Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

@MarshaBradyo

How can people be certain there will be a next time but also not worry about nuclear escalation if NATO intervenes?

Where does that level of certainty come from

Exactly this. Once you have two nuclear powers in conflict you can never be certain that it won't escalate to the point of no return. It should be avoided at all costs. The world is awful

Perhaps if Putin wants to use nuclear he will use them - it doesn't matter what we do or don't do.

Obvs the intelligence experts have a greater sense of certainty as I don't have a clue - but in general this is my experience of bullies .

The way the light fall's.

Something about the planes doesn't add up.

Blinken was in Poland day's ago how could communication about the logistics be so bad to lead to this confusion and then why talk about it?

Maybe it's sheer incompetence, maybe they are public saying one thing but behind the scenes doing another?

It doesn't seem like Putin has many allies worth worrying about if this escalated except China.
Another power we always appease.
NATO v an extended Putin with massive money worries, doesn't seem like too much of an issue.

But if China did side with Putin and got involved then that would be catastrophic.

( Caveat / I am an arm chair observer chatting on a thread in chat forum.)

Masha re cool heads, one hopes at a high level there are spies in the Kremlin and they are getting good intel. One hopes.

I get the playground bully analogy but at the same time reducing this to something so simplistic also seems like a bad idea. The potential outcomes for everybody aren't at the level of a slap on the wrist. We can't ignore that. This is a world that we have helped to create and now have to work within. It's shit.

Still here now, as others have suggested it's more likely to be localised nuclear or....he could hold us all to ransom via all the nuclear site's.

With hindsight maybe inspite of Russia veto peace keeping troop should have been immediately sent to the site as soon as Putin's first tank parked on the border.

Remember apparently Putin has children scattered in Europe!

I think the bombing of the maternity hospital was deliberate and part of Putin's psyops plan to instill fear into anyone who may be thinking about stopping him. That along with the early threat of a potential nuclear strike. Plus the takeover of Chernobyl and bombing of that other nuclear plant, again both ways of instilling fear as to what could potentially happen the longer this war goes on. He may well order a chemical attack, too. All of this will of course be replayed to his people as our fault, not his doing.

I believe Putin wants us, the general population, to be so repelled we scream at our governments not to get further involved, which of course plays into his hands as he can grab Ukraine without opposition, and only face the Ukrainians remaining. I think this is his strongest suit, and potentially he could go down this route again if his attention turns to another country, like Moldova. Putin is not going to stop unless we stop him.

@MagicFox

I get the playground bully analogy but at the same time reducing this to something so simplistic also seems like a bad idea. The potential outcomes for everybody aren't at the level of a slap on the wrist. We can't ignore that. This is a world that we have helped to create and now have to work within. It's shit.

Agree. We might have opinions on here but tg it’s people with more expertise and information making hard decisions.

I hear Truss likened it to 9/11 and is speaking today in US. Not sure what her general line is when she says get tougher. I’m glad US is in NATO and generally takes lead

I'm not convinced at all he would dare try and take another country.

@MagicFox

I agree, I find the ‘bully’ analogy really simplistic and quite childish to be honest.
Yes he’s a bully, but would you stand up to a bully in the playground who had a knife? I think most people wouldn’t…
It’s the same issue here but much worse as he has nuclear capabilities to take out the whole world.
I think there needs to be concentration on getting as many civilians out as possible and providing weapons and aid. That’s all we can really do.

A scenario where the west / NATO went into this conflict would give Putin a great narrative to say “Look they’re attacking us” and that we “started” on them. I know that’s ridiculous given what he’s doing at the moment, but that’s how he would spin it.

I also believe he thinks what he’s doing is right and therefore it’ll be much harder to deal with that mentality.

we whine about gas costing more while we watch people fleeing bombs and say oh dear it’s horrible but we won’t risk us!

I have to say that I too am starting to agree with this. But @Memememememwmwm I would be interested to know what you think we should do? It’s such an impossibly difficult situation.

Can I please ask what people think “the west” intervening actually looks like? Because I’m struggling with nothing but us making it worse for them and everyone else?

I believe Putin wants us, the general population, to be so repelled we scream at our governments not to get further involved

@CrunchyCarrot I personally think it’s the exact opposite. The worse the atrocities he commits, the more public opinion in the west is likely to turn towards getting involved. It feels like he’s poking us harder and harder until we retaliate.

@TiddyTidTwo

"It was shelled, wasn't it? Those are area weapons, not targeted ones. So when they fire a bunch of them into a city, they dont know exactly where they will land. They may not have been targeting the hospital - just reckless as to what in the city the shells landed on"

No excuse and in 2022 executable. It's not bows and arrows warfare anymore

And now the Whitehouse are strongly, very strongly hinting chemical weapons are about to be used. So.... my above point stands

No one is suggesting it's an excuse - it's the reason.

I assume you know the marketplace massacre, and the shelling of civilian population in Sarajevo, were prosecuted (successfully) as war crimes?

It is however laws of physics and the nature of military weapons that you cannot use shells as targeted projectiles. They are area weapons.

And I think some media commentators have lost sight of elements of old Soviet type military doctrines (or have never looked them up). Not all campaigns are shock and awe, when you throw everything at the initial attack and then roll in. One alternative is that you send a smaller force and see how they do. If they take the objective, great. If not, they have learned about the defenders by probing them, and will apply more force as required for as long as required, and increasing intensity as required.

Non-conventional weaponry was, I think, always on the cards.

I don't know what to think anymore. It's absolutely horrific and hope seems to be fading, although many commentators seem to have thought Russian supremacy was inevitable anyway. There's a distinct lack of clear information on the military side of things and I think we can assume civilian deaths are much higher than is being reported.

It is barbaric to besiege towns and cities like this and you've got to wonder what on earth will be left afterwards and what the point of it all is/was, other than the psychopathic destruction of Ukraine by someone who couldn't bear not possessing it.

I'm not convinced at all he would dare try and take another country.

I think he would (speaking as a spectator- I have no more insight than the next person). But that Putin, thanks mainly to a poorly equipped and demoralised army owing to cronyism and corruption, is having his ambitions curtailed. Hoisted by his own you know what. But sadly their chemical (let alone nuclear) warfare capabilities seem to be in a better state. Unless they’ve also been raided and the proceeds are currently floating off the coast of Belize, I’ve no idea. There’s endemic corruption in Russia, which works in our favour imo.

Our getting involved will only cause more death and destruction. It won’t help Ukraine. I can’t believe anyone could think otherwise.

Personally I think Putin is very calculated and will go as far as he can go without us getting involved. Then using this during negotiations to say to Ukraine... look the west isn't coming to save you which will give them more leverage in a deal.

Most government have already admitted the worst is likely yet to come so they are prepared to see these horrible attacks happen. I think the Polish jets showed a clear stance that we won't be getting involved as that is less high risk than a no fly zone and they wouldn't even agree to that.

The EU (and Germany in particular) really have been breathtakingly naive in terms of their over-reliance on Russia. Trump got a lot of things wrong but he was absolutely right about this:

President Donald Trump has signed a law that will impose sanctions on any firm that helps Russia's state-owned gas company, Gazprom, finish a pipeline into the European Union.

The sanctions target firms building Nord Stream 2, an undersea pipeline that will allow Russia to increase gas exports to Germany. The US considers the project a security risk to Europe.

Both Russia and the EU have strongly condemned the US sanctions.

The Trump administration fears the pipeline will tighten Russia's grip over Europe's energy supply and reduce its own share of the lucrative European market for American liquefied natural gas.

President Trump has said the 1,225km (760-mile) pipeline, owned by Russia's Gazprom, could turn Germany into a "hostage of Russia".

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50875935

@nonono1 I personally think it’s the exact opposite. The worse the atrocities he commits, the more public opinion in the west is likely to turn towards getting involved. It feels like he’s poking us harder and harder until we retaliate.

I don't see how that would be a win for him, though. I think Putin thinks we are weak - mentally if not in actual weaponry. I think for those of us in sane mind it's very hard to figure out just what he is thinking as it makes no sense - to us.

@reqding Also please excuse my ignorance but what exactly is a chemical weapon?

It's when you use certain, specially developed chemicals in projectiles. Think back to mustard gas that was delivered in shells in WW1.

Since then there have been advances in the range and types of chemicals that have the right characteristics to be delivered by a missile, plus of course in the types of missiles and devices that can deliver the chemicals to the battlefield

www.opcw.org/our-work/what-chemical-weapon

Incidentally both Russia and Ukraine are states party to the OPCW

Thankfully most people I know in real life don’t want to get involved in this, although they’re repulsed by what’s happening. They’d rather help in other ways. Even by housing a refugee family.

Why don’t those of you who are feeling so incensed by it all do something like that?

@MarshaBradyo

How can people be certain there will be a next time but also not worry about nuclear escalation if NATO intervenes?

Where does that level of certainty come from

A really good question.

I think it comes down to the choice between:
a) if NATO does not get involved then there is a high probability that the war will continue and Ukrainians will die and suffer.
versus
b) if NATO does get involved then there is a lower probability but higher cost of escalation into a nuclear conflict in which people across the whole world will die and suffer.

In short it's a question of feeling guilty about not stepping in to support the Ukrainians against a bully versus not wanting to die in a nuclear conflict.

It is barbaric to besiege towns and cities like this and you've got to wonder what on earth will be left afterwards

Sarajevo is an apt example

and what the point of it all is/was

That'll depend on what the wider outcome is: 'History is written by the victors" and right now we can hope, but cannot yet predict.

@1dayatatime

I’ll talk the first option, I don’t want to die in a nuclear conflict.
Surely most people would?! It’s not going to help Ukraine either is it?

Looks like covid is back in the headlines

“Covid has not gone away, as hospital admissions in elderly increase”

I don’t know about any of you, but I don’t think during a pandemic is a great time to get involved in a war ? Imagine if it started spreading again and the military were all down with it.