Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

[quote WhatsGoingOn2022]@bellac11 but NATO didn't expand up to Russia's borders. NATO has been refusing applications from states in that area. They had no interest in being involved with them. The problem was, those states were desperate for protection from Russia because the Kremlin was denying their right to exist and making moves to overthrow their governments. It's really hard to see how NATO could be seen as a threat to Russia in that region when (to put it really really frankly) the problem was that they didn't give a damn about them. NATO can definitely be critiqued here, but for the opposite reason to how you are thinking.

On nuclear weapons: yes, Russia made a promise to respect their territory and Ukraine agreed to nuclear disarmament. This obviously has not gone well, not least due to the fact that Belarus on their north border (dictator, aligned with Putin) just changed their law so they can accept Russian nukes on their soil, so they'll be right up against Kyiv.[/quote]
Again, factually incorrect.

May I remind everyone that all OPs posts are just OPs opinion. We have no way of verifying the OPs credentials. Whilst I am sure her intentions are to educate, some of her post are ill informed and are not based on facts, but her opinions.

With regards to NATO refusing applications , I am linking again to a transcript from a nato summit in 2021 which confirms that Ukraine was very much set to join.

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm

Thanks for bringing a little balance to the thread @letmesleep123

Certainly not condoning Russia’s actions, but it’s informative to read beyond the western narrative.

I agree that OP is posting opinion as fact. For example, OP asserted that Corbyn is a Kremlin sympathiser. I have my issues with Corbyn, but OPs remarks about him don't gell with his recent statement.

Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) Tweeted:
Putin must immediately withdraw troops from #Ukraine and engage in constructive political dialogue. A shocking humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding that must end now t.co/HBoN7RHlMX twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1499699236228808710?s=20&t=lTklsdLuVz9cFl70hZjidQ

I support Ukraine wholeheartedly and I want Putin to pay for his crimes, but propaganda is coming from both sides.

In fairness to the OP, pro-Russian Ukrainians are doing the same (opinion=fact) and have been for the last two weeks. I guess it's up to the rest of us to sift the "facts" and do a bit of critical thinking
We don't know who the OP is, or what their agenda is. Others on the thread are arguably more transparent. But coming at it very one-sidedly nevertheless

@Notarealmum

Thanks for bringing a little balance to the thread *@letmesleep123*

Certainly not condoning Russia’s actions, but it’s informative to read beyond the western narrative.

I am actually not condoning Russia's actions either. As a Ukrainian/British citizens all I wish for to be honest is for both tge US and Russia to get out of my country and allow it to be democratic without puppet governments from both sides.

It's heartbreaking that we keep going from puppet Russian government (Yanukovych) to a US backed coup and US puppet government (Poroshenko and Zelensky) to now a war.

Zelensky is a professional PR machine, he looks great selfie and makes great speeches, but what our country needs is a neutral president, who would bring the East and the West of Ukraine together and make the countrt great again.

This won't happen with us viewing just Russia as an enemy. We need peace with Russia and the US to back off and stop using us as a pawn in their games.

@PAFMO

In fairness to the OP, pro-Russian Ukrainians are doing the same (opinion=fact) and have been for the last two weeks. I guess it's up to the rest of us to sift the "facts" and do a bit of critical thinking We don't know who the OP is, or what their agenda is. Others on the thread are arguably more transparent. But coming at it very one-sidedly nevertheless

Yes, absolutely, I have seen examples of this on other threads.

Speaking of other threads, on another thread someone posted this article about Putin's long term aims. Whether Mearsheimer is right or not I honestly don't know, because I really am not well informed enough, but it is really worth a read.

www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine

We need peace with Russia and the US to back off and stop using us as a pawn in their games.
Alas War is profitable for too many bad actors. Ordinary people be damned.

letmesleep123 if Zelensky is a US puppet, wouldn't he have got the hell out of Ukraine by now? It is one thing to be a slick PR machine, but quite another to put your life on the line, which is what he seems to be doing?

@PAFMO

In fairness to the OP, pro-Russian Ukrainians are doing the same (opinion=fact) and have been for the last two weeks. I guess it's up to the rest of us to sift the "facts" and do a bit of critical thinking We don't know who the OP is, or what their agenda is. Others on the thread are arguably more transparent. But coming at it very one-sidedly nevertheless

This

@ClaudineClare

letmesleep123 if Zelensky is a US puppet, wouldn't he have got the hell out of Ukraine by now? It is one thing to be a slick PR machine, but quite another to put your life on the line, which is what he seems to be doing?

Not necessarily. The US stands to benefit more from a long drawn out conflict. If Ukraine surrenders, Russia wins in 6 months it's all old news. This way Russia is the pariah and Europe suffocated itself by the sanctions that will hurt them as much as they will Russia.

I highly doubt that Zelensky is putting his life on the line. Many rumors are circulating as to his whereabouts, but it's highly doubtful that he is anywhere near the front lines. Most probably he is in a bunker in Western Ukraine.

letmesleep123 so are you saying that at its very basic level this is a US vs Russia conflict, with Ukraine as a proxy for the US? Sorry if that is putting it rather simplistically, but I genuinely want to try to understand all viewpoints.

There is nothing to suggest that Putin is looking to reinstate Yanukovych.

Actually, there have been multiple reports in recent days that Janukowycz continues to be protected by and collaborates with Putin with a view to be reinstated as Ukrainian president and Ukraine becoming a satellite country of Russia. This wouldn't be surprising.

I disagree about Zelensky too, he might be a PR machine but he's not an American puppet.

Also disagree about Ukraine being close to joining NATO. You're quoting resolutions from 2008 and a repeat from 2021. This in itself is 13 years. Meanwhile, for example Poland became a member in 1996, seven years after 1989 and five after the first free elections since the beginning of the fall of Soviet Russia. NATO has been dangling a carrot for Ukraine for far too long without a true willingness to expand and this is part of the issue. We wouldn't be in this position today had the expansion taken place years ago, as it should have in my view.

Re Angela Merkel, again, the West, not just her, had a far too conciliatory (placating?) attitude towards Putin for far too long and this didn't help, I've said this before.

Both Corbyn and Abbott do not understand that negotiating with a country like Russia will not succeed, it never has and it never will. Decisive steps were needed for years before but no one was in any rush to take them. So no, it's not unfair to criticise them at all for their shallow, populistic and equally unrealistic slogans.

Re neo-Nazi groups, they exist everywhere and that's an unfortunate truth. Whenever strong nationalistic tendencies are at the forefront, such groups gain traction. I firmly disagree with combining them with Ukrainian army because of course they should not be given this status, ever. However, again, historically this is not unusual in countries that were forced to defend their territory or felt under constant threat from their neighbours, this isn't new. What is wrong is creating the impression that this is Ukraine and what Ukrainian army is all about. It most definitely is not.

The reality is the West has some blame to take but there's no way Western influences can be in any way compared to Russian in Ukraine, just no way.

I appreciate opinions on this thread but some are frankly concerning and detached from the reality.

negotiating with a country like Russia will not succeed, it never has and it never will

So how is this war to be ended if not through negotiation?

Let me sleep

We don't know your "credentials" either.

You don't know mine... what's going on?
Oh yes... it's chat on an anonymous forum where anyone can talk about anything.

It's a chat forum.

@ClaudineClare

letmesleep123 so are you saying that at its very basic level this is a US vs Russia conflict, with Ukraine as a proxy for the US? Sorry if that is putting it rather simplistically, but I genuinely want to try to understand all viewpoints.

It's a complex conflict, but yes, I believe it boils down to US vs Russia.

The US are a lot more skillful at creating the conflict from within, whilst Russia go full on military.

The US have been "supporting democracy " in the Ukraine for a while.

If you are genuinely interested, have a look at this video of Victoria Nuland taken 8 years ago

American Conquest by Subversion: Victoria Nuland's Admits Washington Has Spent $5 Billion to "Subvert Ukraine" "After three visits to Ukraine in five weeks, Victoria Nuland explains that in the past two decades, the United States has spent five Billion dollars ($5,000,000,000) to subvert Ukraine, and assures her listeners that there are prominent businessmen and government officials who support the US project to tear Ukraine away from its historic relationship with Russia and into the US sphere of interest (via "Europe").
m.youtube.com/watch?v=U2fYcHLouXY#

@ClaudineClare

Corbyn Kremlin support goes a little deeper than one wet lettuces tweets calling for " dialogue" with a crazed blood thirsty dictator"

Safe to say... thankfully and impressively Kier starmer is on it. He's dealing with the absolute rot in the party. Google it.

@Tigersonvaseline

Let me sleep

We don't know your "credentials" either.

You don't know mine... what's going on?
Oh yes... it's chat on an anonymous forum where anyone can talk about anything.

It's a chat forum.

To be fair, the difference is that letmesleep has not started a thread to "due to the amount of misinformation and speculation" in the way OP has done, the implication being that OP is in the position of being able to correct such misinformation and speculation.

Fascinating thread op!

What are the geopolitical implications if this leads to a much weakened Russia (possibly Putin being removed and change of regime?) Could other regions of Russia break away, or neighbours attack, while the military is concentrated elsewhere? Does China become more powerful if Russia is weaker?

Also! Is there a good primer or site on this kind of thing?

Let me sleep interesting posts.

But the presentation of the wicked us trying to draw Ukraine away from Russia...

And? Russia is essentially a giant prison camp under a dictator who takes over whatever countries he want's And how he wants.

Russia as a culture etc could never be removed from Ukraine just as the UK will never stop being European just because we left a trading block.

I'm not getting it because if3 Russia was a proper democracy and not in the grip of pirate gangsters plundering it's wealth for themselves... then we really would not be in this position.

@Tigersonvaseline

Let me sleep

We don't know your "credentials" either.

You don't know mine... what's going on?
Oh yes... it's chat on an anonymous forum where anyone can talk about anything.

It's a chat forum.

Absolutely. My objection is, however, with anyone presenting themselves as an expert . A number of threads are running, where everyone is presenting their opinions, this thread, however, was positioned as "I am an expert, happy to answer your questions ".

I felt it was only fair to highlight that the OPs answers were inconsistent with facts and information from official sources.

True

But any of us could start such a thread, but we're all big girl's on Mumsnet.

Other posters I see frame all their beautiful and always ( extremely long) well written posts with always a healthy dose of their own agenda Which is natural I guess. We all have a view... but this other poster knows they have a fan base who swallow everything hook line And sinker...far more subversive than this op.

It's a chat forum not a political rally.

this

letmesleep123
I don't fear the US but I do fear Russia. If the US agenda is to stop the likes of Putin then I'm all for it.

exactly

@letmesleep123

all I wish for to be honest is for both tge US and Russia to get out of my country and allow it to be democratic without puppet governments from both sides.

I feel for you and everyone with connections to the region, but surely Putin is never going to accept a free and democratic Ukraine on its border? Democracy implies the right for the country to choose its own path, and it seems to me that the ousting of Yanukovych and later the election of Zelensky in a landslide (no one's disputing that election afaik) suggested the majority of Ukrainians did not want to be in Russia's orbit.

Ukraine's government is clearly not without its faults in the disputed regions. But it was democratically elected and without the support it's currently receiving from the US and more directly the EU, it would be on its knees. Instead the country is still fighting, and I find it hard to accept that Russia and the US are as bad as each other in this scenario. (Other conflicts, maybe, but we're talking about this one.)