Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

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I don’t trust him nor think he will act with humanity but I still think peace talks can happen and a negotiated outcome can be achieved

You have faith that both parties to a negotiated outcome mean what they say.

If putin accepts an outcome, that is a failure for him and an injury to his world-values and pride that is unacceptable.

A peace means time to regroup for a new attack, overt or covert, covert being the way he'll go.

Why, why do people think this individual has any good faith in the light of Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine?

Just how many broken promises do you want? Really? when does it become a matter of wishes-because-you-can't-bear-facing-what's-happening and what is actually happening?

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing a regimental commander.
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa.
Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to successfully contest Russian air operatio

What about reparation for all the damage to homes, schools, hospitals etc?

Just seen this story about a russian super yacht stuck in Norway because no one will sell it fuel. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60786467 I have to admit it made me smile and is the piece of news im going to go to sleep on

@Ijsbear

I don’t trust him nor think he will act with humanity but I still think peace talks can happen and a negotiated outcome can be achieved

You have faith that both parties to a negotiated outcome mean what they say.

If putin accepts an outcome, that is a failure for him and an injury to his world-values and pride that is unacceptable.

A peace means time to regroup for a new attack, overt or covert, covert being the way he'll go.

Why, why do people think this individual has any good faith in the light of Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine?

Just how many broken promises do you want? Really? when does it become a matter of wishes-because-you-can't-bear-facing-what's-happening and what is actually happening?

It’s not wishful thinking but I don’t get the imploring tbh no one knows for sure on here.

I’m listening to commentators speak on it to get insights rather than just getting posted at with why are you all so naive. It’s a bit off putting, and ok you think people are missing that piece of information fine, I’ll keep listening to what I can and not trying to second guess the outcome.

@smilingthroughgrittedteeth

Just seen this story about a russian super yacht stuck in Norway because no one will sell it fuel. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60786467 I have to admit it made me smile and is the piece of news im going to go to sleep on

Yes this made me chuckle too 😆

Someone linked a good piece by John Simpson iirc on the other thread. I can’t recall much only that on reading it I felt more hopeful than despair, over some of the pp. so it’s that kind of insight that’s useful.

Obviously there’s a spectrum but a this point I wouldn’t look at a post and think it definitive

MarshaBradyo the reason I find it frustrating is that Putin has used so many tools for 20 years and people are speaking as if the Ukrainian crisis came out of nowhere and a good set of peace talks will solve it.

There is so much more under the surface which is observable and if this particular crisis is resolved (after all these deaths) then Putin will keep on trying to destroy the states of Latvia, Poland and others who -want- self-determination.

While waiting for my younger's xray this evening (silly mischief) a Latvian in tears started talking to me because I gave him a hug (was covered in surface blood and booze). He was ashamed of his name Vladimir, which is crazy, it's not his fault!. He had an intrinsic recoil to the actions of Putin. It went very deep. People near the Russian border -know- what threat Putin brings, and they have been wantign to join NATO since the disintegration of the Soviet Union ... why? They seem to have sensed or known something we in the comfortable west did not.

@Ijsbear

Zelensky is currently in negotiations. Tell that to him.

No one is saying for a second that Putin can be trusted. Go back and read so that I don't need to rewrite the entire thing. Putin has been forced to the negotiating table. I don't believe that a settlement will be based on honesty, but rather self-interest. Ukraine's military capability should continue to be built so that it's an effective deterrent to future aggression, coupled with the new awareness of unified action by western countries. Make the costs prohibitively high. The US learnt from its disasters in the Middle East such that they're now singularly unwillingly to commit troops to such a morass again. However, Ukraine would continue to live under the shadow of an existential threat, because it won't be possible to demilitarise Russia thus guaranteeing Ukraine's security from a future attack. The threat will remain. The situation won't be settled.

Now tell me how you believe that Russia can be entirely negated as a threat to Ukraine.

You say "peace means time to regroup". Well, there will be peace under any possible outcome. Russia will be able to regroup, whether they reach a settlement now, or if/when Russia is forced to settle for holding Crimea, and Donetsk and Luhansk remaining independent.

How do you envisage it being made impossible for Russia to ever regroup?

The reality is that Ukraine is going to be an open wound for a very long time.

Just watched Winter on Fire.
Wow.
Ukrainians have fought for their country. Fought for change. Fought to get rid of a regime that they didn't want.

That has to something to your psyche. No wonder Russia is finding it difficult.

@Igotjelly

With the news on P&O and the release of Nazanin it feels a little like the Ukraine war is slipping down the headline list. Always thought it would happen at some point, we all have such a short attention span.

Very noticeable today. Of course, these stories are big and important (and great, with regard to Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe!) But surely not more so than the war in Ukraine? Couldn't quite believe it

@smilingthroughgrittedteeth

Just seen this story about a russian super yacht stuck in Norway because no one will sell it fuel. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60786467 I have to admit it made me smile and is the piece of news im going to go to sleep on

Indeed. The world is a much smaller place for the Oligarchs now.

What's the fun in owning a mega yacht and private planes if neither can take you where you want to go because they'll be impounded or won't be re-fuelled?

How many crew (often western) are going to continue to sell their souls crewing these "toys"?

Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things - they don't have the power to topple Putin, but there is some gratification in seeing their collective Achilles heels exposed.

Frankly I'd love to see the mega yachts already impounded used to house Ukrainian refugee families.

@shreddednips

"Peace when you're looking over your shoulder" is unfortunately the only kind of peace which exists in the world we live in. Or else why do you think that countries collectively spend trillions developing, building and maintaining weapons, capabilities and militaries?

Even the most optimistic scenario for Ukraine does not envisage the total demilitarisation of Russia. It will continue to be a threat for a long time.

Was total demilitarisation of Russia ever suggested? That is impossible.

@blueshoes

There are people on here suggesting that Zelensky shouldn't negotiate with Putin since he can't be trusted and will continue to be a threat.

My point is that Russia will continue to be a threat even under the most optimistic scenario. There is no scenario under which Ukraine is entirely insulated from the possibility of Russian aggression.

Negotiation - Russia having been forced to the table after failing to achieve regime change - may bring peace. If it fails, then they'd return to fighting as they already were. It shouldn't be outright rejected on the basis that Russia will remain a threat, because this will be the case under any scenario.

Apologies if this has already been posted but the mayor or Molitopol has been freed. I must admit that’s a very welcome and unexpected outcome - I don’t think anyone expected a happy ending there!

Yeah I would certainly agree that Russia will always remain a threat.

I have not read this thread too closely - trying to do some work for my employer without doomscrolling all day - and not sure I know which posters you referring to.

Personally, I think any peace deal that Putin agrees to before he realises for himself that he (after all, what lies are his generals feeding him?) is totally f_cked is just gaslighting from him to allow him to re-group militarily for a brief period before he can re-supply or slightly longer period to improve his military.

Therefore, just as Putin continues to bombard civilians and cities, Ukraine has to continue to do their darndest, with supplies from allies, to push Russia back to the pre-24 Feb borders and make Russia a spent force as far as this invasion is concerned. All sides are continuing to negotiate and long may that continue but until Putin has been pounded into the ground, I doubt any negotiated peace will last for very long. I don't know if that is possible for Ukraine to do but this is sadly based on what we know of Putin.

I personally would want more military aid to Ukraine from European allies, US and NATO. Planes even. The West has to take a stronger stand. It is criminal to let Ukraine fight on its own and for the atrocities to continue. This will not be a popular view.

I've been following, and greatly appreciating, these threads. I have a question. If a peace is negotiated, what is likely to happen with sanctions? I understand that it's a very delicate line and we wouldn't want the kind of situation that existed post WW1 in Germany, and also that Russia has its own capability to rearm (either domestic production or trade with non-US-aligned countries). But are there levers the West can use to limit the speed and ease with which Russia can become a military threat again? And what about other kinds of pressure e.g. economic? Surely it won't all go straight back to how it was in January?

@Ijsbear

MarshaBradyo the reason I find it frustrating is that Putin has used so many tools for 20 years and people are speaking as if the Ukrainian crisis came out of nowhere and a good set of peace talks will solve it.

There is so much more under the surface which is observable and if this particular crisis is resolved (after all these deaths) then Putin will keep on trying to destroy the states of Latvia, Poland and others who -want- self-determination.

While waiting for my younger's xray this evening (silly mischief) a Latvian in tears started talking to me because I gave him a hug (was covered in surface blood and booze). He was ashamed of his name Vladimir, which is crazy, it's not his fault!. He had an intrinsic recoil to the actions of Putin. It went very deep. People near the Russian border -know- what threat Putin brings, and they have been wantign to join NATO since the disintegration of the Soviet Union ... why? They seem to have sensed or known something we in the comfortable west did not.

the reason I find it frustrating is that Putin has used so many tools for 20 years and people are speaking as if the Ukrainian crisis came out of nowhere and a good set of peace talks will solve it.

Definitely not out of nowhere . I’m in the other direction in that this is a deep seated ambition for Putin hence why I question some ideas around light touches (oligarchs) or even stronger ones that (sanctions earlier) would have stopped this invasion.

And yes I get their desperation for increased security and freedom and again people have said the West should not have entertained this but it’s hard when someone wants it so much.

Cake I know, it really shows the mindset and desire for freedom in 2014

I think Dreaming made good points earlier on though re it being Ukraine focus.

Hard though when you are aware of their desire not to have this happen

I don’t know if peace talks will work, the feel of whether they will changes daily on news etc so have stepped back and will wait to see

Just listening to excellent speaker on Times radio

• he needs an off ramp to save face. Needs to lose but not feel like he’s capitulated

This is more the focus imo than whether he has humanity etc

@MarshaBradyo

Just listening to excellent speaker on Times radio

• he needs an off ramp to save face. Needs to lose but not feel like he’s capitulated

This is more the focus imo than whether he has humanity etc

My thoughts on this keep changing because there are so many elements that keep seeming to shift, I think I was probably being overly gloomy last night. I don't think Putin is going to approach negotiation with any seriousness unless he feels his grip on the power he already has slipping. The bigger his task in keeping control of Russia, the less dangerous I think he will be to Ukraine after any peace agreement IMO.

I think there are signs that he could be seriously concerned about his grasp on power though. He's hardly behaving like a man who feels he has everything under control at home.

@MarshaBradyo

Just listening to excellent speaker on Times radio

• he needs an off ramp to save face. Needs to lose but not feel like he’s capitulated

This is more the focus imo than whether he has humanity etc

I’m not sure dictators use off ramps especially when doing so would in his mind be a show of resounding failure.

Sorry totally random question, did we ever hear anymore about the thermobaric weapons? They were all over the news for a couple of days but have since disappeared.

I’m not sure dictators use off ramps especially when doing so would in his mind be a show of resounding failure.

What are you basing this on?

I’m repeating what I hear from various spokespeople and I’ve heard it a few times now.

It’s the difficulty of the path through - he needs to get something he didn’t have, but not all