Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

@eglantine7
are Simon Jenkins’s article that you posted
about the uselessness and counter-productivity of sanctions.

While reading it it seemed to make sense, but seeing this:
“They deny the liberalising effect of trade and of intellectual and humanitarian exchange. Soft power is denied its potency.”

Isn’t that exactly the policy Germany was adopting, and relying on, with Russia? Quite clearly at the cost of their own independence and security?

Hasn’t our dealing with Russian money laundering and Russian enterprises not funded this war?

I feel confused.

@berlinbabylon

Yesterday there was a development that was scary. Planes taking off including doomsday planes is not usual and not reassuring and yes it caused panic

I don't understand why a few Russian planes flying around caused panic. What on earth is going on with people. It's a lovely day (in the south of the UK at least) - get out for some sunshine and calm down!

It was the pattern that it happened in and the doomsday plane is not normally up! Some established posters on this thread also showed concern!

[quote purpleboy]@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway

I understand what your saying, and it's great that you can and are finding ways or reducing your anxiety, but not everyone can.

I think these threads have been a good mix of factual current and historical information which so many of us have learnt from, and genuine emotions, which do include fear and anxiety.

There are a few regular posters who are understandably very fearful, they comment and other posters support them and give them reasons to not be so fearful, this to me is people supporting others during a time of need.
Whilst I don't really post my fears, I am probably one of the more anxious people reading these threads and I get a lot of comfort from the more knowledgeable posters reassurance.

[/quote]
I agree with you too.

Our concern should first and foremost be for Ukrainians. However, this situation does have potential ramifications for European security, so I really understand why some posters are feeling anxious.

I agree that it's best to try and avoid jumping to 'oh shit, nukes' every time something happens, just for one's own mental health. We'd see a gradual ramping up of escalations first. But that's not a criticism of anyone, I really understand it.

I feel like this is the equivalent of saying I don’t know much about art but I know what I like but…

It was Russia that invaded Ukraine and started bombing.

It’s hard to be a bridge when the path leading to the bridge is claimed by someone else and then they blow up the bridge.

The whole idea of the post war consensus and building tighter economic integration was based on the belief that countries that traded would not inflict war on each other. If they do however, then the only tactic available is economic sanctions.

I’m interested to know what was the alternative? That every other country to stand idly by watching Putin destroy Ukraine and feel ever more omnipotent?

I think it was very wrong to enable Putin and accept Russian billionaires with direct links Putin to invest in Britain. Also to accept Russian money to destabilise British politics ( Brexit campaign).
Glad that has stopped.
But, long term this arsehole Putin will form alliances with other nations who will view(already do view) the West as economic terrorists.
The most liberal and anti-war and intellectuals will flee Russia. There will be brain drain but what will the anti West narrative in Russia and the global South and China be used to Putin and other authoritarians advantage?

I will stop rambling about this. Very keen to hear of outcome between Xi and Biden.

I don't understand how it's acceptable or even the custom for world leaders and political commentators to explain/justify events in terms of a country being 'neutral' or 'pro'. I know there's a long history of this, eg during WW2 when for example Switzerland took a neutral position.

No country should have any general stance as pro or neutral other countries really should they? Isn't this like a child saying they don't like Declan because he has a funny voice and he nicked his pencil in year one? If a country is behaving badly/unfairly react in a way that discourages the behaviour. End of. Employers aren't allowed to hire or fire on the basis of being friends or supporters of an employee. (I know they do but it shouldn't be encouraged). It seems so unambiguous to never hear leaders state the case for global fairness.

I don't get why commentators aren't outraged by Russia saying it wants Ukraine to be neutral. Shouldn't it be free to join any club it likes?

[quote Bluebellsunderthetrees]@megynhelena I think you have written excellent posts.

Henry Kissinger ( Nobel Peace Prize winner) wrote this article in 2014 about Ukraine. EU/US/West/Russia and Ukraine itself all had
a part to play.
Interesting and sad to read now because no one really did play their part for peace. The first paragraph:

"Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.

Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other — it should function as a bridge between them."

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html[/quote]
He wasn't the only one. People generally don't want to hear it on MN, but George Kennan (the architect of the US' post-1945 containment policy) made similar statements back in the 1990s, as did John Mearsheimer and others.

Those that are demanding NATO intervene might find this analysis about why that's a bad idea useful: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/

Yesterday there was a development that was scary. Planes taking off including doomsday planes is not usual and not reassuring and yes it caused panic

The only panic I saw was on this thread (well the previous one in this series) and a few people on Twitter. It was very odd. Nervous poos, people wanting to leave work...Meanwhile people in Ukraine are dealing with terrifying daily/hourly attacks.

Yeahthat have you watched Winter on Fire re 2014

What are your thoughts on the impetus from Ukrainians to join the EU, the west and freedom?

I know you keep saying ‘people don’t want to hear it’ but I think people just disagree slightly

Although I agree with you on other points

In all honesty, life experiences and references are influencing the outlook of 'all' posters, certain posters said as much yesterday but the strength in peace posters are shot down and aligned with panic. That's actually not what happened yesterday, the panic didn't come out of nowhere and it's patronising to say it did. I suggested we have to be careful with our sources and be cautious about delivering something in a style that suggests fact rather than opinion, so categorically stating we 'are' fucked is not helpful. The idea that you have an outlook because of your sheltered life is also not true. My Mum fled a dictatorship in the 70s and she literally crept past an armed guard who was asleep to get on am American cargo plane and get the hell out of there back to Britain. My Dad stayed and tbh I'm not sure if that was the beginning of the end for them as it was a grand humanitarian gesture but she felt unloved when he made that choice. She wanted to live and didn't see the virtue in dying at 25! As a PP stated 'peace is strengh' 100% agree!

Some established posters on this thread also showed concern!

People would do well to remember that even "established posters" don't know much more than the rest of us, and may have their own agendas.

Eglantine without sanctions what would your preferred approach be?

I do get what you’re saying and have heard similar re resentment building as a result, but I wondered what you’d prefer

Yes, I agree about the terrifying ordeal the Ukranians are going through and it is the thing to remember when anxiety ensues!

Goldenbear did your dad get out too eventually? Presumably he did or you would not be here?

None of those countries mentioned by Simon Jenkins were/are anything closely integrated within the global economy as much as Russia is/was… so I don’t think those comparison’s hold.

Will economic sanctions change Putin’s mind? No of course they bloody won’t, but withdrawing some Russian banks from Swift etc was a powerful signal of disapproval by significant gov’ts and a message to Putin.

Though, Putin knew this would happen. He’s planned for this for at least a decade. Why else did he have Russia build its own internet and trial Russia being withdrawn from global communications.

NB Not sure that Jenkins has got that wholly right about Pakistan being a ‘friend of the west’. Countries don’t have friends. Pakistan, like all countries, looks to its own interests.

[quote MagicFox]Those that are demanding NATO intervene might find this analysis about why that's a bad idea useful: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-war-nato-intervention/627092/[/quote]
This is pretty much what I have been saying to my DP. That not getting involved as much as it pains people means that NATO isn’t giving him
The excuse of see I told you they wanted to harm us, this is the justification for this war. Unfortunately Ukraine is the middle man which has been attacked because of this gesturing for years between Russia and NATO

@ClaudineClare what I meant was it wasn't just the anxious few as we've been so lovingly named!

@eglantine7 I think it was very wrong to enable Putin and accept Russian billionaires with direct links Putin to invest in Britain. Also to accept Russian money to destabilise British politics ( Brexit campaign).
Glad that has stopped.

I don't have your confidence that it has stopped. It's just less blatant and more insidious

Re the Simon Jenkins article, I think he's just plain wrong. I've already given the example of SA, where sanctions did have effect despite Maggie's best efforts - but as ScrollingLeaves points out, that's what Germany tried to do - encourage economic links - and that approach has left Germany vulnerable to Russia. To be fair, it's what the principle of the EU was established on and has worked in EU member countries but Merkel overlooked that EU member (and aspiring member) countries have to adhere to proven principles of democracy and rights of citizens. Something Russia does not have - and doesn't look likely to have for a long time if ever (and as an aside, why the scaremongering from Farage et al about Turkey being "about" to join the EU was a load of codswallop as it didn't meet the accession criteria - and was moving further and further away from them )

[quote elephantmarchingin]@ClaudineClare what I meant was it wasn't just the anxious few as we've been so lovingly named! [/quote]
Ha at name, you should start a band ;

DrBlackbird good points, also on one hand there is criticism of West not acting sooner with sanctions balanced with they are not good now

ClaudineClare, yes he did 3 months later and my eldest sibling born 9 months after that return I think in an attempt to save the marriage but my Dad always pursued international business/work and never settled in a 9-5 sceanrio!

@mibbelucieachwell

In an ideal world they should be. But are those organisations incapable of taking a pragmatic view of the interests in the region, putting them in a historical context etc and realising that admitting Ukraine would unacceptably increase tensions? As would, for example, the incorporation of Taiwan into AUKUS. Would it be responsible to increase tensions by floating the idea of incorporating Taiwan, knowing that in the meantime we'd be unable or unwilling to defend it militarily? To what end would it serve the people of Taiwan to do anything other than attempt to pragmatically balance the competing interests in the region?

I certainly hope that one day we do have a world where there are truly impartial and supranational organisations, capable of global governance, where all nations are treated equally, and powerful countries are no longer able nor see it necessary to protect their power into neighbouring ones. But that's not where we are now and I do think it's necessary to be realistic about the limits of our ability and willingness to act.

@MarshaBradyo

I have. I completely recognise the legitimacy of that and the Ukranian people's right to self-determination.

However, rather than insisting on a maximalist approach, could pragmatism have yielded better outcomes for the Ukranian people? The reality is that they have an aggressive, (declining) superpower as a neighbour, which sees Ukraine as a core strategic interest, and is led by a murderous dictator.