Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

@BirdOnTheWire

I do think when we take more people from Ukraine there need to be awareness that they need jobs and places to live, so support in every day people’s lives. They are almost all women with children so unless there is childcare as well they won't be able to work. I'm not sure how this works now but when I used to work in a related field (asylum seekers) they were not permitted to work? It always seemed pointless to meif they were able to work.

This interests me...how many of these women are childcare workers? Teachers? Have medical qualifications? The skills will be there for them to help with staffing the services they would be using if childcare was in place. A logistical nightmare to sort it all out obviously but seeing how it could all work to mutual benefit makes it all the more frustrating to watch the government drag its feet.

Thanks for these threads, I've been lurking from the start and am finding them really informative.

And there is also Ben Elliot, Tory Chief, who is facing new questions over his firm's links with Russia.

@vera99 if things are going as badly as we hope for the Russian military Putin is going to be looking for scapegoats and that is going to be very uncomfortable for army and airforce leaders. Maybe self preservation will push one or more into action to remove Putin. Unless, of course, he takes action against them first.

[quote GallopingHighRoad]@RedToothBrush

There is no evidence they have used up all their ammunition. The light artillery pieces, had they ran out of ammunition, would not have been abandoned for that reason. At the very least we would see piles of empty shell cases. You don't leave guns - google "Saving The Guns". This equipment has been abandoned not destroyed.[/quote]
Agreed.

I think if the Russian tank crews are out of anything it’s food, warmth and ultimately morale..I don’t think any of the tank crews (particularly “up north”) have seen enough action to be out of ammunition,

@Iknowitisheresomewhere

I have been thinking a lot about the refugee issue - just some musings here:

Many many people would be happy to open their homes. That works for days/weeks, maybe months. It does not work for years. And therefore anyone thinking seriously about doing has to trust the government that they will provide the infrastructure that is needed - school places, doctors etc. What would happen if the arrangement 'broke down' (death or serious illness of the UK host or their family, violence from one party to another, redundancy meaning the host had to move house) etc etc etc

Some people will use this to exploit people. Think modern slavery/child abuse etc. There has to be something to deter this because it is no use saying 'it won't happen in the majority of cases'. It will happen to some people so we need a system to document everyone and where they are.

Second homes - empty houses etc - there is currently an empty house in my sisters wider family due to a recent death. I am nearly certain it would not meet current requirements for letting out (electricity checks etc). Should she be able to offer it? For how long would she be exempt from such checks? Sadly for every 'this is how we do it' I can come across a 'and this would be exploited in such and such a way'.
When you are talking millions of people I am confident that the overall good outweighs the risks of significant exploitation in the short term. But the smaller the number (as will be the case in the UK) and the longer the time required, the more regulation is needed to protect the people you are trying to help.

I have come to the conclusion that for me personally, I would gladly house someone/a family for up to 3 months. But longer than that I would have major concerns for a variety of reasons. And I don't (yet) trust our government that anything would be sorted quickly. So at the moment I am just giving money. And writing to my MP. And feeling helpless/guilty.

All of those things are a risk for Ukrainians in the rest of Europe regardless.

Saying we need to make ridiculous checks isn't helping that situation. If we had our scheme at least announced our refugee agencies based in the uk could start making some plans and contingencies here even if people don't come immediately.

Spreading the load as it were means people fleeing aren't making such desperate choices when they arrive somewhere.

If you are turning up in krakow where im guessing there probably no rooms anywhere, if you have somewhere organised to go in any capacity its a better option that just an offer on the internet or off the street which will be happening.

Thinking about it from the point of view of refugees first would be a good start.

I am under no illusions of the stresses and strains this will involve if you take people in as an emergency measure. But that gives you time further down the line to work out for breakdowns etc.

Right now there's nothing. Anywhere. Documentation is a pipe dream in this sense.

Better we move faster than allow desparate dictate destination.

Don't know if this was posted.

Video: Angry Russian mothers confront a regional governor and accuse Kremlin of lying and of sending their sons as canon fodder

thread
mobile.twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1500769632768118788

"In the video, Sergey Tsivilev, governor of the Kuzbass region in Siberia, stood forlornly on a stage in a school gym as angry soldiers' mothers accused the Kremlin of lying.

"We were all deceived, all deceived. They were sent there as cannon fodder, "one woman shouted. "They are young. They were unprepared."

As Mr Tsivilev, shuffling and mumbling, tried to frame Putin's invasion of Ukraine as a "special operation" and not a war, he was shouted down.

"This is a special operation and, at the moment, nobody can give comments about the special operation," he said. "These guys were used..."

"Used!" One mother interrupted. "So our children were used?"
"

“The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine:
-Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU.
-Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
-Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.”

Well finally something concrete.

No expert whatsoever but I think I would accept if is supported by an international treaty undertaking by Russia to not invade or encroach on remaining Ukrainian territory indefinitely nor to influence any politics or democratic elections. Plus an undertaking to pay towards rebuilding the country.
Even if Ukraine cannot join EU/NATO can remaining international organisations help rebuild and reinforce Ukrainian military? Or is that dangerous from a Western point of view? Can a neutral country also have its own powerful military?

@DuncinToffee

And there is also Ben Elliot, Tory Chief, who is facing new questions over his firm's links with Russia.

Are you not grateful that these hugely successful business men are willing to give a part of their time to play at running the country?

Re simple stuff about sponsorship. For example letting people know that they will need a dbs via a refugee agency or similar would be a starter. The dbs service already has major delays on it. DH recently had one renewed and it took longer than normal. Just ball rolling stuff - at both ends rather than full on matching up people would be a start...

Kremlin's propaganda media
@Reuters
, just deleted this tweet. It promoted a fake video claiming to show Russian armour in "Kyiv region." But no snow in Kyiv region. Shamefully #Reuters is affiliated with Russian state media Tass News Agency, hence their fake news output for Putin

mobile.twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1500835787893575683

Does this mean we can't trust Reuters as a source??

" Ukrainian forces have retaken Mykolaiv airport, according to regional governor Vitaliy Kim. "

Marking place

@HeadPain

" Ukrainian forces have retaken Mykolaiv airport, according to regional governor Vitaliy Kim. "

Looking at the maps the airport is on the northern edge of the town ie on the side that is furthest from Russian control.

Presumably the bridges in Mykolaiv are strategically particularly important as they would open the road to Odessa to the Russians.

@peridito
The 1997 NATO - Russia Founding Act says:
NATO and Russia affirm their shared desire to achieve greater stability and security in the Euro-Atlantic area... The member States of NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO's nuclear posture or nuclear policy - and do not foresee any future need to do so.
And that NATO and Russia both have:
respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security, the inviolability of borders and peoples' right of self-determination as enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE documents..

Both NATO and Russia signed this document which is still in force today - Russia never terminated it. It clearly contemplates that more countries would join NATO. Russia had second thoughts about that later, but can't say that they were promised that it wouldn't happen. They seem to have an honest but I think mistaken belief that NATO threatens them. Russia has an army of about 900 000 soldiers. NATO keeps forces of a few thousand soldiers facing Russia.

workisnotawolf I can see the temptation but who the hell are Russia to demand that Ukraine never join the EU? It's like they don't get that Ukraine is a country that can make its own decisions. How long is this ban meant to last?
NATO I can understand a bit more given Russian paranoia about it. But thanks to this invasion, Ukraine will now be twice as determined to join both.

What is day to day life like for people left in Ukraine? Are they staying home : shelter all day or do they still go to work? Are the shops still open? How do they get supplies? Are the shops being replenished or will they just run out eventually?

The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine:
-Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU.
-Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
-Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

Do you think Ukraine will accept this? I’m starting to think they should (don’t come at me!)

Instead we have a generic 6 point plan which looks as professional as a menu for a kid's birthday party.

I honestly thought it was a spoof.

As Red Toothbrush pointed out, they couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery unless it is a lockdown party .

Well the FTSE 100 has started to rally from this morning. Could be a coincidence but usually market predicts… I suspect there will be pressure on Zelensky to accept a deal.

@AgnesWestern

The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine: -Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU. -Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia. -Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

Do you think Ukraine will accept this? I’m starting to think they should (don’t come at me!)

Difficult to accept, but the continuing loss of life is a lot to bear

It could be the ‘off ramp’ for Russia if accepted by Ukraine

@AgnesWestern

The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine: -Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU. -Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia. -Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

Do you think Ukraine will accept this? I’m starting to think they should (don’t come at me!)

If that is Russia's starting position, I wonder which of them are areas where there is room for negotiation.

eg will Ukraine get EU but not Nato membership agreed for example.

By separatist regions do they mean the whole of the Donbass and Luhansk regions or just those parts that Russia had already occupied.

@AgnesWestern

The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine: -Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU. -Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia. -Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

Do you think Ukraine will accept this? I’m starting to think they should (don’t come at me!)

I await the publication of Ukraine's response with enormous interest. There will be something in it that puts Russia right on the spot.

They should demand to join the EU now.
We have to talk about nuclear disarmament if we want to survive on this planet. Absolutely atrocious way to live in such fear of annihilation.

I know this is wishful thinking!

@AgnesWestern

The Kremlin has announced its demands for ending the war in Ukraine: -Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won't join any "blocs", i.e. NATO + EU. -Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia. -Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

Do you think Ukraine will accept this? I’m starting to think they should (don’t come at me!)

I think I'd go for the 2 seperatist regions joing them, solves a headache they have had for 8 years. But supported that Russia help financially over a 5 year period that anyone wishing to leave can have support to do so to move in to Ukraine.

Crimea have it, I've still got port and sea access. Again a headache solved.

No NATO as long as Russia puts in its constitution to never to attack the Ukraine again.

I would however not allow and embargo on EU membership as this will effect economic growth and trade availability. It can opt out of the common defence like Denmark.

Russia must also be "billed" for the billions of pounds worth of damage it has done and a financial settlement must be met, payable again over ten years to re-build Ukraine.