Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

@ClaudineClare

I’m sure back in the early 1940s British people didn’t want to go to war because it was over there and not here. Did we wait until hitler was bombing London before we went in?

We were already at war in the early 1940s. We entered WW2 in 1939.

I don't think you can compare WW2 to what is happening now. The world is utterly different and so is warfare.

In the early 40s, there were reports that people wanted to surrender in response to the Blitz.

Media, Myth and Terrorism: A discourse-mythological analysis of the 'Blitz Spirit'

books.google.com/books?id=zuO_CQAAQBAJ&pg=PT18&lpg=PT18&dq

Agreed that the world is different. However, when history doesn't repeat it certainly rhymes so some of the reports about the impact of the weather on warfare have been reminiscent of Napoleon: Generals Janvier and Février (January and February) defeated Napoleon (Moscow campaign).

Let's say it was even true that Ukraine does have chemical and biological research facilities. Most developed countries have these. It would be odd if they didn't have them. They wouldn't even necessarily be related to military defence.

I think that Lavrov is about as dangerous as Putin, a very difficult man.

"The Azov Battalion operating out of the maternity hospital that the Russians bombed"

So it was bombed deliberately? Not reckless misfire?

@EsmaCannonball

Let's say it was even true that Ukraine does have chemical and biological research facilities. Most developed countries have these. It would be odd if they didn't have them. They wouldn't even necessarily be related to military defence.

Is Russia setting things up so any sort of attack with chemical weapons can be blamed on them unknowingly blowing up a laboratory or something like that?

@ClaudineClare my bad the 1930s then!
You sure we can’t compare?
Hitler occupied various countries, pushing boundaries and testing the worlds willingness to turn a blind eye. Is that not what putin is doing now? What’s different? At the basic level, not types of warfare, and weapons advances but at the basic level please tell me what the difference is?

"I’m sure back in the early 1940s British people didn’t want to go to war because it was over there and not here. Did we wait until hitler was bombing London before we went in?"

++++

I genuinely believe that history does have a habit of repeating itself but it depends on which part of history you compare it to.

I find it interesting that on historical comparison there is a tendency to look at the most recent relevant event. So in this case Putin is acting like a Hitler and that if we don't stop him in Ukraine then which country is next.

Given the mauling Russian troops have received in Ukraine I do not believe he would be too keen to try the same actions against a much tougher opponent such as Poland which is in any event a NATO member.

Instead I see a closer historical comparison to the Summer of 1914, where the population was encouraged by the media accounts of atrocities and certain politicians into a frenzy to "take the fight to the evil Hun" in a war that they thought would be over by Christmas 1914.

Except 4 years later and 20 million deaths in didn't turn out that way.

We are in a very dangerous situation, more dangerous than the Cuban crisis in 1962 and I hope cool heads will prevail.

@TokyoSushi

I think that Lavrov is about as dangerous as Putin, a very difficult man.

I agree. His complete lack of humanity is chilling.

A very trivial Chelsea point, but do season ticket holders have to buy away tickets? So if they can't sell tickets, then they won't have any away fans?

@MarshaBradyo that's a great charity. However, I'm part of a Church and we have 2,000 members in Ukraine, many have fled. There are people on the ground in Budapest, Warsaw and Chisinau. We are trying to house them in families from our church. Families in Europe are hosting and even the US is now starting to offer this but so far we cannot, although in the UK we have more members than in Europe and it is not as far away from loved ones left in Ukraine as the USA. 😞

Agree @ClaudineClare I find him really quite scary

Yes, Lavrov has actually said the Russians had intel that the maternity hospital had been cleared of patients so the Azov Battalion could use it as a base.

Reversemode @reversemode
A week ago, ~40,000 SATCOM terminals were knocked out in Ukraine and other European countries. I just published a technical analysis of that incident, based on the information publicly available and my experience in that field.

www.reversemode.com/2022/03/satcom-terminals-under-attack-in-europe.html?m=1

From the very beginning Eutelsat and its parent company Viasat, stated that the issue was being investigated as a cyberattack. Since then, details have been scarcely provided but few days ago I came across a really interesting video in the following tweet.

In the video, the Commander General Michel Friedling confirms that the incident was originated by a cyberattack. However, he also provides a key detail that has the potential to turn a boring DDoS scenario, as some initially pointed out, into something much more interesting: "the terminals have been damaged, made inoperable and probably cannot be repaired"

So this is an attack directed not just at Ukraine.

@EsmaCannonball

Let's say it was even true that Ukraine does have chemical and biological research facilities. Most developed countries have these. It would be odd if they didn't have them. They wouldn't even necessarily be related to military defence.

To be fair, I've got stuff in my home that would lead me open to the accusation of the ingredients for chemical weapons.

I have strong ammonia (oven cleaning); >99% acetic acid (cleaning) and several other chemicals that I use for fermentation and tofu. I also have secondhand repurposed lab equipment that I use for cooking (some sous vide sets): if I could safely house an effective centrifuge then I would as there are recipes that I've wanted to try for literally years.

Also being pointed out delay on Abramovich sanctions is in part due to getting the legal stuff right, so they are watertight and can't be challenged as easily.

Which is fair point actually.

Sam Cunningham @samcunningham
Exclusive: Chelsea CAN still be sold by Roman Abramovich provided none of the proceeds benefit the Russian oligarch, a government source has told @iPaperSport. Government will consider an application for a licence to sell. In dialogue with #CFC.

@RedToothBrush

Also being pointed out delay on Abramovich sanctions is in part due to getting the legal stuff right, so they are watertight and can't be challenged as easily.

Which is fair point actually.

Yes agree, better to have a short delay and get them right.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I started to watch Question Time last night. The ex prime minister of Denmark was on. She was amazing. There was some senior lecturer in war studies and Ukraine, he was also very interesting.

Then Dd age 15 came down and talked through the last 20 minutes of it😭. It wasn’t on iplayer last night. But if it does appear it worth watching. Very much so.

The senior lecturer in war studies is Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman and he is THE expert in strategic studies. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Freedman

He's been providing some very interesting analyses on Substack, which have been linked on these threads. Here's his latest
samf.substack.com/p/giving-peace-a-chance?s=r

[quote Memememememwmwm]@ClaudineClare my bad the 1930s then!
You sure we can’t compare?
Hitler occupied various countries, pushing boundaries and testing the worlds willingness to turn a blind eye. Is that not what putin is doing now? What’s different? At the basic level, not types of warfare, and weapons advances but at the basic level please tell me what the difference is?[/quote]
There are similarities yes, but the fact that there are now WMDs both nuclear and biological makes a massive difference in how we respond.

As the military expert chap on QT said last night, war is unpredictable. Wars have a habit of going in directions that are unexpected, of having unintended consequences. IMHO this is why cool heads must prevailand we must not escalate this war unless there is no other choice.

Sam Wallace @samwallacetel
'Russia Regulations' license also prohibits Chelsea spending more than £20,000 on any away game travel, which asks serious questions of Champions League logistics, starting with Lille away next Wednesday

Sorry, he was a war expert as possible have outlined.

Possible=pps

@1dayatatime thank you for that, I compare to WC2 because it’s the only one I have vague knowledge about. I dropped history as soon as a I could. I remember learning about the Viking’s, about bodies in bogs and about hitler and the holocaust and nothing else. Despite growing up in Derry I didn’t know until I was in my 20s that Ireland had been it’s own independent country for less than 100 years.

A quick peek at Google Scholar will tell you that they are indeed studying cholera in Ukraine. No surprising seeing they have out brakes in the last 20 years. They have even published papers on it. If you were about to be invaded it would make sense to dispose of any live strains safely.

@Memememememwmwm

"@MarshaBradyo I don’t think he will go to all out mass firing of nuclear weapons. I wouldn’t put it past him to use tactical nukes in Ukraine or possibly on a nato country as a demo of “look I can do this if you don’t go away and let me carry on” . I think first when will unleash the horror of chemical/biological weapons at Kyiv."

++++++

I completely agree with your analysis that it it is certainly possible Putin could use tactical nukes but first starting with chemical weapons at Kyiv because it would too costly in Russian lives to take the city by conventional means, assuming that they even succeed which is questionable.

Where I disagree with you is that this wouldn't then lead to an all out nuclear war. Once a tactical nuke has been used (the first time since 1945), the nuclear rubicon has been crossed and the only way from there is escalation.

There is an interesting video from Princeton University "Plan A" on how this could easily happen:

We are in a very very dangerous point in history and cool heads need to prevail here.