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Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10

996 replies

cakeorwine · 07/03/2022 19:53

That filled up quick

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4497950-Ukraine-invasion-discussion-thread-part-9

OP posts:
Thread gallery
17
Wrongkindofovercoat · 08/03/2022 10:55

Sorry I meant the light grey ones , or as its MN the ones that are pumice/dove grey as opposed to the downpipe grey abstension ones ? Smile

Wrongkindofovercoat · 08/03/2022 10:57

@PestorPeston thanks for that link , means no data.

PestorPeston · 08/03/2022 10:57

Dove grey equals no data
So Greenland equals dove grey because they are part of Denmark

PestorPeston · 08/03/2022 11:01

I kind of wonder if abstain means you owe China money
Yes equals you owe US or Europe money.
It is of course much more complicated but does illustrate that much of the world, although generally horrified by Russia's actions, views the current situation from a different angle to us lucky westerners.

DuncinToffee · 08/03/2022 11:05

Article on the BBC

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-6065385
The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, has warned the conflict in Ukraine could send global food prices soaring, with a catastrophic impact on the world's poorest.
Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of basic foodstuffs, and the war has already hit crop production, driving up prices
Mr Beasley said it was putting more people at risk of starvation worldwide.
"Just when you think hell on earth can't get any worse, it does," he said.^

PestorPeston · 08/03/2022 11:09

We in the west view this war as a threat to Europe and NATO , some other countries will view it as 'what proportion of their population will starve'.

workisnotawolf · 08/03/2022 11:12

www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/8/russia-tilt-essential-to-indias-strategic

New Delhi, India–India has held its nose and abstained five times since the February 24 invasion of Ukraine by Russia. While none of these abstentions has affected the outcome of the vote, they were driven by the South Asian country’s need to secure its supply of defence equipment, the majority of which it gets from Russia, experts say.

India’s reliance on Russian military and strategic equipment is “huge”, said retired Lieutenant General Deependra Singh Hooda, former commander of India’s northern army. “I mean, 60-70 percent of the equipment is Russian,” he said, listing air force fighters and air defence systems, army’s armour and the navy’s aircraft carrier and frigates. Notably, “who else will lease a nuclear submarine to you?” he asks.

My opinion: It is a very fine power balance between India and China as well.

Wrongkindofovercoat · 08/03/2022 11:15

So we allowed to discuss global politics just not domestic ones Wink

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:20

Ooo we are back.

This is the supporters of the imprisoned Russian opposition leader

Alexey Navalny @navalny
1/14 Whether Russians actually support the hideous war that Putin has waged against Ukraine is a matter of utmost political importance. The answer to this question will largely define Russia’s place in the history of the 21st century.

2/14 It’s one thing if Putin killed Ukrainian civilians and destroyed life-critical infrastructure with full approval from the Russian citizens. However, it’s a whole different story if Putin’s bloody venture is not supported by the society.

3/14 How can we measure this? To run a classic phone survey is time-consuming. Therefore we decide to hold a series of 4 quick, ultra-short online polls. Each of them included 700 participants from Moscow, all of them Internet users; quota sampling by gender and age took place.

4/14 We can observe rapid shifts in the evaluation of Russia’s role in the war. The share of respondents who view Russia as the aggressor doubled, while the share of those considering Russia a “peace-maker” halved.

5/14 Although many of the participants still tend to blame “the West” for initiating the war, the number of respondents who consider Ukraine guilty went down in half. Meanwhile, the share of those accusing Russia increased from 14% to 36%, i.e. by 2.5 times.

6/14 The numbers of those considering the war consequence-free were scarce right from the start of the invasion, and decreased further by three times in a week’s period.

7/14 And finally, the majority stand in favor of negotiations, peace and the soonest possible end to this fratricidal war.

8/14 As noted above, this is not a nationwide poll. We don’t know the relation between these figures and the general population. However, running 4 survey waves in a short timeframe while adhering to the same method gave us an opportunity to observe the dynamics of public opinion

9/14 Throughout the history of ACF’s polling department, we have never observed such dynamics of public opinion shifts. It took a few days of war to bring about radical mood changes among Russians.

10/14 The nature of these changes is plain and unambiguous: people rapidly begin to realize who is responsible for initiating the conflict, as well as the war’s true objectives and possible outcomes.

11/14 Undoubtedly, the Kremlin can see these dynamics as well, hence the nervousness, the desperate attempts to end the war campaign as soon as possible.

12/14 The anti-war momentum will keep growing across the society, so the anti-war protests should not be halted under any circumstances.

13/14 People are generally willing to change their stance, but only if we engage them in the dialogue and provide them with true information about the war.

14/14 The primary survey data can be viewed and double-checked here

Massive cavets on this

  1. it could be trying to push opinion rather than reflect it
  2. respondents may be less willing to engage with the question at all, if they are pro war. This might be showing disengagement on one side rather that antiwar support increasing markedly. It might therefore be showing greater polarisation rather than a genuine shift in opinion.
  3. we don't know how representative those polled really are
  4. its taken in moscow which is much more likely to have higher levels of liberal leaners. Political patterns across Europe show much more conservative views in rural and provincial areas compared to cities

Will the government be following the same thing? I don't know. People may be less willing to answer honestly if they know its a government organisation.

I personally think this survey is highly problematic in terms of how reflective it is. I would suggest its showing something, but not necessarily whats claimed here

Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10
Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10
Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10
CaveMum · 08/03/2022 11:22

Can I just say, for those that want to learn a bit more about military history (everything from Napoleon to the fall of the USSR, plus recent episodes relevant to the current situation) then the podcast Warfare is well worth listening to. The episodes are generally about 30 mins long so just right for a walk.

DuncinToffee · 08/03/2022 11:22

@Wrongkindofovercoat

So we allowed to discuss global politics just not domestic ones Wink
According to the unelected thread police Wink
RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:22

Last graph

Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 10
DGRossetti · 08/03/2022 11:22

Agreed, the effects will be felt world wide

"The effects are being felt world wide."

FTFY.

HappyWinter · 08/03/2022 11:22

The soaring food prices are very worrying regarding the impact on the world's poorest, the consequences of this conflict really are far reaching. Is there anything we can do in the UK to help? I guess we can try and increase our own food production so we are importing less and those imports can go to other countries, and increasing aid through either government or private donations.

GallopingHighRoad · 08/03/2022 11:28

@HappyWinter An increasing amount of UK land is given over to energy production. There is already a conflict of land use. Probably the worst thing we do is waste food.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:29

Yesterday the UK and US were putting pressure on the EU to ban imports of Russian oil. Scholz quickly binned the idea. However

Faisal islam @faisalislam
Shell announces “its intent to withdraw from its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons, including crude oil, gas and LNG in a phased manner, aligned with new government guidance”.

Stopping spot purchases of Russian crude and shutting its petrol stations there

The embargo on Russian oil is happening non officially… contributing to price rises…

Shell were called out by the Ukrainian foreign minister over the weekend …

Another example of Ukraine using leverage via multinationals for diplomatic means, to continue to squeeze Moscow…

Shell chief exec Ben Van Beurden apologises for buying that tanker of Russian crude, for which Shell was criticised by Ukraine foreign minister

“We are acutely aware that our decision last week to purchase a cargo of Russian crude oil.. was not the right one and we are sorry.”

Remember dockers in the uk had been refusing to off load too which may have contributed to this decision.

How long this lasts and whether shell will quietly start buying again when no one is paying attention in a few weeks I don't know.

Worth watching Coca-Cola and Mcdonalds as theres pressure being applied for them to pull out.

Tbh i doubt many will be able to afford either in a few weeks anyway...

DuncinToffee · 08/03/2022 11:29

Shell to stop purchases of Russian crude oil

Oil giant Shell says it is sorry for buying a shipment of Russian oil last week at knock-down prices.

"We are acutely aware that our decision last week to purchase a cargo of Russian crude oil to be refined into products like petrol and diesel - despite being made with security of supplies at the forefront of our thinking - was not the right one and we are sorry," chief executive Ben van Beurden says.

The business says it will immediately stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil and will shut its service stations, aviation fuel and lubricants operations in Russia.

It says its withdrawal from other associations with Russia will be done "in a phased manner, aligned with new government guidance".

BBC

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:31

@HappyWinter

The soaring food prices are very worrying regarding the impact on the world's poorest, the consequences of this conflict really are far reaching. Is there anything we can do in the UK to help? I guess we can try and increase our own food production so we are importing less and those imports can go to other countries, and increasing aid through either government or private donations.
Food shortages make political unrest more likely.

It also makes economic migration more likely.

A busy summer in the Med awaits.

Ijsbear · 08/03/2022 11:31

How come Putin hasn't actually knocked Navalny off yet? That's really rather surprising.

AuldAlliance · 08/03/2022 11:31

@PestorPeston

I kind of wonder if abstain means you owe China money Yes equals you owe US or Europe money. It is of course much more complicated but does illustrate that much of the world, although generally horrified by Russia's actions, views the current situation from a different angle to us lucky westerners.
Possibly. There are multiple factors at play.

Russia has been present for a good while now in Africa, and in places like Madagascar (a country that probably barely registers on most UK citizens' radars, beyond the fact that lemurs are very cute).

www.nytimes.com/2019/11/11/world/africa/russia-madagascar-election.html

PestorPeston · 08/03/2022 11:41

China also has a presence in Africa. Equatorial Guinea abstained.
www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/china-africa-12262021114423.html#:~:text=China%20is%20building%20a%20new,the%20coast%20of%20West%20Africa.

In fact China has a lot of ports worldwide, almost like they noticed that these things may be important.
The whole world has a vested interest in this war. But at the end of the day it is the poor Ukrainians who are paying for it with their lives.

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:43

Really good article on how this is affecting the government, its plans, whether its properly assessing information and future fall out.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Times read on how Boris Johnson believes Ukraine crisis has saved his Premiership:

* No 10 says there has been ‘paradigm shift’ in public perception

* Lab lead down to 2 points - lowest since Dec

* But No 10 dysfunction remains amid chaotic response

Times read on how Boris Johnson believes Ukraine crisis has saved his Premiership:

Some say scale of Ukraine crisis has masked dysfunction in No 10

They point to internal clashes on sanctions & chaos over refugee policy

No 10 reset has also led to tensions - Steve Barclay cut many senior officials out of key meetings & new COO said to be ‘tin eared’

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/84b8757e-9e2e-11ec-a33b-e5ebed659a52?shareToken=2dff00aa8240717d33ae189d03c6452b
Ukraine has helped Boris Johnson in the polls but he is not out of the woods yet
Allies who feel war has secured the PM’s position may be in for a shock

“His critics are all silent because if they continue to push for the prime minister to go then navel-gazing doesn’t even describe it,” one cabinet loyalist said. “They would look self-interested and obsessed. They would not just be damaging the UK [in triggering a leadership contest] but the entire war effort and the Ukrainian people.”

Even Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, declined to repeat his call for Johnson to go on Sunday, arguing instead that it was a time for unity.

And

There is still significant dysfunction in No 10 and across Whitehall as the government has found itself struggling to match its rhetoric on Russia with concrete action, leading to a series of clashes.

Having pledged to sanction dozens of oligarchs, the government has been left to look flat-footed after the UK was forced to play catch-up with the EU and US sanctions.

Officials have warned it could take months for the government to identify oligarch assets and sanction them, warning about the legal risk involved, particularly of large payouts. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is said to have branded officials she sees as blocking tougher action as a “bunch of bedwetters”.

And

Johnson’s Downing Street “reset” has caused problems of its own, with the changes to his administration alienating a number of existing Downing Street staffers.

Steve Barclay, the prime minister’s new chief of staff, has cut many No 10 officials out of regular meetings with the prime minister which they used to enjoy in the past.

Meanwhile Samantha Jones, the former NHS executive who was brought in as Downing Street’s chief operating officer, has been accused of taking a “tin-eared” approach to reforming the Downing Street machine.

“People are horrified by her approach to things, which is essentially to go on and on about how you are going to make it a more professional place,” one government source said. “People find it really insulting having spent years thinking they were doing quite a professional job.”

Many officials and political appointees are said to be desperate to get out.

“Previously there were morning meetings that brought together private office, the policy unit, press office and senior people across the building,” one government source said.

“That has all collapsed back to a meeting that is simply of Barclay, Rishi (Sunak) and Guto (Hari, Johnson’s communication director).

“A lot of people who have very senior sounding jobs are wondering whether they have any actual influence.”

And

There are also growing concerns in the Treasury that a geo-political crisis will soon become an economic one. Energy bills are poised to rise by more than £3,000 in October after sanctions helped to push gas and energy prices to record levels.

Inflation could peak at 8.4 per cent in the spring, the highest since 1982, bringing people’s living standards down.

Sunak’s plans to cut income tax by 2p in the pound in the run-up to the next election already look to be at risk; ministers believe that any fiscal headroom will be needed for a far bigger intervention on energy bills than the £9 billion package already announced this year.

The Ukraine crisis has also led to a recalibration of the conversation about who should succeed Johnson as Wallace’s popularity has surged.

The defence secretary has risen to the top of ConservativeHome’s league table of popularity among activists while Truss, who topped it for a year, has slipped to fifth after criticism for interventions such as suggesting Britons head to Ukraine to fight.

And finally

One Conservative opponent of Johnson’s leadership said that those who think the prime minister is now out of the woods are being “hubristic”. They warned that Johnson would face more scrutiny over his associates, adding: “Great dangers lurk with [party chairman] Ben Elliot and the Lebedev peerage.”

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:45

@Ijsbear

How come Putin hasn't actually knocked Navalny off yet? That's really rather surprising.
The martyr effect.

You cannot actually kill him, by killing him...

RedToothBrush · 08/03/2022 11:49

Faisal islam @faisalislam
interesting - last week, Lenta, London-listed massive Russian retailer/second largest hypermarket operator, put limits on what one person could buy instore/online - cereals, tea, canned meat and fish, oils, toilet paper, nappies etc…

lenta.com/o-kompanii/news/-------54/
Via Google translate :

Lenta imposed restrictions on the sale of a large number of goods
St. Petersburg, Russia, March 6, 2022 – Lenta (MOEX & LSE: LNTA), one of the largest multi-format retail chains in Russia, announces a restriction on the sale of goods to one person. Thus, the company expects to stop large purchases for the purpose of further resale at inflated prices.

Lenta has limited the number of products that a customer can purchase in one visit in the chain's stores and when ordering online. Restrictions apply to cereals, tea, coffee, sugar, flour, instant products, seasonings, sauces, canned meat and fish, oils, cosmetics, laundry detergents, toilet paper, baby household chemicals, and diapers.

This forced measure is aimed at reducing the risks of artificial washing out of goods from the shelves due to the purchase of large volumes of products in the store for further resale at inflated prices.

In the stores of the chain, cases have become more frequent when visitors purchase an obviously inflated amount of goods, which are subsequently sold through other channels at prices significantly higher than the prices of the store. At the same time, network customers may experience a temporary lack of products they need.

Trying to stop panic buying and price gouging then...

SpinningTheSeedsOfLove · 08/03/2022 11:50

@Wrongkindofovercoat

So we allowed to discuss global politics just not domestic ones Wink
Yes, as long as we pretend that domestic politics have no bearing on global politics, and vice versa.

Because presumably we are that unimportant.

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