Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

Did anyone watch the Iprcress File earlier? Cold War drama remake.

@PestorPeston

If you think that The Hague are going to go after some Ukrainian farmer because he uploaded a video of making a downed pilot say something they shouldn't have, or are going to apply the law literally at a wider level to the Ukrainian goverment then I can say you are just nit picking for the sake of it, technically you are right, but The Hague will not persue it or even give a shit, there are far more videos out there that they will pour over.

No one is saying it isn't contravention of the law technically, just that trying to point it out is pointless as even the Hague understand the 'fog of war' concept better than those screaming that it is against the law.

Thank you @Branster I will do that!

@TheWayTheLightFalls

Checking in. Saw an Uzbek friend today, who reminded me that huge numbers of Uzbeks and Tajiks work as gastarbeiters in Russia - more than a quarter (!) of Tajikistan's GDP comes from Western Union and similar remittances into the country from Tajiks working in Russia (sometimes illegally). And with the rouble in freefall many are now heading home. Interesting to see what this will do to the Russian labour market - typically these workers will be taking roles on building sites etc. Unskilled labourers.

@TheWayTheLightFalls Hmmm now they is interesting and something I've not seen discussed anywhere else.

Makes complete sense though, why would you stay?

Probably been posted, but Russia is looking to cut itself off from the wider internet, it's been muted for years and there has been obvious signs they have been prepping for it as well, (involved in global cyber sec) they could move over to the Chinese red firewall or just cut itself off completely.

It is a rumour and not verified but the chatter has been ramping up in circles I am involved with, here is a public tweet

twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500553480548892679

It isn't verfied of course, because simply, it won't until/if it happens.

[quote elephantmarchingin]@MissConductUS the link you posted mentions nothing about planes? [/quote]
Sorry, I don't know how I messed that up.

theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010733/ukraine-says-its-pilots-are-in-poland-picking-up-donated-mig-29-fighter

My feeling on the POW debate is simply this:

If you think Russian atrocities should go to the Hague don't retweet or otherwise share any footage that you think my contravene the Geneva Convention. No matter how you think the content is important or its not significant in the scheme of things.

Why?

Well for starters we really don't know if they are there under unduress or threat. Its a warzone. Feelings are running high. They may well be at real risk.

But perhaps more significantly because it gives licence for future scenarios where Ukrainian (or others - potentially British) to be paraded on tv under the justification that thats what the West did.

Our hypocrisy potentially endangers people in the future on this. There is every chance that these prisoners will be there under duress and will have be tortured/ mistreated. And as we've seen from the large amount of whatabouttery it also matters on a domestic level.

Its a really tempting and seemingly innocent thing to do. Especially if the person has had some sort of Road to Damascus moment and its really heart-warming / uplifting to see.

Unfortunately its not a no cost exercise. It carries a real risk. Its frustrating when even national newspapers are doing it (i thoroughly believe that newspapers have over stepped the mark on numerous occasions in putting various content from social media on their website and in print - which may endanger, because the revenue it drove was more important that a national interest / security matter)

Please take this seriously, rather than dismissing it as somehow a 'minor thing' because The Hague aren't going to go after you. That isn't the point or the risk.

Its the unintended consequences which give license to regimes that dont respect this part and perhaps more significant parts of the Geneva Convention thats far more pertinent here.

It is not ok to repost / share those videos further, even if they are already all over social media. Dont be part of the problem.

I know lots of people seem to think Putin won’t stop at Ukraine and he’ll be the next Hitler. But I don’t think he will try and attack other countries because he’s already under limited finance due to the sanctions. He also seemingly thought he could just walk into Ukraine and take it within 48 hours. He’s now realised that hasn’t happened, so I may be being naive, but I don’t personally think he’ll try and invade any others. His main aim is Ukraine. People seem to use the logic of “well he’ll be invading another country soon so we may as well start world war three” but I don’t agree at all.

I don't think he'll attack other countries he has too much going on in Ukraine. It's concerning what's going on in the nuclear power plants, the Ukrainian teams are working inside but under control of the Russian army. The difficulty is getting the shift changes to take place so it's the same team working in there and sleeping on floors and tables. They must be exhausted.

I also take comfort in the fact that last Sunday I was petrified as he had put his nuclear weapons on high alert. But a week later and we’ll still here. Surely if he just wanted to do it then he would.

Yes the potential spillover effects could be quite serious. Tajikistan is a very fragile country and it's long been thought that a crisis that cut off labour remittances from Russia could be destabilising enough to make the country fall apart, which is not what you want just north of Afghanistan.

I know this must seem tangential to people but it's very possible this war could indirectly lead to worsening conflicts in other places too.

@MissConductUS it's from the 1 March so outdated

Pmk for bedtime

@tkwal

Am I the only one who watches the violence being inflicted on Ukraine and feels frustrated that we/nato haven't lifted a finger as yet ? We can sanction Russian Billionaires til the cows come home but they will have had the foresight to stash money in tax havens around the world. Putin doesn't care about his personal wealth , only power. He has already shown he is willing to weaponise atomic power stations what's to stop him using atomic missiles when he realises the Ukranian people and army are humiliating his troops ? Would we really want to be in the same position? Would it comfort us to be told that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and no , we won't grant a no-fly zone yet because ....we'll I'm not sure how the UN has managed to rationalise that. I despair for all our futures

What do you suggest we do? We/nato and others, are hitting where we can via sanctions, and sending what help we can in the why of ordinance/weapons, taking in refugees, providing what aid we can, helping by provision of surveillance and the rest

There is nothing more wecan do, without enraging the madman further and potentially starting ww3

Sadly POWs have been used for propaganda purposes. I am sure people remember the Gulf war pilots who were shot down over Iraq and who appeared on TV having been beaten up.

During Vietnam, US pilots were forced to denounce the USA on TV.

In WW2, captured US Rangers were paraded through Rome as 'prizes' to show off to the world.

I know the anger people felt seeing British POWs on TV and it only drove the anger. POWs should not be used for propaganda purposes. They should be treated under the rules of the Geneva Convention. In war, POWs haven't always been treated that way. It's easy to say that from the comfort of an arm chair.

Unfortunately, it's click bait material to the media and no doubt generates hits on social media.

I was looking at Ukraine on the map in detail. How do they intend to take it with the soldiers he has?

It's a massive country. As big as France and Germany combined. I don't know if he intends to move up and try to surround Kyiv - but I wonder what Ukrainian forces are waiting in the West of the country. The river system makes things interesting - and there are a lot of big cities between Kyiv and the South of the country.

It is going to be very slow progress - and are there enough troops to fight, occupy and resupply.

@elephantmarchingin

I was going to point out the same, 5 days in war means a lot also The Week is a notorious war hawk publication as well so its best to base it on a kernal of truth somewhere in the article somewhere, people are not really understanding the geopolitical aspect of Poland acceptiing aircraft, Ukrain win or lose, Poland has neighbours that mean it is at the forefront of the next cold war

@TheSillyMastiff

Russian occupiers rape women in Kherson. The girls are asked to stay at home and not go outside This was reported to "Rubrics" by locals.

There are currently 11 confirmed cases of rape by the Russian occupiers in Kherson. According to the doctor of the Karabelesh polyclinic, five of the victims survived.

Locals spread messages for women and girls of the city - do not leave the house at all.

We will remind that invaders entered the city on March 1.

Source: Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group.

Again I can not 100% verify this, but statistics on violence against women are starting to filter through many channels, awaiting a UN Women's report which will soon follow in the coming weeks.

That’s 11 too many.

I’ll never understand how anyone could do that, let alone when the people in Ukraine are already being put through such an ordeal. I really hope karma or something similar exists and that the men putting these women through such atrocities suffer tenfold!

I completely agree with redtoothbrush regarding POW videos. I’ve no interest in or intention of watching / retweeting / amplifying. Regardless of the “fog of war” which may apply to civilian Ukrainians making the videos, I’m not in their position. I’m in the UK, pretty safe. I don’t think it’s okay for civilians (or anyone else for that matter) to ignore the Geneva convention. It exists because we decided that ethics do still exist in war, and I don’t think it’s okay to just ignore the morality of it because some other people, in a war torn country, are ignoring it. This isn’t just academic, our own ethics are being tested here. Do we agree with the ideals of the Geneva convention, or do we decide that the rules are simply guidelines which can be ignored when the other side are doing worse?

Besides the ethics of it, I don’t trust the veracity. What would I say if I were captured by the opposing side as a POW? Basically anything to stay alive. If I were a Ukrainian civilian, which videos would I choose to upload? The ones which show that ordinary Russian soldiers aren’t happy with their task. So even if these are genuine Russian soldiers, what is being broadcast should be taken with a hefty dose of salt.

FWIW, my grandfather knew several POW during WWII (farming family) and I’ve read letters sent to him once the POW had returned home after the war. My grandad was a child at the time (so his memory may not be the whole story) but from the letters received I am absolutely certain that it is possible to treat POW with dignity and respect.

@dreamingbohemian

Yes the potential spillover effects could be quite serious. Tajikistan is a very fragile country and it's long been thought that a crisis that cut off labour remittances from Russia could be destabilising enough to make the country fall apart, which is not what you want just north of Afghanistan.

I know this must seem tangential to people but it's very possible this war could indirectly lead to worsening conflicts in other places too.

I don’t buy that. Yes, the reliance on export remittances is highly skewed (30%), but I don’t see the explicit link to regional conflict eg with Afghanistan. Where is the nexus?

I will add a contrian point to RTB post as why do need the posts the cause issue

The internet was largely herald as a proper voice to the people, government overreach onto the internet is a bad thing and a slippery slope, if people should think about breaking a law for sharing a video things then we are already getting into a sitation of massaged media that we are 'allowed' to consume.

People should be more concerned about restrictions of online comments/restrictions rather than someone breaking them, the internet was made for everyone to have a voice and some of those voices are not what some want to hear, but to try and stiffle or ask peop,e to self police is not why the internet was created or why the western media/people are getting information about this war.

If we was to apply it litterally we wouldn't be getting half the footage out of Ukraine that even the BBC has run headlines on, the internet should be free and anyone sying they shouldn't be uploading/rewteeting x or y is trying to control it.

The way occupiers treat civillians and how POWs are treated is so important. The stories of rape from occupied cities are awful - and any Russian soldiers who get captured by Ukrainians are going to be facing reprisals by the people who capture them.

During WW2, SS soldiers murdered 84 US POWs in cold blood during the Battle of the Bulge. There were survivors, stories got back to the US army and this made them vengeful. Captured SS soldiers were shot in reprisal.

I can imagine the Geneva convention and the way POWS are treated will go out the window when Russians are raping women, razing cities to the ground and murdering civillians.

if people should think about breaking a law for sharing a video things then we are already getting into a sitation of massaged media that we are 'allowed' to consume.

Does that hold for sharing videos of child abuse? I presume not, no reasonable person would. If the act itself is a crime then sharing the video of it is likely to be fundamentally wrong and potentially a crime too. There is media we are not ‘allowed’ to consume. We need to be very careful in what we decide is illegal sharing/communication, but to campaign for “anything goes on the internet” is amoral.

@GallopingHighRoad The nexus is that they share a long border and several decades of cross-border links between wars and insurgencies in both countries. It's a bit off topic for this thread but the implosion of Tajikistan would definitely impact Afghanistan as well as Russia's posture in the region (they have key bases there).