Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@otille please expand. As some one who has lived there, what do you believe issues the Russian viewpoint?

to Russians it's old news and we do know a hell of a lot more on this topic.

At the moment, with access to the internet and news heavily controlled, and harsh penalties for criticising the government, I doubt that this is true of people living in Russia.

However, if you can clarify what you mean, please do.

@otille You’re absolutely right… it is terrifying reading this thread. The amount of hated and lack of humanity Putin is showing to Ukrainians and Russians is heart breaking. The fact Russians are absorbing his opinion is tragic and dangerous.
The sooner the sanctions result in complete economic meltdown, the better.

Astonished the western media still have not revealed Zelenskyy's best friend who bankrolled his presidency campaign - corrupt oligarch Kolomoisky who is sanctioned by the US for corruption. Both Russia and Ukraine are corrupt and we are the puppets to whatever the news show us.

From Google, look them up people:

During his presidential campaign, however, he used a bulletproof Mercedes registered to a business associate of him and his benefactor Kolomoisky. There’s a reason Zelensky watched his back when he was closely associated with Kolomoisky, who co-founded PrivatBank, the largest commercial bank in Ukraine before it was nationalized in 2016.

The FBI began investigating Kolomoisky in 2019 for financial crimes involving some of his US interests. American prosecutors said he and a partner embezzled and defrauded PrivatBank of billions and laundered some of the money via their holdings in the US. He was also officially sanctioned by the US last year for, among other things, undermining democracy in Ukraine.

Russia is pretty much = Ukraine. Money laundering, oligarchs, corruption.... We are the average Joes who are suffering.

Click on the links on my previous post, tell me the whole thing doesn't stink to high heavens?

@Toetouchingtitties I'm not absorbing Putin's opinions, far from it. I'm actually anti-politicians.

The Western media discussed this at lengh and provided detailed factual context that your posts are not fully consistent with.

Just one example:

www.ft.com/content/57cfa2bd-834d-43bd-ba1c-20a1ba2b16f4

Just want to reiterate what other have said in thanking @WhatsGoingOn2022 @Aristalese and others for providing measured and informed updates on this thread. They have been very helpful for me.

@Aristalese
Ok, how would you feel if a comedian with no political experience was chosen to rule the UK? When UK was going through an 8 year war?
Say James Corden. Or Peter Kay. And then it gets found out that James Corden is very close friends/business partners with an oligarch who is sanctioned by the US for corruption?

Both Russia and Ukraine are corrupt and we are the puppets to whatever the news show us.

Please do not attempt to ‘both sides’ this.

Ukraine is not bombing Russian hospitals.

@otille

You've just proved that you haven't RTFT.
But a nice try.

No I haven't read the full thread, only came on here today there are 900 posts?
@Aristalese

I've explained my stand, as a Russian who has lived in both countries. Who is neither pro Russia nor pro Ukraine. Sorry if my posts are not useful, I'll leave

Russia is pretty much = Ukraine.

Ukraine aren't killing thousands of people..

I've explained my stand

You really haven’t.

@otille

No I haven't read the full thread, only came on here today there are 900 posts? *@Aristalese*

I've explained my stand, as a Russian who has lived in both countries. Who is neither pro Russia nor pro Ukraine. Sorry if my posts are not useful, I'll leave

I ve read your posts and the only thing i take from it is your belief that Putin is justified in his invasion of Ukraine & hence the brutal murder and destruction of the country because Zelenskyy may or may not have been bank rolled by a corrupt politician.

@otille
Have you read the Financial Times article Aristalese posted at 08.04?

It was written March 5 2021.
It goes into detail about the election of Zelensky backed by Kolomoisky, and the subsequent US sanctioning of Kolomoisky to help Zelensky overturn the corruption in the country.

It is certainly extraordinary that an actor/comedian became the president of Ukraine backed by a powerful, corrupt oligarch but then, instead of being a puppet, came alive with his own leadership skills and a will of his own. Maybe the Ukrainian people sensed this when they voted for him.

Hi everyone: I just want to make a point that might seem silly and a bit obvious but that I hope might make things seem a bit more black and white.

State A invades State B without provocation, committing war crimes and the murder of civilians while denying B's right to exist.

What would be the 'neutral' position here?

The 'neutral' position if you knew nothing of the background and context would be to say A is in the wrong.

Saying both are equally wrong would actually be a position strongly favourable to A and negative towards B. Because A has clearly committed acts that are grossly wrong.

Anyone who says they are 'neutral' on this or think both sides are are wrong as each other is coming from a blatantly pro-Kremlin position. There's not a huge point arguing with them because they know what they're saying, its just a distraction.

[quote ScrollingLeaves]@otille
Have you read the Financial Times article Aristalese posted at 08.04?

It was written March 5 2021.
It goes into detail about the election of Zelensky backed by Kolomoisky, and the subsequent US sanctioning of Kolomoisky to help Zelensky overturn the corruption in the country.

It is certainly extraordinary that an actor/comedian became the president of Ukraine backed by a powerful, corrupt oligarch but then, instead of being a puppet, came alive with his own leadership skills and a will of his own. Maybe the Ukrainian people sensed this when they voted for him.[/quote]
Yes one of the extraordinary things about his leadership at the moment is most of my Ukrainian friends were not very impressed with him when he was standing for election: they were worried about whether he would have the skills to represent Ukraine seriously. What most analysis have said is that he is a very good manager who recognises that others are better placed to make decisions about e.g. military tactics than him, so he gives them the support to get on with it. And he focuses on an area where his PR skills are a massive boost, in leadership, diplomacy, rallying the people of Ukraine. It's really hard from a PR and diplomacy perspective to find any examples of him putting a foot wrong in the past two weeks. His twitter use is exemplary (he's managed to make western countries feel like they're competing for good coverage!), his videos disproving Kremlin propaganda about him are perfectly placed, his messaging in speeches to government is lively and powerful.

I think if there were doubts from people before, I would understand them. But anyone who tries to claim now that Zelensky is not enjoying the support of Ukraine is on another planet. Probably one with Russian state TV!!!

A brief update on DB - how things can go from 'not practical' to 'it's happening' within less than a day:

www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-bank-ceo-gets-20-pay-rise-2021-2022-03-11/

[quote Aristalese]A brief update on DB - how things can go from 'not practical' to 'it's happening' within less than a day:

www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-bank-ceo-gets-20-pay-rise-2021-2022-03-11/[/quote]
With so many companies pulling out of Russia, I think the ‘practical’ argument would be hard to sustain anyway.

It just raises massive red flags about their clients.

@otille

No I haven't read the full thread, only came on here today there are 900 posts? *@Aristalese*

I've explained my stand, as a Russian who has lived in both countries. Who is neither pro Russia nor pro Ukraine. Sorry if my posts are not useful, I'll leave

I'm sorry but apart from hoping to derail, I genuinely have zero idea what you are wanting from this.

You come on here saying 'everything you have said is wrong' while simultaneously admitting to not reading any of it. And then throw around 'both sides are equally wrong' while only one of them is chucking cluster munitions at civilians.

Which means in actual fact you have a pro-Russian viewpoint. We have had others on this thread, there is no problem you sharing this if you do so genuinely, honestly and in a factual way. Unfortunately that is not easy to do as I think it's fair to say in this situation that facts have a bit of an anti-Putin bias.

The only actual point you've made is claiming that Zelensky is as corrupt as Russia. Which as others have gone through is clearly not correct.

He's got a legal degree.
Like Putin .
Many leaders or people in politics have one.
It's a good foundation for politics.

[quote otille]@Aristalese
Ok, how would you feel if a comedian with no political experience was chosen to rule the UK? When UK was going through an 8 year war?
Say James Corden. Or Peter Kay. And then it gets found out that James Corden is very close friends/business partners with an oligarch who is sanctioned by the US for corruption?
[/quote]
To be fair, apart from the 8 year war, this description is not far off from what we actually have in Johnson. Corruption is everywhere in politics the world over.

Even if everything you say is true, none of it excuses Putin's invasion of and war crimes in Ukraine.

A friend of a friend made this comment which might interest people. He has lived all over the world so often has interesting and informed viewpoints beyond my experience.
In a recently Interview, Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert who served as a Russian Doctrine & Strategy specialist in the Defense Intelligence Agency, was asked to assess the effectiveness of the Russian sanctions. Her reaction was “minimal, the Russians have a history of suffering and no amount of sanctions can compare to the suffering that socialism caused”

I just hope the sanctions can stop the war machine before the hardship and state propaganda turn the ordinary Russians totally against the West

Her reaction was “minimal, the Russians have a history of suffering and no amount of sanctions can compare to the suffering that socialism caused”

I find this interesting because as far as I can see

1. Russians don’t always just put up with things - their revolution was relatively recent.

2. there has been suffering in Russia in the last century, but younger people everywhere are used to a far more globalised lifestyle. Can you put that genie back in the bottle?

@Merrymouse

Her reaction was “minimal, the Russians have a history of suffering and no amount of sanctions can compare to the suffering that socialism caused”

I find this interesting because as far as I can see

1. Russians don’t always just put up with things - their revolution was relatively recent.

2. there has been suffering in Russia in the last century, but younger people everywhere are used to a far more globalised lifestyle. Can you put that genie back in the bottle?

I think there is definitely a strong element of this I would agree with. There will be popular pressure. And it's hard to compare time periods because there is now an established Russian middle class, and whole generations who have not grown up like this.

However the main thing I don't think that that quote addresses: sanctions are not just about getting a message across to ordinary people. They are about making the country ungovernable, and they are about destroying its finances to the point where the war machine grinds to a halt.

IF we were doing sanctions purely to get ordinary people to go against Putin: I would agree they are unlikely to be successful. However that's only one small part of why sanctions are used.

If anyone wants a laugh: Putin is threatening to counter-sanction now. Which would be quite funny as it would essentially mean they would be voluntarily making the sanctions against them worse.

An interesting point on sanctions: remember that the west buys a lot of energy from Russia. However many of their sanctions means Russia will no longer be able to import the tools and machinery used for energy extraction. So a partial energy sanction could occur in effect.