Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

Michael A. Horowitz @michaelh992
The Ukrainian military claims that #Russia is pulling units from the other side of the country, including the 155th Separate Marine Brigade (Vladivostok) 40th Separate Marine Brigade (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), to "make up for the losses" suffered by Russian forces in Ukraine.

@Natsku

Is nuclear winter not an issue then?

DH (nuclear scientist) says that it could cause some climatic change but to put it into some perspective, the Krakatoa explosion was the equivalent of hundreds of nuclear bombs going off. It led to a 'nuclear winter' which we still have now but life has gone on.

Neil Hauer @NeilPHauer
Something I've noticed over the past week or so here: almost every Ukrainian I spoke to has made it clear that they blame not only Putin, but the average Russian as much (or more) for this war. The view is: we overthrew our corrupt government, and they accept their murderous one.

The amount of animosity from the average Ukrainian towards the average Russian is already huge and growing more with every single new airstrike, every new civilian death. The effects of this war will last for generations.

And I'm saying this from Kharkiv. I think I saw more virulently anti-Russian views here than anywhere else in the country. The sense of betrayal here, of 'how could they possibly do this to us', is incredible.

The people we watched crawl out of the rubble today told us their relatives in Moscow didn't believe them. Videos of their destroyed home were met with 'it's a fake' or 'Nazis did it.' Every bond between Ukrainians & Russians - familial, cultural, historical - is being broken.

Honestly Kharkiv is crazy. Everything from the center going northwards, just street after street is blown out. Every street littered with glass and burned-out cars and broken buildings.

All of this downplaying the nuclear issue is a bit mad. What if your city was one of the ones hit?! What if you live on the outskirts of that city? I guess I can't imagine being able to accommodate that threat in my mind so easily.

"We urge states considering engagement with the Assad regime to weigh carefully the horrific atrocities visited by the regime on the Syrians over the last decade, as well as the regime’s continuing efforts to deny much of the country access to humanitarian aid & security…"

The problem is - and has been with Putin, we are asking muderous, non democratic shifty, evil states to be good. They Pretend to be good, they keep flooging murdering, fund terorism, come to Ascot meet our Queen, get legtimised enjoy our stunning liberal cities, New York, Paris, London etc whilst back home repress women, brain wash, target gay people, chop peoples heads off etc..Looks at the recent Queen Latifah case.

Its very sweet of Blinken to give them the grace of " we are dissapointed" but really? What have these backward, medieval regimes ever done to uphold the principles we use as a yard stick in the west ???

We need energy sources other than what they give us - we need electric cars to be cheap and we need something to fuel the militaty other than what they give us.

Then we can be free and stop prostituting ourselves to these henious evil regimes.

Key Takeaways:

We now assess that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed;
Russian forces continue efforts to restore momentum to this culminated campaign, but those efforts will likely also fail;
Russian troops will continue trying to advance to within effective artillery range of the center of Kyiv, but prospects for their success are unclear;
The war will likely descend into a phase of bloody stalemate that could last for weeks or months;
Russia will expand efforts to bombard Ukrainian civilians in order to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting (at which the Russians will likely fail);
The most dangerous current Russian advance is from Kherson north toward Kryvyi Rih in an effort to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to surround or take Kryvyi Rih in the coming days, and may not be able to do so at all without massing much larger forces for the effort than they now have available on that axis;
The Russians appear to have abandoned plans to attack Odesa at least in the near term.

This looks good but Russia has far more resources militarily than Ukraine and I wonder if the West will keep on supplying the Ukrainians. From what's been said here the Russian military is very good at enduring and bashing at cities, better at that than at actually taking them. If there is a long term stalemate, I fear that the West's will to support Ukraine will fail and that Putin can win some sort of propeganda war over it.

On the other hand, who could ever have imagined the Ukrainians would have fought back like such tigers? Their resourcefulness is considerable!

I posted earlier saying I was quite heartened by the " Z ralley " because it shows a man who still cares and wants to "engage" with humanity.
Then I saw a DM artcile saying actually he is hiding in a bunker "city" preparing his eltie for nuclear war games !
Then I read that the planes are not quite ready { doomsday}.

Then I read - ( exhausted by this point) that an undisclosed close sourse has said he also suffers from a type of schizophrenia and paranoid rages and unfortunalty - he is not really talking to anyone - not even much to his girls, or other children.

@MagicFox

All of this downplaying the nuclear issue is a bit mad. What if your city was one of the ones hit?! What if you live on the outskirts of that city? I guess I can't imagine being able to accommodate that threat in my mind so easily.

Agree with this.

The scenario also doesn't make sense to me because the missiles have multiple warheads and indepedent targets.

No one was downplaying the threat they were just being more rational than the current rhetoric of "arghhhhh were all going to die"

Would it be terrible? Yes
Would it be a horrific death for those in the blast? Yes
Will life be easy and normal for those in the fallout zone? No

But the point they were making is that we need to carry on living our lives without the constant anxiety of what if Putin presses that button and if he does then we will either be in the blast zone and it will be over for us or we will be in the fallout zone and life would find a way of going on.

"On the other hand, who could ever have imagined the Ukrainians would have fought back like such tigers? Their resourcefulness is considerable!"

They know what fate awaits them, wouldnt we?

Reuters is also reporting that China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at security forum in Beijing that "The sanctions against Russia are getting more and more outrageous," , adding that Russian citizens were being deprived of overseas assets "for no reason". He made the point that Globalisation was being used as a weapon and that NATO were to blame for the conflict

China is balancing both sides though more towards the Russians and I suspect they are resenting the economic effects of the sanctions, which must be rippling around the world including to them. But by taking a pro-russia stance in the general media they are laying the groundwork for greater separation from the West in the coming years and decades.

I don't think we people who live in democracies and under short-term orientated leaders really get how far ahead some leaders of non-democracies goal-set and plan. There are some good points to long termism, not least that a better approach to climate change could be possible.

China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng

^ Do rememeber one can be in the same room as dear leader Boss at a meeting, with an agenda and yet Line M says something diff moments later.

Ie communciations and what the official line is - could be to blame here rather than top mans official policy.

"I don't think we people who live in democracies and under short-term orientated leaders really get how far ahead some leaders of non-democracies goal-set and plan." For china perhaps = - Putin I am not so sure. But yes I think you have picked out a really key difference there.

@Yeahthat

The scenario also doesn't make sense to me because the missiles have multiple warheads and indepedent targets.

I didn’t see the programme but there has always been a credible scenario where one warhead might be used to hit a single target (“selective release”) in order to make a point/encourage negotiation.

Sounds to me like that might be one of the more survivable options being postulated in the broadcast.

Obviously an all out attack on the UK would be a different matter.

China has seemed more pro russian since the start and when I mentioned this and who would stand with russia I got some Rude responses.

It takes a while deosnt it for things to sink in

@Ijsbear

I can't get C4 here, can someone summarise the arguments briefly please?

Prefer the rational and laywoman-level-scientific- approach too.

Ive attempted to take notes as I watched. If anyone wants them shout and I’ll message you, I’m reluctant to just paste them in here in case it frightens people again.

Pretty much it’s what we’ve all said in here though I think. Don’t panic but be aware things have changed is the gist of it. Not at immediate risk of nukes hitting uk. No one was definite about yes he would or no he wouldn’t. I wonder if the what would happen modelling certain scenarios including how far blast and fallout might go will make it into another program, there wasn’t any in this one.

Nuclear winter didn’t even get mentioned.

@Ijsbear

Reuters is also reporting that China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at security forum in Beijing that "The sanctions against Russia are getting more and more outrageous," , adding that Russian citizens were being deprived of overseas assets "for no reason". He made the point that Globalisation was being used as a weapon and that NATO were to blame for the conflict

China is balancing both sides though more towards the Russians and I suspect they are resenting the economic effects of the sanctions, which must be rippling around the world including to them. But by taking a pro-russia stance in the general media they are laying the groundwork for greater separation from the West in the coming years and decades.

I don't think we people who live in democracies and under short-term orientated leaders really get how far ahead some leaders of non-democracies goal-set and plan. There are some good points to long termism, not least that a better approach to climate change could be possible.

Indeed.

@Ijsbear

Reuters is also reporting that China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at security forum in Beijing that "The sanctions against Russia are getting more and more outrageous," , adding that Russian citizens were being deprived of overseas assets "for no reason". He made the point that Globalisation was being used as a weapon and that NATO were to blame for the conflict

China is balancing both sides though more towards the Russians and I suspect they are resenting the economic effects of the sanctions, which must be rippling around the world including to them. But by taking a pro-russia stance in the general media they are laying the groundwork for greater separation from the West in the coming years and decades.

I don't think we people who live in democracies and under short-term orientated leaders really get how far ahead some leaders of non-democracies goal-set and plan. There are some good points to long termism, not least that a better approach to climate change could be possible.

It might have been him interviewed by c4 news yesterday. I posted a link to their you tube of the interview but I may have rambled too much before hand. I found his (or one of his colleagues if it wasn’t him) words very, very chilling.

@PaperTyger Piece of advice. Don’t read the Daily Mail.

He’s had long conversations on the phone with Macron and the German Chancellor, he’s also spoken to the Turkish prime minister recently and the Israeli one too.
So I’m doubting the daily mail’s information on that.
How on earth do they know who he’s been talking to in his private life?!
Supposedly he’s always been very very secretive about his daughters and possible other children by his mistress. And his daughters are in their 30s now! Apparently it’s not even common knowledge if they’re names are what they’re reported as.

So I’d definitely take all of that with a huge pinch of salt.
I’m pretty sure he was there at the rally but they were using some old footage mixed in with the new, when it was put out on TV. I’m not sure why, but some theories is that there was booing in the audience, other theories that the stadium wasn’t as full as they wanted , so they added some extra shots to make it look busier.

Why have we gone back to all the nuclear talk again? I know a PP mentioned they watched something on TV about it but is that the only reason it is being spoken about again or has something else happened?

I've also been reading some things about "peacekeeping missions", could anyone explain if this is happening or if it's just general talk?

@holliem91

Why have we gone back to all the nuclear talk again? I know a PP mentioned they watched something on TV about it but is that the only reason it is being spoken about again or has something else happened?

I've also been reading some things about "peacekeeping missions", could anyone explain if this is happening or if it's just general talk?

Yes it’s just due to the programme don’t worry

As well as reports of residents from Mariupol being forcibly taken to Russia there are also reports of Ukrainians from Donbas being forced at gunpoint to fight on the frontlines against other Ukrainians.

Yeh just chatting about a TV programme that was on. Which, from what I gather, suggested a nuclear war is still pretty unlikely.

As for downplaying the nuclear issue it’s not so much downplaying it as trying to avoid the population hitting full scale panic mode and hysteria settling in. The mere mention of possibility has some scared shitless, and not wanting to carry in with life as normal. That sort of panic in the majority of the population is 1. What putin wants and 2. Could bring our country to a halt at worst.

@notimagain

I’m reading Richard Rhodes The Making of the Atomic Bomb and it’s fascinating

Top book that…if you have the stamina try his follow up “Dark Sun” next.

Thanks for recommendation. He’s an excellent writer

@EsmaCannonball

As well as reports of residents from Mariupol being forcibly taken to Russia there are also reports of Ukrainians from Donbas being forced at gunpoint to fight on the frontlines against other Ukrainians.

well they'll have their heart in that, won't they?

The possible abductions are just awful though. Hard to imagine those people will be able to get back to Ukraine any time in the foreseeable.