Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

@herecomesthsun

It occurred to me that if we could find a way for Putin to step down and save face, that would be the best solution all round.

If it could be seen as a great act of statesmanship to minimize further bloodshed at this point.

Idle fantasy / wishful thinking no doubt.

Dictators don't step aside in great acts of statesmanship.

They get bumped off.

@UKRAINEwearewithyou

The UK is FINALLY sanctioning some of the Oligarchs.

The Chelsea fans interviewed care more about 'their club' than human life and suffering in a war on a free country though.

Chelsea are campaigning the government to allow them to continue as 'normal as possible' - Why? They took money from a Russian Oligarch and have prospered from that blood money. No idea where or whom it was stolen from. The club are now moaning and whinging. I hope they are back of the queue to be heard since more pressing matters concerning refugees from a war torn country. Some people care more about money than people.

I completely agree with this.

[quote 1dayatatime]@nonono1

Assisting vulnerable refugees with transport from Poland to the UK would be a helpful next step. Rather than them either being left to Poland or face the hardship of making the journey themselves.[/quote]
Do we know if Ukraine and a successful Covid vaccine program? If not, deploying vaccines and vaccinators could be a good idea.

Do we know if Ukraine has had a successful Covid vaccine program? If not, deploying vaccines and vaccinators could be a good idea.

Thank you @RedToothBrush for that explanation and to others too.

“@BeckyWithTheGoodHair010101

ScrollingLeaves
colouringindoors

BeckyWithTheGoodHair010101

Lavrov is saying that the maternity hospital had been taken over by Azov on 7th March and had no patients.
Whilst I would like to think he is a lying bastard - are we being played with Ukrainian propaganda also?

Did you not see the pregnant woman being brought out on a stretcher?

Did you read all my posts?”

No, I am sorry I had not read them all, nor all the thread. My apologies if I misunderstood your meaning, or the context of what you had written.

@BaBaBlackberry

Do we know if Ukraine has had a successful Covid vaccine program? If not, deploying vaccines and vaccinators could be a good idea.

39% population coverage was last figure that I read but Our World in Data has it at 36%.

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL

As above, vaccinators might be useful in combination with decent medical histories for people who have multidrug resistant TB or might have been exposed to various infections when they're evacuating or in shared spaces.

What Putin needs here is an off ramp, where he can claim victory without actually getting it. If he can go back to his people and claim he got Ukraine to refuse to join Nato, technically he could class it as a win as he can say they have successfully stopped nato coming to the borders of Russia. One would hope even if that could be established then a ceasefire could be agreed with the disputes about the crimea and Dombass are done diplomatically.

Right now though Putin needs to go back to Russia with some sort of victory. While no one wants him to have that victory, offering him a small one may stop the continued destruction of Ukraine.

IS IT REALLY TIME TO OFFER SURRENDERED RUSSIA SOLDIERS ASYLUM IN EU?

What a great way for Putin to smuggle a shed load of 5th columnists into the EU to attack it from the inside. That may even have been the game plan.

Probably one of the most naive comments I've ever read on here!

You may think this, but I for one have lived for more than 70 years and have seen things happening that for many on MN have only read in the history books. It was perfectly possible for an island nation to have kept out of a European land war. Switzerland as a land locked country remained neutral. Sweden did technically, although the Norwegians would disagree that they were really neutral.The USA only got involved when Pearl Harbor was directly attacked by Japan. Hitler is believed to have been more interested in eastward expansion.

@BaBaBlackberry

Do we know if Ukraine has had a successful Covid vaccine program? If not, deploying vaccines and vaccinators could be a good idea.

I asked a couple of days ago what effect all the millions of people moving around so quickly and so disparately might mean for covid. Because I can see that being a bigger story than this if things go badly.

Thanks Magic and Marsha

I don't know if this will be further reassuring or not but -- there are dozens of conflict scholars in my department, no one thinks we are headed for nuclear war. The nuclear risk must be managed but it is extremely unlikely that we will see nuclear use.

Also we should not worry too much about China sticking their necks out for Russia. They are 'strategic partners' not allies. China will do whatever is best for China, that does not include getting dragged into wars or crushing sanctions. China has a ton of investment in Eastern Europe, it will not want to see anything escalate further.

Zelensky will address the Israeli Parliament via zoom 'soon' apparently.

Noga Tarnopolsky @NTarnopolsky
#Breaking: Knesset Speaker @MKMickeyLevy has accorded with the Ukrainian ambassador that President Zelensky will address Knesset members via Zoom at a date to be set soon. He blames the fracas on "misinformation published in the media."

News reporter at a refugee processing place somewhere the other day said a man in the background had just been vaccinated, she presumed covid vaccine.

When they were crossing into another country perhaps? Not sure

Ukraine vaccination stats as of 23 Feb (I doubt there will be any further updates). Just over 1/3 of the population has been vaccinated, and the proportion of the whole population by number of doses is:

First dose: 35.6%
Second dose: 34.5%
Boosted: 1.6%

No, Putin winning is not the more likely outcome.

The end of this war will result in some kind of partition of Ukraine.

"The response that we are getting from the NATO countries is that they are not ready to even discuss having us in NATO, not for the next period of five or 10 years. We are ready to discuss some non-NATO models. For example, there could be direct guarantees by different countries like the U.S., China, UK, maybe Germany and France. We are open to discussing such things in a broader circle, not only in bilateral discussions with Russia but also with other partners."

Source: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia

www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-open-discussing-non-nato-models-negotiator-tells-fox-news-2022-03-06/

And:

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia.

I'm talking about security guarantees.

[Donbas and Luhansk] have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on."

"What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in.

So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them.

"This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen."

Source: Ukrainian President Zelensky

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership

In other words, Ukraine wants a security guarantee agreement from the United States, United Kingdom, France and so on on a personal State to State level.

With zero involvement from NATO.

Zelensky also seems to be open to discussing the possibility of Ukrainian partition which is something I discussed on the previous page or two as the most likely outcome.

But partition is not easy or simple to do given both Russia and Ukraine will have a significant minority in either state who don't want to be part of one or the other.

So, it looks to me that Ukraine is talking about:

1. Security guarantee for Ukrainian Security as a state similar to the Budapest Memorandum. But much more robust and binding on the West.

2. Security guarantees for any Ukrainian minority who might yet find themselves living on the Russian side of the border in the east.

As I said, I see this ending in partition with a smaller Ukraine and slightly bigger Russia.

If anyone can't afford to buy Tom Burgis's Kleptopia, he has done a podcast which is up on The Spectator website. I've ordered the book off the back of listening to it. My takeaways from the podcast -

Kleptocrats put out disinformation about endemic ethnic or religious enmity and violence in order to cover for their own violence. (e.g. Ukrainian Nazis vs. Russian-speaking people.) It's part of a playbook.

The West was vain and naive to assume involvement with dictators and oppressive regimes would democratize those regimes. The opposite has happened; they have made us more corrupt.

Kleptocrats doubly benefit by taking advantage of corruption and human rights violations in oppressive regimes to steal resources while also taking advantage of security and the rule of law in democracies to hold onto their wealth.

We really owe Ukraine because it is bearing the terrible price of years of Western complicity with corrupt regimes.

Donald Trump is a wanker but, if possible, Tony Blair is an even more venal wanker.

Putin talking on tv right now, sounds like they're trying to find a way to seize assets/finances of foreign companies.

From BBC:

We're just listening to Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, on Russian state TV.

He's talking about countries taking "unfriendly steps" against Russia and its economy - referring to sanctions placed on it by the West. (You can read all about them here)

He says demand is growing for certain things but he's in no doubt these problems will be resolved - "people will understand that there is simply nothing that we cannot resolve".

He then points the finger at the West, saying they've been "calling on their citizens to tighten their belts and put on some warm clothes" - and blaming the sanctions for the situation getting worse. "It's all looking very strange," he says.

He goes on to insist Russia is meeting its obligations on energy supplies and is not to blame for price rises.

"It's the result of their own miscalculations - don't blame us."

He says the Russian government can take over the assets of foreign companies pulling out of Russia.

He says Russia can "introduce external management" of those businesses closing their production facilities, and then "hand these enterprises to those who are willing to work."

"We'll find a legal way to do this," he says.

Chelsea are campaigning the government to allow them to continue as 'normal as possible' - Why? They took money from a Russian Oligarch and have prospered from that blood money. No idea where or whom it was stolen from. The club are now moaning and whinging. I hope they are back of the queue to be heard since more pressing matters concerning refugees from a war torn country. Some people care more about money than people.

They employ a lot of people and most of them on minimum wage probably. Some of us cannot be choosy, you work where you can.
I do not know about Chelsea, but when our local clubs got relegated, a lot of people lost their jobs (cleaning, catering, security, training ground staff, etc.)

Putin holding on to Donbas and Crimea will be an absolute travesty because the only reason he forcibly seized those places in the first place is because they are the most valuable parts of Ukraine for his mafia cronies. The idea that he was rescuing Russian-speaking people from Nazis was an utter smokescreen. I guess the horrible realpolitik is Putin holding onto them but it will probably just kick the conflict with Putin further down the road. Hopefully we will be better prepared them. (Or the Russians will have a Euromaidan of their own.)

One thing I'll say from listening to him is he doesn't seem to be someone he'll bent on mutual destruction anytime soon.

I definitely feel that from last week there is a change of tone from Putin of crazy Madman threatening nukes and accusations of war declarations, to looking at the future of how he can keep russia economy going and him stay In power.

Yay, they're going to make their own fries in the McDonalds outlets 😃

Putrid would look great with a Gucci handbag slung over his arm 😘

@Tuba437

What Putin needs here is an off ramp, where he can claim victory without actually getting it. If he can go back to his people and claim he got Ukraine to refuse to join Nato, technically he could class it as a win as he can say they have successfully stopped nato coming to the borders of Russia. One would hope even if that could be established then a ceasefire could be agreed with the disputes about the crimea and Dombass are done diplomatically.

Right now though Putin needs to go back to Russia with some sort of victory. While no one wants him to have that victory, offering him a small one may stop the continued destruction of Ukraine.

I saw in the Guardian yesterday that American officials say they have been suggesting off ramps to him but he isn't interested, he's more intent on escalating.

@Tuba437

One thing I'll say from listening to him is he doesn't seem to be someone he'll bent on mutual destruction anytime soon.

I definitely feel that from last week there is a change of tone from Putin of crazy Madman threatening nukes and accusations of war declarations, to looking at the future of how he can keep russia economy going and him stay In power.

Obviously his actions in Ukraine are still dispicable