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Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

996 replies

cakeorwine · 07/03/2022 19:53

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

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17
BreadInCaptivity · 08/03/2022 22:39

Sorry technicality...

SenseFromThoughtDivide · 08/03/2022 22:42

I wonder if the Migs will get to Ukraine using a modern version of how America got planes to Britain when WW2 broke out. It was illegal to just send the planes to us, so America flew them to the Canadian border where they were towed across by horse and cart, and then the Canadians sent them on. Everyone had clean hands, but everyone got what they needed

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 22:42

@EsmaCannonball

I'm a bit suspicious that a lot of posters critical of Ukraine's resistance and western actions do not seem to have English as a first language. Bot farms are real.
Yup
RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 22:45

Anders Ã…slund @anders_aslund
Rethinking Russia sanctions:
1. The threat of sanctions on Russia failed as a deterrence, because the West was never credible. Western politicians talked about "sanctions to hell" ever so often but did nothing. Putin concluded that nothing would happen.

2. Putin and all his bankers claimed the sanctions of 2014 were ineffective, while @MSnegovaya and i argued that they shaved off about 2.5% of GDP each year 2014-20. Nobody cared about reality, but Russia's GDP did not grow for 7 years.

3. Before invading Ukraine, Putin thought that Western sanctions have little impact and that the West will do little in the future. He was completely wrong on both accounts. The West, especially Europe was shocked by his stupidity, lawlessness & cruelty & did everything.

4. As a result of his stupidity or ruthlessness, Putin has unleashed Western sanctions that are worse than those on Iran or Venezuela, that have been devastated. Russia is far more vulnerable being dependent for two-thirds of its exports on two products, oil and gas.

5. Highly corrupt Venezuela has had the worst declines in GDP for the five years 2016-20:
2016: -17%
2017: -16%
2018: -20%
2019: -35%
2020: -30%
Tragically for Venezuela, this disaster has not finished the Madura government. Very bad rulers can last long.

^6. Iran, which has managed to maintain larger human resources (don't ask me how!), benefited greatly from its nuclear agreement with a GDP jump of 13% in 2016, but the severe (and unjustified) Trump sanctions slashed its GDP by 6% in 2018 and 7% in 2019.
Sanctions work.^

7. If Putin had any sense & analytical capacity (which I doubt) he would draw three conclusions:
A. These Western sanctions will devastate Russia.
B. He can stop them by withdrawing from Ukraine.
C. The West holds firm & will not buy his lies.
Yet, Maduro & Mugabe persisted...

Shuuu · 08/03/2022 22:46

@BreadInCaptivity thank you for clarifying.

I hope they make a huge difference for Ukraine. These threads are very informative & interesting.

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 22:48

I think Putin miscalculated here, but he's a terrifyingly astute man. He's long ago stepped outside any sort of moral framework but he's extraordinarily skilful at what he does.

EezyOozy · 08/03/2022 22:50

he's extraordinarily skilful at what he does

Which is??

Saku · 08/03/2022 22:51

@EsmaCannonball xenophobic remark

@Booklover3 May be monster Putin thinks ..a bare land is better than a land lined up with US Missiles pointing to Russian capital just 500 km away.
Anyways awful thinking.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 22:53

@hassletassle

he's extraordinarily skilful at what he does

Which is??

Getting away with it.

Still being in power.

Booklover3 · 08/03/2022 23:01

Yes @RedToothBrush it’s about time he stopped getting away with it

BreadInCaptivity · 08/03/2022 23:02

[quote Saku]@EsmaCannonball xenophobic remark

@Booklover3 May be monster Putin thinks ..a bare land is better than a land lined up with US Missiles pointing to Russian capital just 500 km away.
Anyways awful thinking.[/quote]

Except nobody has ever suggested putting US missiles (or NATO missiles) or military on Ukrainian soil.

It's just bullshit.

Stop it. You're embarrassing yourself and nobody is buying what you are trying to sell.

This is MumsNet not MuppetNet.

toastfiend · 08/03/2022 23:03

[quote Saku]@EsmaCannonball xenophobic remark

@Booklover3 May be monster Putin thinks ..a bare land is better than a land lined up with US Missiles pointing to Russian capital just 500 km away.
Anyways awful thinking.[/quote]
What missiles are these?

You're talking bollocks.

sadeyedladyofthelowlandsea · 08/03/2022 23:12

@Saku What is the one thing in the world that would end the suffering of people in Ukraine? The one single thing? Right now, what would stop this situation? A single sentence answer will suffice.

(delurking, have been following these threads fervently, but not had anything to add. Huge, huge thanks to all of you who are posting information I've missed, explaining things I don't understand, and giving us the benefit of your knowledge & expertise. I have a lot of friends directly involved in this, and not only is it helping me to understand things better, but I'm able to pass on trusted information to them & their families as a result).

BreadInCaptivity · 08/03/2022 23:12

Goodness me the sense of Ukrainian humour in the face of adversity 💪:

https://twitter.com/bizukrainee_mag/status/1501254688238362626?s=21

After 12 days of stealing Putin's tanks, Ukrainian farmers are now unofficially the fifth-largest military in Europe

DrBlackbird · 08/03/2022 23:15

if Ukraine don’t try to join NATO, does that mean Russia could try to invade them again in future years?

Ukraine could say that they never intend to join NATO similar to how Russia said they were never intending to invade Ukraine?

Scianel · 08/03/2022 23:19

Yet, Maduro & Mugabe persisted...

That's a good if depressing point. That old bastard Mugabe hung on for years and years of utter misery (for almost everyone else) and a good chunk of the working age population decamped to South Africa.

So I'm not necessarily convinced by the theory that if things get bad enough for the population they'll get rid.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 23:20

@DrBlackbird

if Ukraine don’t try to join NATO, does that mean Russia could try to invade them again in future years?

Ukraine could say that they never intend to join NATO similar to how Russia said they were never intending to invade Ukraine?

I thought they were still going for EU membership. (Or NATO via the backdoor as some might call it)

Not that its relevant, cos its not about NATO and Putin just wants Ukraine to cease existing because he had a sense of humour bypass and hates comedian who like democracy...

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 23:31

@Hassletassle

He has survived from being a KGB man for 15 years to apparently a part time taxi driver, then rising up within ten years to become Yeltsin's designated successor. Ten years.

He has consolidated his grip on Russia and removed all effective opposition, and top Russian people are not a bunch of cute pussycats.

He has ensured that the resources of gas and oil are under the control of his people and not independent. A considerable part of this money has gone not to the country but to his oligarchs.

By buying people and by threats backed up with action he has ensured that people know that crossing him is a highly dangerous choice. He uses the weopons of threat, murder and humiliation expertly to increase fear.

His media control in his own country is very effective - hence why more than half of Russians believe the Ukranian 'special op' was justified, and that the West is an aggressor.

I personally believe that he was instrumental in getting Trump, who really isn't sane, into office and he also holds a web around him. I think that if Trump had been in office now, he'd have blustered but done nothing, because Putin has too much influence around him and if Trump had really stood up to him, Trump would have discovered his balls in a vice. Post Trump, the US is more divided than ever before as far as I am aware.

Given the years of media campaign undermining the EU, the mockery and resentment carefully created, and the Russian money that seems to have gone to the Brexit campaign plus the number of super-rich Russians who've bought into the UK, I personally think that Brexit was very much influenced by him.

The German chancellor before Merkel, Gerhardt Schroder, went from being Chancellor of Germany to working directly with and for the Russian gas company Gazprom, then Rozneft ... never mind his involvement with Nordstream. Days after leading Germany and being familiar with all the state secrets. Given the pattern of Putin's actions, it's hard to believe that something, somewhere doesn't smell like a rotten rat.

Putin's extended influence in Africa and Syria and established a closer and closer rapport with China, right up until the present day.

Up until the Ukraine, he was successful with his military operations, which always involved shelling civilian targets to smithereens (Grozny, Syria).

None of these are the actions of a madman, and they are all the actions of a highly competent and astute man who uses the pragmatic tools of power in a very clever way.

I think he's overstepped himself with the Ukraine because whether it survives or whether it is occupied, the West will never trust him again even if at some point trading starts up again. It always does.

But he is very good at what he does, and he's had a severely deleterious effect on the political and many financial institutions of Russia and on some outside Russia too. He's a very clever blight on anything he touches.

(its very late, sorry for any typos)

FacebookPhotos · 08/03/2022 23:32

What is the one thing in the world that would end the suffering of people in Ukraine?

A full withdrawal of Russian troops, who are allowed to return home without further casualties because Putin has agreed to pay reparations for to the physical damage to Ukraine.

Back in the real world, multiple news outlets (ITV and Washington Post at least) reporting that the Russian army are (yet again) preventing evacuation of civilians. Anyone surprised?!

grannysbay · 08/03/2022 23:38

@Booklover If Putin reckons he can wipe out New York, he also knows that there is no need to put missiles in Ukraine to hit Russia

BreadInCaptivity · 08/03/2022 23:40

So I'm not necessarily convinced by the theory that if things get bad enough for the population they'll get rid.

Rather depressingly I don't think "the population" are pivotal in isolation.

It's when the people invested in and protecting the despot (the inner circle and the military) feel they have more to loose than to gain is when they fall.

This is where this conflict is interesting.

I'm sceptical that demonstrations in Russian cities will achieve much if I'm honest.

But I do think the toll on the Russian military might be a tipping point. By toll I'm sad to say I don't mean the loss of life, but rather the loss of pride.

This invasion has resulted in a significant re-appraisal of Russian military strength - to be clear I'm not suggesting they are without teeth. However their ability to effectively manage large campaigns is now questionable (poor comms, maintenance, strategy, logistics etc).

That's going to be a hard situation for military leaders to swallow. How long will they stay loyal to a man who through lies and secrecy have hobbled his own forces? Or whose set an example of skimming off the "profits" created an environment where it's acceptable at every level resulting in equipment not being replaced/maintained?

How many senior members of the military are being called upon right now to unfuck a mess that if they had been consulted on would likely have never engaged in and have watched very senior ranks lost to this war?

How many oligarchs are bleeding wealth right now? Worried for their assets and security?

Money isn't a lot of fun when you're hold up in international waters afraid to port or in Moscow where you can't even source your Prada now....and what about your children in prestigious schools/addresses across the world? Bet their social circle has withered somewhat.....

Booklover3 · 08/03/2022 23:43

[quote grannysbay]@Booklover If Putin reckons he can wipe out New York, he also knows that there is no need to put missiles in Ukraine to hit Russia[/quote]
It wasn’t me who said anything about missiles. It was Saku. I know that’s a load of cobblers.

Scianel · 08/03/2022 23:43

twitter.com/PentagonPresSec/status/1501336445729968129?t=pJmSDExf2IG4Dj1uXgXMyw&s=19

The planes idea has been nixed by the US.

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 23:45

Just to finish off, I forgot to say

The moment that Putin does acknowledge some sort of peace either with occupation of Ukraine or without, he will be working on regrouping and trying to extend his influence further.

(Consider also that a number of the really effective cyber attack criminal groups seem to have links with the Russian govt, at least, if not directly taking orders from them. They've stolen insane amounts of money).

carrottopper · 08/03/2022 23:46

The news seems to suggest Russia are losing equipment and men fast. If all trade and businesses withdraw, and we cut him off, won't he feel like he has nothing to lose and start the nuclear war?

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