Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

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That POW video doesn't quite ring true somehow for being a Russian PoW. I've no doubt the man is not forced into it, but something seems off.

I wonder if it's a captured separatist or a Ukrainian Russian who's had a strong change of heart?

Yy re being specific requested it's odd because apparently they're are more dangerous to those using them?
Maybe who does they shopping lists is old fashioned?

I've just spent an hour watching the final of the Great Pottery Throw down. It was absolutely lovely.

I've been following developments in Ukraine day & night and am utterly horrified by all that is happening.

I'd really urge some on this thread to make sure that you have balance. Yes, follow the news, but make sure you're carrying on with your life as well.

I know that the poor, poor people in Ukraine don't have the option. But whilst we're in the so very fortunate position that we do, please dip in and out of these threads, and the news, and only involve yourself as much as your mental health will allow.

Unfortunately there's absolutely nothing that we can do to influence the outcome, but we can influence our own response. 🇺🇦

[quote vera99]@BigHuff you are more than a sceptic than me but right to be so. It's a great piece of Ukrainian social media propaganda though if that is what it is. He seemed very poetic and spiritual for a grunt soldier but his lack of dentistry makes me think he isn't an actor.[/quote]
..it may be but as was mentioned upthread arguably (or perhaps not) the POW videos are yet another breach of the supposed rules of war, this time the “Geneva Convention relative to the treatment of Prisoners of War..”.specifically Article 13:

“prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.”

I agree that appears to be small beer and trivial compared with some of the atrocities that seem to have gone on but I think it’s something to be aware of when seeing these images.

The videos are made by Ukrainian civilians. I doubt the Geneva Convention applies.

[quote vera99]Jackie Singh 🇺🇦 🇺🇸@hackingbutlegalThis, out of #Ukraine, is 100% one of the most incredible videos I have ever seen.

This Russian POW has the heart of a lion

An amazing confession from a Russian POW listening to this is worth ten minutes of your attention.

twitter.com/hackingbutlegal/status/1500465032966062082[/quote]
Yes, the Russian POW looked and sounded pretty sincere to me.

To all those who are panicking about nuclear war, I really think it's important to try and step away from the news a bit. America (which poses by far the biggest nuclear threat to Russia) has handled the sabre rattling really responsibly by not upgrading its own alertness level and cancelling scheduled missile tests.

Putin has become a sort of bogeyman in the minds of many, but I think it's getting very carried away to think that his end game is just wiping everyone off the face of the earth. Who knows exactly what his end game is, but it's clearly to be very powerful and retake territory that he sees as his. He cannot be powerful in a world that doesn't exist. Even really nasty people have a survival instinct. We've seen this type of sabre rattling from various leaders over the years, including ones where the person cultivates an image of being unhinged to scare people. Yet nuclear war has not broken out.

Gosh I hope so. I think it's the fact everyone says how unhinged, unpredictable and dangerous Putin is, that he'll literally do whatever he wishes to do regardless of consequences.

It isn't just up to him, though. There are checks and balances in place in the launch of a nuclear weapon and they involve the compliance of other people. Other people who probably aren't suicidal and who probably have families and friends and lives they want to continue. Those checks and balances have averted nuclear action in the past.

Google the Madman Theory. It's convenient for Putin if we're all terrified of him and believe him to be unhinged enough to launch a strategic nuclear weapon. I don't personally think he is mad, he's cruel and evidently places a lower value on the lives of others than most of us would, yes, but I also think he's extremely calculating and MAD wouldn't bring him the end goal he is after. The risk of them launching tactical nukes as part of an 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy is greater than that of them launching strategic nukes, which would end in MAD. We're not all in imminent danger of being vaporised and there's a lot of layers of escalation that would need to happen for us to get there.

It's OK to be worried, but worrying also won't change anything. None of us really know how this will play out, but MAD is only one of a wide range of possible outcomes and it's the one that benefits no one, least of all Putin, so logically speaking, it's also an unlikely outcome.

The constant sabre rattling and reminders about Russian retaliation to sanctions etc. are deliberate. They want us to be frightened and they're keeping the threats just vague enough that they know the public mind will always go back to the nuclear option they put on the table.

Am I the only one who watches the violence being inflicted on Ukraine and feels frustrated that we/nato haven't lifted a finger as yet ? We can sanction Russian Billionaires til the cows come home but they will have had the foresight to stash money in tax havens around the world. Putin doesn't care about his personal wealth , only power. He has already shown he is willing to weaponise atomic power stations what's to stop him using atomic missiles when he realises the Ukranian people and army are humiliating his troops ? Would we really want to be in the same position? Would it comfort us to be told that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and no , we won't grant a no-fly zone yet because ....we'll I'm not sure how the UN has managed to rationalise that. I despair for all our futures

@alltheapples those civilians are fighting for Ukraine. The Geneva convention applies. Ignorance of the law is not an excuse. Unless you feel that rape is just dandy in a war situation.
There are rules for a reason.

Re. refugees.

One of the very very few actual concrete policies with some popular backing that the last decade of Tory rule has enacted is the reduction in the overall net annual immigration figures...
Then, as a one off gesture (and perhaps to keep GDP up + House prices up) they decided to let in 500,000 (?) people from Hong Kong over the next few years. But now, another potential 100,000 (?) refugees.

In a nutshell - the Tories have offered the average British Joe Bloggs nothing the last decade. But they have, to an extent, tried and been successful at getting net immigration (“the Brexit Issue”) down. That explains their stance here I believe.

@Tigersonvaseline

Yy re being specific requested it's odd because apparently they're are more dangerous to those using them? Maybe who does they shopping lists is old fashioned?

I assume you are referring to the SAM-7s (Strelas)?

Objectively there would appear to be a chance they are risky to fire and the antiquated seeker heads might not be very effective …so the worry for the user would be is the thing going to leave the tube at all, blow up in his/her face as it does so and even if it does fly will it guide?

I can only assume that if the Ukrainian request was genuine they basically said send anything you can, even if time expired and we will accept the associated risks.

I switch from being quite calm (as much as possible with this awful situation) and having moments of complete terror. The nights are what get me the most: my anxiety takes over and I am scared of nuclear attack. I live in the blast radius of London/ fallout zone.

As PP mentioned, I do feel like Putin has singled us out in some of his comments about the U.K. Do we have any proof that he has been threatening and singling out other countries in this way too? Where are people getting their other information from please? I understand U.K. media would focus on news about us specifically but I am curious whether we truly are being singled out or this is media bias.

[quote vera99]@BigHuff you are more than a sceptic than me but right to be so. It's a great piece of Ukrainian social media propaganda though if that is what it is. He seemed very poetic and spiritual for a grunt soldier but his lack of dentistry makes me think he isn't an actor.[/quote]
WW1 Soldiers were great poets and thinkers.
Siegfried Sassoon &c.
Not all soldiers are unthinking, unspiritual 'Grunts'
''All Quiet on the Western Front'' was also a wonderful book written by a German soldier about the futility of War.

@tkwal

Am I the only one who watches the violence being inflicted on Ukraine and feels frustrated that we/nato haven't lifted a finger as yet ? We can sanction Russian Billionaires til the cows come home but they will have had the foresight to stash money in tax havens around the world. Putin doesn't care about his personal wealth , only power. He has already shown he is willing to weaponise atomic power stations what's to stop him using atomic missiles when he realises the Ukranian people and army are humiliating his troops ? Would we really want to be in the same position? Would it comfort us to be told that diplomatic efforts are ongoing and no , we won't grant a no-fly zone yet because ....we'll I'm not sure how the UN has managed to rationalise that. I despair for all our futures

Because the fall out from implementing a no fly zone will doom many more people than it saves

I highly highly doubt things will turn nuclear. I think it’s too far unlikely, however I am hugely hugely concerned this could end in world war 3. Whatever the outcome in Ukraine - putin wins and therefore gets confirmation that he is unstoppable, or he looses in which case he blames nato for supplying the weapons to help Ukraine - he is not suddenly going to forget the crippling economic sanctions we have put his country into. He will want revenge for that. Since we’ve already pissed him off and his army is currently distracted fighting Ukraine, I don’t see why we don’t take all natos strength and just go and help out.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@PestorPeston I have looked at a map, I get why Crimea is so important strategically for the Russians. What do the land based Ukrainian forces have to combat the long range capabilities of the Russian navy from bombarding their southern cities ? Or do you think the Russian Navy hasn't really got involved yet ?[/quote]
No idea, my background is in prototype development. So I have a wide but shallow knowledge.

[quote PestorPeston]@alltheapples those civilians are fighting for Ukraine. The Geneva convention applies. Ignorance of the law is not an excuse. Unless you feel that rape is just dandy in a war situation.
There are rules for a reason.[/quote]
Yes, those civilians are fighting. And the only rapes happening is of Ukrainian women by Russian soldiers.

ISW are source of maps the BBC are using.

ISW @TheStudyofWar
#Russian forces spent the past 24 hours largely regrouping and preparing to renew offensive operations around #Kyiv, #Kharkiv, and #Mykolayiv. Read the latest update from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6
More detailed version of the above

But a relatively 'quiet' day all things considered.

I think it's the fact everyone says how unhinged, unpredictable and dangerous Putin is, that he'll literally do whatever he wishes to do regardless of consequences. He isn't afraid of anything. There's rumours he's got a terminal illness, and is planning on going out 'with a bang'. Again, it's only rumours at the moment, but surely he knows he's not going to be able to live normally again after this so wont be phased by any punishments etc, what if he decides to just take us all with him

For your own sake, and your children's, you need to notice how much of what's driving your anxiety is (as you say) rumour. More than that, it's misinformed. There are links on these threads to a wealth of articles directly and indirectly discussing Putin's motives, written by well-informed and very experienced commentators. They offer more than cold comfort, they carefully disentangle what is driving Putin's behaviour, and the impression I'm left with is that he doesn't intend to wage nuclear war on Europe or anywhere else. It would take a great deal of provocation to change his mind, however the media might make it look, and despite his own apparent taunting.

If I'm wrong, you'll barely have time to notice, and neither will your kids. But what you need to focus on is weighing up the likelihood that it will ever come to that, which is extremely slim. So get on with the life you're so afraid of losing, keep things as level as possible for your children, and if you can, do something to help the plight of displaced Ukrainian people. Even just quietly wishing them peace is better for your mental health than keeping replaying fearful scenarios of doom in your head. From what I can make out, the war Putin has started is highly unlikely to develop into nuclear conflict, but it probably won't be over for quite some time regardless, and your best hope is to learn to live with that and don't let him take up residence inside your head. That's part of the weaponry he is prepared to use, but it only works if you let it. I know, because I'm prone to destabilising anxiety myself, and I've had to rapidly work on it this last week to stop it dragging me down. You can too. Get on with your life, keep things normal for your kids - sending them to school will take some of the pressure off you.

www.theguardian.com/society/2022/mar/05/be-open-be-honest-and-listen-how-to-talk-to-children-about-ukraine

I am so torn on my views. During the day I easily rationalise all the reasons why this won’t turn nuclear. I can go about my day fairly unaffected for most part, except when I see the news and exactly what the poor people in Ukraine are dealing with. But at night, the fear of nuclear war haunts me and prevents me from getting a good night’s sleep.

Seeing the footage of civilians being targeted on the news it's clear no Russian soldier should be able to argue they didn't know what they were doing or they were just following orders.

Like it or not, this is a proxy war being fought with Ukraine as its locus. I can't tell whether Putin realises he's made a major fuck-up and feels his only option is to act as scary as possible, or whether he's priming the stage for some manufactured excuse to spread this to other countries. I fear the latter. I hope there are some sane higher-ups in Russia who just won't go along with him.

" POWs must be treated humanely in all circumstances. They are protected against any act of violence, as well as against intimidation, insults, and public curiosity. "

From www.icrc.org/en/doc/war-and-law/protected-persons/prisoners-war/overview-detainees-protected-persons.htm

Some of the mobile phone videos of emotional, hungry, tired young conscripts do count as curiosity, I agree, and those guys could not have consented to the sharing of their distress on the internet. However the press conference looks a lot more like the three captured Russians were fully aware of it being a broadcast and wanted to get their message across. They highlight how they have been looked after in hospital. I'm no lawyer but I doubt that video is high on the list for The Hague to take into account.