Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

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Yesterday Pravda published an editorial saying that Poland was a country that owes its existence to Russia and that it also needs denazification. Pictures of Russians holding Z emblems or forming Z formations, usually toddlers and schoolchildren, are appearing all over the place. I think this is as much about intimidating the West as it is about indoctrinating Russians.

@MissConductUS

I just listened to an excellent podcast from The Economist interviewing the former foreign minister of Russia about Putin and the war in Ukraine.

The Economist Asks: Andrei Kozyrev

It's available on all of the usual podcast platforms. The gist of it is that we should stop worrying about giving Putin a way out. He'll find one himself, but not until he smells defeat. We should be trying harder to help Ukraine to that end.

Thanks, that sounds really interesting and I'll have a listen. It sort of sums up what I'm (probably not very eloquently) trying to say about the peace talks. I don't think it's hopeless, but I don't think Russia is there yet- or even if others high up are getting there, Putin isn't. I think he would have to feel really scared of losing the power he already has to give up on his hopes of acquiring yet more.

@EsmaCannonball so setting out an identical justification as they did with Ukraine to invade Poland? They won't though because of NATO. Is this simply to isolate Russians further?

@Ijsbear

What do you suggest they accept as settlement?

Define it, please

I can answer this. They want:

• Ukraine to have neutral status legally - Zelensky has already realised that NATO is not a viable/desirable option so has effectively agreed this - they could also write into the agreement that if at any time Russia goes back on its agreement, the neutrality is forthwith revoked. Weapons can appear in Ukraine overnight - we have seen this already several times over the last few years.

• Donetsk and Luhansk to be independent - this was agreed in principle in the Minsk agreement - it didn't happen as fighting continued - it has been conceded by Zelensky subject to terms

• Crimea independence - this region has a history of falling in an out of being controlled by others - I do not think fighting for this

Zelensky would want assurances that this is it in terms of border - no further demands - again if this were ever breached the agreement would become null and void so that Ukraine/Zelensky is not at risk.

This post needs to be read in conjunction with my other posts by the way

We'd know soon enough if Russia were serious. It would be clarifying so I totally support the negotiations.

I think supporting the war just because Ukraine wants it to continue is wrong because so many other countries and peoples are being affected by this.

To the posters saying Russia isn't serious, the only way to find that out is to broker peace and see what happens. There is no other way out of this. Even if Ukraine pushes Russia back this time he might come back.

How old are you lgsbear? You have alluded to experiences you have had which have shaped you, what are they?

pmk

Just to reiterate - Zelensky has indicated he agrees the terms in principle, there have been daily negotiations reported by both sides - what is the hold up?

I've downloaded the Economist Asks podcast - thanks MissConduct.

Just got back in from dealing with an overintelligent, under-common-sensed kid who swallowed magnetic marbles

Oh dear is he/she okay?

@megynhelena

Just to reiterate - Zelensky has indicated he agrees the terms in principle, there have been daily negotiations reported by both sides - what is the hold up?

Peace talks don't resolve overnight. It takes days/weeks of writing up/re writing/ signing/ checking that goes into it

I would agree that the Crimea should be Russian.

To the posters saying Russia isn't serious, the only way to find that out is to broker peace and see what happens. There is no other way out of this. Even if Ukraine pushes Russia back this time he might come back

What more do you want than Russia saying they will not invade then 1 week later invading? seriously?

Just how many promises betrayed do you want?

Ukraine is the ONLY country to give up their nuclear weopons on the basis that they trusted that they would be not attacked/protected. I do not think that Russia would have invaded if they still had nuclear weopons! That's within 20 years. Not-very-long ago.

You can't work from a zero position that negotiations with Russia are a new beginning here because there is a huge past history here, partly from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and partly because from the last 20 years from Putin. Do you honestly think that we can begin from scratch? Others don't. The invasion of the Ukraine is not a surprise. It's the only damn country Putin thought he could get away with invading and LOOK AT HIS WAY OF INTERACTING with others.

The regular poster who said a few threads ago that Putin is gigantic domestic abuser is right. He speaks, he promises, he does something oh so ever different and involved broken statements, promises and DARVO.

The evidence is there. Look!

What is happening with president Xi? Is he supporting Putin's heinous war or not?

@theyhavenothingbuttheaudacity

Just got back in from dealing with an overintelligent, under-common-sensed kid who swallowed magnetic marbles

Oh dear is he/she okay?

Hope so. the problem of someone who is way too bright and doesnt understand that physics matters!

But thank you, very much, for asking :)

@blueshoes

pmk

PIPSNPIIDMNRHWICBA you meant, not PMS

People Interested in Peace and Stability and Not Pursuing Individual Interests to the Detriment of Many and Not Repeating Horrors from History When It Could Be Avoided maybe?!

I think the posts here which support fight to the death, for the Cause, for the Ukrainians who continue to lose their world are terrifying, frankly. And suggesting the people who support peace are "weak"? Bonkers.

Does anyone want to start a new thread where we discuss the history and issues of the region and about how peace could happen, and who said what when in terms of US vs Russia over the last year and the significance of the withdrawal of the nuclear arms treaty by the US in the early 2000s and the rights and wrongs of all sides and what could be done about it all and once we have peace how to raise our game, all of us, over human rights? This war has thrown up so many issues. I think if I started to post along those lines here I'd be called a troll at some point. Or a PMK.

How Russia’s Nobel-Winning Newspaper Is Covering Ukraine
“We continue to call war war,” Dmitry Muratov, the editor of Novaya Gazeta, said. “We are waiting for the consequences.”
www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-russias-nobel-winning-newspaper-is-covering-ukraine

@eglantine7

What is happening with president Xi? Is he supporting Putin's heinous war or not?

I hope we will discover more tomorrow after he's spoken to Biden. Then again maybe there will just be more obfuscation.

@eglantine7

What is happening with president Xi? Is he supporting Putin's heinous war or not?

I don't think anyone knows. There's been some more warnings from the US not to help Russia, but then Chinese state media has been publishing content that is much more sympathetic to Ukraine. Biden is meeting virtually with Xi tomorrow.

I've got my beady eyes on this because I think China ruling out assistance would put a lot of pressure on Putin and strengthen Ukraine's hand.

(somewhat delayed) plaice matting

See the problem here is the areas that Russia has taken in this war.

And the idea of what about next time.

Ukrainians have to live with this prospect.

If Russia gains from this, whether it be land or political power (from fear) the incentive to do it again remains. That will always be the fear. And there is the issue of those displaced by a new border and what happens to those trapped behind that border in terms of their safety and well being.

Zelensky still has a responsibility to those people. Just 'giving them up' isn't an option either.

Especially when we have talk from Putin of effectively wanting to wipe out Ukraine and words like 'purify'.

There has to be a wholesale recognition of Ukraine's right to exist without being told what to do by Putin. Thats just not a viable idea at this stage, because Putin believes he owns Ukraine even now and that it has 'been stolen' from the greater soviet empire. And own is the correct word. Its personal and his property as leader of Russia. He doesn't believe in the concept of democracy and the right of self determination.

So the problem is that a significant barrier is trying to square the circle of one side believing in self determination whilst the other thinks this shouldn't exist and Ukrainian sovereignty is an extensional threat to Putin's authoritarian rule (if merely because Russians might decide they too deserve self determination from Ukraine's example).

These two concepts can not easily align. Zelensky might have softened language on NATO - if only in part because of being let down and needing his people to understand there's no one going to run in at the eleventh hour to save them. But Putin's really hasn't.

@Ijsbear What more do you want than Russia saying they will not invade then 1 week later invading? seriously? The issues on the table have been on the table for years. These are not new issues. Russia has been asking the international community to step in over Donbas and arms fears for years. There is every possiblity that a ceasefire would work here. War creates instability, it doesn't not "win" as you think it does. Peace is for strong people, not for weak people.

And if ceasefire agreement doesn't work we will know soon enough and be stronger for it.

I will leave it there with you, though, if that is okay. I am out.

@megynhelena

Your posts are the most rational that I've seen here.

I'm sceptical bordering on contemptuous of anyone who's hawkish with others' lives while (invariably) having convenient excuses as to why they can't go and fight.

There will have to be some form of negotiated peace, with guarantees such as you've suggested. We should also continue to build up Ukraine's military capability so that it's an effective deterrent to future aggression. The alternative - the crushing defeat and demilitarisation of Russia to the point that Ukraine's security is permanently guaranteed - isn't possible.

I also really hope Xi does not support this barbaric invasion and it would be devastating if he did. Keeping an eye too and look forward to posts here too.

China - there are reports that they are putting a thumb on the scales of Russia, and reports that they are keeping no thumb at all on the scales. Hard to tell the truth.

it's a balance between the intense wish for China for stability and the economic advantage of the (high indebted) US and deep cultural difference from both the US and actually Russia, tho I'm not quite sure China realises that yet - culturally they are closer to Russia but they haven't seen what an extraordinarily skillful slitherer Putin is. }

Culturally they are closer to Russia. Economically to the US and West. Who knows who will win? But frankly they are the game - changer.

Just .... does Mr Xi know what he is dealing with? He is ruthless, heaven knows (Uighirs) But Putin is an equal to him and can persuade him, if he listens, into stuff that isn't a good idea because it will allow Putin to bribe lower level officials who push information upward to Mr Xi Jinping.

@eglantine7

I also really hope Xi does not support this barbaric invasion and it would be devastating if he did. Keeping an eye too and look forward to posts here too.

I'm still feeling optimistic about this. Even though I'm not sure Putin is serious about negotiating right now, I can't see how things are going to get anything other than worse for him- unless China bolsters Russia. My hope is that as his reality changes, so does his position.