Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

Krastev: Because he wants to teach us a lesson. Because he wants to tell us: I have learned from you. Even if that means doing exactly that for which he hates us

If Krastev is right it sounds like Putin really cared and valued some aspects of the west, very deep down. That he felt betrayed by the west, which implies he had some faith in it. Mix that with the KGB training and his genius at manipulation .... and here we are. Or here the Ukraine is.

In his understanding of history, things never happen spontaneously. If people demonstrate, he doesn’t ask: Why are they out on the streets? He asks: Who sent them?

This matches exactly with the reported experience of that very brave TV editor who stood up with a sign in front of the cameras. She said afterwards that they went on for 14 hours at her about who had put her up to it. They couldn't believe she might have acted off her own bat.

They seem to forget that (some) people can and will think for themselves independently, even if many don't.

Our world has changed. We used to be in a postwar world, now we are in a prewar world. That is the change, and it is taking place in people’s heads So afraid you're right. In my fantasy land, Putin's successor would openly reject his actions, tell the Russian people they'd been lied to by someone who didn't care about the real Russia and vilify him, to justify taking Russia in a more judicially-honest direction. I don't think Russia can or should follow the West's pattern of culture too closely but a Russia that was still Russian but had more integrity would be an amazing place.

I really believe in the concept of material reality being the great barrier that ultimately can only ever be hidden for a period before it ensures a political collapse of an idea or ideology that has run away with itself unchallenged. Periods in history which value this and look to science and understanding are generally golden ages. Period which become mired in disinformation, corruption, extreme ideology and censorship aren't so great to live through

Something else will be at play here. The increasing climate crisis is going to be a huge stressor for all societies. It's one of the biggest indicators of collapse of society/empires throughout all recorded history. It won't just affect Russia but I think the countries that will weather the changing conditions best are the less totalitarian ones (excepting China) because the totalitarian ones tend to put ideology ahead of actual reality.

[quote peridito]@FatCatThinCat would that be the most recent eruption of Krakatoa last year or the big one in nineteenth century ?

Sorry to be dense ![/quote]
The big one.

I actually got a lie in so am only just catching up on the news.

All this talk of peace talks is just frustrating when the first thing i read is that an art school were 400 people are sheltering has been bombed.

Also worth pointing out that increasing the size of bomb does not increase the blast by the same amount. So to a achieve the equivalent of the 200 megaton blast at Krakatoa you would need way more than 200 megatons of bombs. DH explained in detail how it works but my ears started bleed after the first 5 minutes.

Just coming in by the look of it.

Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish
Russian military has bombed an art school where about 400 people had taken refuge, say Ukrainian authorities in the besieged port city of Mariupol.

@ScrollingLeaves

“ClaudineClare

I haven't been on this thread much snd haven't caught up with it, so am probably posting about something you all know about. The news about women and children being forcibly taken to Russia is absolutely bone chilling.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-crisis-claims-mariupol-women-and-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia“

It is bone chilling. Does anyone know if these are the same women and children as those reported to us in the news a couple of days ago as having managed to get out but having apparently chosen the route that leads to Russia?

I'm not sure they chose the route that leads to Russia.

The humanitarian "corridors" (which still seem to be subject to attack) also seem to lead to Russia, in the main.

twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1505504604582297607

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
More anti-occupation protests in Kherson as unarmed civilians wave Ukrainian flags and chant anti Russian slogans.

Even after three weeks of Russian occupation these protests happen daily.

Unverified. Needs to be said. Hard to see it not being true though given strength of feeling and other reports.

I saw an unconfirmed reference to Zelensky saying that he thinks it is possible to get up to 70% of the grain harvest in, even in these circumstances.

Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress
Russian troops had killed 56 civilians in Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast, reports Serhiy Haiday, head of Luhansk Regional Administration

He says it has become known that on Mar.11, the Russian tank fire on a retirement home in Kreminna killed 56.

Noting this:

CGTN @CGTNOfficial
China state-affiliated media
A total of 56 people have been killed after #Russian troops allegedly open fire on home for elderly

Again, another unverified report, but significance of this one is that english language Chinese state media are carrying the story.

Also in Chinese State media:

news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-20/Wang-Yi-China-shares-similar-positions-with-developing-countries-18yvXJnhUzu/index.html
Wang Yi: China shares similar positions with developing countries on Ukraine crisis

The 'Wheat Wedge'....

"Recently, I have exchanged views with foreign ministers of many Asian and African countries. I feel that many countries in the world, like China, follow closely the development of the Ukraine crisis and share a lot of common ground," Wang said.

In dealing with international and regional hotspot issues, war and sanctions are not the only two options, he said, adding that dialogue and negotiation are fundamental solutions.

Noting that the momentum of the world's economic recovery should not be undermined, he said that against the backdrop of COVID-19, escalating unilateral sanctions will disrupt the global industrial and supply chains.

Every country has the right to decide its own foreign policy independently and should not be forced to take sides, he stressed.

The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected at all times, he said.

Wang also highlighted China's friendship with African countries, saying that as a good brother of African countries, China will continue to stand with Africa and firmly support Africa in safeguarding peace and security.

@Ijsbear

I saw an unconfirmed reference to Zelensky saying that he thinks it is possible to get up to 70% of the grain harvest in, even in these circumstances.

That would be good news for everyone.

Sunflower and corn production also important for Ukraine, but wheat is already in the ground having over wintered.

The problem perhaps comes later...

Re: farming. Part of the issue will be ensuring farmers have sufficient fuel for machinery. They had ordered in advance but much of it is stuck in Belarus.

Lyse Doucet talked about this earlier

Over 1.5m tulips laid as coat of arms in Kyiv

www.euronews.com/2022/03/19/defiant-kyiv-residents-arrange-tulips-display

I've seen a few reports floating around on twitter now from different sources that Putin has agreed to meet Zelenskey in person.

This is weird: the Kyiv Independent reports plot to overthrow Putin and replace him with the head of the FSB. Obviously this can't be true, why are they reporting this? To stoke paranoia? twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1505518177932955649?s=21

Redtoothbrush thanks for posting the informative views of Ivan Krastev in De Spiegel on Putin's Uncontrolled Despot Syndrome mindset.

That does not bode well for Ukraine as from reading the article, the only way to stop Putin, short of risking a nuclear war, is for the Russian war machine in Ukraine to come to a juddering halt. How many Ukrainian lives would have been lost before we get to that point.

The thought fills me with despair.

[quote MagicFox]This is weird: the Kyiv Independent reports plot to overthrow Putin and replace him with the head of the FSB. Obviously this can't be true, why are they reporting this? To stoke paranoia? twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1505518177932955649?s=21[/quote]
I saw that and thought there was a massive psyops head fuck vibe about it.

Some are saying its to get Aleksandr Bortnikov bumped off.

Others are saying it would be a 'Medvedev plan' whereby Putin is still in charge but can say he's not. And that Bortnikov is as bad as Putin. The point being that he is head of the FSB because of his loyalty and similar cruel streak.

Another observation I've seen was this:

Anders Åslund @anders_aslund Mar 12
This is important. Clearly the FSB thought Putin was nuts (he is). Putin didn't dare to arrest their chief (Bortnikov) so he went lower down. SVR has an ever lower view of Putin. This looks promising. Division among the siloviki is what Russian needs.

in response to this: The Times @thetimes Mar 12
A Russian spy chief is said to have been placed under house arrest in a sign that President Putin is seeking to blame the security services for the stalled invasion of Ukraine

That suggests that Bortnikov was certainly being given the benefit of the doubt / was still trusted by Putin (or this was a direct warning by Putin to Bortnikov).

(Bortnikov was apparently the guy who was responsible for telling Putin the mindset of Ukrainians and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators.)

I have to say it smacks of stirring the shitpot of all that more than something more specific.

Its all very 'Death of Stalin' - indeed that might actually be the joke.

@blueshoes

Redtoothbrush thanks for posting the informative views of Ivan Krastev in De Spiegel on Putin's Uncontrolled Despot Syndrome mindset.

That does not bode well for Ukraine as from reading the article, the only way to stop Putin, short of risking a nuclear war, is for the Russian war machine in Ukraine to come to a juddering halt. How many Ukrainian lives would have been lost before we get to that point.

The thought fills me with despair.

I don't think talk of genuine peace talks fits with the views of Krastev and Galeev.

If thats true, you have to see them as playing to a western audience / domestic audience in someway.

The Trent Telenko thread does suggest that the Russian War machine halting is a viable idea though.

Just not soon enough.

Putin isn't going to want to make peace is the problem with the peace talks. If anything, it seems likely to achieve a lull during which he finds another way to take back control of Ukraine.

The ‘humanitarian’ routes to Russia makes sense only to Putin if all Ukrainians = Russian along with the comments about Russia’s rapid fall in population. Chilling is not the word.

@RedToothBrush that was an interesting read, thank you.

What a fucking pissartist Bojo is.

I said on another thread that Russian soldiers have been deliberately destroying or stealing farming equipment. As well as crops for human consumption Ukraine is also one of the main producers of animal feed. Reuters reported that farmers may be facing the possibility of slaughtering dairy herds, a move which would have a knock-on effect for decades.

It will Esma but I think that if the war is settled, there will bea LOT of reconstruction money coming in.

Article in The Guardian which would suggest Russian bots targeting MN may not be so far fetched after all:

The Internet Research Agency has been exposed in the past for paying Russia-based bloggers £500 a month to flood the internet with pro-Putin comments on chat forums, social networks and the comment sections of western publications. Government investigators also claim Russian intelligence supports international news and analysis websites which promote the Kremlin’s view of the Ukraine invasion.
Full article:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/west-hits-vladimir-putins-fake-news-factories-with-wave-of-sanctions?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

It is dairy herds outside of Ukraine that face slaughter, so it's not a question of reconstruction money helping. It's another potential knock-on effect on world food prices.

@EsmaCannonball

I said on another thread that Russian soldiers have been deliberately destroying or stealing farming equipment. As well as crops for human consumption Ukraine is also one of the main producers of animal feed. Reuters reported that farmers may be facing the possibility of slaughtering dairy herds, a move which would have a knock-on effect for decades.

Yeah also seen. This is a war crime btw.

I think part of the narrative is that liberal Western ideas of human rights are something seen as a threat to Russian ideas of state and control.

Such sorched earth tactics are seen as legitimate in war if your mindset is more Genghis Khan / pure Sun Tzu.

Putin sees our unwillingness to use as a sign of weakness because it strikes at the heart of Western identity and horror. Thats part of the issue.

He wants us to see atrocities and then to say thats what we did elsewhere as a way to undermine / scare domestically and to divide and conquer with other parts of the rest of the world.

When we talk of war crimes we have to understand these are western values and not shared internationally whether we think they are or not.