Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@Tigersonvaseline

Why would any legitimate peaceful democracy ever fear NATO?

Yes exactly, they don't. And it's borderline hilarious to hear people try to claim that Russia has a legitimate fear of NATO, or a fear at all. The opposite. If they read anything about Russia's calculations here or the last decade of US and European foreign policy it would show them it's the direct opposite.

Yeah I wish Putin would disappear. Of course
Best way to do that is destabilise the nation, not just pluck him out.

Putin does however not want any genuine democracies on his border. He was broadly fine with Ukraine until they overthrew a Putin-linked president. This man is now in Belarus and there are claims that Putin plans to re-install him as president of Ukraine after capture.

You can read about it here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

@bellac11 but NATO didn't expand up to Russia's borders. NATO has been refusing applications from states in that area. They had no interest in being involved with them. The problem was, those states were desperate for protection from Russia because the Kremlin was denying their right to exist and making moves to overthrow their governments. It's really hard to see how NATO could be seen as a threat to Russia in that region when (to put it really really frankly) the problem was that they didn't give a damn about them. NATO can definitely be critiqued here, but for the opposite reason to how you are thinking.

On nuclear weapons: yes, Russia made a promise to respect their territory and Ukraine agreed to nuclear disarmament. This obviously has not gone well, not least due to the fact that Belarus on their north border (dictator, aligned with Putin) just changed their law so they can accept Russian nukes on their soil, so they'll be right up against Kyiv.

@piddocktrumperiness

Didn't Putin ask to join Nato at one point? as did Yeltsin?

Yes allegedly so. Exactly what he was thinking I have no idea, since at least 50% of the purpose is to protect small states from him. It's worth remembering that when he first came to power, many of the small countries around Russia did not have functioning democraciesPutin was fairly happy with them, he had governments he could hold sway over. It's having democracies near him that he doesn't wantthey don't tend to be happy to just kowtow and follow Kremlin orders.

Also, Putin wants neighbouring countries to have similar regimes: restricted press, no LGBT rights, limited roles for women, extreme wealth divides.

I also wanted to add that of curse I'm not saying Russia is perfect! far from! but I need more parameters here, micro and macro.

My family are Middle Eastern. The ME have been pushed and shoved by both super powers. I'm telling you, America is no hero, neither is Russia. You can throw the allies in with the Americans.

I think if we peel away enough I'd struggle to see where one ends and the other begins. What is the use of playing Democratic and land of the free when -pillaging- liberating countries far and wide? What parameters are we talking here? Human Rights? Religious Freedom? Ask any Arab ( not Saudi/Qatari ) how the US has meddled and exacerbated the problems, destabilised economies, funded fringe groups, worsened factions, still supporting occupation of Palestinians, created vacuums which feed terrorism (which they supported or helped create) whilst sleeping with the Gulf? But at least a Muslim can be muslim freely with no prejudice in the US right? Or at least Americans don't torture? Or at least Americans don't have conversion therapy?

They're both terrible.

@APineForestInWinter

Thanks for this thread. I am interested in your thoughts on the parallels between this situation and the lead-up to WWII, and the role of the treaty of Versailles vs current sanctions.

That's an interesting one--I think the thing about the Treaty of Versailles that is a worrying parallel is that you have two states that are imperialist and brutish regimes, who feel a sense of eternal victimhood that others try to stop them bullying and attacking at will. There are a lot of similarities as both tend to see any restriction on attacking others as offensive rather than defensive. The thing to understand about both Russia now and Germany then is that both are countries who conquer others, not countries who accept their own land borders.

Putin is getting more and more extreme, although he has always been this way inclined. The Treaty of Versailles shows that half-hearted measures just anger and don't achieve anything. There is a reason why Germany needed an intense period of 'denazification' and complete renewal after WWII. There's a link up the thread to a foreign policy analyst who makes this point about Russia, that this is ultimately where they need to go.

The Russian state also includes numerous regions that have attempted to break away. So if there is a resounding defeat of Russia in the near future, whether it will exist after in its current form is debatable.

@Cento

Can you explain more about what Money Laundry involves? I know that this is a common name for London in Russia. I had friends who worked for a big restaurant group in London (owned by Russians) and they could all get mortgages via the company. It always seemed dodgy to me

Hi! Of course.

So in the simplest terms, money laundering is literally cleaning money: it's taking dirty money (e.g. made from pillaging a state, or selling sex slaves, etc.) and then bringing it somewhere like London, buying e.g. property with it, and then ta dah! you have clean money that is the result of property investments. Now you're free to use it as you please and call it legitimate.

London is one of the key places in the world for this. Russian money made from the most awful sources is then made legitimate and goes to fund the lifestyles of a tiny section of the Russian population.

This article is from 3 weeks ago, I dont know the validity of the journalism as I dont know who 'the conversation' are but the article seems to suggest that NATOs expansion was not discussed or explicitly disagreed with by Russia (under Yeltsin) anyway

By the way I dont say that Russia 'fears' NATO expansion as such, just that it has beef with it moving closer although that would also tie in with the lack of wanting sovereign democratic states on its doorstep

theconversation.com/ukraine-the-history-behind-russias-claim-that-nato-promised-not-to-expand-to-the-east-177085

London is one of the key places in the world for this. Russian money made from the most awful sources is then made legitimate and goes to fund the lifestyles of a tiny section of the Russian population.

It's awful that the money was embraced despite much of it coming from awful sources but only now it's not acceptable.

@fungh

London is one of the key places in the world for this. Russian money made from the most awful sources is then made legitimate and goes to fund the lifestyles of a tiny section of the Russian population.

It's awful that the money was embraced despite much of it coming from awful sources but only now it's not acceptable.

The hypocrisy is shocking, the money flooding in as not only enabled Russia but undermined our own economy but everyone was happy with that then

@fungh

London is one of the key places in the world for this. Russian money made from the most awful sources is then made legitimate and goes to fund the lifestyles of a tiny section of the Russian population.

It's awful that the money was embraced despite much of it coming from awful sources but only now it's not acceptable.

Yes--unfortunately when you look at it deeply, much of the economy of London is based on this. Russian, Saudi, etc money in many cases made from what we would call modern-day slavery.

Up thread I mentioned the idea of 'sports washing'--buying major sports projects or culture is a way of legitimising this dirty money and the dirty reputation that accompanies it.

Think of it this way: Russian former KGB, fought Serbian war, 800mn made from labour camps. Money laundering and sportswashing turns him into a London property entrepreneur who owns a cultural icon and gains a broad acceptance among the general public. How he made his money is forgotten.

@WhatsGoingOn2022 I can't seem to quote you reply re Azov, but you are underplaying the influence they have. They now run "training camps" for other divisions of Ukrainian army and have a recruitment hub in Central Kyiv in a Ministry of Defence building.

Azov had been formally incorporated into the Ukrainian military and its street vigilante wing, known as the National Corps, was deployed across the country under the watch of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, and alongside the National Police. In December 2021, Zelensky would be seen delivering a “Hero of Ukraine” award to a leader of the fascistic Right Sector in a ceremony in Ukraine’s parliament.

thegrayzone.com/2022/03/04/nazis-ukrainian-war-russia/

They are not limited to a separatist are at all, they are based in Mariupol (not part of the separatist area), but have a country wide reach with links to multiple terrorist cells abroad.

In my previous post I linked to a document on violation of human rights by Azov. It talks about thousands of people who suffered from the extreme violence at their hands.

How you can downplay it to 2% and restricted to one area is beyond me.

I understand that it doesn't fit the narrative of " the neo nazi angle is just Russian propaganda", but I actually provided a link to an official document that was NOT produced by the Russians.

[quote bellac11]This article is from 3 weeks ago, I dont know the validity of the journalism as I dont know who 'the conversation' are but the article seems to suggest that NATOs expansion was not discussed or explicitly disagreed with by Russia (under Yeltsin) anyway

By the way I dont say that Russia 'fears' NATO expansion as such, just that it has beef with it moving closer although that would also tie in with the lack of wanting sovereign democratic states on its doorstep

theconversation.com/ukraine-the-history-behind-russias-claim-that-nato-promised-not-to-expand-to-the-east-177085[/quote]
Yes if you're talking over the much longer past, this is a fair point--Russia was not happy with small states on its borders essentially choosing a modern, liberal and democratic model. Primarily due to the increasingly tight control Putin sought to have over his people.

The question then is whether you consider that a legitimate thing that should be bowed down to--ie should what would be hundreds of millions of people live under dictators because that is what the Kremlin would prefer, so as to maintain absolute power over their people.

There is a very good reason why most Russians with money don't want to live in Russia.

Let's be frank.
Is it just russian money?

Saudi? Qatar? China?

It's not just us and for us.. it's not just happened under trump or the Labour government.

Sadly the world is in thrall to money look at the royal family.

For all their riches they still get suckered in by Mr fake sheikh.

I'm hoping once this Blow's over...we will be far more transparent across many areas including Saudi ext

The nano batteries , battery technology Will save us D

@Tigersonvaseline

Let's be frank. Is it just russian money?

Saudi? Qatar? China?

It's not just us and for us.. it's not just happened under trump or the Labour government.

Sadly the world is in thrall to money look at the royal family.

For all their riches they still get suckered in by Mr fake sheikh.

I'm hoping once this Blow's over...we will be far more transparent across many areas including Saudi ext

The nano batteries , battery technology Will save us D

I hate to say this, nothing will change. Nothing has ever changed. Go back to medieval times, republic, restoration, revolution blah blah blah. Every country in the world works to gain resources and power. In fact war crime and human rights laws are so recent as to risk being a blip. And countries like russia dont abide by them anyway.

@letmesleep123 fair enough, I will take your word on their influence on Mariupol, I don't have any personal links to that specific region in Ukraine. I do absolutely believe they are an issue though and should be dealt with immediately after this war. I just don't believe they have anything to do with the motivation behind Russia's invasion, and the Kremlin have moved away from that line to question whether Ukraine can be an independent state at all

The hypocrisy is shocking, the money flooding in as not only enabled Russia but undermined our own economy but everyone was happy with that then

well the powers that be were not sure about the rest of us.

@fungh

The hypocrisy is shocking, the money flooding in as not only enabled Russia but undermined our own economy but everyone was happy with that then

well the powers that be were not sure about the rest of us.

Well enough people voted for political parties to not challenge it

(not me, and presumably not you either but enough did)

@fungh

The hypocrisy is shocking, the money flooding in as not only enabled Russia but undermined our own economy but everyone was happy with that then

well the powers that be were not sure about the rest of us.

Unfortunately I have to say we have all been part of it, on many fronts. Much of our housing is funded by these regimes, much of our infrastructure. Likewise our sports club, just looks on twitter from Chelsea fans the last week, or how other sports clubs defend their owners dodgy ties. Look at our cultural institutes which are typically backed by these regimes, our top universities too. It's in all branches of politics, we've been focusing on the Tory Russian money, there's also the Labour China money, and a whole lot more. Much of English company law is essentially designed to create this sort of impenetrability.

This seems to be Putins first major misjudgement, everything had been going so well for him until now especially his disinformation and troll factories (is this true and how powerful have they been?). Anyway, why has he mis stepped now? I have heard stories about his health, is that a factor?

I just lost a long post i had carefully crafted with a sleeping baby on me. Damn. The essence was that the NATO intervention in Kosovo in 1999 probably doesn't constitute a good precedent for helping Ukraine because it was based on the R2P principle (responsibility to protect citizens from atrocities when the state fails to do so) and secondly, it was deemed to be illegal by the independent international commission on Kosovo, and others.

I'm not sure things will change re money. Look at old money & how it's admired, new money is cheap etc. It seems to be irrelevant how that old money was obtained in the first place.

Yes I keep hearing about his health but I dont know what is meant by that. Do they mean his mental health? Surely psychopathy is part of the job description so in many wways he is perfectly healthy!

I think we have fecked our economy by relying so heavily on house prices growth, it's not a good thing to have all that money sloshing around & benefits very few.