Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

@AfraidToRun

As far as I know, the Japanese did not use a nuclear bomb on pearl harbour.

I'm also finding it difficult to hear people use words like psychotic and schizophrenia to describe Putin, perhaps he is/has it but I worry these words are used carelessly at times when they have very real and significant meaning to sufferers and their families. He's clearly a very despicable human being but they aren't the same thing.

While I think it is possible of course that Putin has a paraprhenia , I think it is equally likely he has UDS. This is Uncontrolled Despot Syndrome, which manifests when people have had far too much power, for far too long, with no one challenging them.

It’s a bit annoying as I didn’t get the year but found a piece really interesting today

A talk in early 2000s where a US politician was asked what the biggest future geopolitical threat was and he said Russia

He was roundly scoffed at by debater who said come on it’s not the 1980s anymore.

I do think the direction of travel was a kind of optimism that moved away from past damage etc

[quote Yeahthat]@PaperTyger

To be clear, I'm glad that our leaders are taking care to walk what is a very delicate line in dealing with the regime of a psychotic dictator.

And Blair doesn't have a good track record in making decisions on whether or not to rule out military intervention.

But we may have put ourselves in a weak bargaining position from the beginning.[/quote]
Agree with first two lines, I don’t mind the clarity tbh

@Shuuu

Absolutely. It's the same argument for preemptive war. We've also played our part in making the international order what is - though nominally a rules-based system - essentially anarchy with international bodies no more than tools of powerful states. The same politicians now calling for Putin to face a war crimes tribunal would never level the same charge against Bush or Blair. Indeed, some of them were part of their administrations.

@MarshaBradyo

It’s a bit annoying as I didn’t get the year but found a piece really interesting today

A talk in early 2000s where a US politician was asked what the biggest future geopolitical threat was and he said Russia

He was roundly scoffed at by debater who said come on it’s not the 1980s anymore.

I do think the direction of travel was a kind of optimism that moved away from past damage etc

It was Mitt Romney in the 2012 Presidential election debates with Obama, who mocked him for it.

abcnews.go.com/Politics/years-mitt-romney-finally-credit-warnings-russia/story?id=61330530

Putting aside nuclear weapons for a moment, I watching the news of resupply to both sides with interest. It's no longer a flash war but something that will grind on until one (or both) sides are exhausted. Putin still has the numbers but he needs to keep them fed, armed and led in a large, hostile land. Rumour has it, the Ukrainians have targeted the railway lines. That's before we think about the internal pressures facing Russia, with the sanctions.

Likewise, Ukraine has the local support and help coming from the EU/USA but again it's a case of logistics; you can't get food into a cut off area like Mauripol.

I'm beginning to wonder how long Putin can afford to keep this up. Yes, wars can drag on for years but that requires resupply bases in safe spots.

MissConduct thank you!

It was very interesting but I only caught half of it, will read - was bugging me as missed crucial part ie who and when

@MarshaBradyo

But how about deterrence and maintaining the ability to credibly threaten? Even the crushing economic sanctions which we've now applied - these only began to be discussed after he'd invaded, so were useless as a deterrent. Same applies to the supply of weapons which greatly improved Ukraine's defensive capability.

I'm pleased I could help @MarshaBradyo. 😊

I recall watching the debate and the exchange they had about it.

I've just finished watching the film about the Kursk. It's a dramatisation so obviously there are some factual errors/poetic license.

However having looked at other sources, the premise of the movie, that a mixture of national pride, military incompetence, poorly maintained equipment and an unwillingness to provide realistic assessments of the situation to Moscow was the cause of the failure to rescue the submariners who survived the initial explosion; men who could have otherwise survived.

In Russia the cause of the tragedy and the inept response to it was whitewashed by state media and support for Putin remained.

In that context it's no surprise that we are seeing the same again.

In reference to a post by RTB above, the reports from Kharkiv (where a substantial proportion of the population is Russian speaking) that there is now a fierce backlash against the Russian people is understandable in the context that many have had relatives in Russia respond to their experiences of being shelled as fake news or that the attacks were made by Ukrainian Nazi's.

They are angry at seeing an entire country closing their eyes as to what is happening.

For my part I cannot conceive that the majority of Russians buy into "a special operation". They know what's happening. The same way the majority of the German population knew what was happening to their Jewish friends and neighbours in WW2.

They are simply making a choice to buy into the rhetoric of the state and unlike the Ukrainians lack the will to find their own voice because the path of least resistance is the easiest.

We too in the West have lacked "will" in the 20 years since Putin became President. We've tried to charm and appease him without understanding that the only characteristic he values is strength.

I don't think peace talks will be effective because Putin isn't operating in good faith.

That said I don't think we are at the brink of a nuclear engagement.

Rather I believe we will see a long war of attrition where who ultimately prevails will depend on the West's ability to avoid compassion fatigue and the impact of economic sanctions on our economies to keep supplying Ukraine with the wherewithal to defeat Russian forces.

@FatCatThinCat would that be the most recent eruption of Krakatoa last year or the big one in nineteenth century ?

Sorry to be dense !

I’ve been thinking about the idea that the West have been weak when they should have been strong each time it’s mentioned on here and it still doesn’t sit right to me for a few reasons.

The Kursk movie is a good example of the two mindsets at the time. Bread sums it up well on the Putin side but on the side of Britain and elsewhere it was to help. It was a display of international openness and effort to supply and cross any boundaries. I would reframe that away from the word weak to more positive attributes.

Then there is Ukraine and the idea they could be more neutral, but looking at footage from 2014 it’s real and raw human emotions that are hard to cap, so you have that strong force growing that is hard to curtail.

Then the idea that sanctions or weapons earlier could have stopped Putin, they are not stopping him now intact his response was a defiant illegal sanctions etc. and earlier weapons would be you are interfering. So would his strong reaction have been different when there was a lower justification for them being there?

When people talk about West showing strength can you be explicit on what you mean? Keeping Cold War, earlier sanctions, showing distrust prior and acting on it in what way specifically

This took ages to write in the sun before dc get come down so am letting out thoughts before day starts.,

I’m really struggling to mentally deal with the way Russia is targeting and killing civilians. Then to let those that live to pretty much starve to death or forcing them to Russia.

Bombing hospitals and that theatre with ‘children’ written on it. It actually makes me feel physically sick.

May there be some kind of resolution to this soon

@MarshaBradyo

When people talk about West showing strength can you be explicit on what you mean? Keeping Cold War, earlier sanctions, showing distrust prior and acting on it in what way specifically

Fair point, fair question..

If Putin is contained this time around and we want to keep him and his kind contained then some serious thoughts are going to have to be given to matters such as defence spending in the west, reliance on cheap energy, cheapish imports etc

Once this is over it will be interesting to see how much willingness there is amongst the general population, not just the politicians, to confront such issues….will for example increased defence spending be a vote winner?

V interesting thread about the terrible state of Russian trucks

mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1505370275273183239

I think that the West has moved on from the attitudes of the cold war, especially as many former Iron Curtain countries have turned to the west politically. Technology has hastened globalisation.

Ostensibly Russia had changed, except it's leadership has rejected democratic principles and seems to have a very different mindset. Western ideals are seen as a threat, but again, money talks and Russia has been happy to take our money for its oil, gas and natural resources. Tbh given the the US and its allies have sought to impose democracy in various countries around the world I can understand the suspicion of Russia.

Ukraine has a young government - Zelenskyy is nearly thirty years younger than Putin. Many of the Ukrainian ministers, MPs and mayors are young. This yet another big difference between Ukraine and Russia. Euromaidan demonstrated the strength of feeling in Ukraine that it was European integration they wanted.

I don't know how we fix things, but I am hopeful Ukraine will prevail against the invader. I hope it will be soon before many more people are killed.

Angela Merkel was mentioned upthread as someone who understood and got on with Putin. She was the first leader of modern unified Germany who had come from what was East Germany. There was common ground with him.

Deutschland 83 was set against the background of the cold war and operation Able Archer. Although dramatised it's an interesting look at life in the then divided Germany of the early 80s.

[quote AlecTrevelyan006]V interesting thread about the terrible state of Russian trucks

mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1505370275273183239[/quote]
I have read a couple of these and find them really interesting. I would never have realised all that preventative stuff they do and yet from this thread it seems like it makes such a difference when it's actually needed.

@Ijsbear

Tbh right now worrying about nuclear strikes on the UK seems rather small compared to the humanitarian catastrophe going on in Mariupol.

That's what I'm worrying about. I'm not really worried about us, as there's nothing we can do about it anyway, all you can do is make the best of every day. I'm worried about Ukraine, what is happening in Mariupol is horrifying.

“Shuuu

Yeahthat
@Shuuu

I would imagine similar conversations are being held amongst the Russian ppl but with the west being the aggressor.

I read an article in (I think) The Guardian a few days ago where they'd interviewed young Muscovites. While lamenting what they understood to be going on, one stated that Russia had had no choice as Ukraine was developing nuclear weapons.”

If you remember that’s the same excuse USA used with iraq

Re The people if the West and what it was like when Iraq was invaded by Bush and Blair

Yes, I do remember. And I remember going along with it like a confused sheep vaguely wondering what was going on. There had also been news reports previously showing long pipes intercepted somewhere that were purported to possibly be Weapons of Mass Destruction. Now it is so easy to see W of MD as an ad slogan. I also remember how people in general struggled to know the difference, or remember the names of, Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein (alliteration) and both were the devil. But Osama, who was the real target after 9/11, wasn’t even in Iraq. There was also an emotional response to 9/11 which meant that it seemed Blair must back Bush - there was no moral choice.

Then I remember “ Awe and Terror” being unleashed, and seeing Baghdad (?) in flames after being heavily bombed on the news and feeling sick - there was no way there were no civilians killed.

Then, we found out bit by bit no W of MD had been found. To this day who knows if that was mainly a pretext, or what it was. Anyway, it was not a glorious moment in our history.

“HappyWinter

Ijsbear
Tbh right now worrying about nuclear strikes on the UK seems rather small compared to the humanitarian catastrophe going on in Mariupol.

“That's what I'm worrying about. I'm not really worried about us, as there's nothing we can do about it anyway, all you can do is make the best of every day. I'm worried about Ukraine, what is happening in Mariupol is horrifying.“

Yes, and the nightmare of the people with children still under the theatre is horrific. Hell unleashed.

@ScrollingLeaves

“Shuuu

Yeahthat
@Shuuu

I would imagine similar conversations are being held amongst the Russian ppl but with the west being the aggressor.

I read an article in (I think) The Guardian a few days ago where they'd interviewed young Muscovites. While lamenting what they understood to be going on, one stated that Russia had had no choice as Ukraine was developing nuclear weapons.”

If you remember that’s the same excuse USA used with iraq

Re The people if the West and what it was like when Iraq was invaded by Bush and Blair

Yes, I do remember. And I remember going along with it like a confused sheep vaguely wondering what was going on. There had also been news reports previously showing long pipes intercepted somewhere that were purported to possibly be Weapons of Mass Destruction. Now it is so easy to see W of MD as an ad slogan. I also remember how people in general struggled to know the difference, or remember the names of, Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein (alliteration) and both were the devil. But Osama, who was the real target after 9/11, wasn’t even in Iraq. There was also an emotional response to 9/11 which meant that it seemed Blair must back Bush - there was no moral choice.

Then I remember “ Awe and Terror” being unleashed, and seeing Baghdad (?) in flames after being heavily bombed on the news and feeling sick - there was no way there were no civilians killed.

Then, we found out bit by bit no W of MD had been found. To this day who knows if that was mainly a pretext, or what it was. Anyway, it was not a glorious moment in our history.

No it wasn’t and I’m a bit wary of Blair coming back to comment now. And the Sir part.

[quote peridito]@FatCatThinCat would that be the most recent eruption of Krakatoa last year or the big one in nineteenth century ?

Sorry to be dense ![/quote]
The one in the 19th century, I just looked it up, I did not know it had such a powerful impact.

Relieved to wake up this morning, without having had erotic dreams about Putin, or any dreams about Putin at all thank goodness.

I haven't been on this thread much snd haven't caught up with it, so am probably posting about something you all know about. The news about women and children being forcibly taken to Russia is absolutely bone chilling.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-crisis-claims-mariupol-women-and-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia

I remember the anti-war demonstrations about the Iraq War. Millions marched against the war across the UK (and across the world) - including dh and me. At least we were able to do so without fear of being arrested - and the media was able to report on the protests.

Tbh right now worrying about nuclear strikes on the UK seems rather small compared to the humanitarian catastrophe going on in Mariupol

Yes, it is small to worry about something that is very very probably never going to happen. We need to worry about what is happening in the here and now to the people of Ukraine.