Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Thanks OP. Upthread you mentioned Russia being part of China’s plans for the west, which sounds very ominous… what are these plans?

I think you'll find that there are plenty of former Russian spies who have angered the regime and oligarchs who may have done the same and who live/d in the UK and who Russia chose to remove (and did).

London is a world capital of money laundering particularly in property. Russia is now throwing toys out of the pram because this is finally being addressed and it'll hurt their rich a lot.

[quote HelpMeHiveMind]**@DownNative* and @WhatsGoingOn22* - Yes, interesting that you call out the Salisbury poisonings, Down, as an example of seeking to undermine Britain on their own soil. It is why I questioned whether Putin is more focused on any particular NATO countries over others, because I'm not aware of similar attacks in other NATO countries? Also, since this latest Ukraine war began, the Russian team have specifically called out Liz Truss (albeit not in name), and today stated they see London as the forefront 'agressor' re sanctions and provision of weapons. Despite the fact that other NATO countries have provided more weapons and sanctions.

Do Russia have a particular thorn in their side for England and, worse, are they sowing the seeds of a narrative to justify an attack. Or, are we in the UK just getting a biased reporting narrative and in fact if I was in, say, the US I'd be reading more about threats levelled at America. Ditto for France? [/quote]
One thing I'll say about the first part, it is impossible to overstate quite how many provocations Putin has given over the years to various NATO countries. I don't think there is one that hasn't received some sort of purposeful insult. Intentionally pushing always, to demonstrate how weak the west is in their acceptance of his actions.

While the UK's response has not been impeccable the the last week, it does have to be given credit for the work it did ahead of this latest crisis. Most notably in training and arming the Ukrainian army, I think Penny Mordaunt was involved at one point. It means they have a well organised and discipled army, who already know how to use a wider range of weapons.

I believe he did actually call out Truss by name, it was something like I'm not going to name them but it was Liz Truss. It went down amongst some left wing circles exactly as it was meant to but Keir Starmer did not take the bait, and continued his support for a strong position. Russia is well aware of the far left groupings in British politics who are frankly just Kremlin apologists (remember Corbyn during Salisbury).

Truss can be messy but overall I think should take it as a compliment.

On the subject of Nazis, the difference between the groups in Russia you are referring to and the Ukrainian Nazi movement is that Ukraine legalised them by actually making them part of National Guard.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

I come from Eastern Ukraine and still have family, including my parents in Donetsk and Mariupol. Regardless of who is behind the Donbass conflict, atrocities by Azov make any other army look like children's playfighting. They are well known for rape/torture civilians and any other extreme violence you can think of. Mariupol is their base so I really do know what I am talking about here.

When the 2014 conflict started, Ukrainian and Donbass army were refusing to shoot each other as they pretty much grew up together so to speak. Many were switching sides. So Azov was brought into the region. They had no problem killing anyone who stood in their way on either side.

For 8 years they have been terrorising civilians, with 15,000 dead in the region. I am talking about an official part of the Ukrainian army killing it's own citizens.

There were many pictures similar to the ones making headlines today, dead children, pensioners starving etc etc but somehow it got close to none coverage in western media.

There is absolutely no justification for what is happening in Ukraine today, but a hard line approach should be taken on any military conflict, internal or external. Perhaps if Ukraine showed some leniency to views of its own citizens in the East in 2014 and since, Putin would have had one less excuse to invade.

Thanks for this thread. I am interested in your thoughts on the parallels between this situation and the lead-up to WWII, and the role of the treaty of Versailles vs current sanctions.

@CorneliusVetch

Thanks OP. Upthread you mentioned Russia being part of China’s plans for the west, which sounds very ominous… what are these plans?

You may remember that only recently there was a scandal about a Chinese national suspected of being a spy who had successfully got herself involved in British politics.

My views on China are quite strongly of the position that we should be very cautious. For background to Chinese foreign policy I'd start with Kissinger's On China, and for something of my views there look at the work of the MP Tom Tugendhat:

www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2022/01/the-uk-must-abandon-democratic-defeatism-if-its-to-stand-up-to-china

qz.com/2007290/tom-tugendhat-the-politician-warning-of-chinas-cage-rattling/

Russia is well aware of the far left groupings in British politics who are frankly just Kremlin apologists (remember Corbyn during Salisbury).

This is perfectly put. And this attitude sadly continues with clueless remarks from Diane Abbott this week, for example. Her ignorance is painful to everyone with links to the affected countries.

@powershowerforanhour

"Much of the Kremlin were not made aware of this plan--one key aspect of this is the economic modelling of war and sanctions, which were not done. "

So...they didn't work out how much it was likely to cost? At all?

Sorry I had a good twitter source on this and then lost it... I'll see if I can find the details. But in summary what I have seen suggests that in essence the prep work they were given for economic modelling was very narrow, so they are now looking at a much wider hit without even the ground work analysis done, let alone any work on how to actual counteract this. Plus the sanctions affecting their central bank will make many of their key tools reductant. It's an impossible position for those tasked with sorting it. They are keeping the stock markets closed and have started introducing emergency measures.

For now, the best representation I have seen of the situation is a photograph of plates leaning against a cupboard door, going to smash as soon as it is opened

This is a brilliant thread, thank you x

To add some balance to the long post regarding the Russian army and alleged war crimes. A few excerpts regarding Ukrainian army and their conduct since the 2014 conflict.

"Human rights violations and war crimes

A 2016 report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHA) has accused the Azov regiment of violating international humanitarian law.

The report detailed incidents over a period from November 2015-February 2016 where Azov had embedded their weapons and forces in used civilian buildings, and displaced residents after looting civilian properties. The report also accused the battalion of raping and torturing detainees in the Donbas region.

What has been the international response to Azov?

In June 2015, both Canada and the United States announced that their own forces will not support or train the Azov regiment, citing its neo-Nazi connections.

The following year, however, the US lifted the ban under pressure from the Pentagon.

In October 2019, 40 members of the US Congress led by Representative Max Rose signed a letter unsuccessfully calling for the US State Department to designate Azov as a “foreign terrorist organisation” (FTO). Last April, Representative Elissa Slotkin repeated the request – which included other white supremacist groups – to the Biden administration.

Transnational support for Azov has been wide, and Ukraine has emerged as a new hub for the far right across the world. Men from across three continents have been documented to join the Azov training units in order to seek combat experience and engage in similar ideology."

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

If you are interested to find out more, the article links to a 53 page document by the High Commissioner for Human Rights. There is a section on "Summary of executions, enforced disappearance, unlawful and arbitrary detention and torture and ill-treatment"

I will re-iterate - this is a report on conduct of the Ukrainian army.

Your post above re the Russian army was full of accusations, not backed up by anything but hearsay.

Can you explain more about what Money Laundry involves? I know that this is a common name for London in Russia.
I had friends who worked for a big restaurant group in London (owned by Russians) and they could all get mortgages via the company. It always seemed dodgy to me

Some more on how Azov has links to terrorist organisations around the world.

time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/

"After the worst such attack in recent years—the massacre of 51 people in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2019—an arm of the Azov movement helped distribute the terrorist’s raving manifesto, in print and online, seeking to glorify his crimes and inspire others to follow."

In their letter to the State Department in 2019, U.S. lawmakers noted that “the link between Azov and acts of terror in America is clear.”

Azov's recruitment building is in the center of Kyiv and is owned by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.

"in the context of the white-supremacist movement globally, Azov has no rivals on two important fronts: its access to weapons and its recruiting power."

[quote HelpMeHiveMind]**@DownNative* and @WhatsGoingOn22* - Yes, interesting that you call out the Salisbury poisonings, Down, as an example of seeking to undermine Britain on their own soil. It is why I questioned whether Putin is more focused on any particular NATO countries over others, because I'm not aware of similar attacks in other NATO countries? Also, since this latest Ukraine war began, the Russian team have specifically called out Liz Truss (albeit not in name), and today stated they see London as the forefront 'agressor' re sanctions and provision of weapons. Despite the fact that other NATO countries have provided more weapons and sanctions.

Do Russia have a particular thorn in their side for England and, worse, are they sowing the seeds of a narrative to justify an attack. Or, are we in the UK just getting a biased reporting narrative and in fact if I was in, say, the US I'd be reading more about threats levelled at America. Ditto for France? [/quote]
Russian operatives blew up ammunition storage depots at Vrbetice, Czechia (Czech Republic) in 2014, causing the deaths of two people who worked at the site.

The Czechs are NATO members, so Russian provocations isn't solely aimed at the United Kingdom.

It's fair to say that reporting of Russian threats against specific NATO members is more likely to be widely reported in that country and underreported in others. The aforementioned explosion in the Czech Republic still isn't common knowledge amongst the citizenry in the US or UK, for example.

Considering Russia has claimed that NATO is about US geopolitics, the USA would be Russia's biggest thorn in their side.

It's very unlikely that Russia is sowing the seeds for an attack on the UK itself. Putin's main concern is maintaining Russian control over the Russian sphere of influence. This includes stopping Ukraine and Georgia turning towards the West more and more. A new Soviet Union if you will.

Let's say Putin ( not Russia) dictator Putin is singling us out for some sort of " attack",
Honestly how long would Moscow survive for??
Surely there would be immediate retaliation.. immediate bombings of the Kremlin...all those troops ready to go would" sweep" into Ukraine And wipe out Russia quickly with superior weapons, fresh troops... superior air power.

In my view all we would have to worry about.. And it's a huge worry of course is China rushing to Putin's defence And Syria.. Pakistan.

But...if Putins forces inhaled one breath of UK air I've no doubt the response would be enormous!
It would have too be too prove a point!!

Down native, I'm hoping Liz Truss is under going fast training in diplomacy.

Hi OP, another one if I may - if trump is re-elected in 2024, might that embolden Putin?

I agree Kier is doing really well at the moment.
It hasn't cropped up on the various threads yet rhst Putin might be seeking to cause issues between the hard left And center right.

Cornelius.

Ummmm...you don't think Putin is already emboldens??

@Tigersonvaseline

Cornelius.

Ummmm...you don't think Putin is already emboldens??

Well obviously but I believe he invaded Ukraine because he thought he would get away with it. I believe he will think twice about invading a nato country. Whether he does so or not may depend on how he thinks America will react? I don’t know, that’s why I asked op.

@letmesleep123

On the subject of Nazis, the difference between the groups in Russia you are referring to and the Ukrainian Nazi movement is that Ukraine legalised them by actually making them part of National Guard.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

I come from Eastern Ukraine and still have family, including my parents in Donetsk and Mariupol. Regardless of who is behind the Donbass conflict, atrocities by Azov make any other army look like children's playfighting. They are well known for rape/torture civilians and any other extreme violence you can think of. Mariupol is their base so I really do know what I am talking about here.

When the 2014 conflict started, Ukrainian and Donbass army were refusing to shoot each other as they pretty much grew up together so to speak. Many were switching sides. So Azov was brought into the region. They had no problem killing anyone who stood in their way on either side.

For 8 years they have been terrorising civilians, with 15,000 dead in the region. I am talking about an official part of the Ukrainian army killing it's own citizens.

There were many pictures similar to the ones making headlines today, dead children, pensioners starving etc etc but somehow it got close to none coverage in western media.

There is absolutely no justification for what is happening in Ukraine today, but a hard line approach should be taken on any military conflict, internal or external. Perhaps if Ukraine showed some leniency to views of its own citizens in the East in 2014 and since, Putin would have had one less excuse to invade.

This

@Aristalese

What on earth has She Said now!??

@letmesleep123

To add some balance to the long post regarding the Russian army and alleged war crimes. A few excerpts regarding Ukrainian army and their conduct since the 2014 conflict.

"Human rights violations and war crimes

A 2016 report by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OCHA) has accused the Azov regiment of violating international humanitarian law.

The report detailed incidents over a period from November 2015-February 2016 where Azov had embedded their weapons and forces in used civilian buildings, and displaced residents after looting civilian properties. The report also accused the battalion of raping and torturing detainees in the Donbas region.

What has been the international response to Azov?

In June 2015, both Canada and the United States announced that their own forces will not support or train the Azov regiment, citing its neo-Nazi connections.

The following year, however, the US lifted the ban under pressure from the Pentagon.

In October 2019, 40 members of the US Congress led by Representative Max Rose signed a letter unsuccessfully calling for the US State Department to designate Azov as a “foreign terrorist organisation” (FTO). Last April, Representative Elissa Slotkin repeated the request – which included other white supremacist groups – to the Biden administration.

Transnational support for Azov has been wide, and Ukraine has emerged as a new hub for the far right across the world. Men from across three continents have been documented to join the Azov training units in order to seek combat experience and engage in similar ideology."

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

If you are interested to find out more, the article links to a 53 page document by the High Commissioner for Human Rights. There is a section on "Summary of executions, enforced disappearance, unlawful and arbitrary detention and torture and ill-treatment"

I will re-iterate - this is a report on conduct of the Ukrainian army.

Your post above re the Russian army was full of accusations, not backed up by anything but hearsay.

Great post

Following. Thank you for this thread

It's not only Ukraine ( again though) is it?

He's been running amok for absolutely years!

It's nerve wracking though I agree that we all so incredibly heavily rely on the us!!

All around the world!!

NATO members do need to increase their spending!. thank goodness Merkel has buggered off!! Imagine if she was still in charge????

Imagined!!!

It's gone very quiet from her hasn't it and how she's been a key architect of Putin's invasion??

So...I don't think we ..as a collective of nations in Europe should rely on the states so much I really don't.

• then it doesn't matter who is in the White House.