn't find the source. Found it this morning: twitter.com/polijunkie_aus/status/1505560092649099272?s=21

MrsLargeEmbodied · 21/03/2022 10:00

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60816885

russian trying to starve mariupol into surrendering - this is why i asked above if aid could reach them via the sea, but it seems it is blocked.
There are mounting concerns about the humanitarian situation, with Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a Ukrainian MP from Mariupol, calling it "hell on Earth".

this was said by lyse doucet weeks ago, this is their action plan, this is how they work, siege mentality.

Ijsbear · 21/03/2022 10:04

Yes, please keep posting RTB. Cloudberry and EsmeCannonball and shredded and notim and several others also post highly informative stuff.

Goldenbear I'm genuinely interested in the in-depth analysis too. I get mine from the Institute for the Study of War for the military summary and from the outstanding Kamil Galeev, but if you have others please post!

OP posts:
Yeahthat · 21/03/2022 10:07

@forinborin
You haven't, therefore the videos we've seen with our own eyes are fake? We don't know the specifics of those involved, but there are videos circulating of people being publicly tortured in Ukraine tied to lamposts and abused.

@JamieNorthlife
I haven't seen that. I'd assume it's done for public humiliation and degradation. That's always been used as a weapon of war. Look at the Spanish Civil War and prisoners being forced to drink castor oil then paraded through towns.

MissBlackbird · 21/03/2022 10:11

@DrBlackbird and all those agreeing with him you are deluded in thinking Putin is the only responsible for what is going on right now in Ukraine. You obviously haven’t experienced communism at it’s worst in Eastern Europe. Please document yourself about what happened in 1989 and see the similarities with the current situation in Ukraine. History is sadly repeating itself!

MrsLargeEmbodied · 21/03/2022 10:15

i did see on the news there are worries about russians infiltrating ukraine, so perhaps this is the lamppost issue

CailleachGranda · 21/03/2022 10:16

[quote MissBlackbird]@DrBlackbird and all those agreeing with him you are deluded in thinking Putin is the only responsible for what is going on right now in Ukraine. You obviously haven’t experienced communism at it’s worst in Eastern Europe. Please document yourself about what happened in 1989 and see the similarities with the current situation in Ukraine. History is sadly repeating itself![/quote]
By "what is going on in Ukraine" you mean the russian attack and invasion?

Welcome to Mn by the way

Natsku · 21/03/2022 10:17

⚡️WSJ: Russia shifts to 'Plan B' after blitzkrieg victory failure.

Unnamed senior U.S. officials cited by the Wall Street Journal said that the Kremlin’s new strategy is to secure key territorial objectives in Ukraine’s east and south and push Ukraine to accept neutrality.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505848551544221696

Is this good or bad? If they're switching to plan B is there a risk of desperate escalation or what?

shreddednips · 21/03/2022 10:20

@AgnesWestern

I felt optimistic about peace talks because the Turkish PM said there was hope for a breakthrough.

But hearing today’s news it doesn’t seem likely, so I wonder why he said that.

A negotiated deescalation js in Turkey's interests because it's in a sticky situation here. It trades heavily with both Ukraine and Russia, and the damage inflicted on Russia's economy will have a major knock-on impact for Turkey. Erdogan is also running for re-election in 2023, so an economic crisis would be bad news for him personally. Turkey also has to balance these issues with its commitments to NATO. So, I think Erdogan might be being optimistic for these reasons. This article explains the implications of the invasion for Turkey:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/turkey-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place-on-russia/amp/

MrsPsmalls · 21/03/2022 10:21

Thanks for posting RTB. Have always valued your posts.

shreddednips · 21/03/2022 10:24

[quote MagicFox]Yesterday I mentioned docs on the Chinese position but couldn't find the source. Found it this morning: twitter.com/polijunkie_aus/status/1505560092649099272?s=21[/quote]
Thanks, that's extremely interesting.

DuncinToffee · 21/03/2022 10:29

James Waterhouse @jamwaterhouse

A new 35 hour curfew has been announced in Kyiv.

Running from 8pm tonight until 7am on Wednesday.

Authorities say anyone seen on the streets (without a special pass or not making their way to a shelter) will be considered an enemy.

DuncinToffee · 21/03/2022 10:32

[quote MissBlackbird]@DrBlackbird and all those agreeing with him you are deluded in thinking Putin is the only responsible for what is going on right now in Ukraine. You obviously haven’t experienced communism at it’s worst in Eastern Europe. Please document yourself about what happened in 1989 and see the similarities with the current situation in Ukraine. History is sadly repeating itself![/quote]
Maybe try reading the thread and the previous 14

Tuba437 · 21/03/2022 10:36

This reply has been deleted

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RedToothBrush · 21/03/2022 10:37

The Times @thetimes
As the fighting raged around them, the Zakharchuk family heaved themselves out of the wreckage of their house and ran for it. They only made it as far as their next-door neighbours’, but at least it was intact and unshelled
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-kyiv-familys-flight-to-safety-tells-the-tale-of-horror-of-russian-shelling-hzfst65rc?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1647842164
One Kyiv family’s flight to safety tells the tale of horror of Russian shelling
As Russia’s strategy changes and the capital becomes a city under siege hospitals in surrounding areas are seeing more civilian casualties

Bogdan, 17, was seared on his face and body, and had shrapnel embedded in a broken upper arm. His mother and stepfather (pictured) had severe burns too from the missile that had landed on the house, but for two days they could all only shelter and hide the best they could

They had no phone left to call for help, and in any case there was no way for help to arrive through the battlefield. Ambulance crews say that they cannot go to the front for fear of being shot at

The cavalry — in the form of the Ukrainian army — arrived to save them on Friday. They dashed to the road to meet them, and were driven to the hospital in the nearby town of Brovary, east of Kyiv, where they lay on Saturday afternoon, still in a state of shock

“For two days, I was freezing, and in so much pain,” Bogdan said. He described how the Russian soldiers came through their village, Zalyssia, a few miles north east of Brovary, and then how the Ukrainians pushed back and took over again, enabling their escape

Blood and pus seeped through the bandages swathing his face, arm and back. A wisp of teenage beard partially hid a child’s face whose eyes were downcast and fearful

His tale of the battle would seem to confirm a picture of Kyiv being a city under siege, holding out against overwhelming Russian forces.

In fact, the pain of the Zakharchuk family is more emblematic of a shift in the war, and in Russian strategy

The last week has seen light but regular and random shelling of Kyiv’s suburbs, assumed by its defenders to be a sign of Russian weakness, with Moscow’s tanks having been unable to get near the city itself

That would match Russian tactics in other wars, in which cities are softened up by attacks on residential areas in order to weaken morale in advance of a main attack.

However, it could also be a sign that the Russian generals have switched their main attention elsewhere

It is clear on the ground that the Russians have given up any immediate attempt to capture or even surround Kyiv

Instead, they want to hold up Ukrainian troops there, and keep the city’s residents on edge, while their greater strength in numbers strips Ukraine of territory that is more useful to President Putin’s longer term chances of claiming a victory

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