Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

[cakeorwine]

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

@Saku

War could have been avoided by talking to Russia(Lets say Monster Putin). It would have been a better position to negotiate with him then than Now.

You live in Putin's world don't you?

How the fuck could war have been avoided other than by, oh yes, surrendering? Did it escape your notice that .... Putin's tanks rolled in? Not the Ukraine's into Russia?

twitter.com/houseofcommons/status/1501217011732561941?s=21

We’ll be live streaming an address from the President of Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa at 5pm.

You can also watch live on Parliament TV: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/28…

Re the guardian article, i have to admit to rolling my eyes at the idea that there are only two exits.

Too many variables even now to predict.

D'you think there's a real possibility that the Ukrainians might hold Kyiv and even push back hard enough to recapture the lost Kherson? asks slightly wistfully

Faisal Islam on Twitter:

NEW
EU announce ambitious plan to cut the 155 billion cubic metres of Russian gas consumers by Europe to 50 by the end of 2022

• EU wide turning down of thermostats by 1C saving 10bcm
• frontloading renewable 20bcm
• LNG diversification 50 bcm
• pipeline diversification 10 bcm

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1501212623227994120?s=20&t=UZWp-OzJabf56alN63O_6w

And from Laura Kuenssberg:

Separately, UK govt expected to announce an effective ban on Russian oil (not gas at this stage) by the end of 2022, giving the market what ministers believe is enough time to adjust - 18pc of UK diesel comes from Russian - announcement likely at 4pm

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1501215144076103689?s=20&t=UZWp-OzJabf56alN63O_6w

Saku's argument is along the same lines as Thirtyandfeelingfifty 's argument on the last thread: that for the "greater good", Ukraine should give way to the bully - and that Zelenskyy is somehow to blame for "forcing" Russia to invade by inconsiderately continuing to insist that they are a sovereign nation allowed to make their own choices

.

I used to moderate forums elsewhere. You have to be ever so polite! :D

But there are a number of characteristics you learn to look out for when you're dealing with shills and trolls. thirtyandfifty and several others were, I have no doubt, shills.

You can't always get it right but a significant proportion of the time it's possible, specially if you can do some digging behind the scenes.

Not that I am condoning buying Russian oil but it makes me uncomfortable that it appears the US has likely pressured the UK into this ban and then it happens that we will now be buying stocks from the US. Just seems very convenient for them to put pressure on other countries and then make countries rely on the US to supply them

@Ijsbear

D'you think there's a real possibility that the Ukrainians might hold Kyiv and even push back hard enough to recapture the lost Kherson? asks slightly wistfully

Yes it's possible imho.

The Ukrainian forces has proven very effective, but even the best fighting forces are susceptible to defeat.

If the Russians are going for broke its debatable after they've finished, how much of Kyiv there would be to claim.

Previous Russian tactics in Syria weren't about capturing a city intact.

In fact it's pretty hard to "win" a city in tanks - they are just not suited to the terrain and "home" troops have the advantage in street fighting simply because they know the geography.

So it's logical to assume the Russians will try and bombard Kyiv into submission.

Even if they succeed it's not game over. If the govt can get out they can create a seat if govt elsewhere (benefit of such a large country) but it would be a blow to lose the capital and o think they'll fight hard to keep it.

www.reuters.com/world/russia-calls-return-peaceful-co-existence-with-us-like-during-cold-war-interfax-2022-03-08/

@Jisforjelly

[quote theDudesmummy]@dreamingbohemian thanks for that, I suspected that someone would be along to disagree with that dude, who seemed to me to have quite an extreme view, but I am but a (relatively well- informed) layperson in this area and so don't always know who/what to listen to. The Guardian has published some wildly diverse opinions recently, I am beginning to wonder about trusting it...[/quote]
Isn't it rather pleasing that there is a media outlet that is prepared to print diverse opinions?
But they are just opinions, everyone has them, doesn't mean they are any good.

Zelensky(Ukraine govt.) want to join the Nato/EU because he want their country safe and People safe ...... is it ??

His government won an election. He was known to be pro-EU and pro-NATO and the people of Ukraine elected him. It isn't about what he wants, it is about what the people of Ukraine want. And they appear to want to stand up to Russia and are willing to die over it. Those of us safe in the UK have no right to judge any of them for refusing to capitulate.

Gordon Corera @gordoncorera
New - US Defence Intelligence Agency head estimates between 2000-4000 Russian soldiers killed, based on intelligence and other reporting (but with low confidence on the estimate). ‘They had a bad plan’ Scott Berrier told a congressional hearing

DNI Haines says Putin's nuclear alert was ‘extremely unusual’-US had not seen similar statements since the 1960s. However, US intelligence had not seen changes in the posture of Russia’s nuclear forces beyond those normal at times of heightened tension and see it as 'signalling'

DNI Haines says Putin's nuclear alert was ‘extremely unusual’-US had not seen similar statements since the 1960s. However, US intelligence had not seen changes in the posture of Russia’s nuclear forces beyond those normal at times of heightened tension and see it as 'signalling'

Alex Panetta @alex_pannetta
CIA director just testified at the House intel committee that Putin made 4 assumptions:
-Ukraine would be weak and easily intimidated
-Europe would be distracted
-His economy was sanctions-proof
-His military was modernized and poised for a quick win

"Flawed on all counts."

/ Burns says Putin is angry and frustrated now and is likely to double-down.

His invasion was based on a deep conviction -- a belief in this mission.

But says Putin has no sustainable end-game. He's stuck.

Lt Gen Scott Berrier just testified that Russia has lost 2-4,000 soldiers, based on US intelligence + open-source info

KEY POINT: Even Putin hasn't planned for this scenario.

Also interesting the gap between Ukraine casualty figure and US one. US one does say low confidence, and Ukraine one likely to be inflated and could be casualties (including injured) rather than dead.

Henry Horton @harry_horton
Three Yorkshire Tory MPs, @AlecShelbrooke, @JulianSturdy and @JasonMcCartney, make very clear their frustration and anger at the slow Home Office response to helping Ukrainian refugees.

"Get a grip," said Alec Shelbrooke.

I make that 5 Tory MPs in the Commons today who have kicked off at the government over the subject.

Feelings definitely running high.

Starting to worry the no fly zone will be implemented by NATO. I have been watching on the tv quite a lot of high profile figures who support it including former policy planners for NATO.

.

@BreadInCaptivity Encouraging to hear you think there is ~some~ hope. Though yeah, I'm sure there won't be a whole lot left of it. But fingers and toes crossed and prayers sent.

@FacebookPhotos

Zelensky(Ukraine govt.) want to join the Nato/EU because he want their country safe and People safe ...... is it ??

His government won an election. He was known to be pro-EU and pro-NATO and the people of Ukraine elected him. It isn't about what he wants, it is about what the people of Ukraine want. And they appear to want to stand up to Russia and are willing to die over it. Those of us safe in the UK have no right to judge any of them for refusing to capitulate.

And his predecessor who he beat was also pro-EU and pro-Nato and had indeed attended at least one Nato summit.

@AlecShelbrooke, @JulianSturdy and @JasonMcCartney, make very clear their frustration and anger at the slow Home Office response to helping Ukrainian refugees.

Wonder if my blistering email had an impact 'cos one of those buggers is mine .

@prettybird

Saku's argument is along the same lines as Thirtyandfeelingfifty 's argument on the last thread: that for the "greater good", Ukraine should give way to the bully - and that Zelenskyy is somehow to blame for "forcing" Russia to invade by inconsiderately continuing to insist that they are a sovereign nation allowed to make their own choices

What strikes me with that logic is how similar it is to the "smaller scale" blame-the-victim logic of domestic abusers and their apologists: "look what you've made me do!"

@Sunnierdays It is easy to say many things which are not realistic/happening as a "talking head" on the news, especially as "former" something! Nick Carter the previous chief of the defense staff has given an interview recently in which he made all sorts of claims about how he had predicted various stuff and how zero issues the armed forces have with equipment and procurement of kit are to do with him in any way.

@BreadInCaptivity

@AlecShelbrooke, @JulianSturdy and @JasonMcCartney, make very clear their frustration and anger at the slow Home Office response to helping Ukrainian refugees.

Wonder if my blistering email had an impact 'cos one of those buggers is mine .

Mine too! First time I've ever had opportunity to thank him for something he's done! 🙄🤣

I had a thought earlier. Bit whataboutery, but bear with me...
For all the talk of no fly zones, I wonder whether one would have been implemented if a non-nuclear, non-nato country had invaded another non-nuclear, non-nato country near-ish-by? I don't think it would have.

@BeyondPurpleTulips See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Deny_Flight