Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Hi all, and @WhatsGoingOn2022 especially.

First I'd like to thank you for the information you've shared over the past days, just having a little more insight, has taken the edge off my concern about all-out World War. Though that doesn't make the human atrocities in Ukraine any easier to bear.

Today it feels like the situation is escalating again, after a few days of feeling more stable (dire, but stable).

Do you have any thoughts or insights into what happens next if Russia use chemical warfare in Ukraine?

Will NATO be forced to act, will there be an escalation, or sanctions and diplomatic measures continue?

[quote WhatsGoingOn2022]And further on chemical weapons: how Russia is trying to claim Ukraine having biology research within its country means they are actually a US chemical and biological weaponry lab:

twitter.com/1BJDJ/status/1501602028128280585[/quote]
They’re going hit Kyiv hoping they can take zelensky out with them along with everyone else there, including all the people who’ve made it there today. Also possibly explains why they’ve let those poor people make that journey when they’ve been ignoring previous promises of cease fires. More people there the better in putins book. I hate feeling so powerless.

I’m showing my ignorance here I think, my knowledge of history, even very recent history is rubbish. Some reporters and broadcasters keep saying this is the worst humanitarian crisis since ww2. Is that accurate? Is it really worse or is that just that it’s closer to home so more attention is being paid to it?

Posting this without much comment as I'm too upset: a few days ago we had Russians go mad for IKEA, today we have Russians flock to Victoria's Secret before it closes for good.

Because to a substantial part of the public, getting a lacy thong matters more than the murder of your neighbours.

twitter.com/RuFailedState/status/1501650947059109892

And IKEA for those who missed it:
twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1500030349467951107

What can the United Nations do if the Russian army use chemical or biological weapons?

Sorry, will get back to this thread this evening! Just need a break from everything for a few hours, getting a bit too much.

It's the petal mines plus the maternity hospital plus the chemical weapons threat on top of each other. None of it a shock (it's Syria all over again) but I just barely have words at this point. The utter barbarity of the Russian army. The fact they have done this again and again and again.

Anyway. Will return with strength and a sound mind.

I've been following this thread for days, and thank you for taking the time to answer all these questions. It's been fascinating to read, and to follow the links for more information.

I've been generally shying away from news organisations at the moment because everything seems very sensational. I feel I can't trust anything.

I have been listening to Konstantin Kisin on his YouTube channel, Triggernometry, and watching his media appearances.

As someone with a poor understanding of the issues, his take has seemed to be very concise, and has cut through a lot of the political bullshit. He's Russian, has family in Ukraine, and seems very knowledgeable in terms of the differences between Russian and Western psychology.

I was wondering if you had an opinion of his take on everything.

Just another post to say thank you for the reasoned, clear and concise views on here. It has really helped me gain a little understanding

Yes, thanks from me too. It’s really interesting.

Thank you and please do look after your mental health.

Thanks for the time and effort put into the posts, so helpful and incisive. Look after yourself, OP.

It really is all so upsetting. Take care OP.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

“Hawkins001
www.plenglish.com/news/2022/03/07/us-media-confirm-manufacture-of-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/“

WhatsGoingOn2022 said:
“Christ. Thanks for finding this.

Yes this is Russia trying to lay the groundworks for the gassing of civilians. Obviously (I hope it goes without saying for anyone planning to read this link above) this is Kremlin propaganda and again-at risk of sounding like a broken record-straight from the Syria playbook.

The clip that they are trying to use as the basis as this is a quote from US Under-Secretary of State about Ukraine having biological research facilities, and being worried about the Russians seizing them. Obviously Ukraine would have such facilities, which would have materials that Russia could make use of. The worry would be Russia doing so specifically to stage an 'accident'.

twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1501313109520175104“

Obviously Ukraine would have such facilities, which would have materials that Russia could make use of

I was wondering why you said here that obviously Ukraine would have such facilities?

Also, I just tried to Google chemical and biological warfare and Ukraine did not come up on the lists.

Given that Russia would seem to have very advanced expertise given their poisoning predilections and their chemical agents were used in Syria, why would they not just use their own rather than make use of what they randomly find in Ukraine?

I am not meaning to goad or challenge you here, I just don’t quite understand those points.

Clearly, however, I do see what you are saying about Russia using the presence of these facilities in Ukraine as an excuse to launch a chemical attack.

[quote ScrollingLeaves]**@WhatsGoingOn2022

“Hawkins001
www.plenglish.com/news/2022/03/07/us-media-confirm-manufacture-of-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/“

WhatsGoingOn2022 said:
“Christ. Thanks for finding this.

Yes this is Russia trying to lay the groundworks for the gassing of civilians. Obviously (I hope it goes without saying for anyone planning to read this link above) this is Kremlin propaganda and again-at risk of sounding like a broken record-straight from the Syria playbook.

The clip that they are trying to use as the basis as this is a quote from US Under-Secretary of State about Ukraine having biological research facilities, and being worried about the Russians seizing them. Obviously Ukraine would have such facilities, which would have materials that Russia could make use of. The worry would be Russia doing so specifically to stage an 'accident'.

twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1501313109520175104“

Obviously Ukraine would have such facilities, which would have materials that Russia could make use of

I was wondering why you said here that obviously Ukraine would have such facilities?

Also, I just tried to Google chemical and biological warfare and Ukraine did not come up on the lists.

Given that Russia would seem to have very advanced expertise given their poisoning predilections and their chemical agents were used in Syria, why would they not just use their own rather than make use of what they randomly find in Ukraine?

I am not meaning to goad or challenge you here, I just don’t quite understand those points.

Clearly, however, I do see what you are saying about Russia using the presence of these facilities in Ukraine as an excuse to launch a chemical attack.[/quote]
I'm aware the OP is taking a bit of a break and am by no means an expert but I assume what is meant is that you don't have to be trying to manufacture biological weapons to have labs which contain equipment or samples which could be repurposed for nefarious purposes, or at a minimum misrepresented as being for testing chemical and biological weapons.

E.g. this would in all likelihood be much too small an example but every undergrad cell biology course will involve using cyanide pretty regularly because it stops respiration. Neurotoxins are a regular feature in biochemistry research - I remember one study conducted at my old university where they concluded that the oldest members of staff (who had been exposed for the longest and had taken the fewest safety precautions) had never damage to the point that they couldn't feel needless being stabbed into their fingertips. Obviously those are two fairly minor examples but I see no reason that there might not be other more serious examples at many universities including in Ukraine.

Hopefully when @WhatsGoingOn2022 has had a chance to take a breather and come back she will be able to add to the above or point out where I have misunderstood!

Take care OP, you have been very generous sharing your knowledge and thoughts on this thread. It has been so helpful.

Place marking

Yes thank you for taking the time to post such detailed information.

Putin is like a cornered rat- I fear that he is going to resort to using weaponry which will cause even more devastation (if that's even possible) than now. All to save face. The question is will we let him? I don't even know if I want to know the answer!

Thanks for this thread, OP. Take a longer break if you need to, you've been immersed and it is overwhelming.

Place marking

Take care OP. See you this evening.

I was wondering why you said here that obviously Ukraine would have such facilities?
I think what was meant is that every biological lab
Ukraine is home to a few quite good universities with biology / biomedical / medical programmes, both vocational and research. Labs associated with these faculties are almost guaranteed to handle dangerous bacteria or viruses.
For example, Russian news specifically mentioned that Ukraine is into weaponising dysentery as a biological WMD, as there's evidence that some facilities were found to be "dealing with it". Well, every local hospital is "dealing" with dysentery on a regular basis.

Apparently the EU has voted for sanctions for Poland and Hungary. Presumably this won’t help all the refugees seeking asylum in those countries.

@Wintersonata what do you mean by that?

@Wintersonata

Apparently the EU has voted for sanctions for Poland and Hungary. Presumably this won’t help all the refugees seeking asylum in those countries.

This was a long time coming move and unrelated to Russia-Ukraine war.

Both Poland and Hungary have long been asking for it to happen frankly. This is because the current governments (right leaning) have been making moves in an attempt to politicise and influence the judiciary which is, of course, indrpendent. This is in fact a very positive development as inevitably it will lead both governments to sort themselves out swiftly IMO, exactly for the reason you've mentioned, money. I can't speak for Hungary and Orban seems to be more right leaning than any Polish government ever would. But certainly in Poland the pro-EU support is at all time high and the criticisms of the Law and Justice party have been very loud for several years now. The crackdown on lunatics within that party is thankfully coming (not all are lunatics, but some are). That's a topic for a dedicated thread! But don't think it's a bad thing, re EU sanctions. Again, context is everything.

Oh right, you are not talking about new sanctions now?