Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

Xinhua account of Biden call: xhnewsapi.xinhuaxmt.com/share/news?id=673423049723904&showType=3019&utdId=f7928cdf8e4b92886ea2d5e7201b0e6f&version=3.0.2

Hope this isn't hot air

I just saw a really depressing TikTok video (I’ve deleted the app now as it’s just not good for me) sometimes I scroll through for recipes etc.
Anyway an older gentleman had posted a video talking about technological advances since he was born and asked young people to comment what do they think they will see in their lifetime?

The comments so many young people, in their teens and twenties, some a bit older saying they’ll see WW3, nuclear war, the end of the world, the end of humanity, end of civilisation. Only a few positive comments.
I feel so sad for my 3 year old DS if this is what people envisage the future being like!

Sorry for the downer post.

I hope the China/US talk was positive.

@MagicFox

First reports of the Xi-Biden talk. Don't know, all a bit wishful washy. Let's see what the US says.

So what does China want in return for it's help in pressing Putin to stop ?

Coz that's how I read it.

@AgnesWestern

I just saw a really depressing TikTok video (I’ve deleted the app now as it’s just not good for me) sometimes I scroll through for recipes etc. Anyway an older gentleman had posted a video talking about technological advances since he was born and asked young people to comment what do they think they will see in their lifetime?

The comments so many young people, in their teens and twenties, some a bit older saying they’ll see WW3, nuclear war, the end of the world, the end of humanity, end of civilisation. Only a few positive comments.
I feel so sad for my 3 year old DS if this is what people envisage the future being like!

Sorry for the downer post.

I hope the China/US talk was positive.

If TikTok had been around during the Cold War I've no doubt people would have been posting the same on there then. Didn't happen, though.

People on TikTok are just people on TikTok, you've no idea of their knowledge (or lack of) or their motivations. Pay it no heed.

The call lasted 1hr 50mins. Phew who I could be bothered with that!

@AgnesWestern

I just saw a really depressing TikTok video (I’ve deleted the app now as it’s just not good for me) sometimes I scroll through for recipes etc. Anyway an older gentleman had posted a video talking about technological advances since he was born and asked young people to comment what do they think they will see in their lifetime?

The comments so many young people, in their teens and twenties, some a bit older saying they’ll see WW3, nuclear war, the end of the world, the end of humanity, end of civilisation. Only a few positive comments.
I feel so sad for my 3 year old DS if this is what people envisage the future being like!

Sorry for the downer post.

I hope the China/US talk was positive.

My mum said she felt like this during the Cold War- she went through phases of truly believing she had no future and expecting Armageddon at any moment. She says a lot of her friends felt the same. If she'd had tiktok, I expect she would have been saying the same thing at the time. She's out in her garden right now pruning her roses, so try not to despair

re tech problems, I read there were a large number of hackers who are, independently of government schemes, trying to block comms in Russia to help Ukraine.

Could that be a factor in this?

I do think people fail to see all the absolutely wonderful things that can be done with technology etc now. I suspect in our lifetime we’ll see a massive jump in all sorts of healthcare, green technology etc. it isn’t all a lost cause! For every bad thing happening there are plenty of good things. They just don’t make the news because as they say “if it bleeds it leads”

Also Agnes, just something I was told that was really helpful and might help you. I had therapy a while back for PTSD and used to have intrusive thoughts about this sort of thing. My therapist told me that worrying something is going to happen, or even really believing it, doesn't increase the likelihood. Those young people are (understandably) worrying about this, but just because lots of people think that's what the future will hold doesn't mean that it will turn out that way.

@Igotjelly

I do think people fail to see all the absolutely wonderful things that can be done with technology etc now. I suspect in our lifetime we’ll see a massive jump in all sorts of healthcare, green technology etc. it isn’t all a lost cause! For every bad thing happening there are plenty of good things. They just don’t make the news because as they say “if it bleeds it leads”

Very true. I used to be a teacher and I had a book called 'Good People Everywhere' which I used to read to my classes when scary things were happening in the news. It talks about all the ordinary people all over the world doing good things that keep the world ticking over, and it still comforts me now. And there will also be extraordinary people doing extraordinarily good (and clever) things right now to try and resolve this awful situation.

Weather or not people think they are just buying time (seems unlikely to me considering they are not stopping the bombs for talks) it does comfort me that peace negotiations are consistently ongoing now.

I can't remember where but I read a report that said if they can agree on the demilitorisation and neutral status, this may be enough to at least gain a ceasefire and troops return to crimea and donbass while those issues are spoken about. Maybe hopeful thinking though.

This is where I’m a bit confused, there is talk of the US/UK and/or others providing security guarantees to Ukraine as part of any deal. In what way is that better for Russia than Ukraine being in NATO?

@Igotjelly

This is where I’m a bit confused, there is talk of the US/UK and/or others providing security guarantees to Ukraine as part of any deal. In what way is that better for Russia than Ukraine being in NATO?

This is what I'm a bit confused by as well, although I wonder if it is America specifically that Putin is paranoid about. If you listen to him talking, it always seems to be about America trying to dominate the world.

I also think it might be something to do with the potential for nuclear weapons owned by NATO states to be kept on Ukrainian soil. I can't picture that ever happening. But that might explain why the UK has been suggested as a sort of protector to Ukraine (if that's true) because we don't have any land-based missiles to place there.

I'm hoping these peace talks do come to something! What a way to get everyone's hopes up if they amount to nothing.

Can someone explain to me what exactly demilitarisation actually means? Would it mean Ukraine can't have their own army?

@Igotjelly

The call lasted 1hr 50mins. Phew who I could be bothered with that!

Halve it for translation time. Knock off a bit for polite/formal greetings and farewell. You're probably looking at 40-45 mins tops for the actual substance. And prepared statements will take a bit of getting through.

The main important thing is the fact that the call took place. The leaders of those countries talk directly only very rarely

@holliem91

I'm hoping these peace talks do come to something! What a way to get everyone's hopes up if they amount to nothing.

Can someone explain to me what exactly demilitarisation actually means? Would it mean Ukraine can't have their own army?

I'm not sure what Russia means by demilitarising, but it seems to be suggesting a neutrality model similar to Austria. If that's the case, Ukraine maintains its own armed forces but doesn't enter into a military alliance.

@holliem91

I'm hoping these peace talks do come to something! What a way to get everyone's hopes up if they amount to nothing.

Can someone explain to me what exactly demilitarisation actually means? Would it mean Ukraine can't have their own army?

From what I gather it would be similar to Austria where they can have their own army and navy but can join no alliance and have no foreign weapon systems on their soil.

Regarding the security garuntees my guess is if we went in to help ukrain as part of the garuntee n the future eventually this would not warrant an article 5 nato response as we would not be being attacked. Much like no mm there is no stopping any country putting boots on the ground in Ukraine if they wanted right now of their own accord. article 5 would only be triggered if there was an attack on nato soil.

Interesting thread here that the lifting of sanctions has now started to feature in the words of the Russia chief negotiator which, as the commentator says, both ' complicates the issue and gives it a chance' twitter.com/baunov/status/1504843075629236250?t=cMsSxevplOPJDrzVf5GEkQ&s=19

[quote MagicFox]Those that are demanding NATO intervene might find this analysis about why that's a bad idea useful: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/[/quote]
Good article

I don't agree that trade and soft power with dictatorships are a good thing. All that's happened is dirty money from those regimes corrupting our systems, and cultural connections serving as effective PR exercises for them, resulting in a kind of endless apologism and muddied ideological clarity on our side. The last few weeks have shown the West has been an absolute, gullible, money-grubbing fool.

I also don't agree that sanctions play into the hands of hardliners, as hardliners seem to thrive without them. If Putin doesn't go, and if Russia doesn't have some kind of Orange Revolution of its own, then there's no way we should go back to business as usual. I keep on reading comments about what Ukraine should do in negotiations, or how Zelenskyy is determined to continue with the war, and I just want to go all Basil Fawlty and shout, 'But Russia invaded Ukraine!' All this talk about what Ukraine should give up when it's Putin who has the agency to end this war immediately by stopping invading Ukraine.

[quote wonderfullife123]Interesting thread here that the lifting of sanctions has now started to feature in the words of the Russia chief negotiator which, as the commentator says, both ' complicates the issue and gives it a chance' twitter.com/baunov/status/1504843075629236250?t=cMsSxevplOPJDrzVf5GEkQ&s=19[/quote]
Very interesting thread. I always assumed that the sanctions would become part of the peace deal. I guess zelenskey may have to convince other countries to drop them though. Probably a lot easier to convince them to do this than implement a no fly zone.

@AgnesWestern

I just saw a really depressing TikTok video (I’ve deleted the app now as it’s just not good for me) sometimes I scroll through for recipes etc. Anyway an older gentleman had posted a video talking about technological advances since he was born and asked young people to comment what do they think they will see in their lifetime?

The comments so many young people, in their teens and twenties, some a bit older saying they’ll see WW3, nuclear war, the end of the world, the end of humanity, end of civilisation. Only a few positive comments.
I feel so sad for my 3 year old DS if this is what people envisage the future being like!

Sorry for the downer post.

I hope the China/US talk was positive.

Roll back to the 60s / 70s / 80s.

Was it different?

With any negotiation, you ask for more than you prepared to accept in settlement. Only very occasionally does anyone get all their demands met.

Ukraine has repeatedly asked for a ceasefire as a prelude to talks. Russia has repeatedly refused this. I haven't seen any criticism of Ukraine continuing to defend itself against the aggressor.

I don't think the west has been gullible. I think it has been convenient to turn a blind eye to the nefarious activities of a bunch of Russian crooks in return for huge sums of money. Power corrupts and all that.

@MagicFox

Xinhua account of Biden call: xhnewsapi.xinhuaxmt.com/share/news?id=673423049723904&showType=3019&utdId=f7928cdf8e4b92886ea2d5e7201b0e6f&version=3.0.2

Hope this isn't hot air

Biden wanted China to use the word 'invasion'. I don't think thats in there.