Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

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Yes Russia will potentially be a threat to it's neighbours for years to come. However I think Putin will have bigger issues to deal within Russia once a peace settlement with Ukraine has been signed. The effect of sanctions biting and internal power wranglings, plus the damage to its army will keep Russia busy for some time.

John Simpson on last night's BBC News at 10 went through Putin's demands from his conversation with Erdogan and I'm hopeful a resolution can be reached before many more people are affected by this war.

@DrBlackbird

megynhelena not sure what you think PMK means, but it’s actually just a poster ‘place marking’ the thread so they can easily find it again. Nothing mysterious or interesting.

Watch the thread and bookmark is perhaps a better way of doing it.

"I’m not sure dictators use off ramps especially when doing so would in his mind be a show of resounding failure."

Sir General Richard Shirreff (ex NATO) said something similar on Sky - if he's defeated in one area he'll just cause trouble elsewhere. Hoping this link works.

twitter.com/skynews/status/1504727209281478698?s=21

Putin is/has behaved in a way that is totally unprecedented for a Russian/Soviet leader, even at the height of the cold war, no one reduced a european country to rubble and force millions to flee plus threatened nuclear war!

He is 70, wont be around forever, however, he can still cause a great deal of damage and a peace where Ukraine is neutral, the disputed regions become Russian or Russian protectorates is the likely outcome - assuming the Russians really are suffering militarily - which i'm not so sure about, they don't appear to be giving up any territory gained? nor is the constantly shelling reducing, if anything its increasing with their navy using Cruise.

The talks aren't stopping the fighting, so how is Russia using them as a means to re supply?
Cease fire could do this but we are a long way from that.

Difficult relating to the ex generals/ambassadors/dissidents as pretty much all of them have got it wrong so far.

The idea of causing trouble elsewhere fits with some of the analysis I read yesterday and with the latest supposed leaked comms from the FSB (in the comments here: twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504724839654907931?s=21)

Takeaway seems to be a suggestion that domestic/international terrorism might be possible?

@FreiasBathtub

I've been following, and greatly appreciating, these threads. I have a question. If a peace is negotiated, what is likely to happen with sanctions? I understand that it's a very delicate line and we wouldn't want the kind of situation that existed post WW1 in Germany, and also that Russia has its own capability to rearm (either domestic production or trade with non-US-aligned countries). But are there levers the West can use to limit the speed and ease with which Russia can become a military threat again? And what about other kinds of pressure e.g. economic? Surely it won't all go straight back to how it was in January?

I think probably the sanctions will have to lift eventually or there's little motivation for Russia to withdraw, and keeping the sanctions in place would potentially strengthen Putin's domestic narrative of the wicked west trying to subjugate Russia.

On the other hand, the way Putin has responded to the sanctions may well do damage to the Russian economy that's hard to recover from. Seizing assets and allowing the use of copyrighted materials etc is hardly going to have the companies that have ceased trading in Russia keen to return, or new companies. He's shown that Russia is risky and unreliable to do business with, effectively sanctioning himself. Even if the sanctions lift, that doesn't compel private companies to resume the status quo.

The west will also (hopefully) keep ploughing on with reducing its use of Russian fuel. That will damage the Russian economy too.

Sir General Richard Shirreff (ex NATO) said something similar on Sky - if he's defeated in one area he'll just cause trouble elsewhere. Hoping this link works

Yes just saw that but should he be forced to withdraw from Ukraine with some pretty minor gains, let alone defeat, i wouldn't be surprised if he is removed... thats the problem with him winning, he will have cemented his position and be able to do as he pleases.

I saw a video on TikTok that was uploaded by a young woman living in Russia. She said they have their own Instagram now, just for the Russian people.
I think they’re starting up a new version of Macdonalds too. A ‘Russian own’ one.

I have minimal expectations of Putin being removed from within. He cemented his position a long time ago. The rich may be unhappy at losing their yachts and opportunities to make/spend money but do they have the necessary levers in the military to pull off a coup at some point? If Putin pulls off anything he can frame as a win he'll roll on to create a new conflict to occupy and terrify Russians with. See how he's framed Poland as only existing because of Russia and in need of denazification. That's not to say I think military force will be used elsewhere just that he will effectively turn Russia further inwards.

But I don't have any special insight and I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.

Re: MacDonalds and M&S stores in Russia. There is an issue with some franchises - depending on franchise terms the parent franchise owner can't always shut them down unilaterally.

@AgnesWestern

I saw a video on TikTok that was uploaded by a young woman living in Russia. She said they have their own Instagram now, just for the Russian people. I think they’re starting up a new version of Macdonalds too. A ‘Russian own’ one.

Yes, I think Putin suggested that premises could be claimed and that a nationalised version of some of these businesses could be created. There was a news report on the BBC (I think) about a week ago where a man chained himself to a McDonalds in protest because he was so angry that it had shut. I think a lot of Russians will be feeling the loss of some of these brands very keenly. Goodness knows what a McPutin Happy Meal will be like.

Nationalising these businesses and allowing the use of copyrighted branding is not going to do the Russian economy any favours, he's shooting himself in the foot.

@Igotjelly

Sorry totally random question, did we ever hear anymore about the thermobaric weapons? They were all over the news for a couple of days but have since disappeared.

Remember that a lot of the news cycle has been one 'phew golly' story after another.

Yes, Russia has these weapons.

Yes, there were reports in the early days of the invasion that they were in the area (can't remember source/verification)

There's no reason to think that Russia would not use them if they so wished. Their battle plan seems to be a slow and inexorable build up of the application of force.

There's no reason to think that Russia would not use them if they so wished. Their battle plan seems to be a slow and inexorable build up of the application of force

Do wonder if the reason these weapons are not being used is because they either fear or have been told that using them will mean further NATO involvement?
Given how the Russian military equipment has performed so far, you can imagine thats something they want to avoid.

I would imagine the Russians (inc Putin) fear NATO involvement, whether or not they’d admit it.

Been helping a new friend for the past week and yesterday we filled a van with donations form The Scottish borders and local people and it is on its way to Ukraine. My friend’s idea and she has raised over £4,000 we estimate. Another van hopefully leaving on Saturday to join up with a charity as they can get it across in a large lorry and charity status for paperwork for customs. New and second hand clothes, blankets, jackets, baby milk, bottles, baby food, shoes, medical supplies. She has a list of most needed items for anyone asking. Her parents and sister are still in Ukraine at the moment. Too frightened to move. Bombing the town last Friday. so shocking.

Just wanted to put some good news out there. She is a mum to three young children and works part time and has made this happen!

@smilingthroughgrittedteeth Im not sure if it was on this thread or the last but someone said they had bought iodine pills, how do you know what dosage you would need or is the plan just to down the whole bottle?

That was me, the dosage instructions are in the package but they're only ever to be taken when instructed to by the authorities and I assume they would confirm dosage and timing when instructing us anyway. I hadn't know its something I'm suppose to have in stock always anyway, been a sort of rule for decades but no one ever told me!

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/17/nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-economic-sanctions

Agree with Simon Jenkins about Sanctions being a godsend for Hardliners.

@Redsquirrel5

Been helping a new friend for the past week and yesterday we filled a van with donations form The Scottish borders and local people and it is on its way to Ukraine. My friend’s idea and she has raised over £4,000 we estimate. Another van hopefully leaving on Saturday to join up with a charity as they can get it across in a large lorry and charity status for paperwork for customs. New and second hand clothes, blankets, jackets, baby milk, bottles, baby food, shoes, medical supplies. She has a list of most needed items for anyone asking. Her parents and sister are still in Ukraine at the moment. Too frightened to move. Bombing the town last Friday. so shocking.

Just wanted to put some good news out there. She is a mum to three young children and works part time and has made this happen!

I thought the aid agencies had asked repeatedly for these deliveries not to happen, and that money is far more useful.

@eglantine7

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/17/nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-economic-sanctions

Agree with Simon Jenkins about Sanctions being a godsend for Hardliners.

And I think this will piss off President Xi and all the nations and hears of States that are fed up with the West's economic terrorism. I'm afraid sanctions hurt the ordinary people most. Iranians couldn't event receive cancer medication due to sanctions. This creates resentment and hurt amongst even the most Liberal people.

So I do very much hope sanctions are viewed as temporary to pressure the Russians to withdraw. It must not be seen as a permanent solution.

Agreed there. Agree too that Western companies will be wary of investing in Russia for a time!

Have the Chinese made any movements one way or the other in the last days does anyone know?

@AgnesWestern

I saw a video on TikTok that was uploaded by a young woman living in Russia. She said they have their own Instagram now, just for the Russian people. I think they’re starting up a new version of Macdonalds too. A ‘Russian own’ one.

Sort of Russian Brexit then

No, they haven't asked repeatedly for these deliveries to stop. The government have also made it easier for vehicles carrying donations to get through customs. However the quickest and easiest way to donate is to give money to a charity on the ground, like the Red Cross.

@Ijsbear

Agreed there. Agree too that Western companies will be wary of investing in Russia for a time!

Have the Chinese made any movements one way or the other in the last days does anyone know?

@shreddednips @RedToothBrush @Ijsbear

What do you think about the "no limits" deal signed between Russia and China and how that plays into where China will go? The landscape might have changed but a deal is a deal?

I read some analysis that said China is culturally aligned with Russia but economically aligned with the rest and it has to choose between these two stools. I wonder if a distinction might be made here between the US and Europe in economic terms (if China can't bear to side with US, I mean)

That's probably overly simplified it all!

West, not rest!

For no particular reason I am remembering when sanctions were "boycotts" and Mrs. Thatcher argued that they would only hurt the little people.

This was at the height of apartheid when ordinary folk made it their business to avoid buying South African. (And there was a shocking little filler in the Readers Digest about how some people misunderstood the reasons that I can't possibly repeat here ...)