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Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

990 replies

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 12:29

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
Tigersonvaseline · 05/03/2022 18:10

Thanks op.

Twas ever thus the problem.

Putin will do exactly what he wants and as usual the Goodies have one arm tied behind their backs.

It's so frustrating.

PestorPeston · 05/03/2022 18:11

Hyphens on Mumsnet can be used to strike through words ~ is better to make your point

ElasaandAnna · 05/03/2022 18:13

Photo to show how I see things on the App.

Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues
MagicFox · 05/03/2022 18:14

Is all hope of negotiation gone? If it is inevitable that Russia will take Ukraine then why can't a peace deal be negotiated to prevent more deaths?

PestorPeston · 05/03/2022 18:14

Thanks @WhatsGoingOn2022 I just thought that Putin and Bennett holding a 2.5 hour face to face meeting today might be a good sign.

ThroughThickAndThin01 · 05/03/2022 18:15

There is currently a dingdong on another thread about boycotting Russian goods. Some posters don’t want to because it will hurt the normal Russian wo/man on the street. Reading your posts - we need to be doing this as it would in turn destabilise the Russian economy and therefore hamper Putins influence. Is that correct and we should boycott everything Russian?

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:15

@letmesleep123

"See the people who came out to protest FOR Russia in the last week--in Russia it was Neo Nazis, in Serbia it was people who perpetrated the genocide in Bosnia"

@WhatsGoingOn2022 with all due respect to the way you view the situation, statements like this are inflammatory and not based on facts, but your own personal opinions.

You cannot possibly be suggesting that everyone supporting Russia are Neo-Nazis?

In any case, you are entitled to your own views, however, on a platform like this, where we have no way to verify that you are qualified to be an expert, perhaps you need to refrain from making statements like the one above.

Yes ok this is fair, there certainly are some supporters who are not Neo Nazis. I will admit however to finding it incredibly hard to find any active advocates of this action who don't come under quite unsavoury groupings. Within Russia there is the Kremlin circle, who are mostly at least publicly supportive. There are as I said separately some Russian 'influencers' on social media who have supported the war, wearing shirts with the Z.

Outside of Russia to be honest though it is very hard to find anyone who backs this war. Genuinely. It's only really in countries with a similar past of aggression like Serbia that there has been much public support. Also in Eritriea, which has a Russian-backed dictator. There has been back and forth condemnation and support from the Taliban too.

Everything I say here will of course have a bit of opinion mixed in. I'll try to keep it more direct--but on this point, outside of Russia I genuinely do think there is little support outside of some very unsavoury groups. I would welcome evidence to the contrary, I have not seen any anywhere.

On the Neo nazis point, I'm not saying that to be like 'boooo Nazis', I am talking about actual genuine neo nazis, swastika tattoos and all. There is a significant grouping of them in Russia

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JolkienRolkienRolkienTolkien · 05/03/2022 18:16

This is really interesting OP, thank you. I have to admit though, I was a bit confused whether or not I was supposed to read the crossed out text.

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:16

@ElasaandAnna

Photo to show how I see things on the App.
Ah shoot sorry! I will stop :)
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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:18

@PestorPeston

Thanks *@WhatsGoingOn2022* I just thought that Putin and Bennett holding a 2.5 hour face to face meeting today might be a good sign.
Oooooh that is exciting!! Sorry I am actually a couple of hours out of the news, between this and lunch. Longest I've disconnected from the news in days so has been a lovely break. That is a brilliant sign and actually something that I think we could all be hopeful for. The world needs a bloody good mediator right now
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fungh · 05/03/2022 18:19

fingers x that Israel's intervention may help but haven't a few oligarchs got Israeli citizenship?

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:31

@ThroughThickAndThin01

There is currently a dingdong on another thread about boycotting Russian goods. Some posters don’t want to because it will hurt the normal Russian wo/man on the street. Reading your posts - we need to be doing this as it would in turn destabilise the Russian economy and therefore hamper Putins influence. Is that correct and we should boycott everything Russian?
Yeah that thread is part of the reason I made this one.

People need to understand what sanctions actually are, yes there is a small part about making clear to the ordinary person on the street in Russia that they are a pariah state, that the world condemns them. A bit of a 'south africa' effect. The ordinary man and woman on the street will see the effect this has on their country and their lives, and will ask if it is really worth it. It's about targeting that significant section of the public who don't care hugely either way, so they're fine with dropping it if it means e.g. coke on the shelves, life back to normal.

There were borderline riots in Ikea stores when they decided to close (which BTW was only after a concerted campaign), which did not go down well in Ukraine, to say the least. To see seemingly more people charging to get their Billy bookcase than opposing the mass slaughter is not a good look. This does all help to make a country harder to govern, which stops military adventurism.

BUT this is only a tiny part of what sanctions are. The main reason sanctions are used is they help to stop the war machine, not immediately but in time. This is especially crucial now that Putin has made clear he is a danger to the rest of Europe. We simply cannot afford to let him be able to continue.

To understand sanctions it probably helps to think of the start of the second world war. One of Hitler's key policy was Autarky, meaning making Germany self sufficient. So this meant it wouldn't need to import and also was making all its own eg technology and weaponry. This meant even cutting Germany off from the outside world would nor stop the war machine. Luckily, with Russia it is a very different situation. They are hugely reliant on outside cash and supplies, so we have the opportunity through crippling their economy to make continuing the war very difficult, and expanding it impossible.

It's more complex than that in practice, but another key thing to know is how the central bank of a country works to stabilise the economy. The specific sanctions on the Russian Central Bank removes these tools. It's crucial to stop Russia being able to access dollars, euros and pounds, make its currency plunge and make it impossible for it to source necessary materials. There are specific materials like computer chips that would be directly used in the war, so cutting off these specific supplies is also a mammoth boost.

So yes in short, I would definitely recommend it. Money spent on Russian products is money that ultimately boots the Russian economy, undermines sanctions and funds the war machine. A percentage of that money you spend on the goods would go towards that military spending (and that percentage is likely to vastly increase with!). So getting western companies out of Russia and boycotting everything Russian, in concert with the military support and diplomatic work, is how we bring this to an end.

Another element of course though is that this internal pressure puts pressure on Putin to go to the negating table, both from internal sources and knowing he can no longer finance the war.

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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:32

@JolkienRolkienRolkienTolkien

This is really interesting OP, thank you. I have to admit though, I was a bit confused whether or not I was supposed to read the crossed out text.
Sorry! I just write with a lot of dashes, they were not intended to be crossed out
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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:33

@fungh

fingers x that Israel's intervention may help but haven't a few oligarchs got Israeli citizenship?
I think so, although that's not necessarily a bad thing. Israel are quite pro US so a bit of extra Russian linkage might help them seem like a neutral option
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Aristalese · 05/03/2022 18:36

NCd for this as it's outing.

OP, I congratulate you for this thread. I too have very close personal links with the region and I am also professionally involved to some extent.

I agree with everything you've said. Finally a thread that is accurate and reliable. There was so much nonsense in UK media and on MN in the past week and a half that I didn't bother commenting because there has been way too much to unpick.

There's so much I have to say on this topic though. Today, I'm finding it really hard though.

Thank you for the sterling job on this thread though, the Western societies really do not understand Russia. They do not understand what it's like to live in the shadow of Russia either. It's so important to gain this understanding, for all of us. So thank you. I will contribute when I'm more up to it. Flowers

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:37

@AhhWoof

Do you have any idea why the large column of Russian military vehicles outside Kyiv seems to have been stationary but not being attacked for so long?
Ah yes now this one is fun!!

So: they attacked and took out the front, I think yesterday, and are basically just leaving them for now. They were actually not one group originally but multiple ones, but they broke down, ran out of gas. Senior commanders were sent to the front to sort it out so Ukraine took them out with snipers. Now they can't move forward because the front is destroyed, so they might have to move back. They can't go off road because its 'mud season'. I would recommend googling mud season and USSR military history, basically when the ground melts tanks etc simply get stuck. So Ukraine have already stolen dozens of tanks this way, by finding them abandoned in mud and pulling them out with tractors.

I think at this moment there's probably an element of waiting them out and not wasting munitions on them. They aren't going anywhere and they're running out of food

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1dayatatime · 05/03/2022 18:43

@WhatsGoingOn2022

"On the Neo nazis point, I'm not saying that to be like 'boooo Nazis', I am talking about actual genuine neo nazis, swastika tattoos and all. There is a significant grouping of them in Russia"

++++

My concern here is that the Ukrainian side views the Russian attack as being influenced or driven by Russian nazis, however Putin is arguing that one of the reasons he is attacking Ukraine is to de nazify the Ukrainian Government, hell even in Canada Trudeau labelled the truckers protesting as Nazis because of one swatiska flag which was in fact being used to link the actions of Trudeau being Nazi like. More recently Trudeau's deputy was pictured holding a Ukrainian far right / Nazi flag.

It seems to me that the term "Nazi" is being thrown around so much by whatever side to justify their actions against the other side that it is now becoming meaningless, (that is unless you dress up in a uniform with a toothbrush moustache and a stiff arm salute).

So has the Russian attack been influenced / encouraged by nazis, highly unlikely. Is the Ukrainian Government full of far right Nazis, highly unlikely. We're the Canadian truckers nazis, highly unlikely. Etc Etc

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:44

@Aristalese

NCd for this as it's outing.

OP, I congratulate you for this thread. I too have very close personal links with the region and I am also professionally involved to some extent.

I agree with everything you've said. Finally a thread that is accurate and reliable. There was so much nonsense in UK media and on MN in the past week and a half that I didn't bother commenting because there has been way too much to unpick.

There's so much I have to say on this topic though. Today, I'm finding it really hard though.

Thank you for the sterling job on this thread though, the Western societies really do not understand Russia. They do not understand what it's like to live in the shadow of Russia either. It's so important to gain this understanding, for all of us. So thank you. I will contribute when I'm more up to it. Flowers

Thank you so much @Aristalese, I hope you're doing ok. It's a horrendous time, I find keeping busy and talking about it is the only way to get through. And this is perhaps one of the few times when knowing more about the topic makes it less reassuring.
OP posts:
LongSummers · 05/03/2022 18:56

OP thank you for such an interesting thread, fascinating reading

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:56

[quote 1dayatatime]@WhatsGoingOn2022

"On the Neo nazis point, I'm not saying that to be like 'boooo Nazis', I am talking about actual genuine neo nazis, swastika tattoos and all. There is a significant grouping of them in Russia"

++++

My concern here is that the Ukrainian side views the Russian attack as being influenced or driven by Russian nazis, however Putin is arguing that one of the reasons he is attacking Ukraine is to de nazify the Ukrainian Government, hell even in Canada Trudeau labelled the truckers protesting as Nazis because of one swatiska flag which was in fact being used to link the actions of Trudeau being Nazi like. More recently Trudeau's deputy was pictured holding a Ukrainian far right / Nazi flag.

It seems to me that the term "Nazi" is being thrown around so much by whatever side to justify their actions against the other side that it is now becoming meaningless, (that is unless you dress up in a uniform with a toothbrush moustache and a stiff arm salute).

So has the Russian attack been influenced / encouraged by nazis, highly unlikely. Is the Ukrainian Government full of far right Nazis, highly unlikely. We're the Canadian truckers nazis, highly unlikely. Etc Etc[/quote]
On Neo Nazis--I'm talking actual Neo Nazis here, not using it as a throw around term. As one example, one of Putin's attempted hits on Zelensky this was was using his special mercenary group, called The Wagners. They are a Neo Nazi group who serve as Putin's militia overseas as a Russian secret services, again not using the Nazi term as a throw around. Their leader is Dmitry Utkin who literally has SS swastika and nazi eagle tattoos:

twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1499683224825569286

and you can read more about the history of the group here: twitter.com/youranoncentral/status/1253066894208233473?lang=en-GB

Or an official article on it here:
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/volodymyr-zelensky-russian-mercenaries-ordered-to-kill-ukraine-president-cvcksh79d

There are also lots of genuine Neo Nazi groups in Russia, it is a sigificant issue. If you want to read about them more, google it and change the date range to exclude the last month as you'll get only Ukraine stories. But as an example: this is the Russian Imperial Movement, who even run training camps where they are joined by German Neo Nazis:

www.rferl.org/a/german-neo-nazi-training-in-russia/30655860.html

OP posts:
KindlyKanga · 05/03/2022 19:00

Thank you so much for all your time

Cassimin · 05/03/2022 19:02

Thanks for all of this info, I found myself watching the childrens segment on sky news this morning so I could try to understand the history around it all.
I can’t agree more about the sanctions, we can only hope that when it starts to affect the man on the street they will see through the propaganda and lies they are being fed.
I’m hoping that when this is all over we never let the Kremlin get so powerful that they can do this again. I also worry about China having so much power and influence in our economy.

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 19:06

@Cassimin

Thanks for all of this info, I found myself watching the childrens segment on sky news this morning so I could try to understand the history around it all. I can’t agree more about the sanctions, we can only hope that when it starts to affect the man on the street they will see through the propaganda and lies they are being fed. I’m hoping that when this is all over we never let the Kremlin get so powerful that they can do this again. I also worry about China having so much power and influence in our economy.
I think this is exactly right. A lot of deeply unsavoury regimes have spent a lot of time carefully investing in the UK and getting their tentacles into every aspect of our culture, business and politics. This is welcomed by those outside of the defence sphere because it gets funding for things, but at times like this we see the true cost that this actually has. I think this incident has opened people eyes's, and we are by no means the worse affected.

Germany is possibly in the worst state of all. Angela Merkel's reputation has a deep stain after this incident, as her Economic and foreign policy direction has now left Germany in the position of either (a) going along with Russia's invasion or (b) being hugely economically exposed to the fall out

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Cookiecrumble22 · 05/03/2022 19:08

It seems alot of countries are against what putin is doing. So why is he still breathing? And what would happen if he was killed ? Is his life even in danger ?

LongSummers · 05/03/2022 19:12

I’ve just seen that the FCDO have updated their travel advice regarding Russia “to advise British nationals whose presence in Russia is not essential to consider leaving by remaining commercial routes” - what do you think the FCDO are predicting will be happening within Russia to trigger this update?

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