Ukraine Invasion Part 14

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[quote PaperTyger]@Alexandra2001

You do know who Alexandra Tolstoy is? Who she was married too?[/quote]
Very interesting documentary about her I seem to remember.

Sergey pugachev (sp)

The Man called Putin's personal Banker.

She was part of that inner circle and he Sergey always spoke to her about Putin until he fell foul of Putin.

I think she's got a more intimate personal view of him than most essayist tbh.

The countess and the billionaire is absolutely fascinating on Netflix.
Rare glimpse into the life of an oligarch who actually falls form grace during the documentary.

BBC News:

We have more information now on the video call between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping earlier today.
Details about the two-hour call are still sparse, but the White House says Biden "described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians".
Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Xi made it clear during the meeting that "as permanent members of the UN Security Council and the world’s two leading economies, we must not only guide the China-US relations forward along the right track, but also shoulder our share of international responsibilities and work for world peace and tranquility".

The very last thing Putin is, is spontaneous.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing a regimental commander.
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa.
Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to successfully contest Russian air operations.

The bombing of the redundant plane maintenance place next to Lviv airport may have been strategic ? Perhaps their intelligence suggested it was storage for something else ? Or it was a show of strength, 'look how far we can reach from the Black sea' sort of thing ?

Why do people bash other countries re support all the time!? Lots of European countries give more support than us! Just looking at refugees for example? Millions in Poland, up to 10000 a day in Germany ( through Poland) all taken in, looked after. Also military support as in missiles weapons etc. we can sit here in our own comfortable little island and try and look down on other countries but generally we should be ashamed of ourselves. Don’t be so quick to judge!!!

Although if what @Ijsbear says is true;

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion

Then I would assume strategic ? Still scary for those who are still seeing that side of the country as relatively safe.

I'm really surprised at the total rejected views of someone who knew Putin's extremely well and was known as his personal Banker.

@Birchtree1, not suprised at all ! , If you imagine every EU/NATO process as every single works do meal, you have ever been to, combined, it is easier to understand.

Good article in the Washington Post about where the negotiations are and why we are receiving mixed messages from Ukraine and (despite the headline) Russia. It also suggests that sanctions wouldn't necessarily be lifted quickly.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/18/russia-ukraine-peace-negotiations/

@Igotjelly just moved house, have spent the last three days unpacking boxes so catch up in the evenings. Takes a while! Though in the middle of a very unpleasant divorce, I feel so grateful to have a roof over my head and dcs safe. My ds is about to be 16…. The video yesterday if the Russian mother speaking about her son was heartbreaking….

I;m surprised at managing to take down 10 Russian aircraft in one day!

Does anyone have any reasonable guesstimates as to how many Russian troops and arms, aircraft, tanks etc there are in the Ukraine atm?

Poor Mariupol :/

@Notonthestairs

Good article in the Washington Post about where the negotiations are and why we are receiving mixed messages from Ukraine and (despite the headline) Russia. It also suggests that sanctions wouldn't necessarily be lifted quickly.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/18/russia-ukraine-peace-negotiations/

This is behind a paywall? Can you summarise/screenshot? @Notonthestairs

twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1504911492797411330?s=21

Is this any better?

@Notonthestairs

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1504911492797411330?s=21

Is this any better?

No :-(

Ok - I'll fire up lap top as it's easier for me to read and respond that way.
Article is called "Mixed Signals from Ukraine's president and his aides leaves west confused about his end game. "

I don't have a WP account so I don't know why I can read it but you can't!

Maybe I'm doing something stupid, will keep trying. Don't worry :-)

@MissConductUS

My feeling is the UK are the only one willing / able to put anything forward in support at this time in terms of military support and capability. The US is much more reluctant to commit, whilst others are either more reliant on the US or plain Doves.

Counting the most recent package, the US has provided almost a billion euros in military aid to Ukraine in the last year.

www.euronews.com/next/2022/03/04/ukraine-war-these-countries-are-sending-weapons-and-aid-to-forces-fighting-the-russian-inv

I can't seem to find a recent comparable number for the UK. Is it more?

@MissConductUS I agree with your posts on this.

It is not accurate to doubt the commitment of the US.

It could be that they offer a limited amount of free articles to read, try a different browser or a private tab.

@DuncinToffee

It could be that they offer a limited amount of free articles to read, try a different browser or a private tab.

That worked, thanks @DuncinToffee!

Johnny Mercer @JohnnyMercerUK
Earlier this week at the invite of local MPs, I was in and around Irpin, Bucha and Kyiv visiting wounded Ukrainian veterans, local MPs fighting to save their country, and families decimated by Putin’s indiscriminate military. Total carnage; incredible human spirit

Thats the second Tory MP I believe who has been to Ukraine since the start of the war.

The gist is basically. Zelenskey probably hasn't decided how many concessions to give right now. He likely wants to give some yet ukraine believe they are winning the war so why should they give up very much as he will have to sell it to his people.

Russia are saying they are going well in the hope more sanctions aren't put on them with the thought that people won't want to fan the flames if they claim a peace deal is close.

WP Article - Diplomats saying that they are receiving mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he and Putin are to reaching an agreement.
Messaging earlier in the week indicated that Zelensky had very little interest in a negotiated settlement. However Zelensky's key negotiator was also saying that they had confidence in reaching a settlement.
Zelensky under pressure to present progress in the negotiations "even if the reality is less sanguine".
Feelings in Ukraine split between those that want to fight on and others that want to see an agreement reached.
The 15 point plan outlined in the FT on Wednesday was simply a restatement of Russian positions.
Zelensky is caught because he will need to sell any agreement to the country - he can not concede too much. Noting that Kharkiv was previously sympathetic to Russia but they have now turned fiercely pro-Kyiv. Direct quote "Even if Zelensky manages to strike a deal implementing it would be difficult. Ukraine's NATo aspirations were baked in to its consitution in a 2019 amendment and changing it would require a lengthy process that culminates in a supermajority vote of parliament" which isnt guaranteed.
Zelensky has raised aspirations so they may fear a betrayal. Essentially the success of his campaign might be a barrier to a deal.

As regards lifting sanctions - a withdrawl of Russian troops may not be enough for the US. They will want to see that the withdrawal is irreversible and they wont try again in 2/3 years time. Some eastern flank NATO members are worried that a peace agreement that concedes too much will empower Putin and they would prefer to see a clear loss - otherwise they fear international security will be destablised.

But this makes a compromise difficult. European sanctions would therefore remain until there are concrete signs that it has been implemented.

And of course the question is whether Putin will ever settle on an agreement in the first place. He has been showing willing however diplomats believe this is to push for the lifting of sanctions - so there is a lack of trust that they will abide by any agreement.

Oh! I was too slow! sorry. Glad you can read the actual article!

@Alexandra2001

I think history will judge us very harshly on this.

Yes. Me too. I judge us harshly now.

I was asked by my contact in Odesa to now raise funds for 1000 body bags for the military operating in the local area. The official body count is way lower than the real numbers.

It's not bolshy to say that Putin needs to be put back in his place. He needs to be shown strength every time he puts even a toe over the line. As for the future, I'm raising my 5 year olds to be strong because this world is not always safe. Humanity has to come first and mass genocide on our watch, when we had the capability and the moral justification to intervene, is not ok. Yes NATO isn't the world police but do you have to be a policeman to stand up to crime? In my view, being a witness of a crime bears significant responsibility.