Expansion on earlier story from other sources
Olivia Gazis @olivia_gazis
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has produced a "shock to the geopolitical order" that we are just beginning to understand.
"The invasion has in fact proceeded consistent with the plan we assessed the Russian military would follow."
Russia is facing "significantly more resistance" from Ukraine. "Russia's failure to rapidly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military victory" that had probably been expected.
We judge it will be "especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable, pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be a persistent and significant insurgency."
Russian forces are operating with "reckless disregard for the safety of non-combatants," launching strikes in urban areas and near critical infrastructure.
The IC is ready to document and hold Russian actors accountable for their actions, DNI says.
We judge that Putin "did not anticipate" the degree of coordination of western sanctions or accompanying response from the private sector, DNI says.
"Nevertheless our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate" its aggression
Putin feels "aggrieved" and increasingly sees the conflict that "he cannot afford to lose," Director of National Intelligence says. "His nuclear saber rattling is very much in line with this assessment" - though U.S. has not observed posture changes
CIA Director William Burns: Vladimir Putin has been stewing in a "combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years." He went to war on the basis of a number of assumptions that led him to believe Russia faced a favorable landscape... "he's been proven wrong"
Defense Intelligence Agency Director LTG Scott Berrier says Russia's military has suffered "somewhere between 2,000-4,000" casualties - a "low-confidence" assessment he says is drawn from intelligence and open sources
The intelligence community is watching "very closely" for movements related to Putin's strategic/nuclear forces but "we're not seeing something at this stage that indicates that he is doing something different than what we've seen in the past," DNI says
As this continues, we'll see Russia "spinning narratives that are false," DNI Haines says.
CIA's Burns points to false accusations of Ukraine's use of chemical weapons in the Donbass - narratives Russia could continue fabricating "particularly as they get more desperate."
Russia and other actors continue to support "particular groups" within the U.S. as part of a malign influence campaign, say DNI Haines and FBI Director Wray. "It does continue to be a phenomenon; we should expect it to continue to be a threat."
"I believe that it continues to be the case that they are getting closer together," DNI Haines says of Russia and China, adding, "I think there's a limit to which it will go."
CIA Director Burns says Xi and Chinese leadership are "unsettled" by events in Ukraine and how they have driven Europe and the US closer together. They are also wary of the potential "reputational damage" their close association with Moscow could produce
NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone says his agency has a "high degree of vigilance for a number of different threat streams," including ones "not necessarily predicated" on events in Ukraine
"Whatever we can lawfully seize, we're going to go after," says FBI Director Chris Wray of U.S. efforts to hold Russian oligarchs accountable
My bold.
US have clear eyes on nuke stuff by sound of it.