Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

At this point I think he definitely will escalate. Especially if China start supplying him with weapons. Every morning I expect a report of chemical weapons or nuclear weapons used in Ukraine. I wouldn’t be surprised to find a report of a target elsewhere, in Europe or in nato borders. He’s tested that nato won’t stop him in Ukraine, that the agreement made when the nuclear weapons were removed/destroyed wouldn’t be upheld, he will want to test other agreements. I think he’s going to push and push. So for me now the best thing would be if Ukraine manage to repel his army around Kyiv and then manage to start pushing them back. He will find a way to spin that to a win, probably by finally coming to an agreement in the peace talks. It’s been decided by better people than me that we can’t go in guns blazing, but imo we should be giving the Ukrainian army everything they need to ensure that they win, that they push the Russians back. And then when they’ve moved back into Russia and are kicking their wounds we need to be very aware that this fight will just have been delayed and next time he will come back with a better army and planning accordingly for how we will help defeat him.

The you tube link someone posted earlier had a sky news interview with an exiled Russian businessman (oligarch? )He was close to putin. He possibly states my train of thought on this much better than I can. In my opinion it’s worth a watch and read of the subtitles.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=OX6ISz0FotU&feature=youtu.be

The c4 news interview with the Chinese academic
www.channel4.com/news/sanctions-on-china-over-russia-links-would-plunge-world-into-global-recession-chinese-academic-saysI’

And here is the Ukrainian former deputy prime minister interview I mentioned also
www.channel4.com/news/abandoning-ambition-to-join-nato-would-be-disastrous-ex-ukraine-deputy-pm-says

I’ve just read the posts from last night.

I’m of the opposite opinion, I think we should de-escalate and focus on peace talks and try to give him an off ramp.

I also think we’d be playing with fire if we tested him and called his bluff. I saw a speech from him prior to the invasion when he said that he knows Russia’s army is not comparable to that of NATO’s and went on to say about Russia’s large nuclear weapons arsenal. So that speaks for itself in my mind.
I assume NATO is thinking along the same lines, hence why they haven’t intervened.

It’s a huge gamble/risk to take. It would mean billions of deaths and injured people. Possibly destroying the planet and eco system. It’s not a risk anyone will take as the consequences would be devastating for everyone on the planet.

@AgnesWestern

I’ve just read the posts from last night.

I’m of the opposite opinion, I think we should de-escalate and focus on peace talks and try to give him an off ramp.

I also think we’d be playing with fire if we tested him and called his bluff. I saw a speech from him prior to the invasion when he said that he knows Russia’s army is not comparable to that of NATO’s and went on to say about Russia’s large nuclear weapons arsenal. So that speaks for itself in my mind.
I assume NATO is thinking along the same lines, hence why they haven’t intervened.

It’s a huge gamble/risk to take. It would mean billions of deaths and injured people. Possibly destroying the planet and eco system. It’s not a risk anyone will take as the consequences would be devastating for everyone on the planet.

I think I agree with you on this one. I wouldn't put anything past him at this point.

Yes, I think intervening militarily gives Putin what he wants, it helps to fund the narrative that @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway mentioned the Chinese ambassador was peddling about Putin having a point regarding NATO aggression. This also reflects Mr Xi's position as implied in the readout of his call with Biden. It would be very dangerous. It might push Russia more clearly together with China - it suits both narratives about the West. There are clear rules for NATO intervention and maybe this will be tested in the future should Putin attack a NATO country but those rules aren't in place now.

Also, there IS intervention: money, weapons, aid. It's not black and white in the "doing nothing" / "doing something" sense when "doing something" only means direct military intervention.

It's bloody awful, it's awful watching what is happening. It makes me sick. But there is a much broader and complex picture here that involves the whole global order and the whole of humanity and we can't just ignore that. Things won't go back to normal with Russia. We have to hope that somebody with a cooler head than us is planning through all the future scenarios and potential responses.

Anyway, that's where I am at the moment. I just don't think it's as simple as somebody mentioned earlier in the thread about being cowardly for not intervening. I think that's binary thinking along the lines of the playground metaphor that keeps being evoked. Grabbing hold of all of the implications and complexities of this is like trying to grab a slippery pig!

Putin's already outlined his demands in his conversation with Erdogan on Wednesday or Thursday. His Nazi-style rally was aimed at bolstering public opinion of him at home. He's already prepping his "off ramp" imo.

Globalisation means governments around the world can't sanction the likes of Russia without damaging themselves too. Yes, the west should have been far more sceptical of Russian investment, but money talks. I'm hoping lessons are learned and that a peace agreement can be reached soon.

@AgnesWestern

I’ve just read the posts from last night.

I’m of the opposite opinion, I think we should de-escalate and focus on peace talks and try to give him an off ramp.

I also think we’d be playing with fire if we tested him and called his bluff. I saw a speech from him prior to the invasion when he said that he knows Russia’s army is not comparable to that of NATO’s and went on to say about Russia’s large nuclear weapons arsenal. So that speaks for itself in my mind.
I assume NATO is thinking along the same lines, hence why they haven’t intervened.

It’s a huge gamble/risk to take. It would mean billions of deaths and injured people. Possibly destroying the planet and eco system. It’s not a risk anyone will take as the consequences would be devastating for everyone on the planet.

Yes I think on balance this is my stance too.

Interesting thread here suggesting the rally may have been faked and spliced with footage from a year ago: twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1505027822569631745?s=21

@MagicFox - I agree. Those countries condemning Putin's invasion are walking a tightrope of trying to help Ukraine without escalating Russia's actions and creating a bigger conflict. This war has exposed the serious problems with Russia's armed forces which will reverberate within Russia. It's a matter of when.

Apologies if this has already been posted, but this BBC article gives excellent historical perspective for what is happening: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60767454

@MarshaBradyo

I don’t understand the selfishness

I disagree it’s this as most posters have replied they don’t think, or are sure even, that Putin won’t escalate. It’s this that drives the difference

I’m not certain and I don’t know how much more worse it would get. I’m fine with people with far more expertise and information working on the risk assessment and navigating through it.

Others feel more confident in their own assessment of the risk, which is up to them.

Do you think he definitely won’t escalate?

there aren't any certainties on what Putin will do, all we know is that he goes in bit by bit, Georgia, Crimea, Syria... push & push see what we will do or not.

What we do know is that 350,000 people are trapped in Mariupol whilst Russia bombs the place 24/7, they have no food, water, medical facilities, if they try and leave, he kills them.

Are we just prepared to sit back and allow him to starve and kill all these people? then move onto to do the same to all the other Ukrainian cities, including Lviv.

If we are, then we are no better than he is.

Poland is integrating 2m refugees, what are we doing? we can't even help those who have left the country, other than give them hours of red tape and weeks waiting to see if they can come to our oh so generous country.

@MagicFox

Yes, I think intervening militarily gives Putin what he wants, it helps to fund the narrative that *@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway* mentioned the Chinese ambassador was peddling about Putin having a point regarding NATO aggression. This also reflects Mr Xi's position as implied in the readout of his call with Biden. It would be very dangerous. It might push Russia more clearly together with China - it suits both narratives about the West. There are clear rules for NATO intervention and maybe this will be tested in the future should Putin attack a NATO country but those rules aren't in place now.

Also, there IS intervention: money, weapons, aid. It's not black and white in the "doing nothing" / "doing something" sense when "doing something" only means direct military intervention.

It's bloody awful, it's awful watching what is happening. It makes me sick. But there is a much broader and complex picture here that involves the whole global order and the whole of humanity and we can't just ignore that. Things won't go back to normal with Russia. We have to hope that somebody with a cooler head than us is planning through all the future scenarios and potential responses.

Anyway, that's where I am at the moment. I just don't think it's as simple as somebody mentioned earlier in the thread about being cowardly for not intervening. I think that's binary thinking along the lines of the playground metaphor that keeps being evoked. Grabbing hold of all of the implications and complexities of this is like trying to grab a slippery pig!

I appreciate this post as it recognises it’s not a simple issue.

Agnes makes good points too.

Bill Browder @Billbrowder
Halliburton, Schlumberger draw back from Russia amid U.S. energy sanctions. This is huge. Without these firms there, Russian oil companies will have serious problems pumping oil

I don’t think Putin is wanting that either to be honest.
I know there are lots of theories about him being terminally ill and wanting to take us all with him but I’m not sure I agree. I think he loves Russia too much.
But if NATO got involved it may escalate into something like that and then it may be difficult for him to pull back on while saving face.
This way, peace talks can happen, possibly an off ramp appears and he can spin a story to his own people about what’s happened, which he will do and we can’t control that.

What's happened to Merkel? Has She commented?

@AgnesWestern

I’ve just read the posts from last night.

I’m of the opposite opinion, I think we should de-escalate and focus on peace talks and try to give him an off ramp.

I also think we’d be playing with fire if we tested him and called his bluff. I saw a speech from him prior to the invasion when he said that he knows Russia’s army is not comparable to that of NATO’s and went on to say about Russia’s large nuclear weapons arsenal. So that speaks for itself in my mind.
I assume NATO is thinking along the same lines, hence why they haven’t intervened.

It’s a huge gamble/risk to take. It would mean billions of deaths and injured people. Possibly destroying the planet and eco system. It’s not a risk anyone will take as the consequences would be devastating for everyone on the planet.

I agree.

Do we reaaaaally want to call his bluff? Ha! I certainly don't.

Individual countries can go in though?
I'e Poland , Romania, France.
They don't have to go in as the NATO alliances?
But Putin can take that risk if he soley attacked those places?

@PaperTyger

Individual countries can go in though? I'e Poland , Romania, France. They don't have to go in as the NATO alliances? But Putin can take that risk if he soley attacked those places?

If he retaliates against those individual states it would still trigger Article 5 so same scenario.

One of my concerns is this...

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has showed Putin that his army isn't all that. I have a friend at work who is Polish and she is in a Facebook group with Ukrainians that are showing real footage of what's going on and I know its probably biased to some extent but it's very clear the Ukrainian army are very well trained in comparison to the Russian army.

If Putin does happen to find an off ramp or if the peace talks do come to something, I do worry Putin will take plenty of time to retrain his army to come back bigger, better and stronger in the future. This has been a wake up call to him, I think.

But I also don't think Russia is trying to push NATO. Since NATO is a defensive alliance and Ukraine isn't a member, they won't and shouldn't get involved. I could be wrong but this is my take.

@AgnesWestern

I’ve just read the posts from last night.

I’m of the opposite opinion, I think we should de-escalate and focus on peace talks and try to give him an off ramp.

I also think we’d be playing with fire if we tested him and called his bluff. I saw a speech from him prior to the invasion when he said that he knows Russia’s army is not comparable to that of NATO’s and went on to say about Russia’s large nuclear weapons arsenal. So that speaks for itself in my mind.
I assume NATO is thinking along the same lines, hence why they haven’t intervened.

It’s a huge gamble/risk to take. It would mean billions of deaths and injured people. Possibly destroying the planet and eco system. It’s not a risk anyone will take as the consequences would be devastating for everyone on the planet.

I'm somewhere in the middle.

I agree with you that boots on the ground, NFZ intervention is dangerous and unlikely. However, I'm not sure WE (assuming we means NATO) should be deescalating beyond perhaps clarifying what would need to happen before sanctions could begin to be lifted.

Putin already has an off-ramp if he wishes to take it- Ukraine has expressed willingness to adopt neutrality, and I have no doubt that he could spin that as a resounding victory if he wanted to. He's making the right noises about peace talks but his escalating brutality doesn't exactly scream good faith. That's not to say that I think peace talks are hopeless and that they shouldn't be attempted, but we need to retain a healthy amount of scepticism here.

Ultimately, it should only be up to Ukraine to decide how much it wants to concede to secure peace. I feel desperately, desperately sorry for Ukrainians because they shouldn't have to concede anything at all If the only off-ramp Putin will accept is Ukraine giving up on EU membership and conceding huge amounts of land, that's not ours to bargain with.

The danger of adopting too dove-like an approach is that Putin learns that NATO will always back off. That's immediately even more dangerous for Ukraine (and the surrounding nations) IMO because it demonstrates that there really isn't anything standing between Putin and whatever he fancies doing. If we're not going to step in militarily, we need to do absolutely everything possible to support Ukraine in however it chooses to proceed and to show Putin that NATO is united and not to be trifled with.

I'm not meaning to sound gloomy, because I think a huge deciding factor for Putin is going to be money. Without funds, he loses the ability to build a competitive army and keep his population in any kind of comfort. He has less to offer countries like China. This will, I think, gradually make him more likely to take an off-ramp, and one that is acceptable to Ukraine, because his grip on his existing power will slip. There are already signs that he feels this is happening, so I think we need to keep the pressure firm.

Of interest

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

Jennifer Rankin in Brussels, 4 Nov 2021 "The Labour peer recalled an early
meeting with Putin,
who became Russian president in 2000. “Putin said:
‘When are you going to invite us to join Nato?’ And [Robertson] said:
‘Well, we don’t invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.’ And
he said: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that
don’t matter.’”

The account chimes with what Putin told the late David Frost in a BBC
interview shortly before he was first inaugurated as Russian president
more than 21 years ago. Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining
Nato “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an
equal partner”.

He told Frost it was hard for him to visualise Nato as an enemy.
“Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own
country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised
world.”"

But in sure I read they can be attacked and not trigger article 5 . it's their choice.

Twitter rumblings of Danish peace keeping forces going in.

And I guess retaliation has to be on their soil

@PaperTyger

What's happened to Merkel? Has She commented?

That would be highly highly inappropriate, she's too classy for that. In any case she's not been heard or seen of since leaving office, other than having her purse lifted in a supermarket right under the eyes of her security detail.

Really? Too classy?
Apparently she's had an extremely close relationship with her and he respects her.
Many also directly attribute much of this mess/German weakness suckling on Putin's gas teat as groundwork for this invasion.

Many other politicians who hosted and cosied up to Putin have commenter and others seem ominously silent.
Including Obama and Bush?
Maybe they have all commented and Ibrahim missed it.
I think past leader's who hosted this dictator , gave him legitimacy and propped up his regime have a duty to speak out.