@Ijsbear
I wish Merkel would get involved too.
Why aren't there more attacks on Odessa? Is everything concentrating on Mariupol at the moment?
I rather wonder if Putin would settle for a large corridor to the East of the Dneiper. (I imagine Zelensky would quite rightly refuse to give up anything though).
I believe that a lack of attacks on Odesa is being attributed partly due to focusing on Maripol and partly because they haven't got enough marines to do a decent landing atm.
To launch a decent attack the expectation is they need to take Mykolaiv. So far the Ukrainians have done particularly well in the area. The regional head is Vitaliy Kim who has become a national hero because of his defence so far.
Mykolaiv is on a river. As is Voznesensk which was the site of a very significant battle early on (there was a report on it, which detailed how they were picking up Russian bodies a week later). This town/village was the last defendable place before the Southern Nuclear Plant. I'm not sure what the name of the river is, but the point is the Russians have as yet, been unable to progress to the west of this River.
This makes an attack on Odesa (apparently Odesa is the Ukrainian spelling, a double s is Russian).
Anyway, this has happened in Mykolaiv today.
news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-dozens-of-soldiers-feared-dead-after-attack-on-mykolaiv-barracks-while-troops-slept-12570330
Ukraine war: Dozens of soldiers feared dead after attack on Mykolaiv barracks 'while troops slept'
Up to 200 people are thought to have been inside the barracks in Mykolaiv when they were attacked.
So this could well be a significant blow, both in strength and in psycology.
Things in Mariupol, also look to be coming to a close, so the expectation would be that Mykolaiv would be one of the more natural next targets, rather than Odesa.
In terms of Mariupol there are more disturbing reports coming from Ukrainian sources this evening. I stress this is unverified, but there is talk that civilians are being forcibly rounded up and taken to Russia.
The NY Times official line on this is as follows:
Cliff Levy @cliffordlevy
Mariupol official accuses Russian forces of kidnapping thousands of Ukrainians and taking them to Russia, where he says they could be compelled into forced labor.
His claim could not be independently verified, but it was supported by accounts from others.
Mariupol residents said they heard from friends and neighbors who relayed having been taken to Russia without their consent by Russian forces.
"Russians are walking through the basements, and if there are people left there, they forcibly take them.”
Apparently 4000 - 5000 people have been taken across the border to Taganrog with suggestions they are being dispersed to various Russian cities with documents that oblige them to stay in these places for 2 years and get a job. Ukrainian passports have been removed. (Advisor of the Mayor of Mariupol).
Of course with so many people dead / missing etc in Mariupol its going to be difficult to work out what might have happened to many people if these reports are true.
There is also significant fears of a troop build up on the Belarus/Ukrainian border near Poland, with the thought being this is being done to cut off western deliveries. This doesn't sound at all good. From a strategic point of view it makes a lot of sense. Belarus sending in its own troops would mark a clear escalation of the war though and will worry many. Particularly as things move closer to the Polish border.
Finally, the other thing I've noticed today in my first catch up on the day is this:
Reuters is also reporting that China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at security forum in Beijing that "The sanctions against Russia are getting more and more outrageous," , adding that Russian citizens were being deprived of overseas assets "for no reason". He made the point that Globalisation was being used as a weapon and that NATO were to blame for the conflict.
Again this doesn't sound terribly good following Biden's call with Xi.
Re: Syria and UAE. This is being suggested as a natural thing as Assad relied on Russia's support and it now looks likely that they will exit Syria, so Assad needs to look for support elsewhere.
To say this hasn't gone down well in the US, well look at this:
David Cloud @DavidSCloud
Blistering on-record US response to UAE welcoming Bashar al-Assad: “We are profoundly disappointed & troubled by this apparent attempt to legitimize Bashar Al-Assad, who remains responsible & accountable for the death & suffering of countless Syrians,” said State’s Ned Price…1/
“…As Secretary Blinken has reiterated, we do not support efforts to rehabilitate Assad; and we do not support others normalizing relations. We have been clear about this with our partners…” 2/
“…We urge states considering engagement with the Assad regime to weigh carefully the horrific atrocities visited by the regime on the Syrians over the last decade, as well as the regime’s continuing efforts to deny much of the country access to humanitarian aid & security…” 3/
“…The United States will not lift or waive sanctions and we do not support the reconstruction of Syria until there is irreversible progress toward a political solution, which we have not seen…” 4/
“…We believe that stability in Syria and the greater region can only be achieved through a political process that represents the will of all Syrians. We’re committed to working with allies, partners, and the UN toward a durable political solution." 5/
So things today are sounding increasingly bad, and as if Russia, perhaps are beginning to regroup and get a grip.