Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

@jgw1 thank you, had missed the fact one of the main providers was removing service - makes much more sense.

I saw twitter footage of armed police manning the streets, trucks in a Russian city. In st petersherg a stop the war march.

He's terrified! He's cracking down on his people.

A twitter thread from Andrei Kozyrev, who was the Foreign Minister of Russia, 1990-1996. Member of the State Duma till 2000 according to his twitter bio and knew Putin:

Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
·
20m
Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.

To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.

Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
·
19m
To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:

1. Ukraine’s condition as a country
2. Russian military’s condition
3. The West’s geopolitical condition

Andrei V Kozyrev ***@andreivkozyrev*** · 18m

1. Ukraine’s condition. Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. Maidan ended any hope of keeping Ukraine independent and pro-Kremlin. He thought the West was behind it.

Andrei V Kozyrev ***@andreivkozyrev*** · 17m If Ukraine’s government cannot be kept independent and pro-Kremlin covertly, as he likely concluded, then he will overtly force it to be. He also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta. Perfect pretext to “de-Nazify” Ukraine. Andrei V Kozyrev ***@andreivkozyrev*** · 17m

1. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military

Andrei V Kozyrev ***@andreivkozyrev*** · 16m

1. The West. The Russian ruling elite believed its own propaganda that Pres. Biden is mentally inept. They also thought the EU was weak because of how toothless their sanctions were in 2014. And then the U.S. botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan, solidifying this narrative.

Andrei V Kozyrev ***@andreivkozyrev*** · 16m If you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine.

He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn’t make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral.
Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
·
15m
So, in my opinion, he is rational. Given that he is rational, I strongly believe he will not intentionally use nuclear weapons against the West. I say intentionally because indiscriminate shelling near a nuclear power plant can cause an unintentional nuclear disaster in Ukraine.
Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
·
15m
I will take it a step further. The threat of nuclear war is another example of his rationality. The Kremlin knows it can try to extract concessions, whether from Ukraine or the West, by saber-rattling its last remaining card in the deck: nuclear weapons.
Andrei V Kozyrev
@andreivkozyrev
·
6m
The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war.

I really hope those making the decisions keep a level head and are not swayed by the increasing move of public opinion into escalation.

The very thought of it is making me feel ill.

[quote alltheapples]@cakeorwine there are no stories coming out about captured Russians being badly treated. We really need to stick to facts.

There are stories coming out about Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian women.[/quote]
I didn't say there were.
I did say that is the kind of thing that could happen.
In war, if one side treats another's civillians badly, it's going to impact on the way captured POWS get treated.
RAF Bomber Command personnel got treated very badly by some German civillians.
If you are part of an army that is treating civillians in the way the Russians are and you get captured, you could be in for a hard time.

We are already under that threat. A nuclear power plant disaster won't just affect Ukraine!!

I've Heard good segments for team's to Go in to secure the nuclear site's

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep? It’s really impacting my mental health. I’ve had to ask my DP to stay off work with me today as I’m afraid of being alone at the moment. I know it’s ridiculous.

This

'The hacking collective #Anonymous hacked into the Russian streaming services Wink and Ivi (like Netflix) and live TV channels Russia 24, Channel One, Moscow 24 to broadcast war footage from Ukraine [today]'

The photo of the family shot down that is on the front page of the New York Times is devastating. Two young children, Mum, Dad, and little dog in a carrier. The two children and Mum dead, and Dad severely injured. Trying to flee.

This is absolutely devastating. How much longer can the world simply stand by and watch?!

@AgnesWestern

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep? It’s really impacting my mental health. I’ve had to ask my DP to stay off work with me today as I’m afraid of being alone at the moment. I know it’s ridiculous.

I am, I actually think I need to take a step back from this thread, well mumsnet in general, it’s impacting my work and I’m really dragging myself there today (when usually I love my job) but I also work in the military sector so it’s 24/7 news for me at the moment

If Russia disconnects from the global internet then I guess Anonymous won't be able to do anything more to them :(

On a light hearted note, its the first Monday of the month which means public warning test day, and they've had to remind everyone on the radio and in the newspapers that its just a test today, and not to panic and think its an actual attack (it sounds like an air raid siren). I can just imagine the Finnish version of mumsnet around midday today "AIBU to worry this isn't a test and its the real thing?"

@Natsku

If Russia disconnects from the global internet then I guess Anonymous won't be able to do anything more to them :(

On a light hearted note, its the first Monday of the month which means public warning test day, and they've had to remind everyone on the radio and in the newspapers that its just a test today, and not to panic and think its an actual attack (it sounds like an air raid siren). I can just imagine the Finnish version of mumsnet around midday today "AIBU to worry this isn't a test and its the real thing?"

There would be loads of threads on it and then someone would come along to say “do we have to have another of these threads, there is already four”

@bluewanda the "world" has stood by as countless children have been killed, injured, displaced and abused in multiple wars.

How do they intend to take it [Ukraine] with the soldiers he has?

If he takes the south and then Kyiv, Putin will gamble the rest of Ukraine will capitulate/surrender. Particularly if he takes Kyiv, presumably where it’s military operations are being directed. Plus, if they can get President Zelenesky, the psychological damage will be immense. True or not, he is symbolic of defiance against Putin and Russia.

So glad that Anonymous got footage on the tv screens to ordinary Russians. Though there isn’t v much that they can do about it. The Twitter video of Russian soldiers firing their rifles to scare the Russian protesters (and one actually shot) was horrific.

@bluewanda the world isn’t just sitting back and watching, they are providing weapons, sanctioning as much as they can. We don’t want to intervene physically because it could very possibly lead to ww3 and most likely nuclear war.

@AgnesWestern

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep? It’s really impacting my mental health. I’ve had to ask my DP to stay off work with me today as I’m afraid of being alone at the moment. I know it’s ridiculous.

With respect, you need to find ways to cope with this. You will; war has occurred throughout history and people find ways to get through. It's a shock to realise the world is wider, and more dangerous, than you realise as a child/teen. We've been very lucky in the West to live in a peaceful Europe for almost all adults alive now.

That unthinking faith in the stability of Europe is a very new thing. We have been very lucky, but it's time to take a deep breath, realise that life is not always stable, and concentrate on doing what you can to help the Ukrainians and to think about how to manage your anxiety.

Slow breathing, thinking about the good things, the little moments of pleasure, a certain reasonable amount of help for the Ukraine and taking some minutes per day for meditation helps. Also exercise and if you can, good sleep - if necessary ask the doc for some sleeping aids or take melatonin. Lack of sleep makes it much harder to handle anxiety and to think clearly.

You will get through this; it's a shock, the current situation, but we will get through. I don't believe WW3 is coming, I don't believe nukes will be used. Okay that's an article of faith, but I really think Putin intends to keep alive for a long time to come.

[quote AgnesWestern]@bluewanda the world isn’t just sitting back and watching, they are providing weapons, sanctioning as much as they can. We don’t want to intervene physically because it could very possibly lead to ww3 and most likely nuclear war.[/quote]
Agree with this

This sort of addresses this... Carole Cadwalladr. The war is through the internet too and Russia is lacking, thank god. Putin is losing the information war.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/social-media-turn-on-putin-the-past-master

Our media has for once not pulled any punches in showing the horrific consequences of bombs and the invasion in general on normal citizens. I do hope they will do the same for all future wars, and conflicts which are in more far off places where the casualties of war are not white. Not all warmongers are as clearly psychotic as Putin, but the effects of the weapons are just the same. Military intervention should only ever be the very last resort to an existential threat or a genocide that cannot be dealt with by any diplomatic means. And of course when you are on the receiving end of a war of aggression.

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep?

Honestly no. I feel saddened and concerned but it's not impacting my normal functioning beyond maybe being a bit distracted and checking for updates too much.

@AgnesWestern

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep? It’s really impacting my mental health. I’ve had to ask my DP to stay off work with me today as I’m afraid of being alone at the moment. I know it’s ridiculous.

No, and I really don't mean to be nasty here honestly, I don't, I'm just going to say it bluntly.

You need to step away from all of this for your own mental health, doomsday scrolling on the internet will effect your mental health. I would suggest you and your DP get out, do something and step away from the TV , the internet and enjoy your day.

There has always been a war even in modern memory somewhere in the world, Europe, Africa, The middle East. Unfortunately the cogs of the war machine never stop turning, hence why everyone has an armed forces.

Take a deep breath, take break and step back 💐

@Cam77 I think the media has always portrayed the horror of war, I have certainly seen images on MSN of all the conflicts over the years regardless of the skin colour of the people involved. How close we as a country geographically to those conflicts, seems to have as much bearing on how people respond as any other reason. Been alive for a while though, so maybe I remember more conflicts than others ?

Is anyone else struggling to eat and sleep? It’s really impacting my mental health. I’ve had to ask my DP to stay off work with me today as I’m afraid of being alone at the moment. I know it’s ridiculous

No. I watch and check a whole lot, my first thought when waking is ... I wonder what's happening in Ukraine. I'm spending too much of my day checking developments. But apart from that, absolutely not.

We are thousands of miles away and we are lucky.

Step back from the internet.

@AlecTrevelyan006 Fascinating thread from someone in the know like he says the corrupt oligarchs/generals have probably looted their military budgets creating a pretty dysfunctional military with failing equipment and canon fodder conscripts that have no appetite to fight.

The only question now is how deep is the appetite for Putin to further damage Ukraine and how does he back out of this if indeed he wants to ? The hope has to be for a palace coup but most commentators seem to be discounting this at least for now.

Back at home we seem to be lagging well behind Europe with effective sanctions and refugees. I wonder why? The oligarch's bungs to the Tories must mean favours are being called in as they get to divest assets in time to protect their wealth.

twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1500734461322969090

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Kozyrev