Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

@baroqueandblue

If we hadn’t done various things eg oligarchs I still think we’d be here.. maybe others can see a path where we wouldn’t be

I think you're right. Other countries haven't pandered to him or influential/wealthy/crooked Russians and they're still vulnerable to the world being as unstable as it currently is.

In our case, it's just got an extra nasty tinge to it

mmm maybe, who knows? what Oligarchs did do was give Putin wealth and influence, so they encouraged a relaxed view to Putins expansionist adventures in 2009 and 2014.... quietened frayed nerves on the Salisbury killings, pushed the brexit agenda. Do you think they gave the money to uk political parties without Putins say so?

Billionaires have extraordinary power, wherever & whoever they are in the world.

@AgnesWestern I think I'm the same as you. I was born in 96 - I'm a history graduate hence my interest but very much protected from notions of war etc this is 'new' to me I've not had this before and I'm coping the best I can

I have a DS and I know I'd want to protect him

The amphibious craft near Japan, would that have anything to do with Japan making a claim on the Kuril islands ?

Been at work all day so not had the opportunity to check any news, did hear part of a very interesting discussion this morning about Weber's Charismatic authority, need to go back for a full listen.

@AgnesWestern

I have to believe peace talks will happen and be successful eventually.

@Ijsbear you sound much braver than me. But I have never been in the position these people have. However I would do anything to save my son’s life and if that meant surrending to the enemy I would. Not sure what that makes me, probably a coward. I may have had different thoughts before I became a parent, but it’s how I feel today.

I just hope this all comes to an end soon, with the least deaths possible going forward.

I don’t believe war is the answer and I’m also thinking of joining the next campaign for nuclear disarmament or the equivalent.
I think what Putin is doing/has done is abhorrent. I just keep hoping he has some humanity left, which is where peace talks come in.
I’m the type of person who tries to see the good in everyone. I wish I wasn’t like this but I am, it’s a bit of a curse really.

I get it, but I'm beginning to rather agree with other posters that Russia is not really serious about brokering peace. Putin has no humanity- what he cares about is power and influence.

That's not to say that there isn't hope for peace eventually, but I'm beginning to think that time hasn't come yet. As a PP wisely said, Ukraine needs to get into a stronger position first, preferably by beating the Russians back. We need to do everything possible to get them into a position where they can.

I understand the longing for peace as soon as possible, but a temporary peace solves nothing. Putin needs to be slapped down once and for all, because he will be an omnipresent danger. An uneasy truce will be cold comfort if Ukraine is constantly wondering when the next attempt will come and we're locked in a Cold War situation with Russia.

There's still lots that we don't know that could change the playing field here. We don't know what impact American drones will have on Ukraine's ability to potentially counter attack. We don't know what China will do. And then there are all sorts of other things that could happen, like internal strife in Russia, that could turn the tables.

So what I'm saying is, I'm not sure that we should be hoping for peace as soon as possible at any cost, but more for Ukraine to be in as strong a position as possible to achieve its long-term safety.

The amphibious craft near Japan, would that have anything to do with Japan making a claim on the Kuril islands ?

I've missed the posts relating to craft near Japan but they had an earthquake off the coast of Fukushima yesterday, could it be related to that?

@Alexandra2001

Yes, if my adult sons went to war I would respect their decision, as any parent should respect the free will of their children. Anything else is controlling another adult's free will and it would be my problem were they killed. I don't have the right to dictate their choice and I would respect that they have something they truly felt was worth taking extreme risk for

Load of hot air from someone who hasn't had to to be in that situation.
Have a google on Jack Kipling and how his death transformed his fathers patriotic views.

If I was younger I would go myself. Because when the shit really hits the fan you have to decide what you will stand for, and what you will risk dying for

You really don't know that, its just a theory.

I have to ask. Have you faced what matters enough to accept death for?

I've missed the posts relating to craft near Japan but they had an earthquake off the coast of Fukushima yesterday, could it be related to that?

I think they were Russian ones from what people said on the other thread ? But I imagine that in those circumstances it would be all hands on deck so to speak ?

@ljsbear So basically you are willing to let Ukraine be completely destroyed and all the people in Ukraine either displaced or dead just so that you can do what, get Putin to leave Ukraine? You think that if Zelensky agrees on peace it is certain Putin will come back this time more determined you say? So let's just imagine for a moment Zelensky and his men push Putin back to the borders and Ukraine wins as you wish... will Putin not come back some time in the future? This time more determined?! If you think he would after a peace agreement, what would be the difference?

I am not sure you have thought this through. Unless you think that eventually other powers will join with Zelensky and invade Russia? There is a build up of NATO military other neighbouring states, you would support an all out war with Putin regardless of the damage it will do to millions and millions of people all over the world? Or even China joins in the fight. Is that really what you are saying?

"High concern' China might supply Russia with weapons, White House warns
The White House has said it has "high concern" China could provide Russia with military equipment to assist its invasion in Ukraine.
White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said US President Joe Biden would be candid and direct in his call with Chinese President Xi Jinping tomorrow.
She said China's failure to denounced Russia "speaks volumes".
As we reported earlier, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the White House will have no hesitation imposing "costs" on Beijing if the country continues to defend Mr Putin's actions."

So Biden will be talking to Xi Jinping tomorrow. Biden making his red lines clear in advance again. How much do you think we will be told about the outcome of their conversation? I feel like a lot could be hanging off this call. China can only stay on the fence for so long.

@Ijsbear
"If only I were younger I'd be fighting"

Yeah, of course you would. No doubt you'd be on the frontline of the Ukranian Foreign Legion. If only, huh.

My suggestion isn't that Ukraine disarm. We would continue to supply them with arms. They would prepare for further conflict if the peace deal wasn't respected.

Is your suggestion that they go on fighting indefinitely even if they've brought Russia to the point where they are willing to negotiate a peace settlement?

Nobody wants to invade Russia @megynhelena. NATO certainly doesn't, but they will protect the countries who are members and they will support Ukraine's fight against the invasion.
Putin started the war and he could end it in the next hour, should he choose to do so.

Sorry meant to say I lifted that quote from Sky news.

The Ukraine is going to be levelled unless the Ukrainians either fight (against ALL expectations 4 weeks ago, all. Only 4 weeks ago) or surrender. It's not about what Im willing to let be destroyed. What do you think I am? It's what Putin is willing to be destroyed.

Look at the history, look at the pattern of behaviour. Look at Putin's history. He plays one-up-man-ship the whole time. You work with him, no matter what or you get thrown out and if you're important enought that your troubles send a message to others you get assassinated. Look at the evidence.

I have thought this through, though I certainly don't pick up on everything.

But you haven't read my post. I said nothing about invading Russia. Why did you ask that?

Why did you ask if China joins the fight? I have said they will stay neutral or possibly pro-Putin. Why do you post against proveable posts of mine that I think China will join the fight?

Also, what is wrong in hoping that that the Ukraine will win this fight for their own land?

We don't know what impact American drones will have on Ukraine's ability to potentially counter attack.

Not much. They will make it easier for the UA to attack tanks, vehicles, artillery, etc. without putting themselves at risk, but they are not game changers. News reports say that only 100 have been promised. I hope the real number is many times that.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade

[quote megynhelena]@ljsbear So basically you are willing to let Ukraine be completely destroyed and all the people in Ukraine either displaced or dead just so that you can do what, get Putin to leave Ukraine? You think that if Zelensky agrees on peace it is certain Putin will come back this time more determined you say? So let's just imagine for a moment Zelensky and his men push Putin back to the borders and Ukraine wins as you wish... will Putin not come back some time in the future? This time more determined?! If you think he would after a peace agreement, what would be the difference?

I am not sure you have thought this through. Unless you think that eventually other powers will join with Zelensky and invade Russia? There is a build up of NATO military other neighbouring states, you would support an all out war with Putin regardless of the damage it will do to millions and millions of people all over the world? Or even China joins in the fight. Is that really what you are saying?[/quote]
Well, I suppose it depends on whether Russia is actually negotiating in good faith. It's making the right noises, but its increasingly brutal actions suggest otherwise. Of course, if Russia were to begin deescalation and agree to fair terms for Ukraine, including solid security arrangements, I'd say something different. Who knows, maybe I'm totally wrong and this will materialise in the next few days. But I think the risk of Putin reattempting an invasion is certainly higher if he's emboldened by achieving a settlement that leaves Ukraine vulnerable. So, I'm hoping for the best, but I still think Ukraine needs to be helped into a position where it can potentially beat Russia back and strengthen its hand.

[quote AgnesWestern]@RedToothBrush I look for humanity in everyone, but I don’t always find it. I’m really struggling with Putin. He probably cares about his own children and grandchildren, but no one else’s. Obviously there are people throughout history who did completely evil and disgusting things, but I’m not sure anyone is ‘born evil’.
For the record, I think Putin is a horrible human being, I just meant I can’t give up hopes on peace talks and an end to all this, as it feels like giving up completely, to me anyway, others will have different opinions I know.

I’m lucky in that I’ve been cushioned from harm and I grew up in the 90s and early 2000s (born in 89) so haven’t had to experience much myself and I know I’m very fortunate in that sense.[/quote]
I think I find the concept of 'innocence' and not being aware of the world hard to deal with. For me its something that has always been there. Thats not been my life experience. Its always been something that is possible and part of life - my life. Not people who live far away that I don't know. Family and personal experience mean its 'real'.

It probably is why I perhaps come across strangely on this thread - too direct with it for some tastes. I think for various reasons (my love of history, politics and media) its always been there, important close and I'm probably quite frankly more desensitised to it now than most. Its been 'there' in my mind since I was ten years old.

I was talking about this with friends last night and how I don't blink at stuff on twitter anymore that years ago you just won't have seen. There was a particular lecture that stuck with me which was about editoral choices in war, and we were shown stuck from Iraq that was never broadcast by the BBC to shock us and illustrate the point. Now I think that type of stuff would be shown without too much concern. They don't see the world in the same way and find me odd and strange to understand.

So yeah, for me its not normal (thats definitely the wrong word) but its certainly not shocking or something that happens to other people. I am very very aware that it absoluetely happens to 'people like me'.

I find the way that I've always dealt with it is to be head on, 'ok this happened/is happening' and wanting to understand and deconstruct it from multiple angles and perseptives to almost get to this 'why? how could this possibly happen?' idea. These things make sense then, even if they are truly horrific and the reasons groseque.

It probably sounds fucked in the head. Probably because it is. But for me its the exploration of what it is to be human. That includes its deprivation and how utimately can also lose it value of life and respect for others and crazed pursuit of power. For me, the idea that normal people can support and do the most terrible things is part of that. Ordinary Bob down the road can kill Fred his neighbour he's known and been friends with for 20 years under the right conditions.

I think the simple truth is a sense that I can't protect my son from life. Just as my parents couldn't protect me. And my grandparents couldn't protect my Mum. And my great grandparents couldn't protect my grandfather. And my great great grandparents couldn't protect my great grandfather.

The best I can hope for is to explain this to DS.

I actually wouldn't want him to have a completely sheltered life either because thats not how the world is for the majority.

[quote Yeahthat]@Ijsbear
"If only I were younger I'd be fighting"

Yeah, of course you would. No doubt you'd be on the frontline of the Ukranian Foreign Legion. If only, huh.

My suggestion isn't that Ukraine disarm. We would continue to supply them with arms. They would prepare for further conflict if the peace deal wasn't respected.

Is your suggestion that they go on fighting indefinitely even if they've brought Russia to the point where they are willing to negotiate a peace settlement?[/quote]
What do you suggest they accept as settlement?

Define it, please.

@Wrongkindofovercoat

Nobody wants to invade Russia *@megynhelena*. NATO certainly doesn't, but they will protect the countries who are members and they will support Ukraine's fight against the invasion. Putin started the war and he could end it in the next hour, should he choose to do so.

I was asking lgsbear if she wanted NATO to invade, because Zelensky could agree to the peace deal and see if it ends the death and destruction, it would not increase risk, but lgsbear wants Ukraine to fight to the death. I wondered if she thought that others would join in the fight.

I think the simple truth is a sense that I can't protect my son from life. Just as my parents couldn't protect me. And my grandparents couldn't protect my Mum. And my great grandparents couldn't protect my grandfather. And my great great grandparents couldn't protect my great grandfather.

God, though. Isn't it hard? To love so much and to want to protect so much, to have to let your children go in a world filled with hate and violence. It's crippling.

@MagicFox

I think the simple truth is a sense that I can't protect my son from life. Just as my parents couldn't protect me. And my grandparents couldn't protect my Mum. And my great grandparents couldn't protect my grandfather. And my great great grandparents couldn't protect my great grandfather.

God, though. Isn't it hard? To love so much and to want to protect so much, to have to let your children go in a world filled with hate and violence. It's crippling.

I feel so protected, throughout life in Aus now in U.K. my dc do too, up to a point. I suppose it’s that point that makes us fearful.

I think and hope that Ukraine will fight to the end. Yes that includes the death of civilians and their, oh god, oh god help them, children.

Because this is what the Ukrainians wants. Mariupol has not surrendered. Mariupol still chooses to stand against appalling and deliberate bombing and the death of non-combatants. How many old people are dying of dehydration in basements because no one is there to help them? How many are dying because their homes have been bombed and no one dares go near to help them? A lot.

But I do not want the Ukraine to invade and suggesting that is a distorted malicious version of what I actually said.

If the Ukraine does not fight it will be taken over. If you think anything other then you are on the side of the invaders, oh so clearly because that is exactly what they are trying for. But getting to the original borders of Ukraine (possibly excepting the Crimear) is what I said, and fair, and anyone who tries to distort that is .... exactly that. Distorting.

I just listened to an excellent podcast from The Economist interviewing the former foreign minister of Russia about Putin and the war in Ukraine.

The Economist Asks: Andrei Kozyrev

It's available on all of the usual podcast platforms. The gist of it is that we should stop worrying about giving Putin a way out. He'll find one himself, but not until he smells defeat. We should be trying harder to help Ukraine to that end.

Do you think they gave the money to uk political parties without Putins say so?

Possibly.

They're seeking their insurance policies as individuals too. Where might they be able to retire in exile? And on similar vein but with different entities, who would even notice if an awful accident befell the a major steel oligarch? Who would notice what happened to Abramovich?

The oligarchs (one should that be kleptocrats?) have been around since the 1990s, and have each risen and fallen in favour, and all must be watching their back in various ways. What they do and who they fund isn't always direct Kremlin instructions. They will do what they believe is needed, whatever quarter that arises from.

(And the steel magnate is Abramovich, btw)