Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Re RA. I personally think he's an intriguing figure for two reasons - firstly because as you say, in theory he should hate the regime for a myriad of personal reasons and he should be fiercely protective of Ukrainian-Jewish and Ukrainian communities personally. He is also obviously a smart, powerful man. It can be argued he made comments/acted in support of these communities or at least hoped to do so. As you say his daughter has been vocal too.

On the other hand there is the obvious element of how he acquired his wealth. And there cannot be any doubt this was helped by his personal close connections with VP. RA is a smart man, he knew what he needed to do. He's also lived in Western countries for a while and has, or ought to have a more informed perspective on VP's atrocious politics towards multiple countries, and frankly towards its own people too. So on these grounds alone, what makes him different to other Russian oligarchs who have been sanctioned? Nothing.

Some will say, what more could he have done without risking him and his being repressed? Well, this is a difficult question. Like I said earlier, there is a lot he could have done but didn't. But it would've come with personal risk to him. It's the question of morality here, being a rich person vs being a decent person. Don't think both are possible in VP's Russia.

It could also be argued that having reasons to be friendly with both sides would be a helpful negotiating, or rather mediating position. However, this perspective again comes from a a Western POV that one can always sit down and work out a solution that is going to keep every side satisfied and keep the peace, particularly through involving someone understanding both sides. But as we've discussed earlier on here, this is a highely unlikely scenario to take place here unless one side is extremely weak and then a negotiation would take place that would effectively be capitulation, so it wouldn't keep everyone satisfied and it wouldn't result in long term peace, quite the contrary. And in any event, really if he'd like to be involved he could still do so.

I think he's a multi-dimensional figure. And I'd be very interested to know his personal views if he weren't so tight-lipped.

However, this perspective again comes from a a Western POV that one can always sit down and work out a solution that is going to keep every side satisfied and keep the peace

I suspect this is the argument that politicians have used for years to justify turning a blind eye to all the obvious money laundering - that the connections were somehow useful.

It clearly hasn’t worked.

I think one of the things to remember when talking about Abramovich and other oligarchs in the context of what is happening in Ukraine: Ukraine and Russia have lots of links. Lots of people have personal links to both. Including no doubt a great many who are directly working for Putin at this moment. For example, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu's mother is Ukrainian.

Abramovich has strong Putin links, he has in part built his career and fortune this way. He is one of the circle of people who have helped Putin solidify his power. It's not as much about what he actually thinks himself in his own mind, as his potential here to be someone who can actually do something. Exactly how much they can do is a source of disagreement, but they can refuse to fund the Kremlin at this point and make clear to Putin that they are not a fan of what is happening.

Even if we said that every foreign-based Russian oligarch didn't approve of Putin's actions: they are still his inner circle, they need to be forced to act, and they need to also not have the resources to be able to back-channel funding into the Kremlin at this time.

Why haven't Ukraine forces blown huge sink holes in the roads ahead of the Russian tank columns to slow their advancement into major cities?

@Aristalese

He is intriguing, it's interesting that he seems to be basing himself in Israel.

I'm not thinking of in term's of how he's acquired his money and his link's to Putin, that's all a given.
It's more , I wonder what he is doing about Putin now, are they still friend's? How could he possibly support this attack.
I'm just speculating what he might be doing, ignoring it all , pulling up there draw bridge and consolidating his wealth , or working behind the scenes, using his connections and asset's to organise a coup? To pressure Putin.

Obviously I hope it's the latter.

I do wish that the Pole's had been able to move their Mig fighter jets to the Ukraine. It appears they were too public over the deal and placed the US in an impossible position.
It may have been feasible if enacted with more secrecy. It was a brilliant offer and would have been of real benefit to the Ukrainians.

It appears they were too public over the deal and placed the US in an impossible position.

This is not what happened at all. Did you read my earlier posts explaining this?

Do his high ranking generals, the ones posting that they aren’t at war/it wasn’t a hospital, genuinely believe that or are just towing the line? Or are they like the conspiracy theorists over here and they are all self affirming that they are right and the rest of the world is against them?

@KonTikki

I do wish that the Pole's had been able to move their Mig fighter jets to the Ukraine. It appears they were too public over the deal and placed the US in an impossible position. It may have been feasible if enacted with more secrecy. It was a brilliant offer and would have been of real benefit to the Ukrainians.

Hi I have to agree broadly with @Aristalese 's take on this. This was an F up primarily on the US side, not on the Polish. In short: Poland wanted to give these fighter jets, which military analysis now suggests could be a game changer. The US were willing to give them replacement planes, but refused to be involved in the actual giving of these planes to Ukraine. Now they seem to oppose giving Ukraine planes at all, in any way. Basically, the US wanted to take a step back in this process and leave Poland both geographically and diplomatically on the front line. With where Poland is, they are totally right to say it's one or the other.

This all being so out in the open is undermine NATO's credibility, but I would argue mainly from the perspective of the US not showing themselves as sufficiently committed to the defence of Ukraine. Signals of weakness towards Putin are a really dangerous thing.

There are a load of practical and logistical challenges with regards to supplying the planes, but I think it boils down to the US deciding to row back on support for Ukraine militarily (while upping on sanctions), while those who are more affected by the situation are very much all in on helping Ukraine to succeed.

The UK looks like it will be stepping up on some anti aircraft equipment, I hope they follow through.

Any of you on here with Deutsche Bank? It's still refusing to cease operations in Russia.

For context:
www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-bank-faces-action-over-20bn-russian-money-laundering-scheme

[quote Aristalese]Any of you on here with Deutsche Bank? It's still refusing to cease operations in Russia.

For context:
www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-bank-faces-action-over-20bn-russian-money-laundering-scheme[/quote]
All of the below is a highly opinionated take, I will freely say that now. I'm putting it out there and happy to take push back: this is much more my personal interpretation based around my concept of how states should act rather than any detailed analysis from a foreign policy or economics perspective.

I have to say I am absolutely astounded by the behaviour of many German companies and indeed the German government the last week when it comes to sanctions on Russia. While Merkel built a policy of excessive reliance on Russia, and prioritising economics over defence/foreign policy/rule of law concerns, to see them go so far to continue working with Russia at a time like this is really something.

For anyone who missed it: former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder (a paid lobbyist for Russia's Gazprom) has had staff quitting en masse due to his refusal to stop his involvement in Russian companies. He has now travelled to meet Putin in Russia. He is far from the only prominent German businessman who is openly opposing economic sanctions and helping to undermine western efforts.

Yes, Germany is going to have a significant fallout from these actions against Putin. Why? Primarily due to their intentional policy over the last decade. I find their government's lack of awareness for how this will be taken by other countries to be little short of staggering. Time and time again all the evidence from the last few weeks suggests that Germany are the ones at the EU level trying to water down actions.

When comparing the actions of governments and businesses in Europe: I think Germany sits in the at best lukewarm category alongside Hungary, which is led by a man who is openly friends with Putin. I'm really surprised that they are so short sighted as to not realise that their actions undermine the entire European project.

An approach of bean counting at a moment like this shows whoever is making these decisions is not considering the longer-term consequences. Not least in the context of their decades of admirable 'never again' work. They are showing that Germany-the economic heart of Europe-is actually a weakness and a potential liability to the security of the continent as a whole. I don't think their government has significant appreciation for the importance of non-economic factors in the success of the European project.

@BenchBench

Do his high ranking generals, the ones posting that they aren’t at war/it wasn’t a hospital, genuinely believe that or are just towing the line? Or are they like the conspiracy theorists over here and they are all self affirming that they are right and the rest of the world is against them?

They know the truth, it's an intentional policy that is communicated downwards and that they have used for the past few decades. It's not flailing in the dark from them but an intentional and thought-through propaganda approach. Unfortunately it can be highly successful, for example if you look at how western far right and far left groupings lapped up their lies over chemical weapons in Syria.

They programme the hospital coordinates into planes and artillery. They also especially target places like bakeries and markets, which are likely to have high numbers of civilians as well as necessary supplies like food.

The thing to remember: most of the senior ranks in Russia, from oligarchs to ministers or officials, got to where they are today by directly doing this kind of thing themselves. Look in biographies to see who is ex-KGB, who is ex-FSB, etc.

It is a very western thing for us to look at this and think 'oh these Russian leaders must be horrified at the harm they are causing to civilians.' Most of these people are in their roles today because they did the exact same thing to people in Georgia, people in Chechnya, people in Syria, etc. This is their bread and butter work.

And more recent news on DB:

www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/deutsche-bank-says-not-practical-to-exit-russia-business.html

It's an interesting take from its CEO, isn't it, nearly suggesting that the likes of HSBC acted recklessly in pulling out...in other words, spinning it until its position on this becomes untenable, and in whose interest - that is the question.

The next logical question is who are DB’s clients?

For those who are interested in reading more about Germany's position in all this, from people who are both academically excellent but also very opinionated: I would recommend the below as a good starting point:

twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1502009335383273480

twitter.com/benjaminhaddad/status/1501934522530611214

For anyone with friends inside Russia: it looks now like Instagram and WhatsApp may go soon. So if you need to, please establish alternative lines of communication ASAP.

Speaking of Germany: some polling out this morning which suggests the general public there support going further than their government has to date, on energy imports in particular:

twitter.com/n_roettgen/status/1502222738605416458

On Gerhard Schroder's trip to Russia: there is a great Politico article that seems to have some good insider information. It seems now that Ukraine were made aware of his plans and helped him with some talking points, but that the German government were not consulted. So he's doing an Abramovich and going freelance to represent business interests harmed by this invasion

www.politico.eu/article/gerhard-schroder-in-moscow-to-meet-putin-in-ukraine-peace-bid-sources/

@Papertyger These are interesting points. As you say, there isn't enough (or any?) information about his stance that would allow for a discussion on this. I read this morning that Canada is sanctioning him too.

I've seen rumours that Sergey beseda has been placed under house arrest by Putin

If it's true the wheel's are turning.

Yes, speculating Abramowitz but I think going to Israel is a statement if true rather than back to Putin's embrace

Another day of helpful updates.

A polite plea to people who may just be picking this thread up now. You really need to take the time to start from the beginning of the thread. The situation is changing hour by hour but the OP (and other posters) have provided lots of background information and their own positions (and biases - and I mean this respectfully towards them) throughout the thread. This context is key when reading their ongoing updates.

I have been anti-war my entire life (I'm 59) because I was brought up by and have since known many other people who have lived and fought through wars. They taught and told me it is not the best way to resolve anything.

However, there are some situations where a milataristic response is the best, unfortunate way. The last time I ever thought this was also the only time I ever agreed with Tony Blair - enforcing no-fly zones in Bosnia and Kosovo.

The time has come to stop 'theorizing' about Putin and to act. With a very heavy heart I suggest NATO, EU, everywhere puts their anti-missile defences onto Ready and we (at least the RAF and Polish Air Force) just go and attack the Russian Positions in Ukraine.

We can't stand by any longer (waiting for 'capatalist' sanctions to take effect) and watch a genocide before our eyes - we didn't in The Balkans and we shouldn't do so in Ukraine

Re Deutsche Bank, no. They have had a Dodgy reputation for years.

The hate, Putin is definitely up to something with Chernobyl and the other power plants.
So I am not sure what we could do.
I don't know why ( because Russia would suffer and Belarus) if he tried something but I feel more danger from the volatile situation around these plants then I do from Putin firing nuke's