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Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

990 replies

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 12:29

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:11

@MagicFox

1. What do you mean by "use Ukraine as a base to launch attacks on other states." Are you saying Putin intends to take this further than Ukraine? Which states?
  1. You mention "China's plans for the West". What do you mean by this? What are these plans?
A good place to look for information on China and their plans for the west is the Chinese Research Group and in particular the debates are Huawei. Huawei were ultimately blocked from playing a core role in the UK tech infrastructure, and if you ask me for good bloody reason made even more evident in the last week. It's pretty grim reading but the links between business investments and defence policy is very strong--China and Russia use these in a similar way. To see these in action, it's worth checking out Chinese policy in Africa. Let's just say it's not aid!!
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Mumblechum0 · 05/03/2022 17:22

Pm

MagicFox · 05/03/2022 17:24

@WhatsGoingOn2022 thank you

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:25

@stairway

Hi OP, my husband is from a none western country and believes there is a lot of hypocrisy from the west regarding Russia, many outside the west feel this is no different to the Cuban missile crisis and Russia have genuine concerns regarding NATO and the USA. Particularly given US history of invading and destroying countries on a whim. Do you feel there is a media bias in this country too or do you agree with how things are reported in this country. There doesn’t seem to be any attempt to understand the Russian position at all. Why are Europeans valued above people from the Middle East/Africa?
I have little shrift for this position unfortunately--there are a lot of criticisms of American foreign and defence policy that are absolutely justified, and that I share. But this type of commentary on NATO is the result of very successful and insidious Kremlin propaganda. It is worth seeing quite how much the Kremlin pumps into getting RT and similar channels into countries overseas, precisely for this purpose.

Firstly, NATO is a defensive alliance. The whole point of it is that if one country is attached, they will be defended by the others (Article 5)--essentially they treat it as an attack on them. NATO has not been expanding into post-soviet countries recently. They have however had post-soviet countries begging for their help because Russia has been repeatedly launching assaults on them. Think hacking attacks, little military adventures, assassinations, attempts to destabilise the state, etc alongside threats.

US foreign policy in the last 5? 10? years has basically been to not get involved. Look at their complete withdrawal from Afghanistan--letting it fall to the Taliban, who are more than friendly with Putin.

Ask your husband this: why has Russia seen fit to invade Ukraine at the time in history when it seemed most likely that the west were not interested in its fate, and most likely to let Putin away without even a slap on the wrist? Putin has been emboldened by a western foreign policy of non-intervention, perhaps the best demonstration of which is Germany's prioritisation under Merkel of trade over any defence at all. The west encouraged this to happen NOT be threatening Russia but the opposite--by giving a signal to Putin that he could get away with even more murder, this time on their doorstep.

In terms of understanding the Russian position: I do understand it, very well. Unfortunately that makes me utterly reject it, as it is imperialistic bravado that sees other states that seek to just get on with life as opportunities for chest beating. See the people who came out to protest FOR Russia in the last week--in Russia it was Neo Nazis, in Serbia it was people who perpetrated the genocide in Bosnia.

Look at what Putin has done in Syria and Eritrea if you want to talk about caring about people from the Middle East and Africa. Putin has done intentional mass slaughter of civilians in a way not seen since perhaps the Korean War or the Second World War (actually or the Bosnian genocide, which incidentally many of his commanders were involved in). Look at Chechnya and the people there who support him. I'm afraid it's not a controversial or clever point he's making, frankly it's ignorant.

I am yet to think of one example of Putin's foreign policy being either genuinely defensive or doing any sort of good. This is a man who uses chemical weapons on civilians, intentionally targets hospitals, utilises 'humanitarian ceasefires' as an opportunity to round up civilians and kill them.

OP posts:
lemongreentea · 05/03/2022 17:29

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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:32

@NutellaEllaElla

Thank you for your better educated and informed than me interpretations.

My worry has been, how could this possibly end? Putin doesn't strike me as the kind to give up or admit defeat. Also, is it true that some Russian soldiers have been defecting?

I've kind of answered the first one (at least as best I can...) so on the second one: soldiers defecting: yes.

Yes it has been true that soldiers are defecting, and in quite shockingly high numbers. You can see the evidence yourself online but I would really not recommend it as much of it is not pretty.

It's important to draw a distinction here though: there are different parts of the Russian army, and they are very different. The young conscripts, who are only older teenagers have been defecting in large numbers and in some cases have even withdrawnif you see a video I posted earlier of a senator in Russia, they had one group of 100 withdrawn and only I think 4 had not been either killed or captured. For those kind of guyssee this video: www.express.co.uk/news/world/1574901/Russia-Ukraine-War-Army-Soldier-POW-fed-phone-call-video-VN and also this famous text making the rounds: www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-soldiers-final-text-message-26360187

However, any attempts to paint a significant proportion of the Russian troops as some kind of victim is deeply questionable. Russia has been sending in troops who fought in Syria and elsewhere, we are talking people who intentionally rape and terrorise civilians they capture. You may have seen the Sky journalists who clearly identified themselves as journalists being shot. Likewise the army using cluster munitions and thermobaric weaponry (all banned in international law).

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HacketteofHacks · 05/03/2022 17:33

So OP could we be 'watching' and letting this war take up Russian efforts...
The longer it goes on the more decimated it will be.
It also costs a lot of money and the Russian economy isn't huge.
So if I were Biden I'd be sitting and watching this out?

PestorPeston · 05/03/2022 17:34

Do you put any hopes on Israel mediating?
www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-zelensky-speak-for-second-time-since-start-of-ukraine-crisis

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:37

@Tigersonvaseline

Do you think he has something up his sleeve re capturing the nuclear plant's? He could rig them And hold the whole war to ransom??
The question of what the hell Putin is doing with those nuclear plants is defiantly making the rounds. To be clear though, one big part of this is just to get them shut down--Putin is intentionally targeting this kind of civilian infrastructure to starve/freeze civilians. So there is a genuine (if banned under international law) reason for this.

BUT also I don't think we can discount some wider plan here. One thing that terrifies me (but I am by no means saying is on the table) is the possibility of them being part of some false flag or ultimate takedown idea--like if he can't win Ukraine, he can at least blow it up. There have been reports that some troops also sought to plant explosives to use as a threat, but I'm not certain on whether they were successful.

The one thing I will sayI am not a nuclear expert and neither are most of the people writing headlines in newspapers!!! A power plant overheating and exploding is not the same thing as one being smashed, and I have seen experts roll their eyes the last few days at the commentary. It's definitely scary, but may be overblown. Regardless, totally unacceptable and needs to be stoppedit's clearly intended as a threat to Europe, although how the nearest neighbour (Belarus, Putin's ally) feels about that, I don't know.

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ElasaandAnna · 05/03/2022 17:39

Could you please stop using the strike through in your posts OP? Thanks

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:39

@katepilar

As far as I know in 1968 the Russion soldiers didnt know either that what they were doing is an invasion.
I think you're right on that--Russia has a long history of war tactics that are deeply questionable just for what they do to their own side. In particular the use of conscripts and virtually untrained young men essentially as cannon fodder
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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:46

@Cookiecrumble22

So today the was meant to be a ceasefire so civilians can leave. Yet his army start shooting . Was this a set up so he can kill more people?
Yes. Putin has done this exact same thing on multiple occasions, see Syria for example. Luckily Ukraine was aware in advance and very careful about it. They also have a track record of doing their own 'humanitarian evacuations' where they gather up civilians in buses and then use them as human shields. There were unconfirmed reports of them trying exactly this in Ukraine, but Ukrainian media has informed people of these tactics.

They are utterly vile and wholly intentional breaches of international law. There are already (I think as yet unconfirmed) reports of them using mass rapes yet again as a purposeful tool of war. I'm not talking on an individual soldier level, but on a planned and systemic basis. They've also been intentionally shooting journalists and ambulances, as well as transporting weaponry disguised as ambulances. And sending in troops dressed in Ukrainian military outfits. All breaches.

This is why I get so enraged by attempts to compare what Russia does and is doing with other western countries at war. While the US and others have committed provable war crimes, unless you go back as far as Korea it's hard to find examples of them being so planned and intentional and on such a scale. The Kremlin's army is a whole other level of barbarity.

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cabansunset · 05/03/2022 17:46

Thank you OP, I'm finding this thread very informative.

(And on a lighter note, I'm finding it particularly interesting navigating all the strikethrough text! )

letmesleep123 · 05/03/2022 17:47

"See the people who came out to protest FOR Russia in the last week--in Russia it was Neo Nazis, in Serbia it was people who perpetrated the genocide in Bosnia"

@WhatsGoingOn2022 with all due respect to the way you view the situation, statements like this are inflammatory and not based on facts, but your own personal opinions.

You cannot possibly be suggesting that everyone supporting Russia are Neo-Nazis?

In any case, you are entitled to your own views, however, on a platform like this, where we have no way to verify that you are qualified to be an expert, perhaps you need to refrain from making statements like the one above.

JTK392 · 05/03/2022 17:47

The strike through isn’t showing up for me. I can see the double dashes but no strike through Confused

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:48

@Cocycola

I know you don't have a crystal ball, and this is quite dramatic a question, but from what you know, do you think the likelihood is that this could escalate and become world war 3?
I genuinely don't know. The terrifying thing is that there is no clear road out of this, and reports of Putin's health make this even more worrying. That's why we need to go fast and strong with the sanctions, in every possible area. Turning his economy into a wasteland is the quickest way to take his options off the table.
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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:56

@Newjobformoremoney

Where does Africa (and more specifically South Africa) stand in all of this? I saw they abstained from a UN vote
It's a very interesting question and quite a difficult one because of how many different states and relationships are at play there. Russia and China both have a lot of strong relationships across Africa, Russia also spends quite a bit on getting their media across the continent. However Ukraine also has a lot of students from Africa so there are strong links there too. I'm trying to find a specific twitter thread an academic started on the topic, tracking all different African states, but I can't find it yet

This is good: www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/ukraine-african-leaders-condemn-russia-invasion-but-some-remain-silent.html

and also this on South Africa: twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497543796770459651

One other thing to consider: Ukraine is one of the biggest sources of grain in the world. Part of the reason why this invasion will be felt worldwide will be in the massive rise in grain prices, which will really hit places like Egypt reliant on imports

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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 17:58

@HacketteofHacks

So OP could we be 'watching' and letting this war take up Russian efforts... The longer it goes on the more decimated it will be. It also costs a lot of money and the Russian economy isn't huge. So if I were Biden I'd be sitting and watching this out?
I don't know, but it's very much a possibility. It's incredible to think what little time has passed, and how weakened Russia has become already. So I don't think it's off the table--but would be watching and continuing to (a) arm Ukraine and (b) destroy the Russian economy
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AhhWoof · 05/03/2022 18:04

Do you have any idea why the large column of Russian military vehicles outside Kyiv seems to have been stationary but not being attacked for so long?

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:04

[quote PestorPeston]Do you put any hopes on Israel mediating?
www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-zelensky-speak-for-second-time-since-start-of-ukraine-crisis[/quote]
I think it's a difficult one. Ukraine has huge Jewish links (Zelensky himself is also Jewish), and Russia bombing a prominent Holocaust memorial didn't go down well. While Israel have given aid they have not provided military support--Zelensky has openly asked for the Iron Dome and was turned down (Israel has a lot of very high tech military stuff, much of it American). Netanyahu has come under a lot of criticism for taking a bit of a 'don't get involved' stance. Israel of course isn't in NATO.

HOWEVER: I am conflicted on how helpful it would actually be for Israel to help Ukraine out too much (this is my view here btw, not speaking for any other commentators as far as I'm aware at this point). The Kremlin have such good propaganda reach across the middle east and could use this as a means to leverage support from other Arab nations that are currently on the sidelines. So in the medium and longer term it could be damaging.

Israel might be seen as too pro-US to mediateI've seen Turkey and the Saudis raised. Turkey is NATO but until now at least has been uncomfortably close to Russiabut they've been giving Ukraine a decent bit of support. Saudis might be closest to natural. Not sure if anyone else in the game--India and China don't seem to want it.

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WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:05

@ElasaandAnna

Could you please stop using the strike through in your posts OP? Thanks
Hi! Sorry could you explain what this is? It looks normal to me
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ThroughThickAndThin01 · 05/03/2022 18:07

It’s normal to me, no strikethrough on ops posts.

Alcoh · 05/03/2022 18:07

I don’t see any strike throughs either. Thanks OP - I find this really informative. I think the majority of people can read it realising some things are facts and others are opinion. All very interesting. Thanks again.

WhatsGoingOn2022 · 05/03/2022 18:08

@cabansunset

Thank you OP, I'm finding this thread very informative.

(And on a lighter note, I'm finding it particularly interesting navigating all the strikethrough text! )

Oops sorry have figured out what I was doing! Won't do again
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JTK392 · 05/03/2022 18:08

@WhatsGoingOn2022 you are typing double hyphens and they are causing formatting problems for some readers