Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

I agree MarshaBradyo that the West did not not act sooner with sanctions (we’re talking about Crimea?) but it was tricky. Standing up to Putin carries significant risks. The cost/benefit analysis of retaliation or response must be a difficult balancing act for many other countries.

Putin has been so strategic. Appointing political heavyweights to Russian oil companies, donations to political parties, investments etc everything from the economic to the political to the social and technological, with probably much darker elements thrown in.

It took an act this egregious of Russia to invade and start killing Ukrainians for western/other govts to finally coordinate and act in response.

I haven’t followed this thread very closely but I hope it’s ok for me to jump in here. So I have been reading the last day or two about the requests from russia for Ukraine do disarm their country. So they are no longer a threat to russia. Is this actually what is being asked? Surely Ukraine couldn’t do this? They already got rid of their nukes on the promise that nato would protect them didnt they? If they completely disarm themselves they will leave themselves vulnerable to future attack from russia? And Ukraine don’t seem to be the problem, they aren’t attacking anyone, it’s the other way around.
Is this seriously being considered as a peace agreement?

@MarshaBradyo

Re the planes, it’s actually not that uncommon for the so called ‘doomsday’ planes (both American and Russian) to partake in training. Think it’s just been picked up on because of the context.

Given how useless the rest of their kit has been Putin probably wanted to make sure it could still fly….

@DrBlackbird

I agree MarshaBradyo that the West did not not act sooner with sanctions (we’re talking about Crimea?) but it was tricky. Standing up to Putin carries significant risks. The cost/benefit analysis of retaliation or response must be a difficult balancing act for many other countries.

Putin has been so strategic. Appointing political heavyweights to Russian oil companies, donations to political parties, investments etc everything from the economic to the political to the social and technological, with probably much darker elements thrown in.

It took an act this egregious of Russia to invade and start killing Ukrainians for western/other govts to finally coordinate and act in response.

I’m not sure we should have at that point as they need to be proportionate

But a bit like other issues that arise there seems to be criticism from both sides, too late and too much simultaneously being argued

To me the path we are on makes the most sense - heavy response to an extreme situation

I’m probably most likely to not blame the West for missteps wrt Putin (there are other things that could be said I’m sure) but put all the fault on Putin

As an aside has anyone read Richard Rhodes book on the Manhattan Project? Decided to go to the eye if it, really good so far

@MarshaBradyo

They could use sanctions in a much more targeted stalrategic way to make Russia withdraw. Stop this and we will lift this. I think the negotiations have to take place incredibly carefully because Putin has a huge ego and ruthlessness. Long term, I don't think it's a wise strategy for all the potential it has to create a permanent cold War which can flare up into hot war.
We also MUST accept that perceptions differ in different parts of the world. NATO are also seen as evil and murderous for good reason.

[quote eglantine7]@MarshaBradyo

They could use sanctions in a much more targeted stalrategic way to make Russia withdraw. Stop this and we will lift this. I think the negotiations have to take place incredibly carefully because Putin has a huge ego and ruthlessness. Long term, I don't think it's a wise strategy for all the potential it has to create a permanent cold War which can flare up into hot war.
We also MUST accept that perceptions differ in different parts of the world. NATO are also seen as evil and murderous for good reason.[/quote]
Absolutely agree with this. We often forget that in the West we see the World through a very different lease to other parts of the World. Not to say how we see the World is any better or more right thank anyone else.

Lense that should obviously be 🙄

[quote MagicFox]Those that are demanding NATO intervene might find this analysis about why that's a bad idea useful: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/[/quote]
That article is reassuring but not at the same time. Reassuring that people are thinking this way and not so much as I’m concerned NATO will end up going down this road. Then it’ll be extremely difficult to back peddle from.

[quote Yeahthat]@MarshaBradyo

I have. I completely recognise the legitimacy of that and the Ukranian people's right to self-determination.

However, rather than insisting on a maximalist approach, could pragmatism have yielded better outcomes for the Ukranian people? The reality is that they have an aggressive, (declining) superpower as a neighbour, which sees Ukraine as a core strategic interest, and is led by a murderous dictator.[/quote]
I’m not sure because I think if they had said ok we’ll not join NATO bluntly early on we might still be here

But also seeing how much many Ukrainians did not want Yanukovych as their president, and were willing to fight in a bloody confrontation to achieve that how do you mollify that strength of feeling?

It seems a clash between the strongest forces on either side, and very real and raw to those fighting for their own country

I can’t think how you stop that kind of feeling - what would you have liked to have seen in real terms over last few decades? there might be something but I think to understand better it’d be good to see it in practical terms

@Blackberryjamtart I agree, feel the same about it!

I just hope people at the top keep their cool heads.

@Blackberryjamtart

I just hope people at the top keep their cool heads.

These people are incredibly gifted diplomats. Keeping a cool head is what they do. Every action is calculated and risk assessed, they won’t take NATO to war on a whim.

I saw earlier that 35% of the American public are in favour of military intervention in Ukraine. Not sure how reliable these polls are though.

@Igotjelly You’re right. I’m thinking the same, the only problem is if Putin uses chemical or biological weapons…then I’m worried NATO may feel no choice but to intervene. Hopefully they won’t as you say they are very experienced in their field.
It’ll certainly cause an uproar from the public though.

General polling for the mid-terms suggested that Biden’s approval rating has increased recently, commentators suggested American’s are generally pleased with how he’s handling this crisis.

Saying in a poll that they favour military intervention and actually backing it when it risks bringing the war to them are very different things

[quote AgnesWestern]@Igotjelly You’re right. I’m thinking the same, the only problem is if Putin uses chemical or biological weapons…then I’m worried NATO may feel no choice but to intervene. Hopefully they won’t as you say they are very experienced in their field.
It’ll certainly cause an uproar from the public though.[/quote]
Don’t forget Russia deployed chemical weapons on UK soil and we did nothing. We also did nothing when they were deployed against kids in Syria.

They could use sanctions in a much more targeted stalrategic way to make Russia withdraw. Stop this and we will lift this

They may well be saying this! Truth is that we have no access to therefore no idea of what is actually being said at the highest levels of diplomacy.

We are just conjecturing in our own v minor way here on these series of threads. But which is nevertheless, presumably, of interest to us all.

@Igotjelly

Have you heard of the stability-instability paradox? The theory that nuclear weapons make large-scale wars between nuclear powers less likely, but they also increase the likelihood of minor or indirect conflicts. So rogue states or actors such as Putin can use them as a shield from behind which to wage conventional war or acts of aggression. I think we've also seen it used to pursue grey-zone actions such as the one you mentioned of the attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the UK using a chemical agent.

Anyone watching footage of the celebration rally at the Luzhniki Stadium in celebration of the annexation of Crimea? Putin is due to make a speech there later. It's all very jingoistic and sinister. Beautiful young women and strong-looking young men to the fore, flag-waving and Z symbols. Let's see if Putin goes the full Nuremberg.

[quote Yeahthat]@Igotjelly

Have you heard of the stability-instability paradox? The theory that nuclear weapons make large-scale wars between nuclear powers less likely, but they also increase the likelihood of minor or indirect conflicts. So rogue states or actors such as Putin can use them as a shield from behind which to wage conventional war or acts of aggression. I think we've also seen it used to pursue grey-zone actions such as the one you mentioned of the attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the UK using a chemical agent.[/quote]
I hadn’t but will read up!

Reuters reporting that state employees have been pressured to attend the Crimea rally.

@EsmaCannonball

Anyone watching footage of the celebration rally at the Luzhniki Stadium in celebration of the annexation of Crimea? Putin is due to make a speech there later. It's all very jingoistic and sinister. Beautiful young women and strong-looking young men to the fore, flag-waving and Z symbols. Let's see if Putin goes the full Nuremberg.

Lots of reports of people being biased in and offered 500 rubles to attend + hot food. Very North Korea!

Students also promised course credits for attending the rally.

@EsmaCannonball absolutely speechless watching that. The goading and mind games of Putin are unconscionable during a war with Ukraine. I can’t see how peace talks can come to anything.

In terms of nato not acting if chem/biological weapons are used, are you comfortable watching genocide?