Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

I've been surprised by a discussion on a US-based site that the key players are Ukraine, Russia and the US. This isn't the impression I've had and seems rather US-centric, ignoring the role of EU and China, for a start.

EU has very little role - dwarfed by NATO

Biden refuses to discuss US exchanges with China, and indeed everyone seems to be pretty silent on China's thinking. I dint think they've backed a horse at all - they're just not on the same racecard

China has modelled much of its military modernisation on Russia. Now that the Russian army isn’t performing so well they are looking on with concern…

www.ft.com/content/4523d326-f79e-4924-aefc-ef3ceed93a01

Due to copyright, I can’t copy the whole article over. But note:

“Our armed forces were formed after the example of the Soviet Union’s armed forces, we have for a long time been acquiring most of our weapons from Russia, and we are engaged in close military exchanges with Russia,” said a retired PLA officer at the Academy of Military Sciences who requested anonymity. “A considerable number of our young officers have spent time in Russian academies, we have been exercising together and learning about each other’s command and control structures. So how they perform in battle is very relevant to us.”

There was a discussion on here a few days ago how the British military train such that if a senior officer falls out the rest know what to do and the chain of command is flexible and adaptive. Perhaps training for such an eventuality is always going to be easier in a more independent free thinking society than an autocracy?

I imagine it might not be easy for Russia to get Australian lithium for a while. Dunno if Chile would sell to them.

They are not in Russia's sphere, China has already made inroads that Aus have been fighting against for a decade or more, it's all being simplified into 'racist' rhetoric though.

From a think tank: merics.org/en/merics-briefs/chinese-debates-ukraine-eu-indo-pacific-forum-strategic-dependency

“Beijing’s conundrum
Moscow is evidently an awkward partner for Beijing and many moderates worry about the impact the relationship will have on China’s international reputation. Even some apologists believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a strategic mistake. So far, however, no one in China has dared call on their government to distance itself from Moscow. Many, like Cao Wei, a professor at China’s University of International Relations, are aware that “the foundations of this seemingly good relationship may not be as strong as they first appear.” Beijing is now taking extra care not to damage them. After all, as Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), writes, “You can change friends, not neighbours. China and Russia as neighbouring countries have to get along”.

According to many of these analysts, Russia remains the only “pole” in China’s ideal multipolar world that can both act as a counterbalance to the US and side with Beijing when required. Other potential “poles” such as India or Japan have already shifted too far westwards, they say. Still, the Chinese remain hopeful that the EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy could help curb the influence of the US and become a "breakthrough point for China's diplomacy" (中国外交的突破点). So, as one professor from Nanjing University recently remarked, the Russo-Ukrainian war has created a new conundrum for Beijing — how to preserve its ties with Moscow without damaging its relations with the EU. The longer and deadlier the war in Ukraine becomes, the more of a headache this will be for Beijing.”

I imagine it might not be easy for Russia to get Australian lithium for a while. Dunno if Chile would sell to them

I think it was an Australian company that have bought or tried to buy the Ukrainian lithium mining rights , a company called European Lithium ?

@workisnotawolf

From a think tank: merics.org/en/merics-briefs/chinese-debates-ukraine-eu-indo-pacific-forum-strategic-dependency

“Beijing’s conundrum
Moscow is evidently an awkward partner for Beijing and many moderates worry about the impact the relationship will have on China’s international reputation. Even some apologists believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a strategic mistake. So far, however, no one in China has dared call on their government to distance itself from Moscow. Many, like Cao Wei, a professor at China’s University of International Relations, are aware that “the foundations of this seemingly good relationship may not be as strong as they first appear.” Beijing is now taking extra care not to damage them. After all, as Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), writes, “You can change friends, not neighbours. China and Russia as neighbouring countries have to get along”.

According to many of these analysts, Russia remains the only “pole” in China’s ideal multipolar world that can both act as a counterbalance to the US and side with Beijing when required. Other potential “poles” such as India or Japan have already shifted too far westwards, they say. Still, the Chinese remain hopeful that the EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy could help curb the influence of the US and become a "breakthrough point for China's diplomacy" (中国外交的突破点). So, as one professor from Nanjing University recently remarked, the Russo-Ukrainian war has created a new conundrum for Beijing — how to preserve its ties with Moscow without damaging its relations with the EU. The longer and deadlier the war in Ukraine becomes, the more of a headache this will be for Beijing.”

Upshot is Putin had no idea of the scale of what he was going to unleash.

giving a max annual profit of somewhere around $ 40 million per year

Not a bad turnover for one of Putin's cronies though ? Not quite oligarch territory but not to be sniffed at if you have designs in that direction ?

Latest update from The ISW:

The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.

Full report here:

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-10

Has anyone looked into this more:

I am no supporter of Pirates who have plundered Russias wealth and buggerd off after doing deals with the devil BUT, surely this situation is more nuanced?

"Roman Abramovich has accepted an offer from Ukraine to help negotiate a “peaceful resolution” to the Russian invasion, Jewish News can reveal"

"The spokesperson told Jewish News: “I can confirm Roman Abramovich was contacted by the Ukrainian side for support in achieving a peaceful resolution, and that he has been trying to help ever since

“I can confirm that the Ukrainian side have been trying to find someone in Russian willing to help them in finding a peaceful resolution. They are connected to Mr Abramovich through the Jewish community and reached out to him for help. Mr Abramovich has been trying to mobilise support for a peaceful resolution ever since.

From Wiki

Family

Abramovich's family is Jewish. His mother, Irina Vasilievna Abramovich (née Mikhailenko), was a music teacher who died when Roman was 1 year old.[9] His father, Aron (Arkady) Abramovich Leibovich (1937−1969), worked in the economic council of the Komi ASSR.[10]

Roman's maternal grandparents were Vasily Mikhailenko and Faina Borisovna Grutman, both born in Ukraine. It was in Saratov in the early days of World War II that Roman's grandmother on the maternal side, Faina Borisovna Grutman, fled from Ukraine. Irina was then three years old.[11]

Roman's paternal grandparents, Nachman Leibovich and Toybe (Tatyana) Stepanovna Abramovich, were Belarusian Jews.[11] They lived in Belarus and, after the revolution,[which?] moved to Tauragė, Lithuania,[12][13][14] with the Lithuanian spelling of the family name being Abramavičius.

In 1940, the Soviet Union annexed Lithuania. Just before the Nazi German attack on the USSR, the Soviets "cleared the anti-Soviet, criminal and socially dangerous element" with whole families being sent to Siberia. Abramovich's grandparents were separated when deported. The father, mother and children – Leib, Abram and Aron (Arkady) – were in different cars. Many of the deportees died in the camps. Among them was the grandfather of Abramovich. Nachman Leibovich died in 1942 in the NKVD camp in the settlement of Resheti, Krasnoyarsk Territory.[11]

Having lost both parents before the age of 4,[12] Abramovich was raised by relatives and spent much of his youth in the Komi Republic in northern Russia. Abramovich is the Chairman of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Russia, and a trustee of the Moscow Jewish Museum.[15]

Abramovich decided to establish a forest of some 25,000 new and rehabilitated trees, in memory of Lithuania's Jews who were murdered in the Holocaust, plus a virtual memorial and tribute to Lithuanian Jewry (Seed a Memory) enabling people from all over the world to commemorate their ancestors' personal stories by naming a tree and including their name in the memorial.[16]

^^ I dont know much about him, today he has been directly accused of washing Putins money. Yes sanction him, yes his vague offer to give money to the war was stupid but do we actually understand his views? His daughter has actually been one of the children speaking out agaisnt Putin.

However, with this background doesnt anyone think he may actually be useful? His heritage is Jewish - Ukrainian?

Also what about his ex wife Dasha? The daughter of an oil barron also of Jewish heritage?

Interview with Alexander Vindman. Quite interesting....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySQX9HLnYwU&ab_channel=AmanpourandCompany

Auld I found this really interesting thank you, one wonders if the actual armies listen or know this stuff! In times of crisis how does information flow? Do they draft in consultants to play out all the scenarios?

Other potential “poles” such as India or Japan have already shifted too far westwards, they say.

Yes perhaps but not Pakistan.

Lavrov's stepdaughter in London 👀
twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518?t=Hc4mIc5wTkLsZYF-1L1C3g&s=19

On Sky they interviewed an ex nato leader (can't find a link sorry) but he categorically stated, through experience and knowing the ork, that Putin will escalate and we should have learned the lessons in history to act sooner rather than later, as we will have to act later. Sooner, saves lives.

He wasn't the only one either.

Putin will never back down, in fact he's doubling down.

US and UK putting out this chemical warfare stuff is to prepare us. That HAS to be the red line, surely

I saw that earlier @eglantine7 - fascinating. London is absolutely awash with them it seems...

And yet they hate their leaders hate the West. Should check out Rich Kids of Tehran on instagram same story..obscenely wealthy glamorous children of the high ranking Islamic regime peeps. Many of them study abroad.

Yes, I think Boris and US politicians mentioning Russian chemical warfare is an indication they have intelligence on this.

Has everyone seen the other thread on the Irish government refusing planning permission for the Russian embassy there to build a massive underground bunker with its own power and water supply? What kind of base of operations were they hoping for there?

@EsmaCannonball

Yes, I think Boris and US politicians mentioning Russian chemical warfare is an indication they have intelligence on this.

Has everyone seen the other thread on the Irish government refusing planning permission for the Russian embassy there to build a massive underground bunker with its own power and water supply? What kind of base of operations were they hoping for there?

I was wondering why Boris kept mentioning the chemical attack situation. He’s trying to make Russia aware that the world knows his next move with the hope he will think twice

Russia has just requested a meeting to discuss USA biological weapons they’ve apparently found, I wonder?!

Despots like Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot were ideological zealots. Putin and his Kremlin cronies are just gangsters. They don't actually hate the West as it's where they choose to store their money and assets and families. They enjoy the benefits of the West but need to performatively demonize it because what they really fear is the oppressed countries which are the source of power and wealth becoming more like it.

She's deleted all the posts from the Instagram account the photos in the article were from and set up a new one with a couple of photos of the Russian flag, clearly a Russian flag on a boat.

@EsmaCannonball

Yes, I think Boris and US politicians mentioning Russian chemical warfare is an indication they have intelligence on this.

Has everyone seen the other thread on the Irish government refusing planning permission for the Russian embassy there to build a massive underground bunker with its own power and water supply? What kind of base of operations were they hoping for there?

Haven't seen this reported? Can you link

It's in this thread in AIBU.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4501994-Aibu-to-wonder-what-Russia-is-up-to-in-Ireland

I was wondering why Boris kept mentioning the chemical attack situation. He’s trying to make Russia aware that the world knows his next move with the hope he will think twice

Surely that's a response to what the Russians started saying yesterday (? or was it earlier today?) about Ukrainian CW intentions/readiness.
Widely taken to be the start of a pretext for a false flag.

No reason to think it's an intelligence-led bit of speechifying when Russias already started on the theme

@VikingVolva

I was wondering why Boris kept mentioning the chemical attack situation. He’s trying to make Russia aware that the world knows his next move with the hope he will think twice

Surely that's a response to what the Russians started saying yesterday (? or was it earlier today?) about Ukrainian CW intentions/readiness.
Widely taken to be the start of a pretext for a false flag.

No reason to think it's an intelligence-led bit of speechifying when Russias already started on the theme

Yes, as soon as Putin said he’s uncovered USA biological weapons etc. Boris started bringing the “Russia are planning to use chemical weapons” into hiss conversations. Perhaps a way of saying “we know what your going to do, so don’t”

It was on sky news that Russia have asked to meet UN tomorrow for a meeting to discuss bio weapons found in Ukraine so hopefully that has been prevented now and will break out in talks rather than another war crime. We can only Hope

I fully admit that my googling skills are lacking. And I’ve probably missed info during these fast-moving threads.

Is there a definitive link/site to look at re homing Ukrainian refugees in the UK (as in no family links, just wanting to help)?

Things I’ve seen (but no idea if verified) are that you need at least £10k to sponsor a family - I don’t have that much money, but surely I can still help? Also, am sure I saw a few comments that they only want hosts who live in cities. Can understand this in some ways, for the younger population, re work opportunities etc. But what about elderly people who are on their own - surely SOME of them would be ok being homed in quieter, rural areas.

I’m semi-rural. No great job opportunities here, but am pretty sure that my spare room would suit a retirement-age woman (or, actually, blooming anyone) who needs even just a few weeks before moving somewhere more suitable?

Also, if this “cities” thing is a major requirement - I’m just wondering about the number of people that I’ve seen on news segments that are fleeing with their pets. It’s surely important to some, when choosing what to flee with, that pets are important to them.

If “sponsoring” is limited to cities/towns only - not all homes may be suitable for pets. And, understandably, not all hosts may want pets in their homes. I’d equally be willing to “foster” some pets until families are in a position to be reunited with them again. I keep thinking of old people who’s pet is their only companion, or families where the children are comforted by their pets. If, as a rural dweller, the only thing I could do was to take in a family’s pet, I’d happily do it - to give them the comfort that they’ll be reunited again at some point.

Sorry, I know this post isn’t anything to do with a major news update. But it’s the sanest bunch of threads I’ve been keeping an eye on. Posting in AIBU would result in disaster!