Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

I can't see how Putin has any good option now with Ukraine, I'd be very surprised if he didn't regret this. Anyway, I think the solution to this and the most powerful player is actually the Russian people.

@Kendodd

This seems to be Putins first major misjudgement, everything had been going so well for him until now especially his disinformation and troll factories (is this true and how powerful have they been?). Anyway, why has he mis stepped now? I have heard stories about his health, is that a factor?

To be totally honest, while the misstep is a big aspect, I think part of what it happening is pretty unprecedented and couldn't be predicted. NATO and European countries have been weak on defence and non interventionalist for a decade now. The red line was Syria and was Crimea. Both of these should have been red lines and weren't. Then he took another chunk of Ukraine, and that wasn't a red line. Him invading Ukraine properly woke people up, but I think what really inspired such a strong reaction was the strength of leadership and determination in fighting back, in particular through their great use of social media. This is backed by the incredibly large Ukrainian population abroad, who made this a major issue. So on that front Putin can (fairly enough) say why do you care suddenly, after years of telling me you don't?

BUT having said all that, the misjudgement was immense. He did seem to on one level believe his own propaganda, that Ukraine had no strong sense of separate statehood, that Ukraine would accept a puppet regime, that the government would fall in days and there would be little civilian unrest. It's no doubt in part due to ruling a country for so long where civil disobedience is stamped out, he doesn't understand how democracies work.

Another element: normally if states give weaponry to another country it's a fairly back door kind of thing. Zelensky has made this into almost a competition on twitter, mobilising Ukrainians to lobby globally.

On troll factories: it's going to be fascinating to see how social media changes two weeks from now when Russia can't afford to pay them. I saw a fascinating thread on twitter about how the pro-Putin hashtags are actually a small number of people plus bot machine, which is at least somewhat reassuring.

One thing to note about these that is interesting: sociologists have shown that people are far more likely to express views if they think they are shared or accepted by others. So bots also play a role in getting the extreme sorts out of the woodwork and happy to spout views.

@Kendodd

I can't see how Putin has any good option now with Ukraine, I'd be very surprised if he didn't regret this. Anyway, I think the solution to this and the most powerful player is actually the Russian people.

I think he more than regrets it already!!

While I would like to think the Russian population are the answer, unfortunately I think that might be too much to hope. From the videos I saw there were more people panic buying in IKEA before it closed then there were at most of the protests. I think there is a decent chance of changing some views but whether you can get people to do anything about it is another thing.

Yes Zelensky has been brilliant on this. I think Putin has finally met his match.
I'm glad this has spooked China as well (if I'm reading you right).

@Kendodd

Yes Zelensky has been brilliant on this. I think Putin has finally met his match. I'm glad this has spooked China as well (if I'm reading you right).

100%. I think China are not just spooked but shaken.

Also today there was an article in the BBC about a racing driver who was sacked by his team because he is Russian. Would you say this is unfair?

Mazepin's father -is- was a major sponsor of the Haas F1 team through his company Uralkali - and daddy is also an oligarch with close connections to Putin. So in short, no, not unfair at all.

Also, Mazepin was a mediocre driver who would never have made it into the F1 without his daddy's money. So it was more unfair that he was there in the first place.

WhatsGoingOn2022 - this is a superb thread, we are definitely getting a lot from it! Thanks for doing this.

Oh BTW: when we talk about how Putin was emboldened to do this, and how he has gotten away with similar smaller things in the past, one useful thing to consider is 'salami tactics.' It's like the idea of a boiled frog: ie there is no one big stand, it's lots of small gradual slides. Perhaps what Putin did wrong was getting greedy, and deciding to take the whole salami at once.

Check out this great Yes Prime Minister that gets it exactly right:

Thank you for this thread OP.

Specific question: what is Lithuania's situation at the moment? How much does Putin want Lithuania, and is it in similar danger?

Thank you.

OP, what part do you think China could play in this?

@RoseRedRoseBlue

OP, what part do you think China could play in this?

I have also been wondering this.

Xi Jinping asked the Russians not to commence the Invasion of Ukraine until after the Olympics - so once the Paralympics finish on the 13h of March, what position may China be likely to take?

One question. If the Russians are able to capture Zelenskyy alive, might they put him through a show trial, or would they murder him there and then?

@piddocktrumperiness

I wanted to add that IMO Russia and the US are two sides of the same coin. Both with disgusting meddling of world politics that have exacerbated problems. Only one really used nuclear weapons though. Propaganda goes both ways too. Russian propaganda is evident but don't think that the Americans are guilt free of this. We only have one narrative here in the UK. They censored any other narrative. The US must have an agenda. They make up most of Nato Power. I just don't buy that it is clear cut like this. I don't trust either nation. My concerns are for the people fleeing and suffering.

I agree with this..

Thanks for the thread OP. I had no idea that Putin was trying to reinstate the same president that was ousted after the Euromaidan protests. That won’t go down well. To be honest I hadn’t even heard of Euromaidan until I watched ‘Winter on Fire’ on Netflix recently. I did know about the 2014 Crimea conflict and further back Holodomor.

Ukraine has certainly had a turbulent recent history.

Place-marking.

Can we go easy on the crossed out text OP please? Very informative thread but crossing out the texts makes it so much harder to read.

@rurallibralady87

Can we go easy on the crossed out text OP please? Very informative thread but crossing out the texts makes it so much harder to read.

Read the whole thread, this has been noted

Huge appreciation from me for taking the time to share this with us too OP.

One of the points you made about Russians going along with this until it affects them is an interesting one. This style of governance has become normalised, so until there is a change on the ground which affects peoples day to day, as you say the risks of protesting are too great for people to engage with. That worries me as it will take time, but also perhaps waiting for sanctions etc to take effect is the best way of minimising even greater loss of life outside Ukraine, but sadly it doesn’t minimise it inside.

A question from me - what alternatives do the West have and what might they mean?

@bluetongue

Thanks for the thread OP. I had no idea that Putin was trying to reinstate the same president that was ousted after the Euromaidan protests. That won’t go down well. To be honest I hadn’t even heard of Euromaidan until I watched ‘Winter on Fire’ on Netflix recently. I did know about the 2014 Crimea conflict and further back Holodomor.

Ukraine has certainly had a turbulent recent history.

There is nothing to suggest that Putin is looking to reinstate Yanukovych.

This would cause huge resistance from Donbass, who after 2014 see him as a traitor, as well as from the West, who never supported him in the first place.

OP, what part do you think China could play in this

I would like to know this too.

@piddocktrumperiness

I thought it was the encroaching of Nato i.e the US close to Russian borders that ruffled Putin's feathers.

Pot kettle black considering the US's reaction during the Cuban Missile Crisis

For the record, Putin is a monster. This is a humantarian crisis and invasion is never the answer. But, I always think the US with its history of meddling in the world, is being insidious and they're using Ukraine as pawns which is vile. I thought the US wants Russia to self implode

This.

What is happening is shocking and is a humanitarian disaster which will reshape that whole region and has severe implications for the whole of Europe. But our anger should be directed at Putin and the US in equal measures.

As always, the US did a great job by dangling a carrot in front of a country and then dumping them. As always, it won't be the US taking the direct impact of consequences. They are not taking in the refugees or suffering much from implementing the sanctions.

It's actually a win-win for the US - both Russia and the rest of Europe will be weakened as a result of all this.

[quote WhatsGoingOn2022]Oh BTW: when we talk about how Putin was emboldened to do this, and how he has gotten away with similar smaller things in the past, one useful thing to consider is 'salami tactics.' It's like the idea of a boiled frog: ie there is no one big stand, it's lots of small gradual slides. Perhaps what Putin did wrong was getting greedy, and deciding to take the whole salami at once.

Check out this great Yes Prime Minister that gets it exactly right:

[/quote] First time I've watched any yes, prime minister - is the rest of it on the money?!

[quote WhatsGoingOn2022]@bellac11the problem with any analysis that tries to square this on the US is that it is missing the fundamental point. Obama back down on Syria, Biden withdrew entirely from Afghanistan. Putin wasn't nervous that they were a threat, the opposite: he saw NATO as weak and useless, so there was now nothing to stop him intervening in other states as he saw fit.[/quote]
I actually disagree with this. What the US did in the last 5 years in conflicts in the Middle East has no relevance to Ukraine.

You are factually incorrect in your answer re NATO consistently refusing to accept Ukraine and Georgia.

I am linking below to a transcript from NATO summit that took place on 14th June 2021 in Brussels. Paragraph 68:

     We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process; we reaffirm all elements of that decision, as well as subsequent decisions, including that each partner will be judged on its own merits.  We stand firm in our support for Ukraine’s right to decide its own future and foreign policy course free from outside interference.  

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm

There are a few paragraphs on Georgia too. Ukraine was on the fast track to becoming part of NATO.

Great thread.

Will Ukraine become Russia's Vietnam?

Also given Putin's age what happens when he dies? Does he have a son/successor? Would they have an election? Why was the West not bothering that he's been in power for 20 years?

Thanks you for this thread. It is very informative.