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Original poster

Ukraine invasion discussion thread part 11

999 replies

ScatteredMama82 · 09/03/2022 15:43

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4499310-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-10?pg=40

OP posts:
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9
ParsleySageRosemary · 09/03/2022 22:09

if Russia invaded anouther EU country, then I imagine all the other EU countries would have to retaliate in the same way Nato countries would.

They would, according to that mutual defence clause. I wonder if a solely European war, sans US, would keep nuclear weapons out of it.

workisnotawolf, that assessment is quite chilling. Rivals are one thing, China's preference for self-reliant solitude was another, but a country or a person that wants others not to exist is not one that can be reasoned with.

FacebookPhotos · 09/03/2022 22:10

Proximity doesn't come it to it. Just club membership.

Why should proximity matter more than international treaties?

BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation · 09/03/2022 22:10

I was reading something a couple of days ago that said the US are approaching Venezuela to buy their oil.

mavisgreen · 09/03/2022 22:12

@ClaudineClare

What about Ireland? It's not a NATO country but it shares a land border with the UK

Could he get as far as Ireland without straying into a NATO country?

Not really sure he'd have much interest in Ireland really. It wasn't originally a soviet bloc country. I just think it's easy to say "oh if it was a NATO country or an EU country, then definitely!" what's the difference really between Ukrainian lives or Polish lives or Irish lives? NATO membership? Really that's what we're placing value on?
mavisgreen · 09/03/2022 22:13

@FacebookPhotos

Proximity doesn't come it to it. Just club membership.

Why should proximity matter more than international treaties?

It shouldn't at all.
FacebookPhotos · 09/03/2022 22:14

I was reading something a couple of days ago that said the US are approaching Venezuela to buy their oil.

Me too. It makes sense for Venezuela to decide that now is a good time to try for rehabilitating the relationship. Realistically, the effects of the sanctions we’ve imposed on Russia are going to be very difficult indeed, and so the US (and others) are likely to be more open to concessions now than they have been in a long time. The release of prisoners is a sensible, measured show of good faith.

Papertyger · 09/03/2022 22:14

Just seeing Tony Blinken looking at Liz Truss at the podium in the states.Blush

Wrongkindofovercoat · 09/03/2022 22:15

It seems to me that China is more keen on appeasing Putin than courting the West

You know all those threads where everyone declares the OP has a DH problem rather than a MIL/SIL etc problem ? That's what China is facing with Putin, I don't know what the Chinese is for ODFOD but I bet they are close.

TiddyTidTwo · 09/03/2022 22:18

Innocent civilians, children are not worth less because their government isn't a member of NATO. Putin is playing nato like a fiddle

notimagain · 09/03/2022 22:19

@ClaudineClare

Re Ireland..

Yes, Poutin’s forces could reach Ireland and avoid overflight of NATO countries.

Elements of the Russian Air Force/ naval aviation used to, probably still do, fly out of bases on the Kola Pensinular and start off heading north, then hang a left around the top of Norway and from there trundle south westwards into the Atlantic via the Scotland/Iceland or the Iceland/Greenland gaps.

Whether they would actually want to do that with a view to taking on Ireland????

ClaudineClare · 09/03/2022 22:22

[quote notimagain]@ClaudineClare

Re Ireland..

Yes, Poutin’s forces could reach Ireland and avoid overflight of NATO countries.

Elements of the Russian Air Force/ naval aviation used to, probably still do, fly out of bases on the Kola Pensinular and start off heading north, then hang a left around the top of Norway and from there trundle south westwards into the Atlantic via the Scotland/Iceland or the Iceland/Greenland gaps.

Whether they would actually want to do that with a view to taking on Ireland????[/quote]
That is fascinating, thanks. I very much doubt he wants to take Ireland, though!

TiddyTidTwo · 09/03/2022 22:23

I do not believe for a second the UK would allow that

RedToothBrush · 09/03/2022 22:25

@Ijsbear

Well we do know radiation exists within Chernobyl, while no one knows about aliens! :D

Panicking about WW3 is unhelpful and a waste of time and energy.

Putin is not after self-destruction, he's probably after a Soviet state that's self-contained and includes the old Eastern Block countries. And general causing strife and trouble-making because that's what he gets off on.

He's getting closer to China but the Chinese's greatest trade is still with the West. Despite the deterioration in relations between China and the West under Trump (who may well have been influenced, shall we say, by Russian money), China is still not going to lightly throw out that trade partnership.

Nothing, unfortunately, is going to stop the Ukrainians suffering because Putin's form of going to war deliberately targets civilians and vulnerable people in order to break the invaded country's spirit. He is a master of pyschological warfare with the tools of deception, fear and desperation.

Believing his promises is futile because he has no value for them. The only value, as far as he is concerned, is in how far he can get other people to believe him so that he can carry right on with what he's doing.

Whatever form of peace is achieved sooner or later he will keep on trying to cause trouble. I think the only thing that will stop him is by standing up to him and being aware of what he's doing by looking at his actions rather than his words. Presenting a united front towards him and no softness, no give because he sees softness as a weakness and good faith as something to be used to further his ends.

Panic is pointless and actually plays more into his hands than keeping calm.

Thank fuck.

A sane post.

100% that last line.

Putin has to turn up the volume. His citizens are about to get fucked. He needs a fall guy. But he also can not take on more cos he's got enough on his plate. Putin does not want to die yet. He wants to keep power. Therefore he will only use nukes if he sees strategic value - or he thinks NATO won't intervene - or because he's been nuked. So he's not going to nuke us (at least any time soon).

Putin is rational, not crazy. It may seem crazy, but its not. He has badly miscalculated.

He's been reverse ferreting today with his people. This is not the action of someone about to nuke the rest of the world - he wants power and he wants the continued support of his people.

In terms of WWIII, its not necessarily going to play out on battlefields. Such is hybrid warfare...

As for sitting winding yourself up about China, it shows a comprehensive lack of understanding of geopolitics.

Right now lots of players are simply watching how its going to play out. China is one. China is unsettled because they don't like uncertainity. Its destablising. They can use it too their advantage if mild, but if its too destablising its not in their interests. Why? Its not a coincedence that the Tiananmen Square Massacre was in 1989. The previous few months in Europe had been a period of massive civil unrest in East Europe and there is a known ripple effect when these things happen (see Arab Spring, Rise of Popularist Nationalist in the last decade)

China will not want things to esculate significantly further.

Its closeness to Russia is also over stated. Its more of convenience rather than active positive choice.

Wrongkindofovercoat · 09/03/2022 22:27

Innocent civilians, children are not worth less because their government isn't a member of NATO. Putin is playing nato like a fiddle

I think he might be missing a string ? It has taken his forces nearly a fortnight to make very small inroads into Ukraine, if you remove the areas he already held prior to the invasion.
To do this he has had to remove all independent media sources from his country, massively reduce internet access, forced conscripts into war zones they are not prepared for, and seen his population have to endure sanctions that are causing serious hardship.

TiddyTidTwo · 09/03/2022 22:28

Oh he definitely is! He needs to realise it and fast

MarshaBradyo · 09/03/2022 22:31

@Ijsbear

Well we do know radiation exists within Chernobyl, while no one knows about aliens! :D

Panicking about WW3 is unhelpful and a waste of time and energy.

Putin is not after self-destruction, he's probably after a Soviet state that's self-contained and includes the old Eastern Block countries. And general causing strife and trouble-making because that's what he gets off on.

He's getting closer to China but the Chinese's greatest trade is still with the West. Despite the deterioration in relations between China and the West under Trump (who may well have been influenced, shall we say, by Russian money), China is still not going to lightly throw out that trade partnership.

Nothing, unfortunately, is going to stop the Ukrainians suffering because Putin's form of going to war deliberately targets civilians and vulnerable people in order to break the invaded country's spirit. He is a master of pyschological warfare with the tools of deception, fear and desperation.

Believing his promises is futile because he has no value for them. The only value, as far as he is concerned, is in how far he can get other people to believe him so that he can carry right on with what he's doing.

Whatever form of peace is achieved sooner or later he will keep on trying to cause trouble. I think the only thing that will stop him is by standing up to him and being aware of what he's doing by looking at his actions rather than his words. Presenting a united front towards him and no softness, no give because he sees softness as a weakness and good faith as something to be used to further his ends.

Panic is pointless and actually plays more into his hands than keeping calm.

What steps do you want to see happen?
notimagain · 09/03/2022 22:37

@ClaudineClare

(Staying off thread for a moment).

That is fascinating, thanks. I very much doubt he wants to take Ireland, though!

Something seems to have rattled a few politicians though…for the first time I can recall in watching this sort of issue there’s actually been vaguely serious discussion about the Defence Forces buying modern’ish jet fighters..one of several recent reports here:

www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40803708.html

shreddednips · 09/03/2022 22:37

I can understand why so many posters are feeling that it's time for NATO to step in, today's attack on the maternity hospital was an act so completely barbaric that it defies belief. However, the gamble is that we don't know what Russia's response would be to such action. I don't think that it's selfish at all to say that WW3 must be averted- it's not a matter of one child mattering more than another. Many Ukrainian children have fled to seek refuge in NATO countries, and they deserve to be safe in them.

Then that poses the question is war inevitable in any event, will Putin eventually invade another country and force NATO's hand. I suspect that he may eventually do so if he had the resources to do it, but war is expensive. I can't see how he can finance endless assaults on other nations as the Russian economy plummets.

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning of Putin trying to provoke a war with NATO. There would be no reason to justify it- there would be no one left to justify it to. It wouldn't matter what anyone's opinion would be of who was 'right', so if he wanted to do that, he would have done it.

grannysbay · 09/03/2022 22:38

I wonder whether anyone is considering the future of the Security Council in light of this. I can see the single country veto going. And not before time.

Itsnotover · 09/03/2022 22:44

Has anyone else heard this? So upsetting.

sirfredfredgeorge · 09/03/2022 22:45

As a pp said if he wanted this there’s a very easy way to just start it. He doesn’t need to do the pushing part

The idea is surely that his domestic audience needs to believe that he's right when he says "NATO are coming to destroy us", the only way outside of an actual NATO invasion to regime change in Russia is if the people decide to change.

Would NATO involvement shore up significantly weakening support despite the reporting restrictions? Possibly, who knows, but that's the argument, and the only people who have to die for the "not involved" decision are Russian and (mostly) Ukrainian, so you can understand why it's favoured by many in NATO.

AbsentmindedWoman · 09/03/2022 22:45

That is fascinating, thanks. I very much doubt he wants to take Ireland, though!

Don't forget it was just a few weeks ago really that the Russian Navy were floating about off the coast of Ireland pissing everyone off.

There was legitimate concern for the transatlantic cables. There was a suggestion that they were mapping out these cables since 2014.

This is leaving out the fishermen who were (rightly) annoyed by the threat of interference in their catch.

1dayatatime · 09/03/2022 22:49

@BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation

"He will use chemical weapons next. He will goad NATO into intervening. He's a monster."

++++

I agree with you on the chemical weapons point, but because faced with a choice of backing down / humiliation or escalation then Putin will choose escalation.

With the fake news on Russian troops discovering Ukrainian plans for biological weaywe can already start to see Putin laying the grounds or story justifying for using chemical weapons. Plus if Russian troops enter Kyiv then their casualties will really go up, chemical weapons have the advantage of killing people but not destroying the city.

The scenario I then see is that if Putin did use chemical weapons then there would be a considerable public pressure to bring in a no fly zone, at which point NATO is effectively at war with Russia.

Faced with a far superior NATO alliance of forces either in the air or on the ground then other than backing down / humiliation the only way to stop for example NATO air superiority is to go after the air bases which 1) would involve an attack on a NATO country and 2) the easiest way to destroy an air base when you don't have air superiority is to use a tactical nuclear missile. Noting that unlike NATO, Russia does not have a "no first use policy " on tactical nuclear weapons.

I truly believe this is the most dangerous moment for the world since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

Papertyger · 09/03/2022 22:49

Wrong kind of other coat, good post.
It frames it from a different perspective.

Papertyger · 09/03/2022 22:52

If that was spammed out on sm and got into Russia that would help to erode fear of Putin and any lingering support.

Was it worth it Putin?
Crashed ruble
Babies killed
Conscripts etc.
Ect