Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

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Afp press agency @afp
Biden and Xi tomorrow will have their first call since a video summit in November

The US secretary of state said Biden "will make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression"

Not pussyfooting around then.

@RedToothBrush

Afp press agency *@afp* Biden and Xi tomorrow will have their first call since a video summit in November

The US secretary of state said Biden "will make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression"

Not pussyfooting around then.

I think they're playing it well. It gave me a bit of an 'eek' feeling at first because potentially driving a further wedge between the US and China is a gamble. But if China thought it could support Russia covertly, it must know that's not an option now. I still think when push comes to shove, economy and prosperity will win over ideology.

megynhelena not sure what you think PMK means, but it’s actually just a poster ‘place marking’ the thread so they can easily find it again. Nothing mysterious or interesting.

[quote Yeahthat]@megynhelena

Your posts are the most rational that I've seen here.

I'm sceptical bordering on contemptuous of anyone who's hawkish with others' lives while (invariably) having convenient excuses as to why they can't go and fight.

There will have to be some form of negotiated peace, with guarantees such as you've suggested. We should also continue to build up Ukraine's military capability so that it's an effective deterrent to future aggression. The alternative - the crushing defeat and demilitarisation of Russia to the point that Ukraine's security is permanently guaranteed - isn't possible.[/quote]
How do you guarantee this?

The Minsk agreement was supposed to do this:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements

It didn't. Cos Russia invaded Ukraine last month.

Thats ultimately the problem here. Ukraine can't just trust Russia to piss off. Cos this fight ends. Until the next one. There isn't a sense that this will be the last time. For Ukraine carrying on now, to stop Russia building up again - given they have no support from NATO is all they have because Russia is presenting a threat to their existence. Next time there may be nothing left to defend.

I don't think Mr Xi supported it, but I don't think he opposed it either. It's hard to believe he took it as being very serious, because Russia really didn't expect the degree of fury the invasion provoked. Ukraine used to be part of the USSR and the Crimea, honestly, you can see why Russia would consider it part of itself. The rest of Ukraine is a different matter ... and Putin got that totally wrong.

The context of the old Soviet countries who chose to broke free of the USSR dominion really plays a huge part here!

Russia objects to NATO but they are not acknowledging that the counties involved CHOSE actively to become part of NATO. Because they wanted to. Because .... they want their own sovereignty.

I still don't understand why people on this thread don't see that Putin promised things over and over and over and over again and then did exactly the opposite.

Is there some weird desperate belief that high politicians mean what they say?

@Ijsbear because of a couple of reasons I think

1. Desperation that somehow it's going to be ok especially with those of us with anxiety. That somehow there will be an off ramp that will de escalate things.

1. Those who is who haven't really experienced anything like this to this scale before

1. The belief that at some point someone will turn on Putin/Putin will try and 'save face'

Again I am wary of this source, but the Igor Sushko guy is saying that false flag terrorist attacks within Russia are part of the strategy.

I really hope biden has blinken or Jake with him.

I really hope hunters investigation doesn't throw a shadow on this..

We don't know Putin's motivation yet.

It could all be because his young gymnast lover spurned him. why on earth does she live in Switzerland, if that's true?

Does he still have good relationship with his family? I can't believe his educated paediatric daughter is happy about babies being killed? Young girl's loosing an arm?

Does he have anyone's to behave for?

Anything too loose?

@Ijsbear

I still don't understand why people on this thread don't see that Putin promised things over and over and over and over again and then did exactly the opposite.

Is there some weird desperate belief that high politicians mean what they say?

I fall somewhere between your opinion and PP's. I see peace negotiations eventually succeeding once Putin is in a deep enough hole- surely at some point, it becomes less about keeping his promises and more about what he can practically achieve with a choked economy, a disgruntled, hungry and grieving population, a lack of talented people to innovate (because they've all fled or he's sacked them/put them under house arrest for gainsaying him) and (hopefully) no allies willing to help him out. I don't think he's reached that point yet, but China adopting proper neutrality and meaning it would hasten the process.

After that, he'd have a hell of a lot on his plate to build up to a position where he could invade anyone again I would have thought. Maybe I'm being naive.

I agree with a lot of the points you make. Peace when you're looking over your shoulder or under occupation isn't really peace.

@RedToothBrush

"Security Guarantees" is a euphemism. The reality is that Ukraine will be living under a state of permanent threat, similar to other states living under the threat of enemies which don't recognise their right to exist. These are just my suggestions - I've no idea what's up for negotiation. But we must continue to increase Ukraine's defensive capability so that it's an effective deterrent to future aggression. There could also be agreements not to deploy specific types of weaponry, immediately revoked if Ukraine is threatened. Make the cost so high that any attempted future invasion is recognised as self-defeating.

But nothing will guarantee Ukraine's security; they're going to be living under the shadow of an existential threat for a generation or more. The situation is never going to be "settled".

The alternative is to comprehensively defeat Russia and demilitarise it to the point where they can never again threaten Ukraine. But that's impossible.

I am nodding along to all your posts @Ijsbear.

[quote elephantmarchingin]@Ijsbear because of a couple of reasons I think

1. Desperation that somehow it's going to be ok especially with those of us with anxiety. That somehow there will be an off ramp that will de escalate things.

1. Those who is who haven't really experienced anything like this to this scale before

1. The belief that at some point someone will turn on Putin/Putin will try and 'save face' [/quote]

You have points :)

I think that he removes entirely all emotion/compassion and thinks purely in terms of political domination for his own, probably half-conscious values thought. Them above all else.

@Ijsbear

I still don't understand why people on this thread don't see that Putin promised things over and over and over and over again and then did exactly the opposite.

Is there some weird desperate belief that high politicians mean what they say?

I think they view Putin through the lens of the west where war = bad and he will want peace. Because human life is precious.

Putin has never once shown anything but a disregard for people below him. He bumps off men he knows personally because he thinks they are a threat.

You cannot reason with this behaviour. He thinks he has the right to do it.

That's the issue. We in the west believe that you can ultimately reason with everyone and they will eventually compromise.

Putin doesn't think he should have to compromise. Its beneath his station to do so.

He is the toddler who doesn't yet understand the word no, because no one ever dares to say it to him. If they do, he just bumps them off.

The whole thing here is the idea that Putin is ultimately a reasonable man.

Reasonable men don't bump off their political opposition. Because the point is they don't want to reason in order to win an argument. They just want to win the argument by getting their own way unchallenged.

I think so many opportunities have been lost to contain him from way back.

However I think in this instance what should have been available was immediate un response to put peace keeping troops into Ukraine facing down Putin.
Yes I know, Veto , permanent members, etc!
But I believe that's something that should have been available to the world quite frankly!
To face him down and put a protective ring around these poor poor people.

@Ijsbear

I still don't understand why people on this thread don't see that Putin promised things over and over and over and over again and then did exactly the opposite.

Is there some weird desperate belief that high politicians mean what they say?

I don’t trust him nor think he will act with humanity but I still think peace talks can happen and a negotiated outcome can be achieved

Putin is a man who has to be forced to the table and told no. Not asked no.

@Ijsbear oh yes do I underneath what I've just said believe that it will happen...not really but to me the hope is that it will. I don't think I'm right as such but I hold out hope that at least talks are happening!

@RedToothBrush

I can assure you I don't. I presume that Zelensky doesn't either in the negotiations in which they are participating.

Essentially Ukrainian resistance (and the destruction of Russia's economy) will have forced him to negotiate and give up on regime change.

There are PPs who seem to believe that there's a route to removing Russia as a threat to Ukraine. That's not possible. Russia isn't going to be demilitarised. There will have to be some kind of settlement, and Ukraine will still continue to live under the shadow of an existential threat.

From reading the BBC article on the ‘points’ for negotiation it looks like most of what we’ve already guessed at.

Also looking likely Putin and Zelensky will possibly meet in person. That’ll be interesting to say the least.

I'm not sure if that would work now.
Maybe years ago When he was testing water's and learning the ropes.
I think that ship may have sailed.
He's already angry,lashing out and what's worse.. publicly!!
Sending public messages to his interior enemies!
He's, humiliated.
Alex Tolstoy said he's a narracist who will just do as much damage as possible.

I'm Just wondering what his nearest and dearest are doing/saying.

I'm finding it hard to believe mr ten foot table would Risk getting on a plane anywhere too meet him! He's been making people wait week's from his own teams!
I don't believe it

Small rays of light... people in the theatre seem mostly okay And Italy has offered to rebuild the theatre.

Thanks for all the brilliant and incisive analysis here ...not bad for nest of pearl clutching vipers ..

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