Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

[ScatteredMama82]

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

@RedToothBrush

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧**@DefenceHQ** · Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 09 March 2022

From what I know, by who I know, who have seen what the PMC's have done/are capable of.

This is grave, and horrific if they are being deployed. I'd fear them more than a 4minute warning of a nuke being dropped on my head.

Russia. Mercenaries.

newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-fallen-mercenaries-in-russias-dark-army/
Old article about Wagner.

It talks about who they recruit, and why.

Watching Peston on ITV, just now and in answer to the question:
'Do you think, given the invasion is not going to plan, Putin is dangerous and will 'lash out'?
Anti corruption campaigner and former investor in Russia Bill Browder replied:
"I'm certain he will, I've spent 10 years in a microcosm type of fight with him and he always escalates, he has no reverse gear. He's not a man who has any capacity to back down, he lives in a sort of prison yard psychology which is - 'show absolutely no weakness escalate, escalate, escalate'. And it doesn't really matter what happens, he escalates even if you don't fight back, but the last thing you want to do is not fight back with a guy like this because he will absolutely obliterate his enemies."

Doesn't sound like a man who will compromise at the negotiating table to me.

Re soldiers not wanting to fight if not paid, that’s not a consideration. They’ve already been shooting their own for not fighting or for helping civilians.

Those of you who are saying let Ukraine go. Where do you draw the line? After Ukraine he will go home and rebuild his economy and his army and develop better chemical weapons and nuclear weapons and in a year or two he’ll take another country. And again you’ll say it’s not our country we can’t get involved until all the countries are gone? So we let him carry on like we let hitter carry on?

So much for “lest we forget”. So much for “never again” . He has been at this for 20 years. Every time nato has let him carry on. So we let the 38 million people left in Ukraine die, then we met Moldova and Latvia and all the other non nato countries die.

I love our great British country, we don’t let refugees in, we whine about gas costing more while we watch people fleeing bombs and say oh dear it’s horrible but we won’t risk us! I shouldn’t be surprised, we’ve demonised and divided and conquered everyone who is “other” be they immigrants or single mothers or unemployed or even fire men and nurses and doctors if the daily Mail or sun tells us they’re who we pick on this week.

What’s that poem.. first he came for ……..

Mattia Nelles@mattia_n
Today, I attended an emergency online conference of Ukrainian mayors from Mariupol, Kharkiv, Trostianets (Sumy region), Merefa (Kharkiv region), and Zhytomyr organized by the Ministry for Regional Development. What the mayors reported raises alarms on many different levels. A small

Sergej Orlov, deputy mayor of Mariupol, said that we witness is a "medieval siege" and he emphasized that the humanitarian situation is getting worse every day. For several days, the city is cut-off and there is no heating, water, gas, or proper food and medicine supply. /1

Citizens of Mariupol are hungry and use any wood they find to cook and to melt snow to drink. 3000 babies are deprived of food and will soon need medical attention. About 300,000 citizens remain trapped in the middle of this brutal siege. /2

The city is shelled from all directions and by all sorts of weaponry. The city's civilian infrastructure was deliberately targeted, hospitals were hit and destroyed. There are at least 1200 civilian casualties that the city knows of. Many more are expected beneath the rubble. /3

The deputy mayor stressed that for several days the attempts to open corridors out of Mariupol failed because the Russians either shelled the meeting place, mined the routes, or refused to let evacuation buses in or out of the city. Private cars trying to leave were shot at. /4

Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv, also spoke of war crimes committed by the Russian forces, which deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure and now use heavy weaponry to sow terror. Over 400 multi-story residential buildings were destroyed. /5

The shelling from the air and by artillery remains a big problem for Kharkiv. Despite a huge risk for their lives, the city's many workers continue their duties to keep utility companies going and public transport running- even the trash is collected. /6

Because of the ongoing shelling, thousands of people continue to flee Kharkiv every day. Most of them use the few trains which leave the city. But hundreds of thousands remain in Ukraine's second-largest city. The mayor said that fuel supplies are running low. /7

Yuri Bova, the mayor of Trostianets south of Sumy reported that his city is surrounded. Occupants have raided shops and even make burials impossible in the city. Citizens cannot leave and no humanitarian supply is reaching the city. /8

The mayor of the small town of Merefa in the Kharkiv region told that his city was severely shelled even though there is not even any army present in the city. Power supplies have collapsed but the city is working to restore them. /9

Serhiy Sukhmolyn, the mayor of the central Ukrainian city Zhytomyr, said that the city has turned into a fortress, expecting the worst. It was shelled by air and by cruise missiles. Houses, schools, kindergartens, a maternity ward, and an oil depot were hit and destroyed. /10

All utilities are working in Zhytomyr and aid and most other crucial supplies are still arriving. But the feeling in the city is one of fear not knowing whether new strikes might hit the city. /end

Jen Psaki @presssec
We took note of Russia’s false claims about alleged U.S. biological weapons labs and chemical weapons development in Ukraine. We’ve also seen Chinese officials echo these conspiracy theories.

This is preposterous. It’s the kind of disinformation operation we’ve seen repeatedly from the Russians over the years in Ukraine and in other countries, which have been debunked, and an example of the types of false pretexts we have been warning the Russians would invent.

The United States is in full compliance with its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention and does not develop or possess such weapons anywhere.

It’s Russia that has a long and well-documented track record of using chemical weapons, including in attempted assassinations and poisoning of Putin’s political enemies like Alexey Navalny.

It’s Russia that continues to support the Assad regime in Syria, which has repeatedly used chemical weapons. It’s Russia that has long maintained a biological weapons program in violation of international law.

Also, Russia has a track record of accusing the West of the very violations that Russia itself is perpetrating. In December, Russia falsely accused the U.S. of deploying contractors with chemical weapons in Ukraine.

This is all an obvious ploy by Russia to try to try to justify its further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attack on Ukraine.

Now that Russia has made these false claims, and China has seemingly endorsed this propaganda, we should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them. It’s a clear pattern.

There is absolutely no need for Russian troops to try to take Mariupol at this point. They can more than achieve their goal by staying put.

They do not have the capacity to surround Kyiv. But chemical weapons would work nicely for them.

I fear the hospital today is small fry in the scheme of whats yet to come.

The Russians are now doing Sun Tzu well after failing to adhere to its basic principles. Sadly Sun Tzu's Art of War doesn't have a section on Human Rights having been written in the 5th/6th Century...

5th/6th century BC sorry

@Memememememwmwm I'm starting to agree . To begin with I was terrified of involvement , if what Truss said etc. but this is starting to remind me of my ex. I didn't leave his violence for years and years as I was terrified if I did he would hurt our daughter. So I appeased but nothing ever stopped him. Appeasement doesn't work and now we hear Putin is planning to use chemical weapons? Are we really going to stand by and let this happen?

At least we should stop oil imports now and take that hit . That's the only economic pressure that will really affect Putin.

With the fake news on Russian troops discovering Ukrainian plans for biological weaywe can already start to see Putin laying the grounds or story justifying for using chemical weapons. Plus if Russian troops enter Kyiv then their casualties will really go up, chemical weapons have the advantage of killing people but not destroying the city.

This is my fear too. Seems very clearly foreshadowed.

The issue I'm about to mention seems to have quietened down (sadly?) but I'm interested in the approach taken because I don't understand it. The Polish MiGs that were/weren't/were/weren't going to go to Ukraine via the US to be replaced (or not) by US planes - I can understand all the cross-border maneuverings (I used to work in aircraft finance, where we did transfers of ownership while the planes were literally in midair over the Atlantic) but I don't understand why it was all done so publicly.

As is, hand over your planes or don't, but what's the advantage in issuing official statements about it? Surely better to quietly get on with agreeing whatever action with your counterparty rather than publicising an act which may (significantly) aggravate the enemy? Is it to appeal to your own population? Inevitable that the other side would know, so may as well publicise? Some other thing? It's been on my mind for days.

Also interested in China and its relationship with Russia. How much of it is ideological, how much financial? If Russian buying power is reduced to nearly zero, what's in it for China to be closely allied? There are historic ties because of communism but what is the relationship based on now?

Also agree that he will escalate anyway. That's what he does. See - planning to use chemical weapons while entire world is sanctioning him and his troops are stuck not advancing

@RedToothBrush @TheWayTheLightFalls
This is my fear too. Chemical weapon use in Kyiv, preserving the historic buildings etc but killing the population.

If the journos pull out then we know it's coming I think ?

.

The Institute for the study of war (US think tank) has stated that they believe that the Russian forces are slowly building up to an attack of Kyiv in the next 24 to 96 hours. (That was on the 8th March.)
Don't know if that is likely to be chemical but the fact they are 'preparing the stage' with their false claims that the US are developing biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine is a worrying developing.
As the cathedrals and buildings in Kyiv have religious and historical significance for the Russian people and Orthodox Church deploying those weapons might be their horrific way of preserving those while massacring civilians.

@Memememememwmwm

Re soldiers not wanting to fight if not paid, that’s not a consideration. They’ve already been shooting their own for not fighting or for helping civilians.

Those of you who are saying let Ukraine go. Where do you draw the line? After Ukraine he will go home and rebuild his economy and his army and develop better chemical weapons and nuclear weapons and in a year or two he’ll take another country. And again you’ll say it’s not our country we can’t get involved until all the countries are gone? So we let him carry on like we let hitter carry on?

So much for “lest we forget”. So much for “never again” . He has been at this for 20 years. Every time nato has let him carry on. So we let the 38 million people left in Ukraine die, then we met Moldova and Latvia and all the other non nato countries die.

I love our great British country, we don’t let refugees in, we whine about gas costing more while we watch people fleeing bombs and say oh dear it’s horrible but we won’t risk us! I shouldn’t be surprised, we’ve demonised and divided and conquered everyone who is “other” be they immigrants or single mothers or unemployed or even fire men and nurses and doctors if the daily Mail or sun tells us they’re who we pick on this week.

What’s that poem.. first he came for ……..

We’re losing clear heads on the thread but hopefully decision makers are calculating risks.

Not just in U.K. but US and elsewhere.

Appeasement doesn't work - I wrote this to my Tory MP. I said it didn’t work for Chamberlain & Hitler & it’s not going to work here. I’ve not had a reply yet. Putin isn’t going to stop. I said that as well. He’s a bully.

@stillherenow

If the journos pull out then we know it's coming I think ?

Any news of this just yet?

Also please excuse my ignorance but what exactly is a chemical weapon?

@Memememememwmwm

I so agree with your post. You cannot appease a psychopathic man like Putin by giving him what he wants. Because that empowers him for next time. And there will be a next time

I don’t get why people think NATO and the West will get involved when they won’t even send the MIG fighter jets.

It's easy to say we can help by providing aid. What about Mariupol? Aid is not getting there. And they can't get out because of shelling. They are having to melt snow for water. Many people will be dying there soon if things don't change. I've lost count of how many days it's been. What can be done for Mariupol?

How can people be certain there will be a next time but also not worry about nuclear escalation if NATO intervenes?

Where does that level of certainty come from

What happened to the 40 mile long convoy of tanks from a week or so ago? Where are the soldiers and how do they eat/drink/fuel up having been gone so long?

I was anticipating something big to come from this as the news and images showed them entering Ukraine but I'm not sure what has happened since.

@RedToothBrush

Mattia Nelles@mattia_n Today, I attended an emergency online conference of Ukrainian mayors from Mariupol, Kharkiv, Trostianets (Sumy region), Merefa (Kharkiv region), and Zhytomyr organized by the Ministry for Regional Development. What the mayors reported raises alarms on many different levels. A small

Sergej Orlov, deputy mayor of Mariupol, said that we witness is a "medieval siege" and he emphasized that the humanitarian situation is getting worse every day. For several days, the city is cut-off and there is no heating, water, gas, or proper food and medicine supply. /1

Citizens of Mariupol are hungry and use any wood they find to cook and to melt snow to drink. 3000 babies are deprived of food and will soon need medical attention. About 300,000 citizens remain trapped in the middle of this brutal siege. /2

The city is shelled from all directions and by all sorts of weaponry. The city's civilian infrastructure was deliberately targeted, hospitals were hit and destroyed. There are at least 1200 civilian casualties that the city knows of. Many more are expected beneath the rubble. /3

The deputy mayor stressed that for several days the attempts to open corridors out of Mariupol failed because the Russians either shelled the meeting place, mined the routes, or refused to let evacuation buses in or out of the city. Private cars trying to leave were shot at. /4

Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv, also spoke of war crimes committed by the Russian forces, which deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure and now use heavy weaponry to sow terror. Over 400 multi-story residential buildings were destroyed. /5

The shelling from the air and by artillery remains a big problem for Kharkiv. Despite a huge risk for their lives, the city's many workers continue their duties to keep utility companies going and public transport running- even the trash is collected. /6

Because of the ongoing shelling, thousands of people continue to flee Kharkiv every day. Most of them use the few trains which leave the city. But hundreds of thousands remain in Ukraine's second-largest city. The mayor said that fuel supplies are running low. /7

Yuri Bova, the mayor of Trostianets south of Sumy reported that his city is surrounded. Occupants have raided shops and even make burials impossible in the city. Citizens cannot leave and no humanitarian supply is reaching the city. /8

The mayor of the small town of Merefa in the Kharkiv region told that his city was severely shelled even though there is not even any army present in the city. Power supplies have collapsed but the city is working to restore them. /9

Serhiy Sukhmolyn, the mayor of the central Ukrainian city Zhytomyr, said that the city has turned into a fortress, expecting the worst. It was shelled by air and by cruise missiles. Houses, schools, kindergartens, a maternity ward, and an oil depot were hit and destroyed. /10

All utilities are working in Zhytomyr and aid and most other crucial supplies are still arriving. But the feeling in the city is one of fear not knowing whether new strikes might hit the city. /end

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[quote Roussette]@Memememememwmwm

I so agree with your post. You cannot appease a psychopathic man like Putin by giving him what he wants. Because that empowers him for next time. And there will be a next time[/quote]

So how do you reason with the unreasonable?

I just cannot see a way out?