Today's lead story in the Daily Mail is about a Russian TV show and how guests on it defied new laws about criticising the way.
The story is actually running about two or three days behind when it was broadcast and has been reported elsewhere before so it the Mail picking up on this.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10600711/Ukraine-war-Guests-Russian-state-TV-invasion-like-Afghanistan-worse.html
Russian state television DEFIES President Putin's propaganda edict and broadcasts criticism of the war in Ukraine - with guests describing the shambolic invasion as 'like Afghanistan, but even WORSE
Semyond Bagdasarov, an academic, used an appearance on Russia 1's prime time talk show 'An Evening with Vladimir Soloviev' - a man referred to as Putin's propagandist-in-chief - to call on the Russian president to end the attack, while warning allies like China and India could soon turn their backs on Moscow.
'There are more people and they're more advanced in their weapon handling', he said, 'We don't need that. Enough already.' He then added: 'If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us.'
'This public opinion, with which they're saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilise things within the country.'
Karen Shakhnazarov, a filmmaker and state pundit, also sought to bust the Kremlin's narrative that it is conducting a limited 'special operation' in the Donbass region by referencing attacks on the capital of Kyiv - which is located hundreds of miles away.
'I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can't imagine how that would look,' he said, even as Putin's troops close in on the capital and launch attacks into the outskirts.
The pair spoke out despite the Russian government last week passing laws that threaten 15 years in jail for anyone publishing 'fake news' about the war - though the definition of 'fake' is set by the Russian government itself, meaning any an all criticism of the Kremlin's actions is likely to be classed as such
Now an academic and a filmmaker are exactly the type of people you would expect to be saying things like this. They are absolutely not likely to be reflective of wider public opinion by a long shot.
The TV host, has himself been sanctioned by the West because he's an important figure with a considerable amount of influence. Its not fringe. This is pretty much prime time.
It is slightly surprising that these two were even considered as guests though - it has to be something of a miscalculation by the show / channel. Especially after what the show had said in previous nights. Its quite something that these guests did do this all the same, as its undoubtable they will have consequences for it.
The tv host is mentioned in a daily beast article, again from a day or two ago, and complained that he was being bombarded with pictures of dead Russian soldiers. He wasn't alone. Other stars complained that they were being harassed by Ukrainians by phone and via the internet in what they described as an organised campaign.
www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-state-tv-stars-rage-about-getting-trolled-with-photos-of-dead-russian-troops-in-ukraine?ref=wrap
The discussion on another show was about how Russia was losing the information war and how organised the Ukrainians were.
This to me doesn't sound like an organised campaign. This sounds like an forced explanation following many Ukrainians contacting friends and family in desparation to try and let them know whats going on.
It was spontaneous.
It does show how much the Russians are nonetheless going to struggle to cover up huge numbers of dead. It cannot be. They will have to find alternative explanations and perhaps causes of death.
They can't say 'our strategy and tactics were fucking awful'.
When you look at it from this angle, claiming that Kyiv and Odessa have been developing chemical weapons - ahead of an assault also perhaps has another significance which may not show they are about to use chemical weapons. (Though it It may well be the case that they will)
But going back to Zugzwang theory - the army is stuck in Ukraine. They are in formation to attack Kyiv and therefore commited to doing so. They cannot just reverse. Especially not the Russian army. Its just not in their mind set to reformulate plans and revert to being flexible. The only thing they can do is commit even more to the original plan.
Yet by now, there will be an awareness that following through also means very heavy losses which will require a face saving explanation which suits their agenda and keeps the Russian public onboard.
What better than to say 'they were killed by chemical weapons' rather than admit that they are doubling down politically and don't care about the human cost even to their own. They won't want to admit to it being to a conscious decision to crack on to prevent a massive uturn despite it being very obvious that its going to be a blood bath to advance.
I think we need to be aware of the scale of the rhetoric and lies needed to be able to manage such huge military loses and what explanations thats going to require.
Even so, it does seem that there is awareness of the reality of the what the Russians have entrenched themselves into. Even if those who have said it, now disappear.
Its a mistake that America also made in Afghanistan. Funnily enough Rory Stewart documentary on Afghanistan was from 10 years ago and his point in that was that for ten years there had been a political inability to admit they had become embroiled in an insurgency they would never truly put down and at some point the US would have to accept this and make something an embarrassing exit. It was prophetic.