Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

Interesting Twitter thread on Lavrov's step daughter who lives in London. It's a few days old so apologies if it has already been mentioned.

Written by Maria Pevchikh, a Russian-British investigative journalist.

twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518?s=20&t=DCBPaLzj8otOak94AaCzZw

1. I would like you to meet Polina Kovaleva. Polina is a 26-year-old glamorous Russian girl from London🇬🇧. She lives in a huge apartment in Kensington and loves to party, her instagram feed looks like a non-stop holiday. That’s not unheard of, but there is one small detail…(THREAD)

1. Polina is the stepdaughter of Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov. Yes, THAT Lavrov. He is one of Putin's closest allies, his loyal talking head full of hot air and now also a war criminal.

1. Putin’s cronies often have two families at the same time. Putin himself, while being married to Ludmila Putina, had a second family with former gymnast Alina Kabaeva. Minister of Defence Shoigu had two wives and two sets of children simultaneously. And Lavrov is no different.

1. Lavrov has had the ‘official’ wife for the past 50 years. No one has heard of her or seen them together in public in ages, though. As opposed to this lady, Svetlana Polyakova. She is the actual wife, they have been together since the early 2000s.

1. Unlike Lavrov's official wife, that woman is loaded. She bought an apartment in Moscow worth $6-8m. In the picture below you can see Svetlana’s car collection. Not bad for an unemployed lady.

1. Svetlana also accompanies Lavrov on every official foreign affairs trip. Sometimes she even takes her 78 y.o. mother and her niece. The whole family are listed as members of the diplomatic mission. We found out that Polyakova has used the MFA plane more than 60 times.

1. Our glamorous Londoner Polina is her daughter from a previous marriage. Here are the pictures that Polina took at her mom’s house in Moscow. There are portraits of Lavrov on the table, very cute. On the third shot you can see Lavrov himself in the flesh.

1. Polina’s mom and Lavrov have been together for around two decades now. Polina’s biological dad isn’t super rich. She doesn’t have an oligarch husband. But at the age of 21, she bought this apartment in London on Kensington High Street for £4.4m.

1. She paid cash. No mortgage. £4.4m. Can anyone explain how this is possible? Her only source of money is her unemployed mother who happens to be Lavrov’s informal wife. This is the textbook example of unexplained wealth. The property can be legally seized right now.

10. Lavrov accused the UK of using chemical weapons TWICE. First time he claimed that the UK staged the Salisbury poisoning. And more recently he publicly accused me of poisoning my boss,
    @navalny , with Novichok at the request of the UK secret services, which he claims I work for.

11. Lavrov gave numerous speeches about the evil anglo-saxon world and the awful liberal western countries who want to destroy Russia and Ukraine. So why on Earth does his step-daughter live in the centre of London? Why not in Crimea or Donbass, why doesn’t she move there?

12. Polina and her mom must get sanctioned. Polina has to pack her Louis Vuitton suitcases, say goodbye to her British life and leave the UK. Should she not be able to explain where she got the £4.4m from, her property must be arrested under the Unexplained Wealth Order procedure.

13. Here is the list of the Lavrov family members who should never be allowed to set foot on the UK soil ever again:
    Polina Kovaleva 04.06.1995
    Svetlana Polyakova 28.11.1970
    Tamara Polyakova 01.05.1948
    Valeria Polyakova 09.08.2003
    Sergey Lavrov 21.03.1950

@CaveMum

Putin talking on tv right now, sounds like they're trying to find a way to seize assets/finances of foreign companies.

From BBC:

We're just listening to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, on Russian state TV.

He's talking about countries taking "unfriendly steps" against Russia and its economy - referring to sanctions placed on it by the West. (You can read all about them here)

He says demand is growing for certain things but he's in no doubt these problems will be resolved - "people will understand that there is simply nothing that we cannot resolve".

He then points the finger at the West, saying they've been "calling on their citizens to tighten their belts and put on some warm clothes" - and blaming the sanctions for the situation getting worse. "It's all looking very strange," he says.

He goes on to insist Russia is meeting its obligations on energy supplies and is not to blame for price rises.

"It's the result of their own miscalculations - don't blame us."

He says the Russian government can take over the assets of foreign companies pulling out of Russia.

He says Russia can "introduce external management" of those businesses closing their production facilities, and then "hand these enterprises to those who are willing to work."

"We'll find a legal way to do this," he says.

Nationalising everything? How very Soviet.

Not sure how much good Ikea is without the chain behind it though. Its just a warehouse with the stuff that hasn't been panic bought. There's no future for the company in a country where no one can afford a loaf of bread anyway, so they'll have already effectively had to right it off on the books anyway.

Not sure that retail and factory space is fetching a prime in Russia these days.

Unlike Kensington flat owned by Lavrov's step daughter that was bought for £4.4million from unexplained wealth.

McPutin's for a burger no one can afford sounds fun though.

I hope that everything that's been done to Ukrainian citizens happens to Putrid, his nazi henchmen and their families.

Damn all of them to hell.

I hope they choke on their McPutins as well and that the ice cream machine is permanently out of order because they don't have the maintenance cycle codes.

It was me who posted about a 39% Covid vaccination rate in Ukraine. I could well have misremembered the figure from last night's BBC news.

McDonald's have deliberately stated they are temporarily closing their operations in Russia in order to keep the door open to returning and so avoid having their assets there seized.

As for Putin, the best outcome for him if he can't have the whole of Ukraine would be some sort of concession on Crimea and the Donbas and that he gets away with all his crimes. I'm not sure I want to consider a scenario where he isn't tried for war crimes, etc., but could that be the very unpalatable solution?

When people talk about the partition of Ukraine they usually mean dividing it along the Dnieper, i.e. cutting Ukraine into eastern and western halves. This would obviously not be an acceptable outcome.

The recognition of the DNR and LNR would not be nearly as big a deal. They are relatively small regions on the Russian border. They have been controlled by Russia in practice for 8 years now. Ukraine can live without them for now.

The most pragmatic thing would be to take a long-term view about bringing those regions back into Ukraine. First, whenever Putin departs, this successor might be more willing to negotiate on this. But second, especially if Russia remains sanctioned, people in those republics will increasingly feel resentful and left behind as their living conditions worsen while the rest of Ukraine becomes more integrated with the West. They may eventually want to return.

Letting Russia have the DNR/LNR and Crimea may feel like rewarding his aggression but this was the status quo before the war, so it's not changing things that much in practice. I think Ukraine could live with this if it meant ending the war. Then focus on long-term winning them back (though I don't think this will ever happen with Crimea).

He says Russia can "introduce external management" of those businesses closing their production facilities, and then "hand these enterprises to those who are willing to work."

Lots to say about this but briefly a) further erodes - is that even possible!? - international business trust in Moscow b) adversely affects ordinary Russians c) keeps them in the arms of strongmen leaders banking on nationalism. So that in 10 years time when Putin 2 needs a bit of pep in the ratings department he gives Georgia/Moldova/wherever the side-eye and here we go again. How to get out of this mess, ever?

twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1501942521374855172
Timelapse map of Russian Movements (worth looking at)

In the replies to this is a tweet which has today's word of the day

Milo Jones @Inveniam
As I tweeted on 2 March, militarily Putin is in Zugzwang: he is required to make a move, but every available option makes his diplomatic, informational & economic situation worse. I still forecast a better than even chance of a good old-fashioned bank run in Russia by 15 April.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zugzwang
Zugzwang (German for "compulsion to move", pronounced [ˈtsuːktsvaŋ]) is a situation found in chess and other turn-based games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because of their obligation to make a move; a player is said to be "in zugzwang" when any legal move will worsen their position.

Although the term is used less precisely in games such as chess, it is used specifically in combinatorial game theory to denote a move that directly changes the outcome of the game from a win to a loss. Putting the opponent in zugzwang is a common way to help the superior side win a game, and in some cases it is necessary in order to make the win possible.

If Lavrov's family are part of the diplomatic mission then surely we can demand their expulsion? The Russians might expel a few British diplomats but that is just par for the course. I miss the John le Carré days when Russian diplomats were just plain old spies.

I agree with others that Putin isn't planning to invade all of continental Europe but I think that is an old-fashioned way of looking at it. It's about a battle for world dominance through ideology and way of life. Ukraine is being punished for showing disaffected Russians that you can throw off his regime and move towards democracy. He, Assad and their cronies are in the business of creating a chilling effect on any people thinking of deposing corrupt regimes.

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
The FSB is recruiting a new form of online trolls: young people whose job is to scour comments under social media posts or news items for statements that might be considered "extremist" or "seditious". Starting salary is $500. Creating the world's biggest network of snitches.

Stasi are back.

There are quite a few Western companies still operating in Russia. (I'm definitely going to be taking a boycott list with me next time I'm in the supermarket.) I wonder what the rationale is there? You have all these companies desperate to claim their ethical credentials with green-washing and rainbow-washing and whatever it was they all thought they were up to for International Women's Day, but they are prepared to risk a PR disaster in order to benefit the economy of a country where people are soon not going to be able to buy their products. Not all of them are companies with factories and shops in Russia, they merely export there.

The Spectator Index @spectatorindex
BREAKING: Kremlin says Russia will no longer participate in the Council of Europe

Jakub Jaraczewski@J_Jaraczewski
It appears that Russia is renouncing its membership in the Council of Europe rather than facing a humiliating (and likely landslide) vote on expulsion. If this is indeed an actual departure and not some "we're staying but we're not staying" move, three massive consequences:

1. ECtHR. Exiting the European Court of Human Rights would that Russia would no longer fall under the jurisdiction of the court. No more new cases against Russia, although RF citizens would still be able to lodge cases against other CoE Members.

2. Death penalty. There's a prevailing thought that it's the membership in the Council of Europe that prevents Russia from reinstating the death penalty. Given the increasingly fascist nature of the Russian state, this could mean a swift return of capital punishment.

3. Money. In 2020, Russia contributed 33m EUR to CoE budget - the fifth biggest contributor after Ger, Fr, It, UK. Russia's departure will leave a massive hole in CoE's finances - which the other members would need to fill somehow.

I realise that a lot of you will point out that 33m EUR is small potatoes, but in international organisation budgeting that's a massive headache of splitting the bill and opening old "but Spain is contributing far less than we do, shouldn't they foot more of that?" grievances.

Diplomacy is not just cognac and working out peace treaties, it's also shouting at that other person that their full member of the Council of Europe is contributing barely more than Argentina, a non-member on another continent.

There are birds chirping in Strasbourg that France and Switzerland were against the idea of kicking Russia out due to concerns over the death penalty part. At this point no points for guessing which CoE member was prepared to submit the notion to expel Russia.

While it's a Bad Thing, of note is the fact that the cooperation between Russia and CoE/ECtHR has been steadily going downhill over the last two decades. ECtHR jurisdiction has been challenged in a way that makes the Polish Constitutional Tribunal look like a footnote.

Russia has been operating under the "we pay out compensations when we lose cases before ECtHR but we don't implement the judgments in a meaningful way" assumption for quite some time, and even those payments have been recently stalling.

It was rather manifest that there's no way towards an improvement unless the government improves its policy, and the last two weeks have shown that things are only getting worse. Russia is increasingly shedding the last vestiges of being a lawful, human rights-respecting country.

Not having a major regional country as part of your organisation is bad, but having it around and acting like a rotten tooth that flouts the very foundations of that organisation openly is not the greatest look, either.

Lawyers are getting better and better at rapid-fire analysis in response to military-grade speed of developments, at @ECHRBlog
www.echrblog.com/2022/03/russia-will-no-longer-participate-in.html

I’ve just watched the only fools and horses episode “The Russians are coming” it was funny, but strange how we’re re-living this scenario again once more…even the thoughts of building a bunker!

@RedToothBrush

Christo Grozev *@christogrozev* The FSB is recruiting a new form of online trolls: young people whose job is to scour comments under social media posts or news items for statements that might be considered "extremist" or "seditious". Starting salary is $500. Creating the world's biggest network of snitches.

Stasi are back.

Probably taking a masterclass from Humberside police.

@CaveMum

I'm aghast that we are hosting and fixing the good life to their families?
The only reason I wouldn't want to kick them out is in case it make's any of them think twice about nuke's.

But it's beggaring all belief that they are living it up in our western democracies!.

Something need's to happen to them.lavrof!

@dreamingbohemian

When people talk about the partition of Ukraine they usually mean dividing it along the Dnieper, i.e. cutting Ukraine into eastern and western halves. This would obviously not be an acceptable outcome.

The recognition of the DNR and LNR would not be nearly as big a deal. They are relatively small regions on the Russian border. They have been controlled by Russia in practice for 8 years now. Ukraine can live without them for now.

The most pragmatic thing would be to take a long-term view about bringing those regions back into Ukraine. First, whenever Putin departs, this successor might be more willing to negotiate on this. But second, especially if Russia remains sanctioned, people in those republics will increasingly feel resentful and left behind as their living conditions worsen while the rest of Ukraine becomes more integrated with the West. They may eventually want to return.

Letting Russia have the DNR/LNR and Crimea may feel like rewarding his aggression but this was the status quo before the war, so it's not changing things that much in practice. I think Ukraine could live with this if it meant ending the war. Then focus on long-term winning them back (though I don't think this will ever happen with Crimea).

I fully support your cool headed and pragmatic peace solution, any chance we can put you in charge of peace negotiations ?

That said I cannot see how the Ukrainian President would accept it though as he would view as giving in to Putin the bully, with quite some justification. However as you rightly point out this was the de facto situation before the conflict, the Russians would probably accept it, it gives Putin as face saving solution without anything really changing from before and importantly stops this conflict spreading and spiralling out of control.

Ironically the greater the military support the Ukrainian President now gets from the West the more inclined he is to hold out on any concessions.

@dreamingbohemian

For clarification my comment about putting you in charge of peace negotiations was sincere and not sarcastic.

It is a great suggestion.

Ed O'Keefe @edokeefe
NEW from @CBSDavidMartin
A U.S. official estimates Russians have lost 5,000-6,000 killed in the first 2 weeks of battle. Standard battlefield math assumes 3x as many wounded as killed, so that puts the number of wounded at 15,000-18,000.

Interesting. Looking much closer to the European/Ukraine estimates.

Ed O'Keefe @edokeefe
Per @CBSDavidMartin
The U.S. official called them “very, very significant casualties” and compared them to the losses of some World War II battles. (2/2)

@RedToothBrush

Christo Grozev *@christogrozev* The FSB is recruiting a new form of online trolls: young people whose job is to scour comments under social media posts or news items for statements that might be considered "extremist" or "seditious". Starting salary is $500. Creating the world's biggest network of snitches.

Stasi are back.

Another reconstruction of the old times.

Thanks @1dayatatime : )

Nothing original on my part, I'm just seeing more and more commentary along these lines and I think it makes sense.

The old status quo would not make either side very happy BUT it has the advantage that both sides can 'sell' it to their people.

Ukraine would accept it right now because it means an end to the war and the withdrawal of Russia from the additional lands they have claimed in the last 2 weeks. They can be proud of their fierce resistance and strong new support from the West. There is a big heroic narrative to be built here.

There would have to be a lot of sweeteners for Russia to sell it. No NATO expansion (which Ukraine now accepts). A better situation for Crimea (restoration of water supply and perhaps a safe land passage for Russia). Some kind of de facto recognition of the DNR/LNR. New security guarantees could include limits on Ukraine rearming itself.

I'm not saying any of this will happen but it is not impossible, it would take a long time to work out but it could be done. The key thing is how long Ukraine can resist Russia militarily. If they can hold out until sanctions bite Russia even more, then even Putin may be swayed.

@RedToothBrush

Christo Grozev *@christogrozev* The FSB is recruiting a new form of online trolls: young people whose job is to scour comments under social media posts or news items for statements that might be considered "extremist" or "seditious". Starting salary is $500. Creating the world's biggest network of snitches.

Stasi are back.

Lol, Gerhard Schröder is to meet Putin for peace talks, even tho the German Govt don't want him to and his entire staff resigned because he won't step down from his super lucrative Russian gas companies senior positions.

Corrupt as a 3 week old rotten rat corpse.

oops, sorry, didnt mean to repost the bit about the FSB and surveillance

The evil side of me, perhaps you could call it the Mama Bear side, does think that perhaps we should give Ukraine war planes but then detain the ex-pat families of Kremlin politicians, Russian generals and corrupt oligarchs at sites most likely to be nuclear or chemical targets. I would probably make a very good world dictator.

@EsmaCannonball

The evil side of me, perhaps you could call it the Mama Bear side, does think that perhaps we should give Ukraine war planes but then detain the ex-pat families of Kremlin politicians, Russian generals and corrupt oligarchs at sites most likely to be nuclear or chemical targets. I would probably make a very good world dictator.

Anyone remember Keyser Soze ?

According to Kint, Söze began his criminal career as a small-time drug dealer. Horrifically though, one afternoon while Söze is away from home rival Hungarian gangsters attempt to intimidate him by taking his family hostage and raping his wife, then when he returns home, slitting the throat of one of his children right before his eyes. Determined to show these vicious criminals what toughness really means, Söze shoots and kills his own family and all but one of the Hungarians, letting the last leave so he can tell his cohorts what happened. Once his family is buried, Söze massacres the Hungarian Mafia, their families, their friends, and even people who owe them money. He goes underground, never again doing business in person, operating instead through oblivious underlings.

@RedToothBrush wasn't this at the request of one of the ukranien negotiating team?