Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

It is unfathomable how anyone can do such a thing, it's utterly evil. I agree that we surely have to do more.

@forinborin just seen something that relates to your question: Konstantin Sonin is estimating that some 200,000 Russians have fled in there last 10 days. He has some evidence and stats on his page:

mobile.twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1501136362002546688

@Aristalese thank you for clarifying that, very helpful.

I was wondering what we're supposed to call the attackers? It doesn't feel right to say 'The Russians' when there are so many decent Russian people risking their lives to protest the war - what are this 'group of baddies' called?

like Farage on the right and the far left types (e.g. Stop the War)
Why don't you describe Farage as far right? I've seen you use the term far left a couple of times.

I've always characterised this war as Putin's war, I had no idea that it had as much support in Russia as you suggest and so really, it might be more accurate to say that it IS Russia's war?

@SuperSocks

I was wondering what we're supposed to call the attackers? It doesn't feel right to say 'The Russians' when there are so many decent Russian people risking their lives to protest the war - what are this 'group of baddies' called?

The Russian Army?

@Kendodd

like Farage on the right and the far left types (e.g. Stop the War) Why don't you describe Farage as far right? I've seen you use the term far left a couple of times.

Oh sorry! Wasn't intentional. Farage is definitely far right, won't deny that. Thankfully less mainstream now but too cosy for comfort with what most would consider just the plain old 'right'. British right wing politics have been heavily polluted by far right voices for quite some time. Won't go into contentious Brexit-related issues too much on this thread but it's far from a conspiracy theory to say much of this has been directly Kremlin-supported/funded.

I think (depressingly) the 'far right' goes from Farage to so so so far to the right (e.g. full on neo Nazis, the BNP, etc) so Farage can almost seem a somewhat acceptable face of that, to those who lean this way.

But you're absolutely correct, decent voices on the right have made some efforts post-Brexit to distance themselves from Farage.

To be fair, if a government of country A sends its army in and invades country B, the world ordinarily refers to it as a war between country A and country B. I think most people realise that some of the people from country A support it and some don't, it's not new or unusual.

Special economic operations are causing the layoff of thousands of workers in Russia. This will only get worse.

thehiu.com/russian-automaker-known-for-its-cold-war-resilience-the-idles-factories/

Far right and far left both meet in the middle of their extremities hence we had farage and corbyn both speaking on the same page about Putin last week.

I agree re Merkel, Ive seen some posters elsewhere say Putin adored her and would never have done this on her watch. I feel however her watch helped to set this up.

Russia is tweeting about labs in Ukraine trying to send false flags about chemical weapons. I don't know how to copy the tweet from Russian embassy but it is a worrying development. They have used them in conflicts before.
I am incensed over it all but feel powerless. The thread has been excellent by the way.

@CowsAreNotGreen

The trouble with that is it doesn't differentiate between the young conscripted lads who are just bewildered cannon fodder and the nasty bastards up top who come up with ideas about blowing up children's hospitals!

Yes the chemical aspect is bloodying awful.
Putin's own daughter is supposedly a paediatric specialist doctor?
Educated, caring for children?

@Obviouslynotallthere

Russia is tweeting about labs in Ukraine trying to send false flags about chemical weapons. I don't know how to copy the tweet from Russian embassy but it is a worrying development. They have used them in conflicts before. I am incensed over it all but feel powerless. The thread has been excellent by the way.

Most of the training when I was in the forces was for chemical warfare. These weapons have a significantly more valuable strategic use for Russia because they do not damage infrastructure making the country easier to occupy and exploit later.

@SuperSocks

I was wondering what we're supposed to call the attackers? It doesn't feel right to say 'The Russians' when there are so many decent Russian people risking their lives to protest the war - what are this 'group of baddies' called?

I use putin rather than Russians. I know some Russians agree with him, I know some of his fighters will be very happy with what they’re doing. I also know some of his fighters will only be doing it because theyre being threatened with or actually shot by their commanders. They’re all following putons orders through choice or coercion or threat so it’s his war and I’ll direct my blame and criticism at him, much the same way I say ww2 was hitlers choice rather than Germany though I’m sure many Germans agreed with hitler at the time because it seems no matter how extreme your politics you will always get followers. It’s scary how easy nasty people get to be in positions of power.

When you make a new thread can you please add the link to this one, or call it part 2 so it's easily found? Thanks!

WARNING

Have been out for a few hours but am catching up on the situation with the children's hospital in Mariupol. I haven't seen confirmation of what kind of bomb it was, there are differing reports. Clearly something big but looks like there is a lot of information still to come out.

For those interested in the specifics of how this happened: I'm going to link to some information on Russia's use of dumb missiles (ie use of unguided missiles) in civilian areas, plus to Russia's past use of bombing hospitals as a tactic in war. Suffice to say it's unlikely to be some huge shock and tragedy, it's a part of their strategy. What we could call the 'Syria playbook.'

What they did in Syria: there are allegations that when civilians were asked by the UN for a list of hospitals (to ensure Russia would know to avoid them) they actually were entered as coordinates for bombs:
www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-hospitals.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian–Syrian_hospital_bombing_campaign

Dumb bombs and their use in Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/russia-may-be-using-unguided-dumb-bombs-ukraine-war-us-official-2022-03-09/

Links to some photos that show the situation in Mariupol: some blood but no gore:

mobile.twitter.com/penshark/status/1501605662077378562

mobile.twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1501617934891896836

(I believe the mass grave is from Mariupol but not from this specific incident)

mobile.twitter.com/alexmazuka/status/1501607221280530439

@Littlepaws18

When you make a new thread can you please add the link to this one, or call it part 2 so it's easily found? Thanks!

Ok yes perfect! Thanks :)

@Obviouslynotallthere

Russia is tweeting about labs in Ukraine trying to send false flags about chemical weapons. I don't know how to copy the tweet from Russian embassy but it is a worrying development. They have used them in conflicts before. I am incensed over it all but feel powerless. The thread has been excellent by the way.

Yes this has been in Russian propaganda on tv for the last day or two, it shows quite how desperate they are getting to create some form of justification. Their presenters tried to claim Ukraine was preparing chemical weapons and nukes to use on Russia.

Interestingly today they have finally admitted to sending conscripts into Ukraine. Probably due to the fact that thousands were killed or captured, and the line would no longer hold. They are resorting to more outrageous lies to cover up the other lies being disproved.

Within the last few hours: the tweet from Russia you are specifically talking about I think is this one below? Claiming Ukraine has brought in 80 tons of ammonia, which I think we can basically translate as 'Russia is bringing in ammonia to gas civilians.'

mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1501623178514374664

It looks like it might happen near Kharkiv.

www.plenglish.com/news/2022/03/07/us-media-confirm-manufacture-of-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/

BTW speaking of the Jeremy Corbyn issue: have seen again this clip from a few years ago of him on RT, from when Russia gave Assad chemical weapons to gas his citizens. Assad of course used it, gassed them and then Putin claimed they were clearly just gassing themselves. Corbyn says on RT that 'the Russian evidence presented today appears much stronger' than the evidence of Assad having done this. While the little banner on the bottom tells us about the Syrians civilians gassing themselves.

mobile.twitter.com/Der_Parrot/status/1501481379615367172

[quote Hawkins001]www.plenglish.com/news/2022/03/07/us-media-confirm-manufacture-of-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine/[/quote]
Christ. Thanks for finding this.

Yes this is Russia trying to lay the groundworks for the gassing of civilians. Obviously (I hope it goes without saying for anyone planning to read this link above) this is Kremlin propaganda and again-at risk of sounding like a broken record-straight from the Syria playbook.

The clip that they are trying to use as the basis as this is a quote from US Under-Secretary of State about Ukraine having biological research facilities, and being worried about the Russians seizing them. Obviously Ukraine would have such facilities, which would have materials that Russia could make use of. The worry would be Russia doing so specifically to stage an 'accident'.

twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1501313109520175104

And further on chemical weapons: how Russia is trying to claim Ukraine having biology research within its country means they are actually a US chemical and biological weaponry lab:

twitter.com/1BJDJ/status/1501602028128280585

@WhatsGoingOn2022

Thanks for the ongoing updates and to the other regular posters @Aristalese and @DownNative

The situation is just desperate and I’m so cross at Boris & co for moving so slowly on the visa situation. What possible excuse could they have?