Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

I cannot add anything but would like to say thanks to @RedToothbrush & all other regulars for their informative posts

@Yeahthat

I saw some with children and women.

Why are they removing their pants including the women's?

And besides, I thought it was certain posters not agreeing with what you want so told to 'fuck off'.

If apparently (and I really stress the "if" and "apparently") Putin intends to conscript 17 year olds, he is perilously close to emulating the utterly depraved act of the (dying) Nazi regime in sending the Hitler Youth out to face the oncoming (and furious) Red Army.

I've felt the last few weeks have been like watching a speeded up version of WW2 in microcosm, in some ways. It is pitiful and heartbreaking.

Golden Bear, whom are you addressing?

I don't know what twitter stuff your referring to others posters but is it necessary to watch it

Bobbie

I'm not offended personally I'm wondering if it is completely necessary but each to their own I suppose. I have been on MN since 2006 so I'm very aware of how the site works.

@StormzyinaTCup

It's this user's bread and butter when the thread is becoming too rational.

I know and it irks me,
Knowing full well people on here have anxiety issues to leave a post like that hanging and at this late hour is, if I'm being blunt, irresponsible.

It irks me that it's the responsibility of posters on this thread to temper their contributions/analysis to alleviate the anxiety of others.

It a thread about war, atrocities and a seismic shift in geopolitical positions and goals.

The situation/outcome is uncertain and our understanding is fragmented and changeable based on information that reformats our perception on an hourly basis.

To to reframe, if this thread is causing anxiety then take personal responsibility to step away from it. There are countless other threads on MN and other sites that are more mentally supportive by adopting an optimistic outcome rather than this, which is frankly more pragmatic.

There is no happy ending to be had. A country has seen cities obliterated. Yet we still see posters happy to sacrifice Ukrainians to ensure their own protection without realising it's the thin end of the wedge.

What more does Putin have to do to cross a line? How many cities, hospitals, shelters, unarmed civilians does he have to obliterate or ship to Russia as slave labour before you say enough?

Negotiations assume both parties prefer peace to war. Putin does not subscribe to this concept. He's had 20 years of learning that war and escalation serve his goals in both creating a fearful West and the notion of a powerful East.

So by all means sacrifice Ukrainians to kick the can down the road but we'll be right bank were we started with a bigger can that's filled with petrol with Putin still holding his lighter.

We have a choice to make and Putin is banking on us being scared and avoiding the only thing that he fears which is NATO saying enough.

So where is that red line best drawn? Now, when his economy is about to crumble and his forces are weak or in 5 years when he's had chance to re-group?

Interesting quote from Zelensky 'If Nato members are ready to see us in the alliance, then do it immediately," he said. "Because people are dying on a daily basis'

Seems he hasn't stopped wanting to be in NATO at all when a few days ago he acknowledged that it wouldn't happen (something negotiation has been around).

Also interesting re surrender I'm wondering if this will escalate things in terms of Russia saying 'well we gave you an out which you didn't take'

@BreadInCaptivity - I'm well aware of the geopolitical situation thank you and the rather obvious fact that war is shit. I have my own opinions on the situation and have posted my occasional thoughts on this across the threads, but that was not my point.

Fortunately, I don't have any issues with either anxiety or mental health. I can't influence the current situation or the likely outcome. I read what's posted on here on and off, take a view on it and move on with my day.

I'm not saying that anyone should temper their contributions but when you are a main contributor and posters are telling you how great, insightful and informative your posts are and are regularly asked for your knowledgeable opinion, to then throw in a random (paraphrasing) 'something awful is going to happen tomorrow and it's going to cause many people anxiety end of' is a bit shit tbh.

This is just my opinion of course and probably many people will disagree and that's absolutely fine.

@StormzyinaTCup

I appreciate your response.

I'm in no way suggesting that people should not have different views or trying to stop debate.

However, it's worth everyone remembering that this is MN. It's not the oracle of everything.

Posters views are their own and largely unfiltered.

It's up to individuals if they give credence or hold a higher value on some posters opinions than others - but that's their choice.

We each have our own agency to filter and respond to the information/opinions we receive about this war and is that not what the Ukrainians are fighting for - rather than state controlled media by an unelected puppet regime?

It does seem to be that if you don't align your views entirely with certain key posters on this thread you are 'anxious' 'chickenshit' or need to go and find some other forum to post, where your overly optimistic views will be accommodated (patronising). I have a degree in International politics and know where to look for indepth analysis that is credible. I really do not put any person on a pedestal, I don't need to as I have something called a brain! I just don't always agree with the majority opinion on here, that doesn't mean I don't care about the atrocities or that i am an apologist whose only concern is my own interests!

@elephantmarchingin

That’s interesting and concerning. I thought he had stated he wouldn’t be joining NATO anymore and that was part of the peace talks?

"Would say Poland have an agreement aswell with Nato that it can't trigger article 5 if its troops inside Ukraine are attacked or killed?"

Surely Poland doesn't have any troops in Ukraine?

There are very specific assurances of no NATO boots in Ukraine.

I don't see Poland choosing to defy NATO consensus at a time such as this and over a matter which wouid leave them so exposed.

NATO isn't a pick and mix range of options. It's a mutual defence pact. Russia will take NATO involvement as our going to war against them. There's a good chance Poland would be expelled from NATO rather than let them unilaterally bring all 30 countries in to war. And if expelled, it'll mean no-ones coming to help them if Russia decides it will support Belarus in taking a land corridor to Kaliningrad through their territory, or to invade for any other reason.

The supply of planes was too much for NATO to countenance, and Poland fell in to line. I can't see them defying NATO consensus over the much higher stakes 'NATO boots on the ground'

What more does Putin have to do to cross a line? How many cities, hospitals, shelters, unarmed civilians does he have to obliterate or ship to Russia as slave labour before you say enough?

This is what urban war in Europe looks like. It's what it's already looked like this century.

We saw concentration camps and mass genocidal murder, and cities destroyed from 1992 onwards.

NATO country politicians all know this, and NATO military leaders too - indeed many nations were part of the forces which contributed to the missions during that war, and have direct experience of what life was like for civilians when the forces of an aggressor shell and divide a capital city, or what concentration camps are like.

The decisions on what NATO is prepared to do aren't made on appeals to emotion and how terrible it is on the ground. They are made on establishing what a mission wouid be like - including what the enemy wouid be likely tomdo in response - and can NATO achieve it by application of force.

What happens during the period of the application of force (which in this case means generalised war with Russia) has to be taken in to account.

(The rebuilding of all the countries smashed during the generalised war, and how it can possibly be afforded, is rarely taken in to consideration - the planning for 'what happens next' after the fighting phase has been either poorly done or poorly carried out in every conflict I can think of in recent years (since, say, the 90s and the end of the USSR)

Morning. Has anything happened in Mariupol? Or we don't know yet?

@TokyoSushi

Morning. Has anything happened in Mariupol? Or we don't know yet?

Wondering same, regarding non surrender I’m not surprised.

Meditrina good posts

Nothing specifically being reported at this stage in Mariupol.

They've refused to surrender, waiting to see what Russia do

The decisions on what NATO is prepared to do aren't made on appeals to emotion and how terrible it is on the ground. They are made on establishing what a mission would be like - including what the enemy would be likely tomo in response - and can NATO achieve it by application of force

Disagree, what NATO will do is decided by American public opinion, which for the Americans is "stay out of European wars" Biden made that perfectly clear pre invasion and was backed by everyone else in NATO.
Europe without the USA isn't strong enough as it is a mishmash of weak (militarily) countries.

Ukraine and its threat to the US is surprisingly low on a list of world threats they fear, with Iran considered more of a danger.

I thought that they might, gosh it's such a worry

@TokyoSushi

Morning. Has anything happened in Mariupol? Or we don't know yet?

Did you hear a world service report this morning?

A little girl (Dominica) singing to her parents and grandparents, followed by "Dominica died instantly, her mother died in hospital after the bunker they were in was hit by a Russian shell"

Thats whats happening in Mariupol and in many other cities across Ukraine and will continue to do so as we look on.

Meanwhile "How much will fuel duty be cut?" is the headline across UK tabloids.

I agree that what the public in NATO countries wants is a factor.

And you can already see that Biden has told the US public that the red line of 'an attack on a NATO member is an attack on all' will hold good.

So yes, they are preparing the public for that.

And have, no doubt, also been preparing China.