Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Thank you OP for this thread, it really has been so useful and educating for me.

I hope you're okay

Op you have done a tremendous service in starting this thread, it's a painful complex event, which you took a lot of time and effort to untangle. It's utterly heartbreaking what is happening, and incredibly emotional. Thank you x

@theDudesmummy

Oh right, you are not talking about new sanctions now?

I thought they were recent but maybe I’m wrong.

I'm kind of getting the hang of twitter.
I've read independent journalist accounts stating Russia is paying people in India and other Russia friendly countries to troll western news sources and polls as the comments from those countries or people purporting to be from those countries is increasing.
I expect this is the cyber war we have been warned about.

@Wintersonata

I've answered your question above.

They are fairly recent, it's been going on for a while but the latest decisions were last month.

@Obviouslynotallthere

I'm kind of getting the hang of twitter. I've read independent journalist accounts stating Russia is paying people in India and other Russia friendly countries to troll western news sources and polls as the comments from those countries or people purporting to be from those countries is increasing. I expect this is the cyber war we have been warned about.

Yes - I've witnessed this, there are plenty of trolls supposedly from Malaysia and other Asian countries 'supporting' Russia.

You couldn't make this up. Please be mindful of this kind of new-age propaganda - report, ignore, don't give them a platform. This is what they want.

@Obviouslynotallthere

I'm kind of getting the hang of twitter. I've read independent journalist accounts stating Russia is paying people in India and other Russia friendly countries to troll western news sources and polls as the comments from those countries or people purporting to be from those countries is increasing. I expect this is the cyber war we have been warned about.

Yes, I saw this this morning on a specialist forum I’m on. Clear first-time poster, with broken, in a written sense, English, supporting Russia- but specifically relevant to the specialist nature of the thread. It was deleted by the moderators.

Awwww thanks everyone for the lovely comments!! Stepping away for a bit was really good. Sorry for that though. I think I needed a break if I were to avoid slipping into just posting emotional drivel rather than anything actually productive.

I think you will have all gathered in the last few days that Russia is attempting to make an example of Mariupol and others, subjecting them to utterly inhumane treatment to try to terrify Ukraine into submission. This is a standard tactic of war for them unfortunately-I believe this was raised early on in the thread, with some voices telling me that I exaggerated Russia's planned barbarity.

Trust me, zero pleasure in that proving to be true.

WARNING

On the hospital in Mariupol: if you thought things couldn't sink any lower, the Russian Embassy London has been leading the harassment of one of the pregnant women evacuated. They claim she is a 'crisis actor' and other vile things, thankfully Twitter has removed the worst. There has been a concerted harassment campaign from Russia as a result, with her social media inundated.

The Guardian has a very nice, no gore write up: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/twitter-removes-russian-embassy-tweet-on-mariupol-bombing

She is actually a beauty blogger from Mariupol, and a very pregnant one. So her receiving maternity care is...pretty understandable.

I would urge anyone who sees this sort of stuff circulating online to report and challenge it. Syria suffered from chemical weaponry attacks, you can (but probably shouldn't) see the raw footage yourself online, but these propagandists successfully sowed doubt throughout the hard right and hard left in the west. Please let's do everything we can to stop the lies spreading this time.

Without wanting to go off on a tangent, there is one particular case of Russian 'fake news' bullying tactics that this reminds me of. James Le Measurer, Co founder of the White Helmets an organisation that was first response in some of the worst bomb incidents in Syria. The Russians and Assad's social media trolls absolutely wreaked havoc on their reputation insinuating that they were staging these events even setting off bombs themselves. It was appalling how they targeted relentlessly James and his team- there is a great podcast on bbc sounds called intrigue about it.

Russia has form of shaping a narrative to cover up their human rights atrocities. My fear is that they are driving a social media campaign of chemical weapons to justify or cover up their own use of them.

[quote WellThatsMeScrewed]@WhatsGoingOn2022

Thanks for the ongoing updates and to the other regular posters @Aristalese and @DownNative

The situation is just desperate and I’m so cross at Boris & co for moving so slowly on the visa situation. What possible excuse could they have?[/quote]
On visas: I wish I could say this is a shock, I really do. This is how the Home Office operates, with equal mixtures of cruelty and incompetence.

There are actually still Tory MPs who take grave issue with the government providing refugee help. Daniel Kawczynski has deleted a tweet saying something along the lines of 'let Poland deal with them', Sir Edward Leigh said they had done their bit taking Eastern Europeans already. And this is a comparatively positive response to what we've seen from Tory MPs when compared to Syria or Afghanistan. While public opinions supports Ukrainian refugees I've not seen this broken down by age and profile, but support is likely concentrated in younger, more liberal, likely labour seats.

YouGov polling shows 76% of the public support Britain taking Ukrainian refugees, but if you actually break down the numbers actually only 15% are saying this should be hundreds of thousands rather than a couple of hundred or a couple of thousands. It's interesting to consider the use of the term 'virtue signalling' by right-wing commentators in this context: what could be more 'virtue signalling' than one of the richest countries on earth parading around their few hundred refugees while much poorer neighbours host hundreds of thousands?

So public statements from the Prime Minister should be taken with a barrel of salt when parts of the Tory party are moving against helping Ukrainian refugees and the Home Office is helping block it. Thankfully in the last few days public pressure has been to much and they've folded on many aspects of this. Which again is not a political shock, this government is known for U turns, in quite extraordinary numbers. If you don't think that statement is correct, please do check out the Institute for Government's work on the area!

Interestingly, this is a bit of a barney going on between Priti Patel and Ireland over this. As Ireland shares a border with NI that has no checks and people can sometimes pass through to mainland Britain (technically not on paper, but often in reality), Ukrainian refugees with family in the UK have been going that way. For background, Ireland said it would remove all requirements for Ukrainians, and did so before the EU scheme was announced. Ireland currently has around three times as many Ukrainians as the Home Office have given visas to, despite the difference in size of the countries. So the Home Secretary was quite roundly told to do one:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukraine-russia-ireland-patel-refugees-b2032329.html

And on some of the families Ireland has taken to date: they have taken a number of people with cancer and helped to provide them continuity of care, including this adorable 5 year old with leukaemia:
www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/we-lost-everything-ukrainian-mother-arrives-with-son-5-who-has-leukaemia-1.4815688

This is not to deny that there has also been a lot of incompetence at play too. Sometimes with the Home Office it can be genuinely hard to tell which one is the issue. They failed to do very basic things, like their visa system required both parents to apply for a child (despite the men staying in Ukraine), the system was set up to only allow the narrowest of criteria so some relatives would get stuck elsewhere. You had to go through the points based system like you were an economic migrant (hence that awful moment when the Minister tweeted about them applying for seasonal fruit picking jobs and visas). The 'centres' they established were inaccessible, secretive, with no available appointments, untrained staff, and limited humanitarian supplies.

But in essence: this is a key policy that the country voted for in 2016. I can't pretend to have any sympathy for it but I'm shocked that the British public are acting like this is a surprise when it's what they voted for, and explicitly so. For example, look at the correlation between voting leave and opinions against immigration:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html

@NewYearEveryYear

Hi all, and *@WhatsGoingOn2022* especially.

First I'd like to thank you for the information you've shared over the past days, just having a little more insight, has taken the edge off my concern about all-out World War. Though that doesn't make the human atrocities in Ukraine any easier to bear.

Today it feels like the situation is escalating again, after a few days of feeling more stable (dire, but stable).

Do you have any thoughts or insights into what happens next if Russia use chemical warfare in Ukraine?

Will NATO be forced to act, will there be an escalation, or sanctions and diplomatic measures continue?

Unfortunately NATO have not seen fit to draw any strong lines on the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. You may remember that Obama did this for Syria, then when the red line was crossed, Russia got away with it.

The fact that NATO have basically ruled out intervention, and the US has ruled out providing fighter jets, suggests in the bluntest of terms that the current policy is to sit back and watch. I have seen unconfirmed reports that Russian soldiers and trucks captured in the last day or two have had gas masks in with their supplies. Russia's propaganda has clearly been building up for an incident.

I truly don't know if NATO will do anything more were that to happen. I absolutely think they should-not advocating direct intervention but I sincerely hope they are communicating to Russia that those fighter jets and next round of anti-aircraft machinery will be given to Ukraine the second such a line is crossed. I also hope the intransigence of Germany might change, were they to be confronted with the hideous sight of Europeans being gassed for the first time since WWII.

@workisnotawolf

What can the United Nations do if the Russian army use chemical or biological weapons?

Honestly: to put it not very politely, f all. They can investigate and authenticate the incident via an agency (OPCW), and bring it to Security Council. Russia will then deny it happened ('why do Ukrainians keep shooting/bombing/gassing themselves?') and veto it. It could go to General Assembly where Russia don't have a veto, at which point there will be a resolution saying don't do this.

Basically we'll just see the usual Russian bare-faced lies followed by their supporter countries saying the Ukrainians had it coming.

www.opcw.org/work/responding-use-chemical-weapons

(sorry if that is all very dark and depressing BTW)

@Wintersonata

Apparently the EU has voted for sanctions for Poland and Hungary. Presumably this won’t help all the refugees seeking asylum in those countries.

Aristalese covered this well: this is not in any way connected to the Ukraine situation, it's a pre-existing process around fines on member states. To give a bit of background:

If the EU member state of Daffodilia repeatedly refuses to fulfil an EU requirement (let's say it won't stop the dumping of fertiliser in rivers), the EU will impose fines. They can be set or periodic: so let's say you get a fine for every week you continue to not take action. It both punishes the member state and means they have impetus to actually take action and reallocate internal resources to deal with it.

Obviously the PR of this one is terrible timing, and British Brexiteer media has jumped on it.

“While public opinions supports Ukrainian refugees I've not seen this broken down by age and profile, but support is likely concentrated in younger, more liberal, likely labour seats. “

Though you may well be right about the concentration of support coming from the population you suggest, I think that generally public support of Ukrainian refugees in the U.K. will be coming from a wider base than this.

You will see on Mumsnet for example the sense that this support is even racist given it is so much stronger than it has been for refugees from other countries. This suggests that Conservative voting public, and poorer, ‘Red Wall’ voters may be sharing in the feeling of wanting the U.K to offer a welcome and support, and it might well not be just the younger age group feeling this.

A Syrian doctor interviewed on Channel 4 tonight though pointed out that when the initial shock wears off people may revert to ideas such as, ‘They are taking our jobs.’

Do you have links to the unconfirmed reports about equipment linked to chemical attacks?

@WaverleyOwl

I've been following this thread for days, and thank you for taking the time to answer all these questions. It's been fascinating to read, and to follow the links for more information.

I've been generally shying away from news organisations at the moment because everything seems very sensational. I feel I can't trust anything.

I have been listening to Konstantin Kisin on his YouTube channel, Triggernometry, and watching his media appearances.

As someone with a poor understanding of the issues, his take has seemed to be very concise, and has cut through a lot of the political bullshit. He's Russian, has family in Ukraine, and seems very knowledgeable in terms of the differences between Russian and Western psychology.

I was wondering if you had an opinion of his take on everything.

I would be interesting to hear more about what in particular you are thinking news stations are making sensational or that you can't trust? The problem is, what is happening right now is pretty extreme in the context of the last few decades, anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is not really presenting the truth.

Hi @WaverleyOwl: so I know him from comedy and thought he was funny, I can't say I know anything about his political commentary. I wouldn't really take much issue with for example his views in the below (although please if you are looking for quality coverage, do not go to GBN). I was actually very pleasantly surprised thought reading and watching some of his stuff on Ukraine, a lot of his analysis is spot on. You're totally right that he 'gets' the Russian mindset.

Looking through his twitter commentary and clips from him on on QT etc I am a lot more impressed by his commentary than I thought I would be.

While I think listening to Russian voices like his is very important to understand the mindset differences, I wouldn't be going to him to understand the dynamics of specifics like Russia-Chinese relations, NATO's opinions, the defence situation, etc. 100% he will help you understand the Russian mindset, a lot less so will he help you understand the actual intricacies of security and foreign policy. He's also coming from a very specific perspective in the context of British politics.

I think Kisin is right to call Russia a 'hungry wolf' when it comes to its expansionist plans. It's helpful for a lot of people in the west to hear directly from Russians that they find the idea of him being nervous about NATO hilarious. I do think he is absolutely correct that the west's inward distraction and lack of attention to world dynamics is a major part of how Putin was emboldened.

I also like how strongly he makes the point that this is fundamentally something that Russians still broadly support, in the history of Russia this is not an aberration. He's totally right to highlight the completely different systems of government and how naive the west often is when it discusses Russia. And yes I did chuckle at 'this is Russia-he won't be replaced by Nick Clegg.'

He is also accurate on much of how Ukrainians see the UK's role in their security, he's been supportive of Oz Katerji (I have a lot of time for his coverage from Ukraine). Britain played an early and important part in helping Ukraine secure themselves militarily.

I don't agree with his opinions on immigration and refugees. Personally I think Europe should share costs and logistics on this, as well as provide support for Ukrainians to go to places they have links in a wider way than the current scheme. Many will choose Eastern European countries over Britain, but they should have the option if it is a better fit.

I watched this clip of his BBC QT appearance:

Konstantin is definitely on the cynical end of things when it comes to the success of sanctions and the extent of Putin's control vs the possibility of internal resistance. I don't necessarily disagree however I go between positions on this. In reality it's very 'nothing, and all at once.' I don't think anyone can make a firm prediction either way. If history teaches you anything it's that watershed moments are rarely when you expect them to be, or when they rationally should be. The Arab Spring happened due to a single act of protest over police corruption.

I think he is very correct on the Russian leadership's attitude to human life, and the lack of care for its value. He is right to highlight how the moral framework and care from Russian leadership is very different. This central point does much to demonstrate just quite how out of touch many western commentators are on this.

I also think he was right in his response to the SNP's lady's discussion of nuclear weapons. Ukraine was invaded in part because they no longer have the nuclear deterrent, why anyone sensible would think now is the moment for this I just can't understand. Calling her asinine and absurd was quite right. If we want to discuss nuclear disarmament I'm happy to do some separate posts on that.

If you want to read and watch one expert who is calm but absolutely knowledgeable: I would look out for Lawrence Freedman personally. He's not a comedian but his knowledge of Ukraine is impeccable! I thought the BBC QT Ukraine special was actually very good.

Also I know Kisin has done some work with Matt Zarb-Cousins too. I will tell you now that I have zero time for ZC unless we are talking gambling reform.

Russia has form of shaping a narrative to cover up their human rights atrocities. My fear is that they are driving a social media campaign of chemical weapons to justify or cover up their own use of them.

That's precisely what is going to happen. And indeed this is what their usual methods and propaganda are. This is why it's vital not to accept what they're saying, verify it, think critically.

I wake up every day expecting to see the news of chemical weapons being used against the civilians and I can't express the horror these people must be facing. There are 400k people cut off from food, water, gas, electricity, TV channels and safe humanitarian escape corridors in Mariupol. Now they've destroyed their hospitals and killed or injured children, babies and women in labour. You also have to remember March in Ukraine is not like March in the UK, the temperatures are below zero and there's snow in parts of Ukraine. I hate to say this but this is only going one way, and in my assessment, Kyiv and its people will be the next target.

Bookmarking

Someone asked a question earlier whether this is the worst humanitarian crisis of the 2000s (I believe that was the question?). It is the worst in Europe, yes. And it has a potential of becoming absolutely huge, Ukraine is a 40-million people nation.

Latest news, Warsaw accepted over 300k people in the last fortnight, with its own population of around 2.5m+. Schools and nurseries there organised themselves to accept more than a thousand of new Ukrainian children every day. And this is just the beginning.

@ScrollingLeaves

“While public opinions supports Ukrainian refugees I've not seen this broken down by age and profile, but support is likely concentrated in younger, more liberal, likely labour seats. “

Though you may well be right about the concentration of support coming from the population you suggest, I think that generally public support of Ukrainian refugees in the U.K. will be coming from a wider base than this.

You will see on Mumsnet for example the sense that this support is even racist given it is so much stronger than it has been for refugees from other countries. This suggests that Conservative voting public, and poorer, ‘Red Wall’ voters may be sharing in the feeling of wanting the U.K to offer a welcome and support, and it might well not be just the younger age group feeling this.

A Syrian doctor interviewed on Channel 4 tonight though pointed out that when the initial shock wears off people may revert to ideas such as, ‘They are taking our jobs.’

I hope so, I sincerely do. I would be interested to see more detailed polling in the coming days. The thing is at the moment in the UK it's words not actions (NOT due to the public but the Home Office) so it's really hard to tell. I've seen all over MumsNet frankly the kind of posts I was expecting: 'oh I would but we like having a spare room' or 'oh but they'd probably want someone who cooks instead', 'oh I have children so I wouldn't want another woman in my house' etc. Which doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that huge numbers are actually going to take action. But I really really do hope I am wrong.

And compare that to what Poles are doing right now, or to the scenes from Berlin:

twitter.com/Thomas_Sparrow/status/1499632816186871809

@MistySkiesAfterRain

Do you have links to the unconfirmed reports about equipment linked to chemical attacks?

Nothing specially on equipment at this point, just unconfirmed reports of some gas masks being uncovered in captured vehicles the last day or so.

A RUSI Fellow who specialise in chemical warfare is working on collating these at present: if you dig through the rubbish and spam you can see some on this page:
twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1501878934123724801

What he is particularly looking for is evidence of the condition of masks and if they have filters, to try to gauge if they are seriously intended for that purpose or not.
twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1501960441110712320

this is also making the rounds, allegedly captured today:
twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1501989636159287300

Gas masks would be most relevant if we were looking at an attack in an area with Russian presence. Less relevant if we are thinking e.g. Kyiv.

There are different ways such an attack could theoretically take place, this has some coverage of attacks from planes in Syria:
abcnews.go.com/International/us-releases-flight-path-plane-syria-chemical-attack/story?id=46651125

There was some predictable and disheartening comments about refugees on another thread today. One poster was insisting that we can't have refugees as we have a problem with homelessness and another worried her child wouldn't be able to see a dentist or get their preferred school place. These posters felt the refugees should go to the first safe country.
There was such a lack of perspective of what we at stake for these people and how important that having been through that trauma you can go somewhere where you have some kind of network or can speak the language. I was glad to see that the comments did seem to draw a considerable backlash. There can be a very mean minded inward looking mentality here, I guess it comes from living in such a safe country surrounded by water rather than sharing land boarders. To me supporting the refugees is something can we can and must do.

sorry for the long copy and paste - this has not gained traction on the other thread I thought somoene may have thoughts here?

Has anyone looked into this more:

I am no supporter of Pirates who have plundered Russias wealth and buggerd off after doing deals with the devil BUT, surely this situation is more nuanced?

"Roman Abramovich has accepted an offer from Ukraine to help negotiate a “peaceful resolution” to the Russian invasion, Jewish News can reveal"

"The spokesperson told Jewish News: “I can confirm Roman Abramovich was contacted by the Ukrainian side for support in achieving a peaceful resolution, and that he has been trying to help ever since

“I can confirm that the Ukrainian side have been trying to find someone in Russian willing to help them in finding a peaceful resolution. They are connected to Mr Abramovich through the Jewish community and reached out to him for help. Mr Abramovich has been trying to mobilise support for a peaceful resolution ever since.

From Wiki

Family

Abramovich's family is Jewish. His mother, Irina Vasilievna Abramovich (née Mikhailenko), was a music teacher who died when Roman was 1 year old.[9] His father, Aron (Arkady) Abramovich Leibovich (1937−1969), worked in the economic council of the Komi ASSR.[10]

Roman's maternal grandparents were Vasily Mikhailenko and Faina Borisovna Grutman, both born in Ukraine. It was in Saratov in the early days of World War II that Roman's grandmother on the maternal side, Faina Borisovna Grutman, fled from Ukraine. Irina was then three years old.[11]

Roman's paternal grandparents, Nachman Leibovich and Toybe (Tatyana) Stepanovna Abramovich, were Belarusian Jews.[11] They lived in Belarus and, after the revolution,[which?] moved to Tauragė, Lithuania,[12][13][14] with the Lithuanian spelling of the family name being Abramavičius.

In 1940, the Soviet Union annexed Lithuania. Just before the Nazi German attack on the USSR, the Soviets "cleared the anti-Soviet, criminal and socially dangerous element" with whole families being sent to Siberia. Abramovich's grandparents were separated when deported. The father, mother and children – Leib, Abram and Aron (Arkady) – were in different cars. Many of the deportees died in the camps. Among them was the grandfather of Abramovich. Nachman Leibovich died in 1942 in the NKVD camp in the settlement of Resheti, Krasnoyarsk Territory.[11]

Having lost both parents before the age of 4,[12] Abramovich was raised by relatives and spent much of his youth in the Komi Republic in northern Russia. Abramovich is the Chairman of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Russia, and a trustee of the Moscow Jewish Museum.[15]

Abramovich decided to establish a forest of some 25,000 new and rehabilitated trees, in memory of Lithuania's Jews who were murdered in the Holocaust, plus a virtual memorial and tribute to Lithuanian Jewry (Seed a Memory) enabling people from all over the world to commemorate their ancestors' personal stories by naming a tree and including their name in the memorial.[16]

^^ I dont know much about him, today he has been directly accused of washing Putins money. Yes sanction him, yes his vague offer to give money to the war was stupid but do we actually understand his views? His daughter has actually been one of the children speaking out agaisnt Putin.

However, with this background doesnt anyone think he may actually be useful? His heritage is Jewish - Ukrainian?

Also what about his ex wife Dasha? The daughter of an oil barron also of Jewish heritage?

Abromovitch has had quite a long time to do something useful.