Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

No expert whatsoever but I think I would accept if is supported by an international treaty undertaking by Russia to not invade or encroach on remaining Ukrainian territory indefinitely nor to influence any politics or democratic elections.

Lol Ukraine is not falling for that one again. How many times do we have to mention the Budapest Memorandum?

Or the way that Russia was adamantly denying they were going to invade right up to the minute they invaded?

Ukraine will never trust Russia again, nor should they. Russia is just proposing this deal to buy time and extricate themselves from a very bad military position.

Are we actually thinking some sort of diplomatic deal may be reached with these terms with a few concessions on either side?

As valiant as zelenskey has fought I do think this may be the best of a bad bunch of outcomes that he will be offered anytime soon.

At least with this he stays in power of Ukraine aswell which I a huge step from what we thought may be the case 10 days ago.

@ILoveAllRainbowsx

I completely agree with you about Nordstream. I just don't know why you keep bringing it up when we're talking about refugees.

The trouble with agreeing with anything with Putin is that he lies, and lies, and lies, and lies. No promises hold.

If you look at his past actions, he has actively and effectively sewn strife and weakened the West and extended Russian influence wherever he can. If there is a negotiated settlement now, it will only hold for as long as he can rebuild, possibly by strengthening links with China. It will take him some years to get back to a position where Russia is stronger, but he -will- try again. If not the Ukraine, something else. The more that he gains now in the Ukraine, the quicker he'll be back, like a rat finding another way into the larder if one hole is stopped up.

The price is very high to the people in the Ukraine - I suspect that the cities will be razed - but I don't think that settling for the first offer on the table will be good for the Ukraine or rest of the world. In fact the more brutal he is now the more likely that people will negotiate a ceasefire, but tactically it might be better to hold out.

China says the relationship with Russia is solid, despite all this, but I should think Xi Jinping might want to be very careful how he deals with this master strife-causer.

I think there will be pressure on Zelensky to accept.

Noga Tarnopolsky @NTarnopolsky
^38% of Israelis say a capped number of Ukrainian refugees should be let into the country. (About 3000 have entered the country thus far.)
30% oppose opening the country to Ukrainian refugees. 20% want all Ukrainian refugees allowed in.^

The UK won't let in refugees for 'Security Reasons'

Which obviously the Israelis who are well know for being totally relaxed about security have let in 3000 refugees...

I would not accept. How can Ukraine ever trust anything that Russia promises again.

Government staff arrived in Calais within the last 4 hours. Or someone's lying.

Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
Priti Patel says UK has "staff in Calais" to process refugees and it's "absolutely wrong" that they're being turned away.

But Downing Street told us four hours ago there was not yet any processing centre there.

Which do we think it is?

It will take him some years to get back to a position where Russia is stronger, but he -will- try again. If not the Ukraine, something else.

I get where you are coming from but the guy is 70 and he looks like shit. I don't think he "some years" left in him.

I don't know if this has already been mentioned but reputable journalists are reporting that Putin is going to send Syrian troops, experienced in urban warfare, into Ukraine, and that some Syrian troops have already been seen gathering in Russia. It's a sign that the war isn't going well for him but also a sign that he's prepared to escalate. Who would have thought we'd have Assad's troops fighting in Europe?

Ukraine will never trust Russia again, nor should they. Russia is just proposing this deal to buy time and extricate themselves from a very bad military position.

I agree. I wouldn't trust Russia one bit. The justification for the current invasion was based on lies so even if Ukraine agrees to the demands and the matter is settled for the time being, Russia will regroup, bide it's time and be back for more. With Russia as your neighbour I think NATO membership is more important than EU membership for Ukraine. I can see that agreeing to the second and third demands may be the least worst option but I don't think Ukraine will agree to the first.

Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent

As in both Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but which I thought the separatist bits were only a small portion of the whole region? What happens to those Ukrainians living there that want to remain Ukrainian? Tough luck I suppose. If only Ukraine could believe or trust anything that Russia/Putin says.

It really is hard to see how any of this is tractable or has a solution just because of the absolute unreliability of anything Putin says.

It says on Twitter that there are more conditions than those mentioned
4 Zelensky to remain as President but Boikov appointed by Russia as Prime minister
Ukraine must cease military action.
We have seen how trustworthy the Russians are, as straight as a pretzel

Time is on Ukraine's side right now. I don't see them giving into Russia's demands when they might actually hold out on the field.

Good thread here on why the war is probably unwinnable for Russia:

twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500740225831735296?s=20&t=NVOrOEJGl-bfR60llCEGBQ

I'm only an armchair commentator on this, but I really can't see the Ukrainians agreeing to these terms. But I suppose that's the point - it is an opening statement, not the end of negotiations.

Pippa Crerar @PippaCrerar
Home Sec says figure of just 50 Ukrainian refugees being granted permission to enter UK are "absolutely inaccurate" and first figures will be published tonight.

Home Office obviously getting their arses kicked following a major PR disaster. I guess they have been busy today actually doing some work (How long does it take on the Eurostar to Calais again?)

I look forward to see the figure being in the 'tens of thousands'...

@bappymonday

What is day to day life like for people left in Ukraine? Are they staying home : shelter all day or do they still go to work? Are the shops still open? How do they get supplies? Are the shops being replenished or will they just run out eventually?

There was an amazing lady on Sky News this morning explaining how they were living at the moment, it looked a bit like lockdown.

The streets were completely empty and deserted. A couple of shops had very limited opening times. Other than that those who were staying put seemed to be staying at home, in a basement if they had one or if not away from windows which they had blocked up as much as possible with things like mattresses.

She was incredibly brave, it looked terrifying, very much like they were just hiding and waiting for something to happen. I got the impression that workplaces and schools etc were closed. What they are doing for money I don't know. Awful.

@FacebookPhotos

I'm only an armchair commentator on this, but I really can't see the Ukrainians agreeing to these terms. But I suppose that's the point - it is an opening statement, not the end of negotiations.

Ukraine is a democracy. Prime ministers are elected, not appointed in democracies.

That one is never going to wash because its a surrender of sovereignty, like the original Putin demands just expressed in a different way (which will perhaps target idiots in the West who don't understand why this is so unreasonable).

This is the exact same demands, just polished up a bit. Nothing new.

Does anyone have a link for Russia's demands?

It all just feels so hopeless at the moment. I feel so helpless.

Home Office obviously getting their arses kicked following a major PR disaster

Yes. And Liz Truss has just had her arse handed to her on a plate in front of the Foreign Affairs Committe as she tried to blame Patel on visa holdups and the famous '50'.

That didn't work. She was told she was 'passing the buck'

twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1500850611591561217

Do you have any idea how many children are in hostels in the UK because we do not have any houses?

We have children in hostels in this country for the same reason we have people needing foodbanks. The government don't give a shit. They point at "outsiders" to avoid having to actually do something about the problem. And people fall for it, every time. It is depressing.

@FacebookPhotos

Do you have any idea how many children are in hostels in the UK because we do not have any houses?

We have children in hostels in this country for the same reason we have people needing foodbanks. The government don't give a shit. They point at "outsiders" to avoid having to actually do something about the problem. And people fall for it, every time. It is depressing.

www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-many-homeless-families-holiday-6630531 Cornwall has as many homeless families as holiday lets

Nuff said.

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot

Priti Patel says refugee situation is a “rapidly moving situation” and says new figures will come this evening. “The figures that have been publicised are absolutely inaccurate and they have not been assured by the home office.”
She says the scheme is “the first of its kind in the world” (??) and says that it has already had 14,000 applications.

Kremlin spokesperson being quoted as saying the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot.

Do they believe their own lies?

Also make amendments to their constitution which would reject any aims to enter any bloc.

That suggests it’s about not joining the EU as well as not applying to join NATO. No way Ukraine can agree to that.

She says the scheme is “the first of its kind in the world” (??) and says that it has already had 14,000 applications

I cannot tell you how much PPatel gets on my nerves. Can't stand the woman.

Three times today she has talked of 14,000 applications or thereabouts.
Applications are irrelevant.
It's issued visas that's important.