Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

minimal, the Russians have a history of suffering and no amount of sanctions can compare to the suffering that socialism caused

True but only to some extent. Countries occupied by Soviet Russia or within its what used to be called sphere of influence suffered from food and other key items shortages for decades. There was rationing and vouchers for pretty much everything. Russians were treated poorly too and are undoubtedly a tough nation. But, as history shows, there is only so long that a nation will tolerate this before there's a political change. However, Russia's threshold for this is much higher due to significant resilience. OTOH, this happening in 2022 will also have a different impact than 30 years ago because the links with the West are different to begin with. This will eventually have more impact as a result.

I think ultimately the focus shouldn't be on how much a nation can endure economically but on why the nation is so used to suffering and having to be tough in the first place and why it takes far more for them to recognise this and rise up than one would anticipate. This is the result of years of being part of a regime and abused by it, and it's a very complex mentality.

If we are going to do nothing then forcing Russia into economic collapse may bring about the very thing we want to avoid.

Have to assume Putin isn't going anywhere, so what he will do when no longer able to fund his invasion, nation etc?
What will be the only thing left to him?

The pressure needs to be put on China, as they appear to be the only ones with close links to Putin, a wide spread war and risk of economic depression doesn't suit them at all.

Anyone see the Ch4 interview with the Chinese unofficial spokesperson yesterday on how he sees the real risk of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity?
Sobering as Matt Frei said.

[quote otille]@Aristalese
Ok, how would you feel if a comedian with no political experience was chosen to rule the UK? When UK was going through an 8 year war?
Say James Corden. Or Peter Kay. And then it gets found out that James Corden is very close friends/business partners with an oligarch who is sanctioned by the US for corruption?
[/quote]
Not read the thread since this has been posted but just wanted to say am Inthe only one who would happily trade Peter Kay for Boris J?

Let’s face it Boris Jonson, despite his ‘experience’, is a shit leader.

I’m pretty confident Peter Kay did not attend parties during lockdown when 100’s people were dying.

@Alexandra2001

If we are going to do nothing then forcing Russia into economic collapse may bring about the very thing we want to avoid.

Have to assume Putin isn't going anywhere, so what he will do when no longer able to fund his invasion, nation etc?
What will be the only thing left to him?

The pressure needs to be put on China, as they appear to be the only ones with close links to Putin, a wide spread war and risk of economic depression doesn't suit them at all.

Anyone see the Ch4 interview with the Chinese unofficial spokesperson yesterday on how he sees the real risk of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity?
Sobering as Matt Frei said.

There are other countries who also have sway over Russia, if you look at the countries with strong trade relationships in the area (like Kazakhstan and the rest of the central Asian region). They're not too pleased about what is going on and seem to be getting a little bit more opinionated in this. Essentially, Russia will drag them down with it. I saw some news yesterday about Kazakhstan that is particularly surprising: basically, many of Putin's strongest allies in the region have been dropping him:

www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/kazakhstan-takes-distance-from-russias-ukraine-war/

Kazakhstan are now sending medical supplies to Ukraine. This is a pretty big deal.

twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1502069706806681600

Some other sources for background on Central Asia in all this:

eurasianet.org/central-asia-frets-as-russia-suspends-grain-sugar-exports

eurasianet.org/central-asia-to-suffer-as-remittances-from-russia-nosedive

What I will say about China: I wouldn't try to go this way, other than diplomatically. Trying to put economic pressure on China would not get anywhere and they are using Russia as a proxy. The Chinese economy is a powerhouse, Russia is actually a weak and easy target. However more could be done to deal with China's allies (I'm not necessarily speaking economically though), in particular the position India is taking.

Zelensky studied law for five year's.

He's not Just a comedian.

@Alexandra2001

If we are going to do nothing then forcing Russia into economic collapse may bring about the very thing we want to avoid.

Have to assume Putin isn't going anywhere, so what he will do when no longer able to fund his invasion, nation etc?
What will be the only thing left to him?

The pressure needs to be put on China, as they appear to be the only ones with close links to Putin, a wide spread war and risk of economic depression doesn't suit them at all.

Anyone see the Ch4 interview with the Chinese unofficial spokesperson yesterday on how he sees the real risk of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity?
Sobering as Matt Frei said.

I didn’t see the C4 interview, but someone was telling me about it. Who was the Chinese guy being interviewed, do you remember? My friend couldn’t recall.

“@Alexandra2001

If we are going to do nothing then forcing Russia into economic collapse may bring about the very thing we want to avoid.

Have to assume Putin isn't going anywhere, so what he will do when no longer able to fund his invasion, nation etc?
What will be the only thing left to him?

The pressure needs to be put on China, as they appear to be the only ones with close links to Putin, a wide spread war and risk of economic depression doesn't suit them at all.

Anyone see the Ch4 interview with the Chinese unofficial spokesperson yesterday on how he sees the real risk of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity?
Sobering as Matt Frei said.“

Yes, I did see it. He was extraordinarily eloquent.

I had the impression that his overall advice was for Ukraine to back down as the only way to avoid terrible escalation to the real possibility of catastrophe. But I have not watched it again to check.

The interview is 24 minutes in.
www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news/on-demand/73703-070

@Onlywomengivebirth
I didn’t see the C4 interview, but someone was telling me about it. Who was the Chinese guy being interviewed, do you remember? My friend couldn’t recall

The man Matt Frei was speaking to:
(From Wikipedia)
Victor Zhikai Gao (Chinese: 高志凯; pinyin: Gāo Zhìkǎi; born 1962) is a Chinese international relations expert, diplomat, lawyer, academic and translator.[1][2] Gao is currently the vice-president of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG).

Of course he would say that. Another Chinese pundit adviser said China won't back Putin's war but it won't back west sanctions. Neither are good for China esp mad.

Of course they want the easiest solution Which is to suppress democracy! They don't have it and it's meaningless.

Argh! Yes, he rather sneekiky say's, don't arm Ukraine, don't escalate but zero as to asking Russia to back down! Zero about Ukraine sovereignty.

Zero about why Ukraine need's weapons too protect themselves.

Very sly and one sided as I suspected.

He also makes no reference to saving Ukraine lives from Putin's regime if they succeed but his vision or that of his party wouldn't see issues with how Putin works.

@otille so because someone dodgy bankrolled someone’s election campaign you think that’s okay for putin to bomb and annihilate a country? Do you know most politicians (like those in the U.K.) are bankrolled in a similar way? I think coming not from politics for the Ukraine president is actually what people need sometimes.

@otille I am from the U.K., but would still understand that someone who has done a masters/degree in U.K. politics/history etc still knows and understands more than me about the situation and I wouldn’t claim to know otherwise. That would be just like the anti-vaxxers saying they have done their research on the youuuuu-tuuube

I am really keen to hear pro-Russian viewpoints and could see why the pp with links to Eastern Ukraine was coming from. But to try to justify the invasion and murder of thousands because the president had a link to an oligarch is [shock

Just see this today.

Interesting.

Esp the referendum for the disputed area including Crimea.
Choices, Go Ukraine/Russia or independent and they must agree to uphold the result.

Un peace keeping forces must ring fence any voting in those places ( not that any of it will happen because Putin doesn't believe in votes

Does anyone know what food provisions the Russian soldiers will have? I can explain why I ask. I was once told that Russian soldiers were receiving supplies dropped by the RAF, in the very north of Russia, either towards the end of WW2 or soon after. Apparently the Russian soldiers were given a week's supply of bread and coffee and they had to forage for the rest. It was a long time ago, I know, but I just wondered.

Russian endurance is overplayed. In recent history Russians endured hardship because anyone who complained faced the gulag or execution. Stalingrad was a symbol of Soviet toughness and fortitude, and indeed there was immense bravery and stoicism there, but a huge amount of Soviet troops deserted or defected to the Germans. The rest faced instant execution if they attempted to surrender or retreat (even when retreat was the best tactic). They endured because they literally had no other option. Russia's strength has always been an endless supply of cannon fodder. Will modern Russians be willing cannon fodder? I guess it depends how far Putin's internal crackdown succeeds in cowering dissent.

In regards to the Donbas and Crimea, I'm reading Kleptopia by Tom Burgis, and he claims that the kleptocrat playbook for forcibly dominating an area and getting away with it involves planting stories about historic and endemic ethnic or religious divisions and then ascribing any violence enacted or fomented in the region to those tensions, rather than to their true origin (the kleptocrats suppressing dissent, seizing resources and encouraging instability). Claiming that Russian-fomented violence in two resource-rich areas of Ukraine and then claiming that violence is about Nazis versus 'Russian-speaking people' is a long-planned tactic.

Esma, totally agree about cannon fodder.
Apparently more being flooded into Ukraine now.
It's why those mum's of soldiers groups are powerful.

@Alexandra2001

"Anyone see the Ch4 interview with the Chinese unofficial spokesperson yesterday on how he sees the real risk of nuclear war and the destruction of humanity?
Sobering as Matt Frei said."

+++++

I would agree with the Chinese assessment on this frighteningly real risk.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

Hi everyone: I just want to make a point that might seem silly and a bit obvious but that I hope might make things seem a bit more black and white.

State A invades State B without provocation, committing war crimes and the murder of civilians while denying B's right to exist.

What would be the 'neutral' position here?

The 'neutral' position if you knew nothing of the background and context would be to say A is in the wrong.

Saying both are equally wrong would actually be a position strongly favourable to A and negative towards B. Because A has clearly committed acts that are grossly wrong.

Anyone who says they are 'neutral' on this or think both sides are are wrong as each other is coming from a blatantly pro-Kremlin position. There's not a huge point arguing with them because they know what they're saying, its just a distraction.

I don't disagree with your analysis here. But if you clearly state that what State A did to State B was unequivocally wrong but States C don't want to directly step into the fight with State A out of a real fear of causing a nuclear war resulting in global deaths would that be a pro State A position or simple self preservation ?

@WellThatsMeScrewed

"Let’s face it Boris Jonson, despite his ‘experience’, is a shit leader."

++++

I sadly agree and now is most definitely not the time to have a shit leader, errors that get made can have unthinkable consequences.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

"An interesting point on sanctions: remember that the west buys a lot of energy from Russia. However many of their sanctions means Russia will no longer be able to import the tools and machinery used for energy extraction. So a partial energy sanction could occur in effect."

+++

The only effective sanction now left against Russia is to stop the import of gas which makes Russia £150 million per day. Yes the lights will go out in Europe but gas sales are Russia's number one foreign income by a long way and it would stop their economy very quickly. Also it's not as though they could quickly build a new pipeline to China to sell it there instead.