Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

[cakeorwine]

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

If you are already very anxious do not read this piece, it is not cheery reading at all. But very interesting.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories

FWIW I choose to believe it is just an opinion (albeit from someone who obviously has huge credentials on the subject). There have been so many opinions voiced in recent days/weeks, this one seems particularly defeatist though. Or should that be "realistic"? The counterpoint of people putting up fluffy pet pics with Ukrainian flags plastered over them, or making "funny" memes about how attractive Zelenesky is, is not particularly hope-inspiring either...

If you haven't already done so, especially if your MP is a Tory, please take the time today to email them over the handling of refugees. There is a growing disquiet within the Tory ranks about this.

They DO count letters/emails on a subject. They wont reply. Even if your email is

Dear MP
'sort out the refugees visas'
Regards
Ms Bloggs
Address

Thats all you need to do.

I think this one can be forced with public pressure to at least improve the situation.

@Jisforjelly I’ve read a few comments on Facebook about the cost of energy and people are feeling very anxious about it and rightly so (myself included) I’ve also read comments saying they feel that the money they’ve given to Ukraine isn’t fair when people here are struggling in poverty. I wonder if this will be a more common attitude going forward?

Well there will certainly be a lot of posts on FB in the near future trying to sway the publics opinion on aid to Ukraine, I would have to admit to being suspicious as to where they originated from.

@Leafblowing I am choosing to see the economic ruin of Putin and his cronies as a realistic alternative to WW3 or the destruction of Ukraine.

Yes, @GallopingHighRoad ecomomies can be rebuilt, but there is a possiblity that Russia could be so badly affected that it won't be any time soon. Caveat though of course, look what happened after Germany was completely economically crushed in 1918...it only took twenty years...

@theDudesmummy
That is my point. The economic rebuild might be the tortoise and a younger digitally enabled generation will be the hare. Except in my story the hare wins. But as a precaution we should always prepare for what may go wrong. That is a key military principle on the route to success.

We were warned that Putin would invade. We understood that this would mean that vast numbers of people would need to flee. We should have been prepared and up & running especially since we won't waive visas. Visa Centres, websites, phone lines, translations of everything - we should have been all over this.

The Polish VAC is run by a private company- is this normal practice? Maybe that's where it's falling down, I dunno.

(Kudos to Wallace and all those working with him. He is getting it right as far as I can see)

I wonder if actually Navalny is dead and people are simply pretending he's still alive?
I so hope he is not dead. Talking of brave people..,..,...,...

@DuncinToffee

Sir Roger Gale has been speaking out in parliament.

and Tory MP Tracy Crouch warns there are no available appointments at the UK’s refugee application centre in Rzeszow, Poland until….."the end of next month"

That's appalling, they can't wait six weeks, they shouldn't even be waiting six hours, and if they are waiting, they should be fed, kept warm and cared for whilst they are. I'm glad that Conservative MPs are raising the issue, hopefully they can pressure the government to step up and act quickly.

It sounds like they need Ben Wallace to take over, if he knows what he's doing. This is too important to mess up.

@RedToothBrush done via TheyWorkForYou.com, took 2 mins.

I kind of wonder if abstain means you owe China money

Interesting point.

That Lawrence Freedman piece was a good read. The BBC map in the piece was also interesting, it shows how little of Ukraine the Russians have actually taken if you remove the already annexed Crimea and the big chunk of the east in the seperatist Donbas and Luhansk regions which were also largely under Russian control pre invasion.

The question that keeps bothering me is why now ? The Russians must have known about the Rasputitsa, given it also effects Russia and Belarus at this time of the year, there was no way Ukraine was getting into Nato any time soon due to the ongoing conflict in the East of the country, so why not wait until better weather conditions for your army and equipment ? The war in the east has been going on since 2008 ? Crimea was annexed in 2014, what actually precipitated Putin to make a move now ?

@Leafblowing

Can I ask a question that’s bugging me?

Why do people keep saying ww3 is inevitable because Russia will invade a Nato country in the near future? I don’t see how he’ll be able to as he’s being hit so hard financially that he won’t be able to pay the army or pay to maintain the equipment and artillery? So if he’s struggled with Ukraine how will he manage say Poland?

It would also appear that over the last 13 days we have all learnt that the Russian military isn't up to all that much.

@BettyOBarley I can find the China, France and Germany story but not the USA and Russia one?

@Notonthestairs

We were warned that Putin would invade. We understood that this would mean that vast numbers of people would need to flee. We should have been prepared and up & running especially since we won't waive visas. Visa Centres, websites, phone lines, translations of everything - we should have been all over this.

The Polish VAC is run by a private company- is this normal practice? Maybe that's where it's falling down, I dunno.

(Kudos to Wallace and all those working with him. He is getting it right as far as I can see)

Yes the UK outsourced all its visa processing to private companies years ago, it's really awful. This is why you have to pay to call help lines or to get appointments or do anything. And this is why it takes so long for the UK to do anything. Other countries can just temporarily boost their consulate staff, move them around, etc.

From CNN White House correspondent @kaitlancollins
At 10:45 this morning, President Biden is expected to announce that the US is banning Russian energy imports.

Presumably though that means energy is about to get (yet more) expensive for anyone who isn't prepared to buy from Russia.

I've been following these threads from the beginning (long-time MN lurker, very occasional poster, and routine name-changer, before anyone queries), and they've been an invaluable and at times reassuring source of information for me, as someone who knows little about geopolitics. Thank you to all the knowledgeable contributors.

I read this on the Guardian website today (sorry if this has already been linked - I have to miss a few pages of the thread every now and then because I just can't keep up around work): www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-possible-trajectories.

If this article hasn't already been discussed on here, I'd be interested to hear what other posters think about the 'likely outcomes' it suggests - @RedToothBrush and others way more in the know than me? I have been, and want to be, more hopeful but this is pretty bleak.

@Notonthestairs

We were warned that Putin would invade. We understood that this would mean that vast numbers of people would need to flee. We should have been prepared and up & running especially since we won't waive visas. Visa Centres, websites, phone lines, translations of everything - we should have been all over this.

The Polish VAC is run by a private company- is this normal practice? Maybe that's where it's falling down, I dunno.

(Kudos to Wallace and all those working with him. He is getting it right as far as I can see)

But we all know that it is very important to outsource everything at every opportunity as the creativity of the private sector means that money that could otherwise be spent on supporting people goes to those who are already rich.

See for instance the differences between the outsourced Test and Trace and NHS run vaccine programme.

@Wrongkindofovercoat

That Lawrence Freedman piece was a good read. The BBC map in the piece was also interesting, it shows how little of Ukraine the Russians have actually taken if you remove the already annexed Crimea and the big chunk of the east in the seperatist Donbas and Luhansk regions which were also largely under Russian control pre invasion.

The question that keeps bothering me is why now ? The Russians must have known about the Rasputitsa, given it also effects Russia and Belarus at this time of the year, there was no way Ukraine was getting into Nato any time soon due to the ongoing conflict in the East of the country, so why not wait until better weather conditions for your army and equipment ? The war in the east has been going on since 2008 ? Crimea was annexed in 2014, what actually precipitated Putin to make a move now ?

A good question that we don't really know the answer to yet (and may never know)

Putin had to wait until he had sufficient strength in theatre but he could have moved a couple weeks ago most likely

Some people think he promised Xi that he wouldn't invade during the Olympics, if true that was really stupid

It's also possible they didn't worry too much about the weather/ground because they thought the war would be over within a couple days

@RedToothBrush re the DoD stepping in to bail out various other departments, it should not be forgotten that numbers of military personnel have been depleted significantly in recent years and that is causing huge amounts of stress. It was one of several factors that led DH to leave the RAF after almost 20 years - fewer people being expected to the same, and often more, work.

@RedToothBrush worth knowing that they count I wasn't aware of that , I will email mine
I think we need to be doing a bit more here in whatever way is needed even if money towards refugees in other countries as we can't assume they will want to come here but the option would be somethinh

@jgw1 unfortunately, the conventional army being not up to much may well increase the likelihood of Russia using nuclear, not necessarily all-out intercontinental war, but strategic nuclear, as described in the piece I linked above. With his tanks being destroyed or blocked, his soldiers killed and captured and his economy tanking, you have you wonder what Putin's thought processes will be.

A more positive thought would be wondering what the average Russian citizen's thought processes may be if all this becomes clear to them. He is a dictator but even dictators can be overthrown.

@theDudesmummy - cross-posted with you! I was making a coffee and writing my message when you linked to the same article. Yes, not cheery reading. I too keep trying to tell myself it's an opinion, however qualified, and already, many 'experts' have been surprised at how some of this has unfolded. I wonder if the 'games' (war simulations and scenarios) described in the article included for example the extreme sanctions and economic crippling we're seeing, or what they assumed about Russian army capabilities.

"Yes the UK outsourced all its visa processing to private companies years ago, it's really awful. This is why you have to pay to call help lines or to get appointments or do anything. And this is why it takes so long for the UK to do anything. Other countries can just temporarily boost their consulate staff, move them around, etc."

I had no idea. So even now it's managed for financial gain rather than humanitarian need.

@Costlyfox I linked that article a little earlier, I have mixed feelings about it TBH. It is bleak, even defeatist, but it is one viewpoint (and I don't know the author or his political beliefs, standpoint etc, I might look him up).

I have been, and want to be, more hopeful but this is pretty bleak.

He obviously has a lot of expertise, but he is trying to predict the future. When he is talking about eventual outcomes and "war games" he means a series of assumptions on what Putin, NATO, China and the rest of the world would do. Every assumption has inherent uncertainty - every decision they are modelling for every world leader at every step is far from concrete. That adds means (imo) that even an expert assessment of how this conflict will be resolved needs to be taken with a hefty dose of salt.