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Ukraine Invasion Part 14

999 replies

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 14:49

New thread

OP posts:
Thread gallery
25
meditrina · 18/03/2022 21:39

but do you have to be a policeman to stand up to crime? In my view, being a witness of a crime bears significant responsibility

So what course of action are you advocating?

Are you using the genocidal war in Europe starting 1992 as your preferred model of response?

I'm not sure how that could work with UN stymied.

TiddyTidTwo · 18/03/2022 21:41

My thoughts exactly Hills

MarshaBradyo · 18/03/2022 21:46

If everyone involved in this was certain as some posters are on the outcomes there wouldn’t be this amount of energy trying to navigate through.

I’m not sure where the certainty comes from

MagicFox · 18/03/2022 21:52

[quote MagicFox]Those that are demanding NATO intervene might find this analysis about why that's a bad idea useful: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/[/quote]

Just quoting myself as this feels like it might be useful again

OP posts:
EsmaCannonball · 18/03/2022 21:56

The latest Kamil Galeev thread on Twitter is very informative about today's rally and the Z movement. Apparently the Russians are prosecuting nationalists who attempt to hold their own Z gatherings because the Kremlin doesn't want any political movement to go beyond its control.

The Ukrainian government is also warning Ukrainians about malware links that have been sent via email and text.

Yeahthat · 18/03/2022 21:57

@MarshaBradyo

If everyone involved in this was certain as some posters are on the outcomes there wouldn’t be this amount of energy trying to navigate through.

I’m not sure where the certainty comes from

Exactly. The delusion that we're omnipotent is almost touching. Not only are they certain that we can start a war with Russia without a catastrophic escalation, one actually believes that we could remove Putin at will within 24-48 hours.
Inkanta · 18/03/2022 22:00

It's not bolshy to say that Putin needs to be put back in his place. He needs to be shown strength every time he puts even a toe over the line. As for the future, I'm raising my 5 year olds to be strong because this world is not always safe. Humanity has to come first and mass genocide on our watch, when we had the capability and the moral justification to intervene, is not ok. Yes NATO isn't the world police but do you have to be a policeman to stand up to crime? In my view, being a witness of a crime bears significant responsibility

Great post Hill - completely agree with your take.

MarshaBradyo · 18/03/2022 22:01

Wow that tally is something

I see what you all mean now

Ijsbear · 18/03/2022 22:05

which tally?

megynhelena · 18/03/2022 22:07

[quote Bluebellsunderthetrees]@megynhelena I think you have written excellent posts.

Henry Kissinger ( Nobel Peace Prize winner) wrote this article in 2014 about Ukraine. EU/US/West/Russia and Ukraine itself all had
a part to play.
Interesting and sad to read now because no one really did play their part for peace. The first paragraph:

"Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.

Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them."

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html[/quote]
I agree with you about the article, what a shame, that was 2014. I think Boris could do with reading the article too. And there were a number of others linked in the link, with insights from 2014, not acted upon then, still relevant today. I am quoting your post so that the article is linked again in case anyone else wants to read

Just wanted to say thanks too, that is very kind! I only dip in and out of these threads but I have read quite a few of your posts, and the feeling is mutual. I was going to re-post your post on the neo nazis with all the sources you linked - a few threads ago now, but relevant information in relation to what is needed for peace after ceasefire.

MarshaBradyo · 18/03/2022 22:08

Rally - typo

Felt like another world to what’s going on

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 18/03/2022 22:09

@MagicFox I have read the article and there are a lot of valid points. Firstly, let me say I am no military strategist, I am a mumsnetter sharing some facts and subsequently my opinion. Firstly, Putin is a war criminal and should be called one without apology (Biden). I think he has been paid too much attention and I agree with Tony Blair when he says we shouldn't have made any public guarantees of what we would it wouldn't do. We showed our hand and we have done too much tiptoeing. Don't ask me about NFZ because I'm not qualified. For me it's more about our stance rather than our action.

I'm assuming @meditrina you are referring to the Bosnia genocide in 1995? I don't understand the failures around that but am happy to learn from you (not being disingenuous)

EsmaCannonball · 18/03/2022 22:13

Journalists also reporting that Russian state television (there are no alternatives now) has removed all normal programming and replaced it with wall-to-wall propaganda shows.

bluetongue · 18/03/2022 22:43

I find it ironic that Putin is praising the ‘special operation’ to de Nazify Ukraine at a Hitleresque propaganda rally.

What crazy times we live in at the moment.

HappyWinter · 18/03/2022 22:44

Heartbreaking Sad
Ukraine war: Empty prams lined up in Lviv for children killed in war
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60802801

HappyWinter · 18/03/2022 22:45

I don't think I'll ever look at the empty pram in my hallway in the same way ever again.

Alexandra2001 · 18/03/2022 22:48

@MarshaBradyo

If everyone involved in this was certain as some posters are on the outcomes there wouldn’t be this amount of energy trying to navigate through.

I’m not sure where the certainty comes from

If Putin is so unstable we believe he will use Nukes, then the safest thing is to stop re arming and let him have Ukraine, thats the cautious approach!

How did we know that he wouldn't use nukes if we sent in weapons? he said he would but when faced with this opposition, he backed away, despite his warnings.

We could send Ukraine a lot more advanced stuff without direct conflict.

I think Blair is right, we have painted ourselves into a corner, can't do more because we said we wouldn't.

Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 18/03/2022 22:55

Opinion in case it’s not clear…….a bunch of thoughts and musings I’ve had while reading this thread.

Nato is not going to step in for Ukraine, they’ll carry in as they are. Partly that’s because the USA population won’t back boots on the ground. 35 or whatever percent percent isnt even half the population. It’ll take bombs falling a lot closer to home for the American population to back anything other than sending weapons and aid.

More knowledgeable people please correct me if I’ve got bits of this wrong. The UK and France was it along with Russia had signed an agreement that if Ukraine gave its nukes to Russia those countries would protect Ukraine from invasion. Russia lied, they invade but the rest of our countries also lied to a certain extent, I suspect that agreement is why the uk has been involved in training Ukraine soldiers since 2014 if not before. We haven’t stopped putin but we’ve helped them be able to stop him themselves. It’s just they need more help.

Some of the bombs are coming close to the polish border. That’s putin playing with Poland and trying to scare them by look we can reach you if we want.

Cyber attacks are increasing, a lot more pro Russia or just pro nato are bad information is getting through on the internet. It’s extremely hard to tell what’s fake Russian stuff and what’s normal people. Other fires are being stoked again too. Hopefully now more people will not just believe something because they’ve read it twenty times by different posters on Twitter. I’ll also point out here I saw something on Twitter yesterday, an account I reported after is read a few posts. What it was saying was plausible but it’s Twitter so I read more of their posts and started thinking omg I can’t believe they’re saying that. Then I looked closely at the profile picture which was a Z and suddenly the outrageousness of what they were saying made sense, if I’d only seen the one post I wouldn’t have thought them as anything other than someone questioning and offering possibilities in an attempt to understand the other side.

There is no other side in my opinion. Ukraine were nowhere near joining either the eu or nato. America do not have chemical weapon labs in Ukraine.

I would agree if nato went in, that doesn’t mean I’m calling for all out war. It is my opinion to say that’s a risk I would be willing to take to stop the genocide. But then I thought the rest of the world should have our a stop to Syria, I was horrified at the poison in the drinking water and the chemical attacks both of which targeted children.

That doesn’t mean I’m calling for war or for nuclear war or I’m deluded that we are omnipotent. @Yeahthat you’re being mean. “One of them” has an opinion that you disagree with, that doesn’t mean you can be sarcastic and unkind.

Also did anyone else watch c4 news tonight? They and an interview with an ex vice prime minister of Ukraine who said that zelensky cannot agree to no nato ever because it’s in their constitution and would require a majority of mps to vote to remove it. She also said he’d be going against teh populations wishes, the people who are currently fighting to maintain their freedom.

They also had an interview with a Chinese advisor. It seemed to me he was saying that Russia were justified in accusing nato of being aggressive, he said China is the strongest economy in the world and something else that made me worry. He said they were telling both side to stop but when challenged that Ukraine were defending themselves he r seemed to me to imply that nato were being aggressive to putin. I hope I’m reading that wrong and my head was just in a bad place as I saw/listened. I’d actually really appreciate another opinion on that?

Some of the Ukraine parents are fighting to protect their children from being ruled by putin. They want to keep the right to think for themselves and say whatever they want to. I support them in that. I’m quite disappointed (along with a side of wondering if you’re Russian bots) at the people saying just get Ukraine to agree to what he wants and then see if he stops. Surely that should be get out in to stop and then see what Ukraine agree to? The first leaves you feeling safer, but it leaves me feeling a lot more unsafe. If Ukraine loose or give in and accept oppression then other eu countries will be next.

The other day on LBC they had a caller from Bulgaria. He said the prevailing belief there is that nato won’t step in for the little countries, the same as they haven’t helped Ukraine. We broke an agreement with Ukraine so why would we follow through with that agreement for other small countries that don’t have much to offer the bigger members of the alliance? That was one person, and his opinion only, until it’s tested we won’t know if he is right or not. Nor will those countries. Nor will putin. I won’t be surprised if there is an attack on one of the nato countries, thiugh I hope it never happens. I do feel it’s inevitable though.

I think I am actually more scared that putin will abandon the fight in Ukraine and cosy up to China and maybe another country or two and then in ten years time they will jointly attack nato. This will become more likely in my opinion if we start sanctioning China.

AgnesWestern · 18/03/2022 23:00

I know this is an article from last month, but I find it fascinating. The Simpsons have supposedly predicted lots of things that have come to happen.
The latest is the current situation with Russia and Ukraine:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/simpsons-prediction-russia-ukraine-invasion-b2022990.html%3famp

They also predicted Trump as president and Covid, other things including 9/11.
It’s probably up there with conspiracy theories but I’ve found it quite interesting tonight.

ScrollingLeaves · 18/03/2022 23:02

“EsmaCannonball

The latest Kamil Galeev thread on Twitter is very informative about today's rally and the Z movement. Apparently the Russians are prosecuting nationalists who attempt to hold their own Z gatherings because the Kremlin doesn't want any political movement to go beyond its control.

The Ukrainian government is also warning Ukrainians about malware links that have been sent via email and text.“

I looked up those tweets by Kamil Galeev about the reality behind the mass rally because of your post. It is fascinating to read what he says. Conscripting and bussing large groups of public sector workers and students to go to the rally is so far from anything we know. Some people were even driven for a 6 hr journey to the rally then back again.

Terminally ill children at a hospice were formed into a Z outside.

Then I also saw some of his descriptions of the demographics of the army, and suggestions about how to undermine Putin’s war.
Kamil Galeev on Twitter: "How to sabotage Russian war efforts? There are ways to sabotage Russian war capacities by focusing on its three major bottlenecks: demographic, economic & institutional. Let's start with demography. Russian started this war suffering from the shortage of young draftable males🧵 t.co/p8gqhpJZDB" / Twitter

mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504910652690747392/photo/1
mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504585616834457619

Ukraine Invasion Part 14
Ukraine Invasion Part 14
Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway · 18/03/2022 23:07

“ If Putin is so unstable we believe he will use Nukes, then the safest thing is to stop re arming and let him have Ukraine, thats the cautious approach!”

That’s exactly what some posters seem to be advocating. It’s not us being bombed so leave him to it and hope he stops when he’s done with Ukraine. Whilst I understand the fear that causes this thought I don’t understand the selfishness. But I’ve not understood that in the past either. I also don’t understand that train of thought with regards to government policies either mind you. Or even with other issues. But it’s the standard these days, if they’re picking on immigrants they’re leaving me alone so I’ll keep quiet in the hope they don’t decide to pick on my minority group. It’s short term thinking.

MarshaBradyo · 18/03/2022 23:23

I don’t understand the selfishness

I disagree it’s this as most posters have replied they don’t think, or are sure even, that Putin won’t escalate. It’s this that drives the difference

I’m not certain and I don’t know how much more worse it would get. I’m fine with people with far more expertise and information working on the risk assessment and navigating through it.

Others feel more confident in their own assessment of the risk, which is up to them.

Do you think he definitely won’t escalate?

eglantine7 · 18/03/2022 23:26

I agree we should be doing so much more to help Ukrainians. After the initial shock of when he threatened the West, it was clear it was sabre rattling as even Lavrov seemed to say so.
I'm sorry but we are weak. Very weak for allowing this invasion to carry on in spite of real resistance and watching all these war crimes unfold.
The sanctions have hurt the Russian economy but he won't care. We really should be getting involved militarily and demanding a withdrawal.

eglantine7 · 18/03/2022 23:33

I'm more dismayed and terrified by the inaction of the West/ Nato than Putin's nuclear bomb threat.

strawberriesarenot · 18/03/2022 23:39

@eglantine7

I agree we should be doing so much more to help Ukrainians. After the initial shock of when he threatened the West, it was clear it was sabre rattling as even Lavrov seemed to say so. I'm sorry but we are weak. Very weak for allowing this invasion to carry on in spite of real resistance and watching all these war crimes unfold. The sanctions have hurt the Russian economy but he won't care. We really should be getting involved militarily and demanding a withdrawal.
I agree. We are witnessing genocide. The German people said that often no one knew about the death camps, and perhaps that's true. No tv. Limit radio. We know exactly what is going on. We know that right now, while we are snug at home, there are unarmed civilians, including children beginning week 2 in freezing cellars, with no electricity or heat or medication, and very little food. We know their homes are gone for ever. Their communities, their young men, their peace.

As I understand, Putin doesn't have a big red button. He has a chain of command.