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Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

999 replies

ScatteredMama82 · 09/03/2022 15:43

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

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9
MarshaBradyo · 10/03/2022 07:50

@Jisforjelly

Thankfully most people I know in real life don’t want to get involved in this, although they’re repulsed by what’s happening. They’d rather help in other ways. Even by housing a refugee family.

Why don’t those of you who are feeling so incensed by it all do something like that?

Agree I hope this is set up soon and people can focus their energy on really helping someone
MarshaBradyo · 10/03/2022 07:51

Actually there are charities that organise it iirc

I’ve noticed on other threads people looking into it

WeAreTheHeroes · 10/03/2022 07:52

The Covid vaccination rates in Ukraine pre-war were 39%. They're not much better in the countries Ukrainians are fleeing to, apart from Hungary. With all those people packed together on trains and in queues there's the potential for a huge rise in cases in Eastern Europe.

Roussette · 10/03/2022 07:52

Why don’t those of you who are feeling so incensed by it all do something like that?

Well... maybe if the Government actually got its act together and released details of their sponsorship scheme talked about over a week ago... people would.

As it is... details are supposed to be this week. It's Friday tomorrow. The last time anything was updated on this was Monday.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 10/03/2022 07:53

@reqding

What happened to the 40 mile long convoy of tanks from a week or so ago? Where are the soldiers and how do they eat/drink/fuel up having been gone so long?

I was anticipating something big to come from this as the news and images showed them entering Ukraine but I'm not sure what has happened since.

The Ukrainians have taken out the front of the convoy so they can't move forward and the back so they can't retreat and find another route. So now they're just stuck.
WeAreTheHeroes · 10/03/2022 07:54

I've emailed my MP. We could take in refugees, but we don't live in a city. I will look into though as the numbers of those displaced are increasing all the time.

MarshaBradyo · 10/03/2022 07:55

@Roussette

Why don’t those of you who are feeling so incensed by it all do something like that?

Well... maybe if the Government actually got its act together and released details of their sponsorship scheme talked about over a week ago... people would.

As it is... details are supposed to be this week. It's Friday tomorrow. The last time anything was updated on this was Monday.

Refugees at Home is another place to look at
1dayatatime · 10/03/2022 07:55

@MarshaBradyo

"Agree. We might have opinions on here but tg it’s people with more expertise and information making hard decisions.

I hear Truss likened it to 9/11 and is speaking today in US. Not sure what her general line is when she says get tougher. I’m glad US is in NATO and generally takes lead"

++++

I not sure I would put Liz Truss in the category of "more expertise and information making hard decisions " after her comment encouraging Britons to join the fight that was later reversed.

MarshaBradyo · 10/03/2022 07:58

[quote 1dayatatime]@MarshaBradyo

"Agree. We might have opinions on here but tg it’s people with more expertise and information making hard decisions.

I hear Truss likened it to 9/11 and is speaking today in US. Not sure what her general line is when she says get tougher. I’m glad US is in NATO and generally takes lead"

++++

I not sure I would put Liz Truss in the category of "more expertise and information making hard decisions " after her comment encouraging Britons to join the fight that was later reversed.[/quote]
Tbh I was t thinking of Truss when I wrote it but she sounds more aligned to those asking for more going by her comments

But I’m waiting to hear what tougher stance means

shreddednips · 10/03/2022 08:01

@nonono1

I believe Putin wants us, the general population, to be so repelled we scream at our governments not to get further involved

@CrunchyCarrot I personally think it’s the exact opposite. The worse the atrocities he commits, the more public opinion in the west is likely to turn towards getting involved. It feels like he’s poking us harder and harder until we retaliate.

I'm not sure I agree, there's no possible benefit to Russia in NATO getting involved. Russia already has its hands full with the invasion, a conflict with NATO would be unwinnable. Putin wants power and a big empire to rule over with lots of resources and impressive buildings to crow over. There's no reason to create a pretext for a conflict with NATO because it would be world-ending. There wouldn't be anyone left to care if he was justified in making the first move. If he wanted to start a conflict with NATO, he could have done so right away. So I agree with carrots on this one.

I think it's more likely that he's upping the ante to give him more leverage at the peace talks today, which is heinous.

I also think there could be an element of trying to 'show NATO up'. I really don't think he wants to start an all-out conflict, but I think he does want to undermine public faith in NATO's strength because he would rather the alliance didn't exist. Trump made noises about America leaving NATO (I think) which would have been a good thing for Putin's imperialistic ambitions, so it works in his favour for people in NATO countries to start thinking 'look how weak NATO is, what it tolerates, what's the point in it.' Playing the long game, I wonder if he thinks it would increase the likelihood of someone like Trump being re-elected and taking America out of NATO.

As far as I know, Putin looks down on western cultures as being decadent. It may be that he assumes the public will call for NATO to back off to avoid a war that will put them in danger. It would be handy for Putin for people in NATO countries to stop supporting sanctions to avoid the risk of escalation. Judging by this thread, he's absolutely miscalculated the mindset of the western public.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 10/03/2022 08:03

@TheWayTheLightFalls

I'm not convinced at all he would dare try and take another country.

I think he would (speaking as a spectator- I have no more insight than the next person). But that Putin, thanks mainly to a poorly equipped and demoralised army owing to cronyism and corruption, is having his ambitions curtailed. Hoisted by his own you know what. But sadly their chemical (let alone nuclear) warfare capabilities seem to be in a better state. Unless they’ve also been raided and the proceeds are currently floating off the coast of Belize, I’ve no idea. There’s endemic corruption in Russia, which works in our favour imo.

DH is a professor in the nuclear sector and he told me that Russia's nuclear capability isn't believed to be what people think it is. He says the belief within the nuclear community is that at least two thirds of his arsenal are obsolete and more like to blow up in his hands than fire.
1dayatatime · 10/03/2022 08:05

[quote Jisforjelly]@1dayatatime

I’ll talk the first option, I don’t want to die in a nuclear conflict.
Surely most people would?! It’s not going to help Ukraine either is it?[/quote]
A logical self preservation choice for you and your family but this would result in Ukrainians dying and suffering.

Sky News has a great article:

news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-war-millions-could-die-if-the-world-does-not-act-now-to-stop-the-bombing-president-zelenskyy-tells-sky-news-12561844

Where President Zelenskyy said;

"Asked about Western concerns around the potential of a no-fly zone escalating the conflict and bringing about a direct confrontation with Russia, making it worse, he said: "Worse for whom? For our families? No... For them..? Who knows? Nobody knows. But we know that exactly that now is very bad. And in future it will be too late"

Where effectively his position is who knows if there would be a wider NATO or nuclear conflict (ie a lower probability) but we do know people are dying and suffering in Ukraine now (a higher probability).

TheWayTheLightFalls · 10/03/2022 08:08

That’s really interesting bring, thank you.

notimagain · 10/03/2022 08:09

He says the belief within the nuclear community is that at least two thirds of his arsenal are obsolete and more like to blow up in his hands than fire.

Unfortunately the reality is they have plenty of overkill

They have roughly 6000 warheads of various types according to open sources.

Ijsbear · 10/03/2022 08:10

@MarshaBradyo You asked a few pages back what I want to see happen. (I was off to bed sorry)

I am very glad I'm not having to make the decisions!

Most of all I'd need more information. All I know is from the BBC, a few other sources and the posts and links on these threads.

On the basis of the little info I have - trying to think it out - Putin will never stop plotting, and Putin will escalate. I think the unquestioned assumption that we are safe is not as certain as it was. If Putin takes the Ukraine then he will try to extend his influence elsewhere, more subtly at first (trying to get NATO to fall apart) and then perhaps by open warfare again. If he does not manage to take the Ukraine, he will leave it a wasteland. That's going to terrify other nations so that when he goes to war they will be more likely to knuckle under.

I do wonder if the best thing is to allow relief planes escorted by fighter pilots in. It is directly doing what he warned us not to, but without being actively aggressive we would be delivering relief and at the same time standing up to him.

In a way if we did that, it would escalate things but at that point, someone like China might take a more active role in trying to force Putin to the table. But it would mean a more active-for-the-West war.

I don't think anyone is going to come out of this unscathed. It could mean battlefield nukes.

Frankly I'd also like to see Merkel involved at the very top level of decision making, at least for her perspective. I know she was not perfect and made some iffy decisions at home but she was an excellent stabilizing force on the world stage.

But I am not in charge and Im very glad I'm not. I'm with @TheSillyMastiff's post at Wed 09-Mar-22 23:12:00.

RedToothBrush · 10/03/2022 08:13

@Gingerwarthog

The Institute for the study of war (US think tank) has stated that they believe that the Russian forces are slowly building up to an attack of Kyiv in the next 24 to 96 hours. (That was on the 8th March.) Don't know if that is likely to be chemical but the fact they are 'preparing the stage' with their false claims that the US are developing biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine is a worrying developing. As the cathedrals and buildings in Kyiv have religious and historical significance for the Russian people and Orthodox Church deploying those weapons might be their horrific way of preserving those while massacring civilians.
Its now the 10th March.

That suggests that there is two days of that estimate left.

There are talks today.

They are playing psyops. Nasty ones.

They want a swift conclusion. If they don't get that they will raise Kyiv and do as much harm to the civilian population as possible, because they think they can get away with it. Mariupol is being held hostage. They will do a Stalingrad to it.

Zelensky has said he and his country will fight to the death. They are testing that resolve. Zelensky, unsurprisingly, is looking tired and like he is struggling more than he wants to let on. He's jewish and he's educated, he understands all to well the concept of genocide.

This is all about trying to break the will of Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. And demonstrate the imputance of the West.

The talks today are using the civilians against Zelensky as a bargaining chip. They are saying look what we are doing, this is what we will do and if you don't surrender, it is on your head.

So today will be more of the same, but they won’t start on Kyiv until the conclusion of them. The threat is implicit. This is Kyivs last chance and we won't hold back because we don't believe in human rights.

Human rights and treaties do not mean anything once you pass a certain point in some societies. There just isn't an understanding or respect for them. There is no further fear of consequences. Russia has no use for them. They think they are a weakness to be exploited.

I think a few people need to wrap their heads around this, because the Western public are staggeringly naive to a point that is actually dangerous in its own right.

The American government, the British government know it. The Baltic government s know it. The Polish government knows it. Beyond that im not 100% convinced. I think the French have pretty much been told.

The Americans are playing it cool and standing back because they don't want to do anything which will resonate with the Russian people in terms of what Putin is saying because if they do the fear is that will galvanise his support. Hence no to polish jets. (its also why they aren't too worried about other weapons, its the who and the fanfare not the weapons themselves.)

They instead are hoping a complete shutdown of Russian economy will spark something and make it difficult for him to do more. Its a long shot, i fear but theyve calculated its the best.

Zelensky's speeches are designed to be an epitaph to history btw. Just in case. Thats what we watched. He wants the world to know and remember.

I do think we will wake up one day and he will be dead. Because its essential to Russian psyops at this point.

I do think all this stuff about 'not my war' is idiocy. I am very aware we cannot do anything yet because the penny hasn't dropped about the extent of what Putin is prepared to do and how much of a threat he is. The will come a point where he will cross a line though I suspect and the radicalisation of Russians means the threat will last a generation if there isn't total collapse in some way. And thats not just economic collapse.

The horror of whats about to happen, is something which is incomprehensible.

But i dont think it will be avoided.

Ijsbear · 10/03/2022 08:13

About the Internet. If Putin is bringing his Russian intranet into play on Friday and cutting off from the world, I do sincerely hope we have ways of keeping a backbone Net running via satellite because presumably he'd be able to cut the deep sea cables without his own country's net going down? Although boy would that piss the Chinese off, I imagine.

Jisforjelly · 10/03/2022 08:17

@1dayatatime bit getting involved could also lead to millions being killed? If not billions. Sorry but I personally don’t want to take that risk.

Ijsbear · 10/03/2022 08:21

If relief drops did happen in Mariupol, they'd have to be multiple small drops rather than 3-4 big dumps. If they were big dumps then Russia would be able to target them and to get a lot of casualties all at once, plus many small dumps mean less far for beseiged people to travel in the open.

notimagain · 10/03/2022 08:22

@RedToothBrush

Human rights and treaties do not mean anything once you pass a certain point in some societies. There just isn't an understanding or respect for them. There is no further fear of consequences. Russia has no use for them. They think they are a weakness to be exploited. I think a few people need to wrap their heads around this, because the Western public are staggeringly naive to a point that is actually dangerous in its own right.

You are probably not far off the truth there.

I still think some people feel reporting Putin to the authorities (who they?) or bringing in the world police (who they??) will fix this.

When dealing with people like Putin maybe people need to be mindful of this quote, variously attributed:

“People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men” (and these days no doubt women) “stand ready to do violence on their behalf.”

shreddednips · 10/03/2022 08:22

@notimagain

He says the belief within the nuclear community is that at least two thirds of his arsenal are obsolete and more like to blow up in his hands than fire.

Unfortunately the reality is they have plenty of overkill

They have roughly 6000 warheads of various types according to open sources.

I've also heard this idea that Russia's nuclear arsenal isn't all it's cracked up to be, and I had idly wondered whether- if the money intended to maintain conventional weapons has been creamed off, could the same be true of the nuclear weapons? I have no idea. Russia does have around 6,000 warheads, but an awful lot of them are reserve weapons, which means that they're not set up and ready to use.

I'm just a spectator and wouldn't like to rely on this speculation being true. Even if it was, I wonder if Putin would actually be aware of it because heads would roll I imagine. Hypothetically though, it would be an interesting development!

RedToothBrush · 10/03/2022 08:23

@Ijsbear

If relief drops did happen in Mariupol, they'd have to be multiple small drops rather than 3-4 big dumps. If they were big dumps then Russia would be able to target them and to get a lot of casualties all at once, plus many small dumps mean less far for beseiged people to travel in the open.
Drops in Mariupol will be target practice for Russians. Just saying.
notimagain · 10/03/2022 08:24

@Ijsbear

If relief drops did happen in Mariupol, they'd have to be multiple small drops rather than 3-4 big dumps. If they were big dumps then Russia would be able to target them and to get a lot of casualties all at once, plus many small dumps mean less far for beseiged people to travel in the open.
I have to ask but are you assuming air drops and if so by what?
sirfredfredgeorge · 10/03/2022 08:31

Since then there have been advances in the range and types of chemicals that have the right characteristics to be delivered by a missile, plus of course in the types of missiles and devices that can deliver the chemicals to the battlefield

but not really, since chemical weapons have always been a failure on the battlefield, they simply don't work against soldiers - a gas mask and a hazmat suit defeats almost all use in a way in which a normal explosion doesn't. They're also expensive, they degrade way more than normal explosives so you have to keep building new stocks.

The countries banned them, not because they're amoral, but because they don't work, so there's no problem banning them, land mines are just as amoral, but the countries keep those (or stay in defence alliances with countries which keep them)

Obviously as a fear weapon, and against unarmed people they're a bit more effective, but still less effective than conventional explosives, remember the Skripal's survived an individual targeted attack, remote delivery of large volumes is a huge waste, the only person who died in Salisbury sprayed it themselves directly onto their skin in large volumes.

RedToothBrush · 10/03/2022 08:33

I talked to DH last night about the discrepancy between the US and European KIA figures. He said 'for what reason would the Americans deliberately understate Russian deaths?'

Its a good question.

Answer he suggested was to flatter / not embarass the Russians to reduce the need for them to save face and escalate.

Its escalating anyway, but what the US says perhaps is more important on this front.

I suggested it was because they are preparing the public for the days ahead because there's been a little too much belief that Ukraine can actually win and in the long term that will hit Western psyche harder (the despair element to moral). Especially if this is long or drawn out.

The discrepancy between what the US and Europe are saying is something to watch for. I think its revealing.

I don't believe the American figures. Its definitely higher. How high and at what cost to Ukrainian forces is more of my concern than what the Russian figures actually are.

The higher the Russian figures are, the more desperate and barbaric they will be unfortunately.

None of this is good.

This is Bosnia with no means to mitigate and with bigger guns.