Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion Part 14

999 replies

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 14:49

New thread

OP posts:
Thread gallery
25
ClaudineClare · 20/03/2022 09:29

@prettybird

I remember the anti-war demonstrations about the Iraq War. Millions marched against the war across the UK (and across the world) - including dh and me. At least we were able to do so without fear of being arrested - and the media was able to report on the protests.
I was there too, with my then 72 year old mum.It was amazing to see so many people there.
K4fkaesque · 20/03/2022 09:30

[quote peridito]@FatCatThinCat would that be the most recent eruption of Krakatoa last year or the big one in nineteenth century ?

Sorry to be dense ![/quote]
Well, the 19th century Krakatoa eruption was equivalent to around 200 megatons (millions of tons) of TNT. This is around 13,000 times the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

The largest thermonuclear bomb ever tested was around 50 megatons, so a quarter the size of the Krakatoa eruption. But need to stress that this was not a practical weapon.

Modern nuclear weapons are actually a lot smaller than they used to be at the height of the cold war (They are far more accurate so don't need as much power to destroy their target). Average nowadays is around half a megaton (still about 20 times as big as Hiroshima) so FatCatThinCat is correct that the Krakatoa eruption was equivalent to hundreds of nuclear bombs.

The rub of course is that there are around 14,000 active nuclear weapons in the world today, mostly in the arsenals of the USA and Russia.

ScrollingLeaves · 20/03/2022 09:31

“ClaudineClare

I haven't been on this thread much snd haven't caught up with it, so am probably posting about something you all know about. The news about women and children being forcibly taken to Russia is absolutely bone chilling.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-crisis-claims-mariupol-women-and-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia“

It is bone chilling. Does anyone know if these are the same women and children as those reported to us in the news a couple of days ago as having managed to get out but having apparently chosen the route that leads to Russia?

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 20/03/2022 09:33

@bluetongue

I’m really struggling to mentally deal with the way Russia is targeting and killing civilians. Then to let those that live to pretty much starve to death or forcing them to Russia.

Bombing hospitals and that theatre with ‘children’ written on it. It actually makes me feel physically sick.

May there be some kind of resolution to this soon

Unfortunately the deliberately targeting civilians is what Russia (and Asad) does. See Syria. Also targeting the aid workers and rescuers trying to get people out of targeted buildings, targeting markets and bread queues. If the coordinates are given to the UN as safe zones Russia use them as targets.

Taking civilians prisoner is a new tactic I think but he needs to show Russian people that he is rescuing millions of people.

prettybird · 20/03/2022 09:37

@ClaudineClare - I was at the one in Glasgow. Supposedly only 20,000 were there - yet the 2 mile long very wide road was full of people walking very slowly while both the destination (the car park out the SECC) had filled up (and people having to leave to allow the new arrivals in) and people were still queuing to leave Glasgow Green (also still full - and it's not a small park). I've run the London Marathon twice and know what 25,000 people look like Confused

The discrepancy was explained that week in a letter to the Herald: the police had manned for a demonstration of 20,000 people, ergo there were only 20,000 people there GrinHmm

Tuba437 · 20/03/2022 09:39

Sunak has said this morning that peace talk signs are encouraging. Hopefully they know more than we do. Although he also said there has to be some skepticism about them.

peridito · 20/03/2022 09:39

re people being rounded up from basements and taken to Russia -am I the only one who tells myself that this is misinformation to make Russia's action seem ever more hideous ?

I think ,in my heart ,I know I'm burying my head in the sand .

Possibly a development of the Russian soldiers forcing sheltering people out into the open ,which refugees who have escaped to Poland have reported .And yes I know horrific ,but perhaps not quite as horrific as the first scenario?
edition.cnn.com/2022/03/19/europe/mariupol-shelter-commander-ukraine-intl/index.html

But there do seem to be humanitarian corridors

Across Ukraine, evacuations from cities continued on Saturday along eight of 10 humanitarian corridors, said the deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk. A total of 6,623 people were evacuated, including 4,128 from Mariupol, the scene of some of the war’s worst suffering
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-crisis-claims-mariupol-women-and-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia.

ClaudineClare · 20/03/2022 09:44

re people being rounded up from basements and taken to Russia -am I the only one who tells myself that this is misinformation to make Russia's action seem ever more hideous ?

That also occurred to me, as the reports are unconfirmed as yet. It would be a very wicked thing to lie about though.

ScrollingLeaves · 20/03/2022 09:44

“MissConductUS

I'm pleased I could help @MarshaBradyo. 😊

I recall watching the debate and the exchange they had about it.”

I am not sure if anyone has already posted this 1998 Simpson’s episode about Russia.
One of the creators mentioned he had not foretold Putin, just that for him he’d spent so much of his lifetime feeling the threat of Russia that the end of the Cold War didn’t feel permanent. (My paraphrase)

www.google.com/search?q=Simpsons+Russia&rlz=1CDGOYI_enES868ES869&oq=Simpsons+Russia&aqs=chrome..69i57j46i512j0i512l4.9330j0j4&hl=en-GB&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgdii=1HzFUdWZoS1kmM&imgrc=cEpxJI515TBrKM

ParsleySageRosemary · 20/03/2022 09:47

Russian claims of Ukraine weapon development were made out of the blue, not long before invasion, and were never accompanied by any proof. When such things have been asserted in the past, the first responses have been calls for programmes of international inspections and observations.

I can’t see it as anything but another pretext, with an added attempt at confusing popular opinion in the West following Iraq. The obsession with assertions of American involvement are telling too. There is no room for recognition of sovereignty European-style in there at all. Just big alpha male looking in paranoia for another alpha male to square off against.

Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 09:49

.... is there a problem with PMing atm? Trying to reply to two posters who pm'd me yesterday evening and getting a weird message " success "

TargusEasting · 20/03/2022 09:55

Bellingcat has some resources that could potentially be used as war crime evidence (for what that may be worth). Pictures are backed up with geolocations. It is shocking how many schools have been targeted by Russian forces across Ukraine.
maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

MagicFox · 20/03/2022 09:56

Interesting interview with Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba: english.nv.ua/nation/foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-no-matter-how-difficult-it-may-be-we-cannot-give-up-50225539.html

OP posts:
TargusEasting · 20/03/2022 09:57

@ParsleySageRosemary
The UN agrees with you.
news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114272

TargusEasting · 20/03/2022 10:03

Bellingcat also have a newer interactive timeline of direct attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure by Russian forces.
www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/03/17/hospitals-bombed-and-apartments-destroyed-mapping-incidents-of-civilian-harm-in-ukraine/

I have donated directly to Ukraine appeals but I am also going to make a donation to Bellingcat because I believe their work is as equally important.

RedToothBrush · 20/03/2022 10:03

While I think it is possible of course that Putin has a paraprhenia , I think it is equally likely he has UDS. This is Uncontrolled Despot Syndrome, which manifests when people have had far too much power, for far too long, with no one challenging them.

Funnily enough I've just read this article in De Spiegel which pretty much explains this.

www.spiegel.de/international/world/ivan-krastev-on-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-putin-lives-in-historic-analogies-and-metaphors-a-1d043090-1111-4829-be90-c20fd5786288
"Putin Lives in Historic Analogies and Metaphors"
Political scientist Ivan Krastev is an astute observer of Vladimir Putin. In an interview, he speaks of the Russian president's isolation, his understanding of Russian history and how he has become a prisoner of his own rhetoric.

Krastev: If you’ve been in power for 20 years in an authoritarian state, nobody dares to contradict you anymore. You have established a system, you have become the system yourself, and you can’t imagine that the entire country doesn’t reflect that. You also can’t imagine there being anybody who could be an adequate successor. So, you have to solve all problems yourself for as long as you are alive. For Putin, Russia has long since ceased being a country in the standard sense; it is a kind of historic, 1,000-year-old body.

And

He considered the fact that primarily women were responsible for Russia policy in the Obama administration to be an intentional attempt to humiliate him. The hypocrisy of the West has become an obsession of his, and it is reflected in everything the Russian government does. Did you know that in parts of his declaration on the annexation of Crimea, he took passages almost verbatim from the Kosovo declaration of independence, which was supported by the West? Or that the attack on Kyiv began with the destruction of the television tower just as NATO attacked the television tower in Belgrade in 1999?

DER SPIEGEL: Why does he do such things?

Krastev: Because he wants to teach us a lesson. Because he wants to tell us: I have learned from you. Even if that means doing exactly that for which he hates us. On that evening in Sochi, he expressed outrage that the annexation of the Crimea had been compared with Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. Putin lives in historic analogies and metaphors. Those who are enemies of eternal Russia must be Nazis. And so, he was quick to portray the conflicts in the Donbas as a genocide. Putin’s overstatements became so extreme that they no longer had any connection to reality. He has become hostage to his own rhetoric.

And

In Putin’s view, Ukraine committed the greatest crime imaginable: It betrayed Russia.

DER SPIEGEL: In the spy novels of John le Carré, everything hinges on betrayal.

Krastev: It should also be mentioned that the Western media has contributed to creating a false image of Putin. First, they say that Putin is corrupt. That is true. But does it explain his politics? Putin has been the leader of a nuclear power for 20 years. He thinks in terms of history, betrayal and malice. For such a person, corruption is merely an instrument of power. Money may have been important to Putin when he was younger, but it isn’t any longer. Second, they say that Putin is a cynical gambler, a trickster. In 2011, Putin said that the protests against him had been organized by the American Embassy. Western analysts said that was propaganda, because he knew that wasn’t true. During that dinner, it became clear to me: He really believes it. In his understanding of history, things never happen spontaneously. If people demonstrate, he doesn’t ask: Why are they out on the streets? He asks: Who sent them? When we take him at his word, he won’t surprise us anymore. If you read his essay from July of last year, in which he wrote that Ukrainians and Russians are a single people and he would never accept an anti-Russian Ukraine, you find out exactly what his intentions are. And third, they say that Putin is somebody who is extremely strategic and tactical.

And

Putin sees himself as the father of the Russian nation. Perhaps he is, perhaps he’s not, but one thing is clear: Putin unintentionally became the father of the Ukrainian nation. It was the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas that initially created a Ukrainian identity, one which is rooted in two principles: opposition to Russia, and opposition to Putin. Now, he finds himself in a situation that we know from Russian literature, when the father says to his son: I have created you, but now I must kill you. At the same time, Putin is destroying precisely that Russian identity that he is constantly talking about. In 2014, a large majority of Russians supported the annexation of Crimea.

And

DER SPIEGEL: There are those photos of Putin sitting at an endlessly long table, far away from other meeting participants. A recent one showed him with advisers in the Kremlin at the beginning of the invasion. The photos certainly cannot be an accident, but what is Putin’s message?

Krastev: There appears to be a deep obsession with COVID in his circle. Plus, Putin has always been seen as someone who is far away from his advisers and from the political elite. There is a certain solitude surrounding him, one that is somehow reflective of Russia’s solitude. Which is why he’s not concerned about Russia’s isolation, since he, himself is alone. He also sees himself as the only one who really understands what is going on. I was shocked by that video showing him meeting with the Russian Security Council. All of these important figures who clearly didn’t know what was expected of them and felt uncomfortable because they of course knew that they could never show any dissent, even though some of them are likely concerned about the self-destructive path Russia is now on. And then there was Putin’s aggressive, humiliating dominance, openly demonstrating that he didn’t share their views and that he didn’t care at all about what they had to say.

And

DER SPIEGEL: What narrative?

Krastev: That Russia is a victim. You can criticize the Ukrainian government and reject the West, but when you say that Zelenskyy is a Nazi, that’s not just absurd, it destroys the world’s post-World War II intellectual and moral foundation. One of the most important rules is that you’re not allowed to trivialize Nazism. And he also violated another important post-Cold War rule: Don’t talk about nuclear weapons. The weapons are there, they always have been. We know that Russia has them. We know that the U.S. has them. But in the last 30 years, politicians have agreed not to discuss them, much less threaten to use them. On the third day of the war, as the invasion was stumbling, that’s exactly what Putin started to do. And warning that Ukraine could acquire and use them. That is brutal, and it’s also a bit dumb: If you are hoping for appeasement from the West, you should present a story that people will believe. But there isn’t one.

DER SPIEGEL: Is Putin so isolated that he could simply push the nuclear button on his own?

Krastev: His isolation could lead him to do anything. On the other hand, the situation is so challenging that he could pursue Nixon’s madman strategy.

DER SPIEGEL: For a time during the Vietnam War, U.S. President Richard Nixon allegedly pursued a strategy of trying to seem so irrational and angry that he would even use nuclear weapons, all in an attempt to force North Vietnam to surrender. As we know, the tactic didn’t work. On the other hand, Nixon may well have been a bit off – depression, insomnia, alcohol.

And

DER SPIEGEL: Analysts believe Putin is surprised that his plans didn’t work out as he thought they would.

Krastev: Because the Ukrainians are defending themselves and Zelenskyy stayed in Kyiv. Putin must realize that simply killing Zelenskyy won’t bring things to an end. Normal Ukrainians way out in the countryside are confronting Russian soldiers and shouting: Go back! What are you doing here? The soldiers don’t have answers. The sanctions will also have surprised him. Putin’s image of the West is something like a caricature. It’s as if the condition of the West reminds him of the final days of the Soviet Union. It happened to us, now it’s their turn. They are collapsing. Putin thought that Europe would try to dodge difficult decisions. The sanctions changed everything. They change the daily lives of the Russian middle class. They used to just be observers, but now they can feel the effects of Putin’s politics firsthand.

And

Our world has changed. We used to be in a postwar world, now we are in a prewar world. That is the change, and it is taking place in people’s heads.
[RTB - my bold]

And

Krastev: It is a situation like in the 19th century. Russia as a classic imperial power. And Ukraine in an anti-colonialist fight against it. And that is, of course, a romantic constellation. Again, if you follow the Russian narrative for the war, there are no Ukrainians because they are actually Russians, while the real enemies are the Nazis and the Americans. So there are only Russians and anti-Russians

And

DER SPIEGEL: In your research, you have long focused on the relationship between politics and demography. Does that play a role here?

Krastev: Absolutely. Putin has a certain demographic fixation. Since the publication of his essay last summer, he has said on several occasions that had there been no revolution and had the Soviet Union not collapsed, Russia would today have a population of 500 million. He believes that Russia needs the men and women of Ukraine to survive in the new world. On top of that, the pandemic is thought to have caused 1 million deaths in Russia and the country’s birthrate has dropped. Russia is a vast territory that is continuing to depopulate. A large number of labor migrants, most of them from Central Asia, are arriving, to be sure, but the Slavic core of the country is shrinking, which is why Belarus and Ukraine offer the promise of a kind of demographic consolidation. It’s not about the territory of Ukraine, but about the Ukrainian people.

And

DER SPIEGEL: Because it is easier to identify the enemy.

Krastev: This crisis has destroyed a couple of stereotypes. The Germans have slaughtered two sacred cows. Nord Stream 2 as a symbol of German mercantilism, and pacifism as a symbol of German moralism. Even stereotypes about Eastern Europe have disappeared. Suddenly, the unempathetic East is bending over backwards to take in refugees. And all that is happening because there is an identifiable enemy. The Polish government hasn’t suddenly become more democratic in the last two weeks, but it did realize that the true threat to its sovereignty isn’t coming from Brussels, but from Moscow

And

DER SPIEGEL: We are betraying the freedom of opinion?

Krastev: Perhaps. Because of the pandemic and this war, the state again plays a larger role. In the pandemic, it was the welfare state that cared for its citizens and kept them alive. In this war, it is the security state that doesn’t just protect its citizens, but could also demand something from them: Namely, the readiness to make sacrifices. A friend of mine works at one of the biggest business schools. I told him: Everything you are teaching is useless. Just as useless as teaching socialism studies was in 1990. The world of globalization and free trade, in which the economy was only interested in bottom lines and not in politics, will be over. We don’t know what will happen in Russia after Putin, or in Europe, which currently finds itself in a romantic phase. But we shouldn’t make the same mistakes as in 1989. Back then, we thought the East would change dramatically, but not the West. Now, Russia is going to change dramatically. But so will we.

Its really worth reading in companionship with Kamil Galeev's analysis.

He also points to Nazi = anyone not Russian in the same sense as there is only Russian and Anti-Russian in Putins head.

He's also touched on the demographic issue (i believe that i saw one the other day about Russia being well on its way to being 50% Islamic) and how so many Russian soliders are ethnic minorities and how part of Putins problem with soliders is that the Russian of old simply had a massive excess of young men so it could afford for them to be dispensible. Thats simply no longer true. The army is looked down on. Those who get drafted are low status and viewed through the lens of dispensible.

He also talks about how theres is a soviet myth about how it was able to autarkic and self sufficient. And how its actually bullshit. But if Putin is stuck in all these historic narratives he probably believes it possible. That would mean he has to look torwards china and if China says no, he has an issue.

If this analysis is true - and I think its better than many which tend to look at things through the lens of the West, Putin isn't going to want to make peace. Cos its all or nothing about Russia’s very existance in his head. Every bit as much as its about Ukraines. If its about people and not land thats also deeply problematic.

I don't know if this is how Putin really is thinking. But i certainly don't buy into mad, crazy idea either. I think he is rational based on his own view of the world and he has radicalised in that paranoia of isolation. This doesn't fit with modern reality in any sense and this entire war is in this sense that utterly unravelling bit by bit, with every lie and corrupt issue suddenly amplifying and being unable to be hidden from the top anymore.

I really believe in the concept of material reality being the great barrier that ultimately can only ever be hidden for a period before it ensures a political collapse of an idea or ideology that has run away with itself unchallenged. Periods in history which value this and look to science and understanding are generally golden ages. Period which become mired in disinformation, corruption, extreme ideology and censorship aren't so great to live through. The Western problem here may well rest on Putin showing us this to prove a point - our hypocrisy and own increase in suppression of the truth doesn't help us much.

ParsleySageRosemary · 20/03/2022 10:05

Always nice when a big organisation has the same thought! Thanks for the link.

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 20/03/2022 10:06

@Ijsbear

.... is there a problem with PMing atm? Trying to reply to two posters who pm'd me yesterday evening and getting a weird message " success "
I’m getting that too now. I saw something about mumsmet replatforming soon though so could it be related to that? Think they wanted testers but I didn’t read any further than the headline
Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 10:09

[quote Yeahthat]@PaperTyger

He also used Putin's tactic of increasing their readiness state.

About Trump - if we take him at his word (or as he was caught on the phone call saying) then he actually threatened Putin with bombing Moscow in response to any invasion of Ukraine.[/quote]
He did? Fuck. Well that's really going to help isnt it? I bet Putin's got that ready to lauch on state media if he hasn't already.

I suppose that for all the Russian money that got Trump into power, Trump's irrationality was something that even Putin feared.

Journalists reporting that Russia was unable to re-supply from Belarus to Ukraine today as Belarusian railway workers have sabotaged the lines. That's more like it.

Tiny bit of good news.

toastfiend Ultimately, he's a product of his background and environment. He was a KGB agent, he would have been trained and hardened and formed very specifically into the kind of man we see now. It doesn't mean he's mad.

Exactly this!! He's very clever with a trained talent for manipulation and a long term perspective.

When people talk about West showing strength can you be explicit on what you mean? Keeping Cold War, earlier sanctions, showing distrust prior and acting on it in what way specifically Actually I think that withstanding Putin's machinations would have had to come from within the Western democratic systems. If the will had been there to stop allowing Russian donations to political parties/campaigns in the US and the UK, if there had been the ability in Germany to perceive and do something about Gerhard Schroder being Putin's man, and if there had been some balance and honesty in all media instead of pushing just one line, we'd have been stronger from within. And not going into Iraq the second time, or into Afghanistan. I still think that the USA created the situation where Middle-easterners highly resented them to the point of al'qaeda being born, the Twin Towers, and then the USA went in militarily and caused untold more numbers of deaths.

Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 10:11

I’m getting that too now. I saw something about mumsmet replatforming soon though so could it be related to that? Think they wanted testers but I didn’t read any further than the headline

Seems such a snide little message though. I wonder if there's been a hack? possibly paranoid

Anyway, @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway, thanks very much for your message and sorry I can't reply!

Same to @Papertyger.

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 20/03/2022 10:12

[quote TargusEasting]@ParsleySageRosemary
The UN agrees with you.
news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114272[/quote]
From this article

Russian ambassador
“also cited proof of studies into how such illnesses could pass from bats into humans, adding that use of biological weapons could be “easily dressed up as naturally occurring”

Is this setting the stage for China to admit to covid having been a lab leak? (I’d still say accidental, if they’d wanted to do it they’d have kept it away from China borders).
I know I’ve seen things very recently were scientists in the west have recently ish seemed to accept this is most likely what happened despite the initial denials they made in the first year. (Did they think this all along but needed the world to not panic?)

RagzRebooted · 20/03/2022 10:19

No erotic Putin dream, but I did dream that Zelensky had been killed. Pleased to see this isn't true! I do wonder what would happen if he did though.

RedToothBrush · 20/03/2022 10:21

The last two messages of that Trent Telenko thread are really interesting and worth thinking about

The cumulative effects of all these factors leads to horrendous levels of Russian Army Truck fleet operational attrition.

Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.

Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE.

Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.

Remember the estimation on when the Russian economy starts to go into freefall is pretty much 5th April to total collapse by June.

If that's true, not only will there not be the capability to provide logistics but there won't be logistics to provide.

I think that kind of time limits the Russian army to the end of April with mid May perhaps being on the more generous side. I think there's something either upthread or overnight on how there seems to be a slowdown on air assault / missiles to Kharkiv.

This would also put pressure on launching an offensive to the West of the country to prevent incoming supplies into Ukraine to counter the logistics issues Russia is facing (would explain the Belarusian troop build up fear).

That does put things in a much more positive light - if the Ukrainians can hold on. But also its the question of just how much damage can be done and the humanitarian cost in the meantime.

And it doesn't solve the 'what next' question.

Tuba437 · 20/03/2022 10:33

Some more positive words on peace talks here.

Personally I think a ceasefire will be agreed on the basis of some sanctions being lifted. Agreements on not joining nato and neutrality. However I think the Russian forces will only retreat to crimea and donbass. While those details are sorted out. This way Putin can claim he's won with some sanctions bringing relief to their economy. The bloodshed stops (yet the threat will still remain as they will still be in Russian controlled areas) to use as leverage for Zelenskey to give up some of the land.

Obviously this is not ideal for Ukraine yet it will hopefully stop the hostilities while Putin will spin a victory even though the west will know he really failed.

Ukraine Invasion Part 14
Swipe left for the next trending thread